Florida, Wisconsin, Nevada, annd some others all have abortion state constitutional amendments on the ballot. That could be a problem. It certainly has been every other time they’ve been on ballots in every state including deep red ones. I know many use the head in the sand scenario or scoff at such things. But the trend has not been good. Facts can be explained away though by many here.
Indeed, it hasn't. But Trump hasn't been on any of those ballots either.
There WILL be people in 2024 who vote for both abortion and Trump. In fact, some of these voters may feel more comfortable voting for Trump knowing that abortion rights will be enshrined in their state's constitution.
And for good and bad, Trump brings out voters who sit out all of the other elections when he's not on the ballot.
It's really hard to tell.