ISW, 30 July:
“Periodic and pulsating Russian mechanized assaults likely represent the extent of Russia’s current offensive capacity, and Russia is unlikely to mount a distinct new summer offensive operation due to material and manpower constraints.”
“Western media, citing unspecified Ukrainian sources, reported in December 2023 and January 2024 that Russian forces planned to seize the remaining territory of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia oblasts during a large-scale offensive operation in the summer of 2024, but Russian forces likely revised those plans following the passage of US military assistance to Ukraine in April 2024.”
“The ongoing Russian offensive operations are also costly for Ukrainian defenders and are likely meant to degrade Ukrainian capabilities through attrition whether or not they gain much ground. This attritional approach is consistent with Putin’s overall strategy for Ukraine that relies on the assumption that Russia will be able to hold any ground Russian forces take and that Russia will win by outlasting Western support for Ukraine.”
Relatively recent peace proposals by Putin have included him getting all of the 4 oblasts mentioned. I think it is ridiculous to think Ukraine would surrender the city of Kherson and the territory on the west side of the river afther all their effort to capture and hold it. The seem to have been making special efforts to drive out the Russian troops stationed on the islands to the east of Kherson.
Is there any information on what success Ukraine has been having to mess up the railroad Russia is building through southern Ukraine from Rostov on Don to supply Crimea? I would hope Ukraine is busy making that project VERY difficult as I think they may have a good chance of reclaiming Crimea. Especially possible if Turkey has worked some deal with them regarding their minority that was expelled and presumably robbed of land and buildings in Crimea.