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In the best interest of humanity...

“Good news: the “Putin system” is beginning to collapse. Exactly what I had predicted mathematically (in March) is happening, namely: The announced drastic tax increases in Russia (the highest tax increases in the history of modern Russia) as well as Putin’s recently published slogans (according to which “everyone must work as if they were at the front”) are dramatic signs that the toxicity of the Russian war economy is reaching a critical level.

What does “toxicity” mean:

If the cost of replacing material losses (in such a way that the speed of replacement is in balance with the speed of losses) is no longer within the scope of the financing of the state budget, then a system becomes unfinanceable. This unfinanceability is toxic for a system because it causes the system to collapse in the medium term (unless the war is won).

❗️Russia is familiar with this type of toxicity; the USSR collapsed when the costs of the arms race (pushed by US President Ronald Reagan) could no longer be financed from the state budget, which led to the collapse of the state.
The situation in Russia today is even more dramatic than the situation in the USSR back then. Today it is not just an arms race, but an active war, and in this war there is NO balance between loss and replacement: high-quality military goods (eg modern air defense systems such as the “S-400 Triumf”, or tanks and aircraft) can no longer be produced at a speed that is in balance with the rate of losses. And at the same time, Ukraine is compensating for its personnel disadvantages by using drones.

If Russian state revenues are further weakened NOW (e.g. by effective strikes against refineries) and if Russian supply routes are attacked NOW (if Ukraine receives all the weapons it needs for this), then this will massively accelerate the collapse of Russia, shorten the war and lead more quickly to a real peace.

❗️Putin is a loser:
▪️Does he have air superiority over Ukraine?
No. On the contrary, the extent of his superiority is diminishing.
▪️Is Ukraine “demilitarized”?
No. On the contrary.
▪️ Has he prevented the expansion of NATO?
No. On the contrary.
▪️Has he restored Russia’s imperial greatness?
No. On the contrary, he is now just “the little partner of big China”.

❗️Putin is a poker player who can only bluff:
He can only threaten to escalate the war, but he cannot carry out this threat because Russia is far too inferior to NATO.

Putin’s only hope: politicians in the West who are hesitant enough (in their efforts to support Ukraine) so that the war can be won “somehow” before Russia collapses.
We must not allow it to come to that.
If Ukraine wins and Russia loses, then the entire China-Iran-Russia axis loses. And that is in the best interest of humanity.”

https://x.com/ImmanuelNiven/status/1796102394629030289