They are likely to have a GDP growth that is negative, i.e. a recession that will last many years.
China attempts stimulus today. Oil markets did not seem to buy it, with prices dropping a bit.
OilPrice.com reports:
“China has unleashed a swath of stimulus measures including cuts to its benchmark interest rate as Beijing battles a slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy.
China’s central bank unveiled a broad stimulus package on Wednesday (25 Sep)—the boldest since the pandemic—including cuts to its benchmark interest rate aimed at jumpstarting the faltering economy. However, analysts have warned that more fiscal help is needed to boost economic activity in the world’s second-largest economy. Economists also remain skeptical whether China will hit the government’s full-year growth target of 5%.
“Concerns lingered that more fiscal support would be needed to boost confidence in the Chinese economy. This uncertainty raised doubts about sustained demand growth, weighing on crude prices,” George Khoury, global head of education and research at CFI Financial Group, told Reuters.”