“Second Army of the Universe.”
Long thread, don’t have time to post all of it
“It’s important not to treat jamming as an on/off switch for weapons with satellite-guidance. Some arms are better hardened than others. Colby details outcomes below. In brief, mostly works: GBU-39 SDB & JDAM bombs. Stuff that doesn’t: GL-SDB, Excalibur shells. In-between: GMLRS.”
“Is Russian Electronic Warfare successfully jamming the GPS signals on American provided precision guided munitions to the point that Ukraine can no longer effectively employ them?
No. No it is not.
Many people seem to believe so though. So what’s really going on?
🧵
1/15”
https://x.com/sebastienroblin/status/1803982365464596745
Nice to see you back Speedy.
“3000+ tanks and now 3000+ BMPs.”
We have assessed previously that this is likely an undercount, due to their methodology.
The Ukrainian MoD count is about 8,000 tanks, and we have previously assessed that to likely be an overcount.
Also, we have previously discussed 6,000 lost Russian tanks, as a ballpark figure for when the supply of refurbished tanks from inventory would become significantly constrained.
OSINT analysis of satellite imagery of Russian storage yards, generally assesses another year or two at these rates, for expending their ground combat platform inventories generally.
Things will likely degrade for them generally, thinning out and dropping in quality (which we have already been observing for a long while) - but their negotiating position for peace terms is going to degrade, as their combat, logistical and financial ability to continue degrades.
One more year (FY 25) of full Military funding, and Western production will be surging, as Russian reserves are petering out.
That is my guess.