“Morale Issues. Audio interceptions and individual Russian reports indicate seriously lowered morale among Russian forces, with infantry units showing signs of exhaustion. Some advancing Russian units have reportedly simulated communication problems to avoid further commands. In other instances, unit commanders have falsely claimed to face strong resistance and overwhelming force as a pretext for retreat. This pattern of behavior mirrors issues observed before, particularly after the defeat near Vuhledar in 2023, when units began sabotaging orders due to low morale. While this does not imply that Russian forces will cease their advances, the noticeable fatigue is unlikely to be resolved in the near months.”
“Recruitment. Overall, Russia continues to recruit a sufficient number of recruits; however, there are some evident problems. To meet recruitment quotas, Russian local governments have significantly increased sign-up bonuses, some of which have nearly quintupled compared to 2022 and 2023. For instance, Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin signed a decree granting Moscow residents a one-time payment of 1.9 million rubles ($21,777) upon signing a contract with the Russian Defense Ministry. Similar measures have been implemented in other regions; in Volgograd, the sign-up bonus has reached 800,000 rubles (slightly over $9,000).
To put this in perspective, the median monthly salary in Russia in July 2023 was 53,571 rubles ($591.90), meaning that the sign-up bonus exceeds the median annual income in Russia. Regarding age and demographics, the median age of Russian soldiers has significantly increased. While a full report with more details is scheduled for next week, we can already say that the median age of Russian soldiers continues to increase as the war progresses. This trend indicates growing shortages among the younger demographic pool.”