ISW reports (10 June):
“Ukrainian strikes against Russian military and logistics assets in connection to the United States’ partial removal of Russian sanctuary in Belgorod Oblast may have compelled Russian forces to change their deployment and transport patterns.
The Crimea-based Atesh Ukrainian partisan movement reported on June 10 that Russian forces recently redeployed air defense systems from occupied Crimea to Belgorod Oblast and that Russian air defenses are not completely covering Crimea as a result.
Footage dated June 8 shows that Russia has begun transporting fuel across the Kerch Strait across the railway bridge.
Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Captain Third Rank Dmytro Pletenchuk stated on April 29 that Russian authorities have not transported fuel across the Kerch Strait railway bridge since March 2024 due to the threat of a Ukrainian strike against the bridge as a fuel transport crossed, which could ignite and possibly destroy the bridge.
Ukrainian military–focused news outlet Militarnyi assessed on June 10 that Ukrainian strikes against railway barges across the Kerch Strait on May 30 prompted Russian authorities to begin transporting fuel across the railway bridge again.”
Some good intel, some good timing, some good luck and the rail line could be completely compromised.
We have seen pictures where UKF have hit a moving train with a long range drone.
Perhaps we will see a fuel train hit while on the bridge.