Russia significantly increased its advance on the ground (at high cost) over the last week (75 sq miles), and no sign yet of mud season or snow to slow them down.
Kyiv Independent reports:
“Ukraine faces a “pretty grim” situation in Donetsk Oblast in the east of the country as Russian forces make some of their swiftest advances since the summer of 2022, according to experts and OSINT analysts.
“The last week has been extremely difficult for the Ukrainians — the Russians were able to breach the Ukrainian defenses in various areas,” Emil Kastehelmi, an analyst at the Finland-based Black Bird Group, told the Kyiv Independent.
Russia’s long and grinding campaign in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region has dramatically gained pace in recent days, with Kastehelmi saying Moscow’s forces have advanced “faster than it has been any time after the summer of 2022.”
“So we’re looking at really large movements on the front lines, especially when put into the context of this whole full-scale invasion,” he added.
Russia’s Defense Ministry on Oct. 29 claimed the capture of Selydove, a town close to the key logistics hub of Pokrovsk.
While Kyiv has yet to comment on the situation, experts and OSINT analysts have all but confirmed the town has fallen.
The Deep State OSINT project map based on data from Oct. 28 showed most of Selydove under Russian control, with around a third depicted as a disputed gray zone.
An analysis of Deep State data by the independent Russian news outlet Agentsvo said Russia had taken 196.1 square kilometers (75.7 square miles) during the week of Oct. 20-27.
“The Russian army has not had such a rapid weekly advance since at least the beginning of this year,” it said in a post on Telegram…
…the fall of Selydove would be dire news for Pokrovsk, lying only around 18 kilometers (11 miles) northwest, towards which Russian forces have been inching for the past couple of months…
…”The city of Selydove is now most likely totally lost.”
“That’s the biggest city to fall after Avdiivka in the winter. And it fell in a couple of weeks or so. So it was a quick, quick move.”
According to Kastehelmi, one of the biggest dangers now facing Ukrainian troops is that the positions they are now being forced to fall back to are not as heavily fortified as the positions they’re withdrawing from...
…”Even though the Russians have pushed 10 kilometers in a week, we still haven’t seen something that by definition would be a breakthrough.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin still has a long way to go before achieving his stated goal of taking all of the Donbas, Ukraine’s far eastern coal mining region.
Russia currently occupies all of the Luhansk Oblast, and most of Donetsk Oblast except the last big remaining cities under Ukrainian control, including Pokrovsk, Kostyantynivka to the north, Kramatorsk and Slovyansk further north, and Chasiv Yar to the east.
Russia would have to take an additional 10,000 square kilometers (3,860 square miles) of territory to capture all of the Donbas, which, even at the current increased pace, would take just under a year.
It’s also not been without a heavy cost for Russian forces. Casualties over October may reach around 40,000, Janek Kesselmann, the deputy commander of the Estonian Military Intelligence Center, said on Oct. 25.
But with winter approaching, the uncertainty surrounding next week’s U.S. presidential election and future American weaponry supplies, and Ukraine’s army dealing with its own manpower and morale issues, it’s an especially precarious time for Kyiv.”
North Korea Gaining Modern Combat Experience Fighting Ukraine Is A Big Problem
If thousands of North Korean troops fight Ukraine, the Hermit Kingdom will gain the extremely valuable modern combat experience it badly lacks.
https://www.twz.com/news-features/north-korea-gaining-modern-combat-experience-fighting-ukraine-is-a-big-problem
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Ukraine Strikes Chechnya With Long-Range Drones For The First Time
The Ukrainian long-range attack on the special forces training center has incurred the wrath of Chechen warlord Ramzan Kadyrov.
https://www.twz.com/news-features/ukraine-strikes-chechnya-with-long-range-drones-for-the-first-time
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Here’s What NORAD’s Commander Just Told Us About The Langley AFB Drone Incursions
December’s rash of mysterious drone flights over Langley Air Force Base has changed how the U.S. plans to defend against such threats domestically.
https://www.twz.com/air/heres-what-norads-commander-just-told-us-about-the-langley-afb-drone-incursions
Short answer: Nothing
Reporting From Ukraine:
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https://t.me/RFUEnglish or @RFUEnglish
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The complete transcript.
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[ Russians Try to Outflank Key Stronghold ]
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Today [ Oct 30 ], there are a lot of updates from the Toretsk direction.
Here, the Russians intensified their attacks in the southern part of the city in an attempt to cut off the Ukrainian forces from the ones in the central high-rise district. However, the Russian assault units broke up and bogged down, setting the stage for a powerful Ukrainian counterattack.
The Zabalka district in southern Toretsk holds significant tactical value for the ongoing battle in the city. This district includes a key avenue that stretches toward Russian-held central high-rises, which could serve as an essential secondary logistics route. If secured, this route would allow the Russians to double their troop deployments to the central high-rises, enhancing resupply and reinforcement capabilities for continued operations to seize Toretsk.
Additionally, Russian control of Zabalka would help prevent Ukrainian counterattacks from severing their forces in the city center, solidifying their hold and bolstering the overall offensive.
Earlier, Russian forces achieved minor gains in the northern part of the Zabalka district, motivating them to push forward with further assaults to secure control. To expedite their advance, Russian command deployed a sabotage and reconnaissance group deeper into the Ukrainian-held areas of Zabalka. The Russian fighters encountered minimal resistance, with Ukrainian forces dispersed through much of the district, resulting in a relatively quick advance behind the lines.
The Russian reconnaissance groups concluded that the lack of substantial Ukrainian positions in Zabalka would allow for an efficient Russian assault. However, Ukrainian forces had established their primary defensive positions on the terrikons west of the district and at the nearby coal mine complex.
These terrikons serve as strategic observation points, enabling Ukrainian troops to monitor Russian movements and relay coordinates to artillery and drone units. From these elevated vantage points, along with fortified positions in the coal mine’s high-rise buildings, the Ukrainians effectively control Zabalka without needing to station ground forces directly within the district.
This setup allowed the Ukrainians to detect and eliminate Russian reconnaissance units that ventured deep into Zabalka. Targeted drone and artillery strikes significantly weakened and disrupted the Russian units, bogging them down and preventing them from relaying information to the main Russian forces.
These reconnaissance units, operating in small groups rather than as fully equipped assault teams, were intended to infiltrate, create pressure points, and distract Ukrainian forces, paving the way for the main Russian assault. However, the disrupted Russian units failed to establish the conditions needed for a larger offensive, effectively trapping themselves within the area.
This situation allowed Ukrainian stormtroopers, supported by M113 armored vehicles, to advance into the gray zone occupied by disorganized Russian reconnaissance units. The combination of fire support from the armored vehicles and the effectiveness of the Ukrainian assault teams, left the previously shelled and casualty-sensitive Russian units with no chance to regroup. Consequently, most of the Russian forces in Zabalka were decimated, leading them to abandon their operation and withdraw from the area.
Overall, the Russians tried to mount an advance in the southern part of Toretsk. However, reconnaissance units got bogged down and never provided intel for the main attack, which led to their destruction by a powerful Ukrainian counterattack.
As the Ukrainian counterattack gained momentum, the Russian Air Force was ordered to bombard the Ukrainian positions in the district, as seen in combat footage. This was done in a desperate attempt to disperse and halt the Ukrainian advance, in fear that they might uppercut the Russian forces in the central part of the city, which is very likely the next phase of the Ukrainian counterattack operations.