“Historically, all incumbents with an approval rating of 50% or higher have won reelection, and presidents with approval ratings much lower than 50% have lost,” noted Jeffrey Jones of Gallup four years ago. See here:
https://news.gallup.com/poll/311825/presidential-job-approval-related-reelection-historically.aspx
37.4% is well below that 50% threshold.
Perhaps he knows the margin of cheat?
“Steal like their lives depended on it, Democrats will.” — Yoda
538 is just not very good at it. Remember that in 2016 they had Hillary a 96% probability of winning. Right up till election day.
It’s simple. They know that Joe Biden is using the “special sauce”.
“Something Fishy” ...
Does this mean that the projection model developers are full of ‘CARP’???
The Economist gives Trump a 66% chance based on a much more robust election forecast model that they update daily here:
https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/prediction-model/president
I don’t think they are in on the steal. Try listening to the accompanying podcast. https://abcnews.go.com/538/video/538s-new-forecast-2024-election-toss-111002607
Historical polling error, approval rating, economic variables, State level history/factors, regression to the mean, and time to election are all taken into account.
They have eight “swing states” that they break out in particular-—from Minnesota to North Carolina—and while Trump is leading in enough right now to make him a heavy favourite if the election were held today (around 80%), his lead in the bulk is narrow enough that if historical polling error this far out is taken into account along with regression to the mean that it offsets Biden’s awful popularity. If the same margin is maintained into September, things will shift.
Their “snake”, the outcome if the model is right on every single state, has Trump carrying Arizona, barely, but falling short in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Nebraska 2, which, in that order, are the most likely, according to the model, of the remaining Biden votes to fall to Trump. If any of these three states go his way, while holding the rest that they have Trump at least nominally favoured in, Trump wins. I suspect Nebraska 2 flipping leads to a tie.
1) Lies
2) Damnable Lies
3) Statistics
and now a new category
4) Liberal talking points
Ignore everything else, it is ENTIRELY about Pennsylvania, at the moment they have Biden winning that by a nose, even though Trump is ahead in the polls. This is just how their model works.
DEMOCRATS CHEAT!! PERIOD!