What is Happening in Kharkiv? Many global media sources are exaggerating the Russian attack on Kharkiv. Therefore, it is important to clarify several points:
1. Gray Areas :
2. Ukrainian Ammunition Shortage :
3. Vovchansk:
4. Potential Attack from Sumy :
5. Media Exaggeration:
6. Kharkiv City :
Conclusion : The Russian attack on Kharkiv was not unexpected. While the initial Russian advance was swift, it is likely to encounter significant resistance and slow down upon reaching the established Ukrainian defensive lines.
https://x.com/Alfaiomi/status/1791953032940298266
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What is Happening in Kharkiv?
https://x.com/Alfaiomi/status/1791953032940298266
Many global media sources are exaggerating the Russian attack on Kharkiv. Therefore, it is important to clarify several points:
1. Gray Areas:
Most of the Russian advance so far has been in territories considered gray areas ( as shown on the map ), meaning these are regions where neither Ukrainian nor Russian soldiers are typically present due to the risk of coming under fire from the opposing side.
The rapid advance in these areas makes sense under a leadership that does not care about its soldiers, particularly with a new defense minister seeking to achieve any success to prove his worth.
2. Ukrainian Ammunition Shortage:
Ukraine has recently been suffering from a significant shortage of ammunition due to delayed Western support, which has greatly contributed to the Russian advance. The Russian tactic may have been to exploit this shortage to secure progress in the gray areas with fewer human losses, which appears to have been the case.
3. Vovchansk:
This town, with a pre-war population of about 20,000 but now fewer than 3,000, is the first Ukrainian defensive point in this region and is among the initial targets for the Russians.
Intense battles have been ongoing around it, and it is expected that the Russians will eventually capture it because most Ukrainian fortifications are situated beyond Vovchansk. Russian difficulties are likely to begin beyond Vovchansk.
4. Potential Attack from Sumy:
There is talk of a potential attack from Sumy to engage the Ukrainians along the longest possible front line. This would indeed pose a significant problem for the Ukrainians, but it is also not easy for the Russian forces, which have had to redistribute some units to achieve the current attack.
Thus, while the Russian tactic might be to distract Ukrainian forces from focusing on other areas like Donbas, this attack also means the Russian units are relatively occupied along the current contact line.
5. Media Exaggeration:
The Russian advance in the early days was rapid, but once they reach Ukrainian defensive lines, the speed will noticeably decrease.
Criticism within the Ukrainian camp about the lack of fortifications in the gray areas does not take into account the strategic reality of the difficulty in constructing military fortifications close to the front lines and within enemy fire range.
6. Kharkiv City: Some media figures have gone as far as to discuss Kharkiv city as a declared target. Personally, I do not expect such significant outcomes from the Russian attack.
The most likely scenario is a change, at least temporarily, in the front lines with a Russian advance in the gray areas and some adjacent towns, with the attack eventually faltering after reaching the deeper Ukrainian defensive lines.
Especially given that the approximately 60,000 units currently engaged in the fighting cannot significantly alter the map of Kharkiv, the second-largest city in Ukraine.
Conclusion:
The Russian attack on Kharkiv was not unexpected. While the initial Russian advance was swift, it is likely to encounter significant resistance and slow down upon reaching the established Ukrainian defensive lines.