“Good thread by Mick. My sense is that @lukeharding1968 has this right. I think this is largely a response to Russia’s Kharkiv offensive and designed to help take that territory back—either through negotiations or diverting Russian forces—and to strengthen Ukraine’s broader negotiating position. Another possibility is that this is an attempt to partially “localize” the war by both sides agreeing to not conduct operations across the border by demonstrating its costs to Russia. It seems the plan involves Ukraine holding territory in Kursk and creating a buffer for a period of time, though there is clearly room for improvisation and exploitation. If Ukraine does hold a buffer, a key question is whether the US will authorize the use of HIMARS GMLRS strikes into Kursk. Otherwise, they will be at a disadvantage compared to other parts of the front. Holding a buffer for an extended period of time also risks extending the front line against a numerically superior adversary. The capture of prisoners who can be traded for Ukrainian POWs has been a notable success of the operation so far.”
https://x.com/RALee85/status/1821672222534042079
“Footage shows another Russian helicopter attacked by Ukrainian FPV drone in Kursk special operation zone. It is unclear what happened with the aircraft but it stopped operating in the area.”
https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1821824900840980568
Otherwise, they will be at a disadvantage compared to other parts of the front. Holding a buffer for an extended period of time also risks extending the front line against a [ theoretically ] numerically superior adversary.