When will Russia run out of tanks?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N7kYRMeesq8
This recent YouTube interview (6:30 minutes) with a pretty sharp sounding analyst from RUSI (UK think tank) estimates an inflection point in mid 2025, when the flow from storage slows, and productive capacity has to start shifting from refurbishing stored tanks, to producing new ones. They never run out totally, but they will have less operational than they have now, and that will become pronounced by mid 2026.
Personnel is a very different story, with Russia steadily expanding solders in theater, exceeding their recruiting goals and having a systematic training base operating. From an initial force of over 100,000 invading Ukraine, their grouping of forces is now over 500,000 men under arms.
The more men recruited, the more that can be killed.
120k dead. Means 360k wounded. 480k total casualties.
Know what that’s called?
A GOOD START.
“Report Estimates 120,000 Russian Soldiers Killed in Ukraine”
“Around 120,000 Russian soldiers have been killed since the Ukraine war began in 2022, according to a joint investigation by independent media outlets Mediazona and Meduza published on Friday.
This updated figure is an estimate based on Russia’s registry of inheritance cases. The report says the true toll likely lies between 106,000 and 140,000 deaths.
It far exceeds a separate count by Mediazona and BBC Russian Service of 58,207 Russian combat deaths, which is probably an underestimate, as it only includes publicly identified deceased soldiers.
“Since the beginning of the year, the Russian army’s losses have increased by 39,000 people. The average number of fatalities is increasing: previously, about 120 people died per day; now it is 200 to 250 people,” Mediazona wrote on Telegram.
As Russia has not since 2022 released official statistics about the number of soldiers killed, volunteers from Mediazona and Meduza relied on open sources to make their estimates.
The Ukrainian government also keeps its military losses secret, making the overall level of casualties from Russia’s invasion ambiguous.
Casualties from Russia-backed separatist forces in Donetsk and Luhansk are not included in Mediazona’s estimate.”
“analyst from RUSI (UK think tank) estimates an inflection point in mid 2025” (when the number of operational Russian tanks in Ukraine begins to decline)
That coincides with new Western production lines ramping up to a full steady supply of heavy Artillery and drones for the Ukrainian Army. That expansion of the Western Defense Industrial base to support Ukraine has already been funded and contracted.
These lines crossing on the charts, is likely going to start closing the window where Russia can keep grinding forward with a firepower advantage and meat waves. Russian casualty rates will likely also continue their climb as a result.