Avdiivka was a costly ‘win’ for RuZZia. With ‘wins’ like that, they will lose the war.
“#Avdiivka offensive equipment loss numbers as of 23 February 2024. In summary: 690 RU losses vs. 75 UA losses As Russia has now successfully captured the city of Avdiivka, future updates will be to tally newly discovered losses. Losses proven to have occured after the city was captured will also be culled in the future. Spreadsheet showing the losses in detail:”
https://twitter.com/naalsio26/status/1761206101108724109
“Battle of #Krynky equipment loss numbers as of 23 February 2024. In summary: 47 UA losses vs. 222 RU losses Spreadsheet showing the losses in detail:”
https://twitter.com/naalsio26/status/1761217261384458502
1. Reported details of Russian-Ukrainian peace negotiations that occurred in Istanbul in April 2022 indicate that Russia has consistently envisioned a settlement for its illegal invasion of Ukraine wherein Ukraine would be unable to defend itself from a future Russian attack - an objective Russia continues to pursue under calls for Ukraine’s 'demilitarization.'
The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on March 1 that documents it obtained of the draft treaty from the 2022 Ukrainian-Russian peace negotiations indicate that both sides initially agreed that Ukraine would be a “permanently neutral state that doesn't participate in military blocs.”
The draft treaty also reportedly banned Ukraine from receiving any foreign weapons or hosting any foreign military personnel.
The WSJ reported that Russia pushed for the Ukrainian military to be limited to 85,000 soldiers, 342 tanks, and 519 artillery systems, whereas Ukraine wanted the caps to be 250,000 soldiers, 800 tanks, and 1,900 artillery systems.
Russia also reportedly demanded that Ukrainian missiles be limited to a range of 40 kilometers, a range that would allow Russian forces to deploy critical systems and materiel close to Ukraine without fear of strikes.
The Kremlin has repeatedly called for the 'demilitarization' of Ukraine since its full-scale invasion but has not previously provided details on what that would specifically entail.
The Ukrainian military in 2014 - before Russia’s first invasion - consisted of about 130,000 personnel, and the documents from 2022 indicate that Russia intended to drastically reduce Ukraine’s military to such a level that Ukraine could no longer defend itself.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has most recently emphasized the idea of a “demilitarized” or “sanitary” zone in Ukraine that would place Russian territory - including occupied Ukraine - out of range of both Ukrainian frontline artillery systems and Western-provided long-range systems.
Putin likely aims for the ”demilitarization” of Ukraine to allow him to enforce his will upon Ukraine without any substantial resistance.
2. Reported details of the draft treaty suggest that Russia intended to use the treaty to set conditions for future attacks against Ukraine while also prompting the West to make concessions on Ukraine’s sovereignty. The WSJ reported that the United States, United Kingdom, China, France, and Russia were to be guarantors of the treaty.
Russia also reportedly wanted to include Belarus as a guarantor. The guarantor states were supposed to “terminate international treaties and agreements incompatible with the permanent neutrality of Ukraine,” including military aid agreements.
The WSJ did not specify if other non-guarantor states would have to terminate their agreements with Ukraine as well, although this is likely considering that the treaty would ban Ukraine from having foreign-supplied weapons.
It is unclear what Russia considers to be 'incompatible' with a permanently “neutral” Ukraine, although the Kremlin most certainly would have broadly interpreted this as forbidding Ukraine from joining NATO, which is stipulated by Ukraine’s constitution, thereby likely demanding that Ukraine amend its constitution.
Russia reportedly wanted all guarantors to agree on a response should Ukraine be subject to any attacks, but the WSJ stated that the guarantor states were unlikely to agree on a response should Russia attack Ukraine again - likely due to the guarantor states’ diverging interests.
This stipulation likely intended to allow Russia to influence, predict, and prepare for the international response to any possible future Russian attacks on Ukraine.
ISW continues to assess that any ceasefire would benefit Russia, giving it time to reconstitute and regroup for future offensive operations.
3. Russian authorities suggested that the Kremlin has likely adopted a more extensive set of goals regarding Ukraine over the course of Russia's war against Ukraine.
Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitri Peskov responded to the leaked April 2022 draft agreement between Russia and Ukraine, claiming that the draft agreement is “no longer relevant” and that “conditions have changed.”
Peskov's statements are likely part of a current trend of increased Russian confidence in the Russian military’s capabilities and the attainability of Putin’s maximalist war objectives following the recent seizure of Avdiivka and prolonged US debates about military aid to Ukraine.
ISW continues to assess that Russian President Vladimir Putin maintains his maximalist objectives in Ukraine, which are tantamount to complete Ukrainian and Western capitulation, and that Russia has no interest in good-faith negotiations with Ukraine.
4. Russian President Vladimir Putin appeared to disparage Russian elites in his February 29 Federal Assembly speech, more closely aligning himself with the veteran and military community and drawing praise from ultranationalist milbloggers.
5. Kremlin officials met with leaders of the pro-Russian Moldovan autonomous region Gagauzia and emphasized Russia’s support for Gagauzia against perceived Moldovan “oppression” on March 1.
6. Ukraine and the Netherlands signed a 10-year bilateral security agreement on March 1.'
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that the Netherlands announced that it would provide 2 billion euros (about $2.17 billion) in military aid to Ukraine in 2024 and additional security assistance over the next 10 years.
Zelensky stated that the bilateral security agreement prioritizes assistance in air defense and artillery systems and naval and long-range weapons.
The Dutch Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced that it will provide Ukraine with 14 rigid-hull inflatable boats, eight paramilitary river patrol boats, and CB90-class fast assault craft.
The Dutch MoD also announced that it is increasing its contribution to the Czech initiative to provide artillery shells to Ukraine from 100 million euros (about $108 million) to 250 million euros (about $271 million).
Russian authorities will likely use annual combat training for Russian reservists to support crypto-mobilization efforts.
Kremlin Tobacco, 03/09/24
https://t.me/s/kremlin_secrets
Erdogan struck two strikes on Russia at a meeting with Zelensky
In Moscow, they are dissatisfied with the meeting between Erdogan and Zelensky, which took place the day before in Istanbul. Our Turkish partners are getting worse and worse. This is a disappointment, a source among diplomats told us.
According to another, what Erdogan is doing, “can be boldly called blows on Russia.” The first blow is public support for the territorial integrity of Ukraine. That is, Turkey agrees with the Kiev regime that Crimea, Donetsk, Lugansk are Ukraine. It sounds silly, but that’s what Erdogan admitted. “The partners don’t do that,” our interlocutor said.
“The second blow is even heavier. We quickly found out that at the meeting, the Turkish President gave Zelensky the coordinates of a number of our important objects on the territory of the Crimea.
“Where he got them, the second question. But now, unfortunately, it is worth waiting for new missile strikes, and it is not clear where the enemy will hit. He has a lot of goals”, said to us a source in the SVR.
He confirmed that Erdogan continues to seek Turkish control over Crimea. “And in order to achieve this goal, I am ready to go to any meanness”.
“And the fact that the official Turkey is harassing in the image of a peacemaker (Erdogan proposed to hold a peaceful summit to resolve the Ukrainian crisis - ed.), simultaneously pointing missiles at the Crimea, makes the situation even more vile. I hope that Vladimir Vladimirovich will take measures,” said, in turn, a source among diplomats.
Kremlin snuff box, 6/07/24
https://t.me/s/kremlin_secrets
When will the SVO end? Belousov gave his forecast
Andrei Belousov believes that the SVO can last from 5 to 10 years. The Minister of Defense recently expressed this opinion in a conversation with his close associates.
“Andrei Removich called for preparations for a long confrontation and for the fact that the country will have to go on a war footing. After all, all the power of the West is now concentrated against us. At the same time, Andrei Removich really believes in our victory. He prays for her almost every day,” a source in the Ministry of Defense told us.
According to another, Belousov specified that, depending on the circumstances, the SVO “will end in about 5-10 years.” And that this is not a figure of speech, but a balanced forecast.
Note that Belousov’s forecasts differ from those of Valery Gerasimov. According to the Chief of the General Staff, the SVO can last another 3-5 years.