The Kremlin and Russian propagandists overwhelmingly attempted to frame Kirillov’s assassination as an unprovoked terrorist act, rather than a consequence of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and Kirillov’s responsibility for Russian chemical weapons attacks and information operations against Ukraine. Petrenko announced that Sledkom designated Kirillov’s and Polokarpov’s deaths as a terrorist act, and Russian officials such as Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) Spokesperson Maria Zakharova emphasized Kirillov’s prominent role in spreading numerous (false) narratives about Ukraine's and NATO's alleged use of chemical and biological weapons.[5] Kirillov spread several false narratives over the years, such as nonsensically claiming that the United States established “biolabs” in Ukraine and other countries around Russia and that the Pentagon deliberately destroyed the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (KHPP) to spread contagious diseases via insects.[6] The Kremlin notably used the false claims of Ukrainian use of biolabs as a pretext for Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.[7] Federation Council Committee of Defense and Security Member Vladimir Chizhov among other Russian officials and propagandists claimed that Western and Ukrainian security officials hated Kirillov for “exposing” Western provocations in Russia.[8]
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is increasingly tricking conscripts and civilians into signing military service contracts to fight in Ukraine in an effort to generate more assault forces. Radio Free Europe/ Radio Liberty's Tatar-Bashkir Service Idel Realii shared stories of several Russian conscripts whom Russian authorities coerced into signing military contracts or had their military contracts falsified.[89] Idel Realii reported that a Russian lieutenant killed a conscript, and relatives of the conscript claimed that he was killed after Russian recruiters unsuccessfully attempted to coerce the conscript into signing a military service contract.
Moscow City is reportedly failing to meet its conscription quotas for the Fall 2024 conscription cycle, which may indicate that the Russian military still faces problems with draft dodging despite increasing emphasis on military-patriotic education and adoption of stricter conscription measures. Moscow City Military Recruitment Head Maksim Loktev announced on December 17 that Moscow completed its conscription processes two weeks earlier than expected and claimed that Moscow fully met its conscription goals as a result of growing patriotic sentiment among Russian young men.[90] Russian lawyer of the “Movement of Conscious Objectors” Artem Klyga stated that conscription is ongoing in Moscow and that Moscow is unlikely to have met its quota of conscripting 8,000 men.[91]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-17-2024
Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov heavily inflated alleged statistics about Russian territorial gains in 2024. Gerasimov claimed on December 18 that Russian forces seized roughly 4,500 square kilometers in 2024.[8] ISW has observed confirmation that Russian forces have only seized 3,306 square kilometers in 2024, however. Gerasimov’s exaggerated figures contrast with Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov’s more accurate statements to the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) board meeting on December 16. Belousov claimed, for example, that Russian forces’ average daily rate of advance is about 30 square kilometers.[9] ISW observed geolocated evidence to assess that Russian forces advanced at a rate of roughly 27.96 square kilometers per day in November 2024.[10] Belousov also claimed that Russian forces have seized roughly 99 percent of Luhansk Oblast, 70 percent of Donetsk Oblast, roughly 74 percent of Zaporizhia Oblast, and roughly 76 percent of Kherson Oblast.[11] ISW assesses that Russian forces occupy roughly 99 percent of Luhansk Oblast, 66 percent of Donetsk Oblast, and 73 percent of Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts each.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is increasingly tricking conscripts into signing military service contracts to fight in Ukraine likely in an effort to generate more assault forces and maintain the tempo of Russian offensive operations in Ukraine. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty's Tatar-Bashkir Service Idel Realii reported on December 18 that the parents of Russian conscripts serving in a Russian military unit in Chebarkul, Chelyabinsk Oblast wrote an appeal to submit to Russian President Vladimir Putin's Direct Line engagement on December 19, claiming that the Russian military has coerced and forced their children into signing Russian military service contracts.[79] Russian opposition outlet Mobilization News reported on December 18 that a Russian conscript from Pskov Oblast recently died in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast due to unknown causes.[80]
Ukrainian military observer Petro Chernyk stated on December 18 that Ukrainian forces have damaged and destroyed up to 28 Russian surface ships since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.[83] Chernyk added that Ukrainian forces have damaged and destroyed 10 of the Russian Black Sea Fleet's (BSF) 15 landing ships but that the BSF still has 20 Kalibr cruise missile carriers in service. Chernyk also stated that destroying landing-class ships is particularly important because Russia relies on these ships to transport supplies to occupied Crimea, and Russia is no longer capable of building landing-class ships. Ukrainian Navy Spokesperson Captain Third Rank Dmytro Pletenchuk reported in February 2024 that the BSF had almost 80 pieces of naval combat equipment at the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.[84]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-18-2024