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The complete transcript.
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[ Ukrainian Forces Stop & Counterattack Russians in Urozhaine ]

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Day 819: May 22

Today, there is a lot of news from the Velyka Novosilka direction.

Here, after months of relative inactivity, Russian forces have drastically increased the intensity of their offensive operations targeting the villages of Staromaiorske and Urozhaine.

These villages, located south of Velyka Novosilka, hold tactical and symbolic significance, as these are the last settlements that Ukrainian forces recaptured during their counteroffensive in the summer of 2023.

The low intensity of the fighting in previous months was based on the fact that both sides needed to advance a significant number of kilometers across open fields, in order to get close to the first defensive line, making these attacks highly dangerous.

However, according to analysts, in the face of this apparent inactivity, Ukrainian forces may have moved some of their personnel to other hotter spots on the front line.

This relocation, added to the lack of material suffered by Ukrainian forces in the past months, may have given the Russians an opportunity to make sudden advances to the borders of Staromaiorske and Urozhaine.

The primary objective for Russian forces in this area is Velyka Novosilka. This settlement serves as a vital stronghold surrounded from all sides by rivers, as well as a logistic node, supplying all southern settlements.

Capturing Velyka Novosilka would enable Russian forces to inflict significant damage to Ukrainian logistics in the whole area, and overcome a major fortress along the southern line.

In addition, Russian forces aim to potentially link up with their operations in the southeastern Donetsk region, which aim to encircle Vuhledar following their repeated failures in frontal assaults.

The latest reports indicate Russian forces have escalated their use of loitering munition, targeting deep Ukrainian positions away from the immediate front line. Geolocated footage captured a Lancet strike carried out against Ukrainian artillery systems stationed near Velyka Novosilka.

In addition, Russian forces recently reported the destruction of a critical bridge over Mokri Yaly River in Velyka Novosilka, aiming to disrupt Ukrainian logistics operations between the main town and the southern settlements. The footage shows the impact of a Kh-38ML air-to-ground missile, causing the partial destruction of the bridge.

These two attacks indicate that Russian forces have taken advantage of the lack of air defense systems in recent weeks to increase their depth attacks, an issue that the Ukrainians are already trying to solve with the ongoing arrival of material from the American aid package.

In recent weeks, Russian forces have made progress west of Staromaiorske, advancing by around 1.5 kilometers.

If we look at the topographic map, we can see that this area is characterized by its relatively higher altitude. The main fight was actually for the control of the hill: as the hill is right above the village, losing it would mean direct access to the settlement.

A recent sudden Russian attack pushed Ukrainian defenses out from the hill, and for this reason, the latest reports indicate that heavy fighting is already inside Staromaiorske, although Ukrainian forces offer strong resistance.

In the area south of Urozhaine, heavy clashes have been reported, which started with extensive Russian aerial bombardments over the settlement aimed to set the conditions for the subsequent mechanized and infantry attacks.

Russian forces gained some marginal advances and reached the southern houses of the settlement.

Despite their efforts, these advances have failed to achieve a decisive breakthrough. Due to strong resistance, the Russian strategy has alternate probe attacks further east, seeking new vectors in an attempt to outmaneuver Ukrainian defenses.

Geolocated images reveal successful Ukrainian defensive operations in Urozhaine, including the use of FPV drones and artillery strikes to halt Russian medium-sized attacks.

Notably, Ukrainian forces managed to repel a Russian advance involving a tank and 2 armored infantry vehicles, with a single Ukrainian tank holding its ground effectively.

The footage shows how the Ukrainian tank makes a direct hit on the Russian tank, and moments later, the 2 armored infantry vehicles begin a rushed retreat. Additional geolocated footage shows Ukrainian infantry launching several successful counterattacks, targeting Russian positions in hangars.

In the aftermath of these counterattack, Ukrainians regained much of the ground and captured several Russian prisoners. These operations highlight the ongoing efforts of Ukrainian forces to disrupt and destabilize Russian advances, maintaining pressure and an active defense when possible.

Military analysts assess this recent Russian offensive activity in this area as part of a broader strategy to stretch the Ukrainian front line through diversionary attacks. These multiple probe attacks are a prelude to summer offensive efforts and aim at catching Ukrainian defenders off guard and forcing them to reallocate their limited personnel and resources.

The Russians continued to pursue a breakthrough that would compel Ukrainian forces to adjust their defensive resources balance.

However, the lack of strategic objective in this direction highlights that Russian forces will hardly be able to commit a comparable concentration of forces to that of points on the frontline with clear strategic and political objectives, which makes possible Russian advances in this direction likely to be contested and overturned in the short term by Ukrainian forces.

Overall, the situation in the area south of Velyka Novosilka remains highly dynamic and contested. Russian forces have increased the intensity of their attacks, making marginal advances, but failing to achieve a decisive breakthrough.

Ukrainian defenders continue to employ effective countermeasures, leveraging artillery, FPV drones, minefields and tactical maneuvers to maintain their positions.

The resilience and adaptability of Ukrainian forces in this region have been crucial in preventing a full-scale Russian breakthrough on this particular segment of the frontline.