“The leak of a pair of highly classified U.S. intelligence documents describing recent satellite images of Israeli military preparations for a potential strike on Iran offers a window into the intense American concerns about Israel’s plans. It also has U.S. officials working to understand the size of the improper disclosure.
The two documents were prepared in recent days by the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, which is responsible for analyzing images and information collected by American spy satellites. They began circulating on Friday on the Telegram app and were being discussed by largely pro-Iran accounts.
The documents, which offer interpretations of satellite imagery, provide insight into a potential strike by Israel on Iran in the coming days. Such a strike has been anticipated in retaliation for an Iranian assault earlier this month, which was itself a response to an Israeli attack.
One of the documents is titled “Israel: Air Force Continues Preparations for Strike on Iran,” and describes recent exercises that appeared to rehearse elements of such a strike. The second document details how Israel is shifting the placement of its missiles and weapons in case Iran responded with strikes of its own.
Officials were divided over the seriousness of the leak, which did not appear to reveal any new American capabilities. The documents describe but do not show the satellite images. If no further documents come to light the damage would be limited, some of the officials say — besides revealing, once again, the degree to which the United States spies on one of its closest allies. Other officials say that any exposure of an ally’s war plans is a serious problem.
Officials privately acknowledged that the documents were authentic, although the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment.
The intelligence in the report may reflect only a slice of the information the United States has collected; cyberstrikes or sabotage on the ground in Iran would not be easily seen from American spy satellites. President Biden was asked in Germany on Friday whether he knew when Israel planned to strike and what kind of targets it had chosen. “Yes and yes,” he said, declining to speak on the topic any further.
But his statement seemed to hint that he and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had reached some kind of understanding about what kind of targets would be hit; previously, Mr. Biden called on Israel to avoid Iran’s nuclear sites and its energy facilities. The president has repeatedly raised concerns that if those targets, Iran’s crown jewels, were destroyed, the country would quickly escalate.
U.S. officials said that they did not know from where the documents had been taken, and that they were still hunting for the original source of the leak. But based on previous unauthorized releases, officials said it was most likely a lower-level government employee.
The documents describe satellite photos of an Israeli military exercise on Oct. 15 in preparation for a potential retaliatory strike on Iran. Part of the purpose of the exercise was to practice air-to-air refueling and search-and-rescue operations, according to the intelligence report. The exercise involved a force of a similar size to what Israel used in a strike on Yemen on Sept. 29, the report said.
The documents also discuss Israeli preparations of long-range, air-launched ballistic missiles; air-to-surface missiles; air refueling planes; and other support aircraft. The documents also say Israel was conducting covert surveillance on Iran with drones.
But the officials said the documents were not a comprehensive assessment of what the United States knows about Israeli intentions. The documents, which are dated Oct. 15, represent only what analysts looking at satellite imagery could determine at that time.”
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The complete transcript.
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[ Explosive Gifts Delivered. Russian Plans Derailed ]
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Today [ Oct 20 ], there are a lot of updates from the Toretsk direction.
Here, the Ukrainians intensified their raids and strikes against Russian forces positioned in the central high-rise building district, destroying the residential complex, together with the Russians, and diminishing its tactical value. As powerful Ukrainian attacks in this area are expected to generate advances, Russians decided to switch the focus of fighting in Toretsk to the southern part of the city.
Previously, Ukrainian forces began raiding the high-rise district, with demolition squads destroying entire Russian positions. Combat footage reveals intense fighting in the area, with Ukrainian raids continuing for over a month, leaving much of Toretsk’s high-rise section heavily damaged. This destruction has significantly reduced the tactical value of the high-rise complex as a base for both defensive and offensive operations, depriving Russian forces of critical coverage.
This situation allowed Ukrainian drone operators to target the weakened Russian positions with ease, as many Russian troops were left exposed in open areas or through gaps in walls and roofs. Combat footage shows desperate Russian soldiers, lacking adequate cover, attempting to play dead to avoid being hit by drones. However, Ukrainian operators saw through this tactic and struck them regardless.
With Ukrainian drones controlling the high-rises, Russian firing positions and drone bases were completely compromised, forcing Russian troops to remain inside. This enabled Ukrainian forces to send more combat engineers to intensify demolition efforts, blowing up additional high-rise buildings while the Russians were trapped inside.
Combat footage shows Ukrainian demolition squads dismounting from American M113 armored personnel carriers, suppressing limited Russian small-arms fire, and consolidating their position. They then placed explosives near Russian-held buildings, re-boarded their vehicles, and detonated the charges - successfully completing the operation without any losses.
Realizing their high-rise positions were untenable and incapable of supporting effective assaults, the Russian command shifted focus to the Zabalka district in southern Toretsk. This small area is mostly made up of one-story residential houses - an unfavorable terrain. Positioned below two towering terrikons, over 100 meters tall from nearby coal mine waste, Russian troops were fully exposed to Ukrainian forces. This allowed Ukrainians to easily direct and adjust mortar and artillery fire on the Russian assault units.
Despite these disadvantages, the Russians needed to advance on the Zabalka district to stabilize their logistics in Toretsk, especially after the destruction of multiple high-rises. Securing Zabalka would protect the southern flank of their forces in the high-rise area and open a key supply route through the district. This route could serve as an alternative to Central Street in the main part of Toretsk, which remains under Ukrainian FPV drone control.
The Russian command appeared to overlook the Ukrainian observation posts and firing positions on the terrikons when they launched an assault on Zabalka. Initially, Russian forces made confident gains, as the area was relatively distant from the main Ukrainian-controlled positions. However, as they approached the terrikons, their advance was abruptly halted by Ukrainian fire control from these elevated positions.
The combination of height advantages allowed the Ukrainians to hold the line with fewer troops, effectively leveraging multiple elevation levels. This advantage was further amplified by Ukrainian drone operators, who swiftly targeted Russian positions below, as seen in combat footage that captured Russian troops being detected and quickly struck.
Overall, the successful actions of Ukrainian demolition squads caused a chain of events which is forcing the Russians on improvised assaults on the southern flank. Despite the new supply route through Zabalka, it will likely face increasing drone strikes and artillery fire due to Ukraine’s strong observation points on the terrikons.
Russian gains in the Zabalka provide short-term stabilization of their defenses they remain unable to advance north of the high-rise area where Ukrainian defenses are holding firm.
If this trend continues, Ukrainian forces will be able to destroy the remaining high rises with explosives effectively neutralizing the most promising Russian attack vector and opening opportunities for counterattacks.
But based on previous unauthorized releases, officials said it was most likely a lower-level government employee.
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Like I said some 20-something “Free Palestine” type.