From report 2 years ago, UN now expects China’s population to decline by an additional 130 million (766 million to 639 million). From 1.4 billion to 639 million by 2100. Just Stunning.
We have truly seen Peak China. I believe that completely.
RuZZia is a declining power. The Ukraine War has cemented RuZZia’s future. The West needs to manage that decline.
I expect China’s relative power to stabilize over the next couple of decades before a serious economic / national decline. When you lose 800 MILLION people, you’ve lost your future power.
This century will be Another American Century.
The history books have my permission to use that slogan.
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“The One-Child Policy Supercharged China’s Economic Miracle. Now It’s Paying the Price.”
“Revised U.N. data shows the speed of China’s aging after it accelerated its ‘demographic dividend’”
“When China launched its one-child policy more than four decades ago, it sped up an evolution toward smaller family sizes that would have happened more gradually.
The policy supercharged the country’s workforce: By caring for fewer children, young people could be more productive and put aside more money. For years, just as China was opening its economy, the share of working-age Chinese grew faster than the parts of the population that didn’t work. That was a big factor in China’s economic miracle.
There was a price and China is now paying it. Limiting births then means fewer workers now, and fewer women to give birth. A United Nations forecast published Thursday shows how quickly China is aging, a demographic crunch that the U.N. predicts will cut China’s population by more than half by the end of the century.
In the late 1970s, China’s leaders feared a population explosion that would drain the country’s resources. When Deng Xiaoping rolled out the one-child policy nationwide in 1980, he said, “We must do this. Otherwise, our economy cannot be developed well.”
A young population has helped drive economic growth in developing countries across the world, including in China’s neighbor Japan starting in the 1950s. Economists call it a demographic dividend—the window, generally of a few decades, when a country has far more working-age people than young and elderly dependents. As such countries grow wealthier, people naturally choose to have fewer children and the population starts to age.
That was also the trajectory in China—just faster.
Knowingly or not, China essentially borrowed from its own future by accelerating its so-called demographic window. How the effects of the policy have sped up China’s demographic bind is scrambling the long-term models demographers usually work with.
“The challenge with China is that from one year to another the situation can change quite fast,” said Patrick Gerland, head of the U.N.’s population estimates and projection section. “Within the last decade, the changes have been very big, both in policy and in the numbers.”
For example, in its just-published global estimates, the U.N. expects China’s population to drop from 1.4 billion today to 639 million by 2100, a much steeper drop than the 766.7 million it predicted just two years ago.”
https://www.wsj.com/world/china/china-population-slowing-economy-7ff938e5?mod=hp_lead_pos7
Another estimate is for ANOTHER 100 MILLION fewer people.
“Even so, the U.N.’s prediction looks optimistic compared with other estimates. Researchers from Victoria University in Australia and the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences have predicted that China will have just 525 million people by the end of the century. “
That would be a loss of 900 MILLION people.
Another factor, despite official statistics to the contrary, 80% of China’s population lives in poverty.