Replies

“Putin offers a ceasefire”

ISW’s take:

“The Kremlin will continue to feign interest in negotiations at critical moments in the war to influence Western decision-making on support for Ukraine and to continue efforts to extract preemptive concessions from the West. The Kremlin has repeatedly engaged in a large-scale reflexive control campaign that aims to influence Western decision-making.

Reflexive control is a key element in Russia’s hybrid warfare toolkit and relies on shaping an adversary with targeted rhetoric and information operations in such a way that the adversary voluntarily takes actions that are advantageous to Russia.

Kremlin officials claimed that Russia was open to negotiations in December 2022, likely to delay the provision of Western tanks and other equipment essential for the continuation of Ukrainian mechanized counteroffensives.

Western reporting on Putin’s alleged interest in negotiations in Winter 2023-2024 coincided with prolonged debates in the US about security assistance for Ukraine, and the Kremlin may have feigned interest in a ceasefire at this time to convince Western policymakers to pressure Ukraine to negotiate from a weakened position and agree to what would have very likely been a settlement that heavily favored Russia.

The Kremlin may again be feigning interest in negotiations in order to influence the ongoing Western debate about lifting restrictions on Ukraine’s use of Western-provided weapons to strike military targets in Russia and convince Western policymakers that changes in these restrictions may lead to Russian unwillingness to negotiate in the future.

The Kremlin may also be feigning interest in negotiations again to preemptively influence any future Western discussions about the provision of the additional aid that Ukrainian forces will need to contest the initiative and launch their own counteroffensive operations in the medium term.

ISW continues to assess that the consistent provision of key Western systems will play a crucial role in Ukraine’s ability to contest the theater-wide initiative and conduct future counteroffensive operations.

US officials have recently stated that the resumption of US security assistance will help Ukrainian forces withstand Russian assaults throughout the rest of 2024 and that Ukrainian forces will look to conduct counteroffensive operations to recapture territory in 2025.”

More genius military moves ...

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Kremlin snuff box, 06/14/24
https://t.me/s/kremlin_secrets

Young pilots were killed in the Rostov region

As a result of an enemy attack on the Morozovsk airfield in the Rostov region, two young pilots of our Aerospace Forces were killed. 23 and 24 years old.

“They recently signed contracts. Active preparations have begun. Now it is urgently necessary to qualitatively strengthen and quantitatively increase the scale of training of Russian pilots. Alas, equipment is lost, crews die. Very experienced guys are leaving,” our source explained the situation.

According to him, the pilots, as punishment for some offense, were forced to work at night on an anti-aircraft installation and shoot down flying drones. At the time of the attack, one of the drones was shot down by other military personnel. Two pilots were killed by falling debris.

An investigation is underway regarding this matter. In particular, about why the pilots suddenly turned out to be operators of an anti-aircraft gun.

In total, six soldiers died as a result of the attack. Information about damage to aircraft is being verified.

Reporting From Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU/videos

Reporting From Ukraine Uncensored Combat Footage (from this and past Reports) is found on Telegram:
https://t.me/RFUEnglish or @RFUEnglish
[ You need to have the Telegram app to view. ]

The complete transcript.
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[ Dead in 7 Minutes: Disoriented Russian Driver Got His Unit Killed! ]

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Day 842: Jun 14

Today, there are a lot of updates from the Bakhmut direction.

The most interesting news comes from the northern flank of Chasiv Yar.

Here, the Russians attempted to establish a foothold on the western side of the canal to attack Chasiv Yar from the north. However, Ukrainians thwarted this operation on time, forcing Russians to yet again focus on casualty-heavy assaults in the Kanal district, for marginal gains.

To achieve the goal of expanding assaults on Chasiv Yar from the north, the main goal of Russian forces became the village of Kalinivika. This village, located north of the town, is significant for the Russians because an overground passage over the canal would enable Russians to cross it.

The Russians want to exploit this crossing to establish a bridgehead and use it to launch further attacks on Chasiv Yar. Such an approach could enable Russians to attack Ukrainian rear positions and stretch their lines, which could cause Ukrainians to withdraw from the Kanal district.

In one such assault, Russians managed to cross the canal to establish positions on the other side.

Combat footage shows an MT-LB armored transport carrying 10 Russian soldiers across the canal. Subsequently, the squad dismounted from the vehicle to establish positions in the nearby trenches.

However, unfortunately for the Russians, they were immediately targeted by a kamikaze drone, which wounded a third of the assault squad.

This caused panic among the whole team, which dispersed while the MT-LB drove off to the northwest, leaving everyone behind.

The prompt Ukrainian strike against the Russian infantry group suggests that Ukrainian forces have extensive visibility in the area.

The Institute For the Study of War assesses that the Russian infantry group likely did not survive the assault, and that Russian troops could not establish enduring positions in the area due to this particular attack.

While the fate of the Russian unit remains unknown, Ukrainian sources reported that the unit got so far because it got lost, and then it was reportedly eliminated.

After the failed operation, Ukrainians took advantage of the disorganized and dispersed state of Russians in the area to launch a counterattack to retake the lost parts of Kalinivka.

BILD assesses that the Ukrainians were successful and retook Kalinivka from the Russians, effectively diminishing their gains by pushing them to the eastern outskirts of the village.

