The Kremlin is using nuclear threats to influence US President Donald Trump to stop his efforts to secure peace in Ukraine. Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev used his English-language X (formerly Twitter) account on September 23 to reiterate Russian President Vladimir Putin's recent announcement that Russia is prepared to continue to adhere to the nuclear arms limitations in the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) for one year after it expires on February 5, 2026.[1] Medvedev stated that the Trump administration must now decide whether it will follow suit. Medvedev claimed that US adherence to the letter of the treaty “is not enough,” however, and that the United States “must give up on weakening Russia with sanctions and tariffs” or else “the risk of direct conflict remains high.” Medvedev’s veiled nuclear threats directly tie US agreement to stop all its economic measures targeting Russia—the main tool that the Trump administration is using to try to bring Putin to the negotiating table to end the war in Ukraine—to Russia's continued adherence to New START or readiness to agree to any future arms control treaties. Medvedev’s threats are part of wider Kremlin efforts to delay peace negotiations, use threats to secure Russia's desired demands in Ukraine, secure concessions that benefit Russia, and deter the United States from supporting Ukraine.
Russia launched a multipronged informational campaign intended to mask Russia's economic weakness that US President Donald Trump recently correctly identified.> Kremlin officials responded on September 24 directly and indirectly to Trump's September 23 statement outlining Russia's military shortcomings and economic turmoil.[2] Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov responded to Trump's statement about how Russia's poor economic situation makes Russia look like a “paper tiger,” claiming that Russia is “more closely associated with a bear” and that “there are no paper bears.”[3] Peskov also explicitly rejected Trump's assertion that Ukraine could retake territory with assistance from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the European Union (EU).[4] Peskov claimed that Ukraine's military position is significantly worse than in Spring 2022 and that US efforts to “encourage” Ukraine to continue military operations are “misguided.”[5] The Kremlin aims to convince Trump and the West that continuing to support Ukraine and oppose Russia is not viable and that the United States should instead allow Russia to continue its war unimpeded.
The Kremlin launched three distinct narratives in response to Trump's September 23 statement: statements about the Kremlin's continued commitment to its original war aims; claims that a Russian victory in Ukraine is inevitable; and claims that the United States should focus on bilateral US-Russian economic relations. Peskov claimed that Russian President Vladimir Putin is open to the settlement process to end the war in Ukraine and that Trump “cannot help but see Putin's openness to this process.”[6] Peskov claimed that the “war is not aimless” but is meant to ensure Russia's security and Russian interests and to eliminate the war's “root causes.”[7] The Kremlin has repeatedly defined the alleged root causes as NATO's eastward expansion and Ukraine's alleged discrimination against Russian speakers. The Kremlin often uses claims about the root causes to call for Ukraine and the West to give in to Russia's original war aims.[8] Peskov also provided excuses for Putin's disinterest in participating in a bilateral meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, claiming that a meeting without significant preparation would be a “public relations stunt doomed to fail.”[9] Putin remains uninterested in good faith negotiations that require compromises and is instead making the same demands of Ukraine and the West as he did in late 2021 and February 2022.[10]
Peskov claimed that there is an influx of volunteers joining the Russian military, allowing the Russian military command to fully staff all its units, and that the Russian economy is fully meeting the Russian military's needs.[11] Peskov claimed that Ukraine must “not forget” that its position only worsens with every day that Ukraine refuses to negotiate and that the situation on the frontline is evidence of Ukraine's deteriorating situation.[12] Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev claimed that Trump's September 23 statements show that Trump is living in an “alternate reality.”[13] Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) CEO and key Kremlin negotiator Kirill Dmitriev claimed that Russia's economy is outperforming those of the EU, the United Kingdom, and the United States.[14] The Kremlin is attempting to frame Russian battlefield victory as inevitable to push Ukraine and the West to capitulate and agree to all of the Kremlin's demands out of fear that Russia has the capacity to sustain and even worsen its aggression.
Peskov claimed that there are a “huge number” of mutually beneficial areas for cooperation between American and Russian businesses and that the Trump administration is “generally business oriented.”[15] Peskov claimed that the Trump administration “cannot help but understand” the benefits of US-Russian trade and economic cooperation and that Russia remains open to the resumption of trade. Peskov stated that US-Russia relations are proceeding much more slowly than Russia would like.[16] The Kremlin has for months been trying to use economic carrots to influence the Trump administration into normalizing US-Russian bilateral relations without concluding the war in Ukraine.[17] ISW continues to assess that the Kremlin is dangling the prospect of business incentives unrelated to the war to extract concessions from the United States about the war.[18]
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated his commitment to engaging in peace negotiations and holding elections in accordance with the Ukrainian Constitution and Ukrainian law. Zelensky stated on September 24 in an interview with Fox News that Ukraine is ready to end the war as soon as possible.[19] Zelensky also reiterated that he is ready to hold elections once a ceasefire is in place and Ukraine has received security guarantees. The Ukrainian Constitution and Ukrainian law explicitly prohibit the government from holding elections during times of martial law, which Ukrainian authorities cannot lift during times of external aggression, such as Russia's full-scale invasion.[20]
Former Ukrainian Command-in-Chief and current Ukrainian Ambassador to the United Kingdom General Valerii Zaluzhnyi assessed on September 24 that Russian forces are adapting technological innovations and ground tactics in an attempt to restore maneuver to the battlefield. Zaluzhnyi stated that Russian and Ukrainian forces are engaged in positional warfare, even as Russian forces continue to make what Zaluzhnyi characterized as “grinding” advances.[21] Zaluzhnyi assessed that Russian drone strikes and innovations have forced Ukrainian forces to disperse their defenses on the frontline, with scattered small infantry groups that must act autonomously. Zaluzhnyi stated that this dispersion is blurring the frontline and that the “kill zone” (an area immediately near the frontline where a mass of tactical strike and reconnaissance drones pose an elevated risk to any equipment or personnel that enters the area) extends 20 kilometers from the frontline. Zaluzhnyi stated that the dominance of drones is dispersing the battlefield by preventing both sides from concentrating in their near rear and rear areas. Zaluzhnyi noted that Russian forces have developed infiltration tactics to take advantage of the resulting gaps in Ukrainian defenses, most notably near Dobropillya and Kupyansk. Zaluzhnyi also assessed that drones with artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities present a new threat on the battlefield.
