“Russia’s losses in relation to the area of captured territories are growing exponentially.”
Over the last years of the war, we have often come back to discuss this trend.
A big factor, has been the attrition of the old Soviet main combat platforms (jets, helicopters, Armor, Artillery), resulting in lower and lower firepower - transitioning Russian Forces from and Industrial Military, to increasingly, a Light Infantry force.
There is also the loss of skills and experience, transitioning the professional Infantry toward just an armed mob.
There has also been the innovation of the Ukrainian forces (notably drone warfare), and the superiority of Western weapons and tactics.
The expectation is for the trend to continue, and even continue accelerating, as Soviet weapon stockpiles critically run dry in 2025, leaving only raw manpower to make up the shortfall.
In the last month or two, losses of Russian Armor and Artillery have slowed, as personnel losses have surged. This may mark a (long anticipated) turning point, where Russia can no longer maintain full replacement rate for equipment losses, and their fieldable combat power begins declining.
It was kind of the central theme of this thread - counting down Russia’s inherited Soviet stockpile.
So at some point Russian/Nork troops will look like the Chinese in Korea - charging Ma Duces with wooden pitchforks.
I believe the turning point is near. Putler is desperate for a cease fire.