As a result of the failure to advance on the Kanal residential district from the flanks, Russian commanders decided to intensify heavy casualty-inducing frontal assaults on the Kanal District. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrsky stated that Russians are trying to take it at all costs.

It was noted that Russians used an unusually high number of infantry fighting vehicles in combination with T-90M tanks; many of these were successfully destroyed by Ukrainian anti-tank guided missile and drone operators.

Russian Airforce bombardments with glide bombs collapsed large sections of high-rises at the eastern edges of the district, while rubble collapsed and blocked many hallways and parts of seemingly intact parts of buildings.

This made the buildings untenable for any defensive positions, forcing the Ukrainians to withdraw from them and leaving weak points for Russian fighters to exploit.

Geolocated footage shows a squad of 8 Russian airborne troops crossing a road from a seized building and taking up positions in the Chasiv Yar repair plant.

Another combat video shows airborne troops clearing out the Ukrainian positions in a high-rise building. After that, the Russians raise their flag over the building.

Based on this footage, we can see that the Russian fighters advanced up to Obrasa Street -to the right of the street are 5 story high-rise buildings seen in the video.

These buildings enable Russians to have strong firing positions, then again Ukrainians on the other side of the street are also in high rises so both Russians and Ukrainians diminish any chances of either having fire control here.

For this reason, the Russians will likely use the captured repair plant to the north to launch attacks toward the bridges on the canal to cut off the road, supplying and reinforcing the Ukrainians in remaining positions.

Because of the very unfavorable positions that Ukrainians found themselves in, they might have to withdraw to the other side of the canal and blow up all bridges over it .

Even if the remaining positions in The District fall to the Russian fighters, there is a barrier in the form of the canal right behind the buildings.

Therefore, any further Russian attempts at assaults would be suicidal, making the total Russian losses during the assaults in this area unreasonable for such tactically insignificant gains.

Overall, the battle for the northern flank of Chasiv Yar has seen intense Russian attempts to secure positions, notably in Kalinivka which have been effectively countered by Ukrainian forces using advanced tactics.

Despite significant destruction in the Kanal District due to Russian bombardments, Ukrainian defenders have managed to retake and hold critical positions.

The ongoing battle remains highly dynamic with heavy casualties among Russian fighters and no decisive gains achieved by the Russian forces.

Kremlin snuff box, 06/16/24

We warned about this, but the strike was supposed to be in another city. Four things you need to know about terrorists in the Rostov pretrial detention center

Sources in the FSB are laconic and asked that we not write anything at all about the hostage-taking situation in the Rostov pretrial detention center. But a few things need to be said.

Firstly, we warned about the threat of such a crime.

“The bandits planned to escape and carry out a large-scale terrorist attack. The connection between the terrorists and ISIS is obvious,” said one of our sources.

Secondly, a cache of weapons and explosives was recently found in Rostov-on-Don. Unfortunately, the terrorists who created it were able to escape and remain at large. Security forces are asking all local residents to be careful and remain vigilant.

Thirdly, there is no answer yet to the question of why the FSB and other security forces, knowing that a terrorist attack was being prepared in Russia, did not pay attention to the Rostov pretrial detention center ( where an ISIS cell was actually created ). But we will definitely get it. It’s good that, according to preliminary data, everything ended well. But, unfortunately, this is hardly the end of the story.

Fourthly, our sources admit that they were expecting an attack ( most likely a large-scale terrorist attack ) in another city. They haven’t said what yet, but we’ll definitely find out.

Kremlin snuff box, 06/16/24
https://t.me/s/kremlin_secrets

4 Russian cities are now under threat of serious terrorist attacks

We learned from sources in the FSB, the Russian National Guard and the Federal Penitentiary Service what actually happened in the Rostov pretrial detention center . And where else can the terrorists of ISIS, banned in Russia, strike? We ask everyone to carefully read this post, because it can save lives.

Firstly, according to several FSB interlocutors, the highest threat of large-scale terrorist attacks is now in 4 cities of our country: St. Petersburg, Volgograd, Kazan and Donetsk.

“There is also a threat in Moscow, but now there are such security measures that the terrorists, I hope, will not succeed. And they switched to other cities,” explained one of our sources. Donetsk, he said, was chosen “because the situation there is already difficult, and it can be seriously aggravated, sow chaos. And that’s what terrorists need.”

Secondly, regarding the hostage-taking in the Rostov pretrial detention center.

The Russian Guard claims that the FSB knew in advance about the terrorists’ plans, but did not share information about this with other security forces.

“We decided to do without the help of our special forces and missed the threat - we didn’t have time to take the terrorists easily,” one of Viktor Zolotov’s deputies told us. Sources in the leadership of the Federal Penitentiary Service share the same opinion.

The FSB called this version “nonsense” and refused to answer the question of why the terrorists were not neutralized in time. We know that they are now looking for ISIS accomplices. In particular, among the employees of the pretrial detention center.

Thirdly, the FSB is now finding out how many “sleeping” ISIS cells have been created in Russia, where else ( besides the cities mentioned above ) terrorists can attack. And asks citizens to be vigilant.

“I don’t think we will allow a new Crocus. But we still really need the help of citizens, their vigilance in identifying terrorists,” noted a high-ranking source in the service.