ISW recently assessed that Russian forces are integrating drone tactics and adaptations to achieve some effects of battlefield air interdiction (BAI).[22] ISW assesses that Russian forces are actively targeting Ukrainian training grounds in the near rear with precise missile strikes enabled by improved reconnaissance and are developing drones that are more resistant to Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) interference and capable of operating at longer distances, higher speeds, and in challenging environments.[23] The Ukrainian Ground Forces reported on September 24 that Russian forces struck a training ground with Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles, in line with Zaluzhnyi's and ISW’s assessment that Russia's technological innovations are preventing Ukrainian forces from being able to safely concentrate in the rear.[24] Russia is continuing to adapt its drones to be resistant to Ukrainian EW. Ukrainian electronic and radio warfare expert Serhiy “Flash” Beskrestnov reported on September 24 that some Russian drones do not have any communication channels and are able to navigate and strike targets autonomously.[25] Beskrestnov noted that Ukrainian forces cannot suppress such drones because these drones do not rely on radio frequencies.
Russian jamming originating from Kaliningrad Oblast likely disrupted the GPS on Spanish Defense Minister Margarita Robles’ plane flying to Lithuania on September 24. Spanish news outlet El Mundo reported on September 24 that a plane carrying Robles experienced GPS disruptions while flying in the airspace near Kaliningrad Oblast.[26i] El Mundo reported that the plane was flying to Siauliai Air Base in Lithuania and that the pilot was still able to receive military satellite signals during the flight despite the GPS disruptions. An anonymous defense source told Reuters that they did not think that the disruption was targeted and that such disruptions are common on the route.[27] El Mundo reported that a Spanish commander on board similarly downplayed the disruption as a common occurrence. Robles stated that it is essential to defend the right to freely move throughout European territory without experiencing such disruptions.[28] Russia has likely previously jammed the satellite signal of other planes carrying high-ranking European officials, including a jet transporting then-UK Defense Secretary Grant Shapps in March 2024 and a plane carrying European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on September 1.[29]
Russia is likely using Kaliningrad Oblast for jamming operations due to its proximity to European states. A pro-Ukrainian investigative outlet previously found that Russia was constructing a Circularly Disposed Antenna Array (CDAA), a military grade antenna array designed for radio intelligence or communication, just south of Chernyakhovsk, Kaliningrad Oblast.[30] The CDAA may allow Russia to monitor NATO communications in Eastern Europe and the Baltic Sea, communicate with submarines operating in the Baltic Sea or northern Atlantic Ocean, and support passive intelligence gathering.
Ukrainian forces recently conducted a series of aerial and naval drone strikes against Russia and occupied Crimea, including against Russian oil infrastructure and drone production facilities. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces struck the Gazprom Neftekhim-Salavat petrochemical plant in Salavat, Republic of Bashkortostan on the night of September 23 to 24, hitting the primary oil processing unit and starting a fire.[31] The enterprise reportedly processes up to 10 million tons of oil per year and is a key producer of liquid rocket fuel in Russia. The Ukrainian General Staff also reported that Ukrainian forces struck two oil pumping stations in Volgograd Oblast: Kuzmychi-1 oil pumping station, which transports crude oil to southern Russia, and Zenzevatka oil pumping station, which transports oil through the Kuibyshev-Tikhoretsk main oil pipeline that Russia uses for oil exports through the port of Novorossiysk, Krasnodar Krai.
Geolocated footage published on September 24 shows a likely Ukrainian naval drone exploding at the port of Tuapse, Krasnodar Krai (southeast of Novorossiysk).[32] Additional geolocated footage published on September 24 shows a smoke plume in central Novorossiysk.[33] Krasnodar Krai Governor Veniamin Kondratyev claimed that Ukrainian drones hit central Novorossiysk on the afternoon of September 24.[34] The Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) confirmed on September 24 that a Ukrainian drone strike damaged a CPC office in central Novorossiysk, temporarily suspending operations.[35] Bloomberg reported on September 24, citing an unnamed source, that the Sheskharis oil port facility in Novorossiysk also stopped operations.[36] Bloomberg noted that Sheskharis and CPC together export over two million barrels a day of Russian and Kazakh oil to global markets. The Kazakhstan Energy Ministry reported that oil shipments and transportation through Novorossiysk are proceeding as usual.[37]
Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces (USF) reported that USF elements conducted a drone strike against drone production facilities near the railway station in Valuyki, Belgorod Oblast on the evening of September 23, causing a large fire.[38] NASA's Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) data shows heat anomalies at Valuyki.[39] A Russian source also claimed that there was an explosion near Belbek and Kacha air bases in occupied Crimea on the morning of September 24, likely due to a Ukrainian drone strike.[40] Sevastopol occupation governor Mikhail Razvozhaev claimed on September 24 that Russian air defenses and elements of the Black Sea Fleet shot down 16 Ukrainian drones targeting occupied Sevastopol.[41]
Kaliningrad is a justified target.
NATO will do nothing, but Ukrainian special services might just have an answer🤔