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To: gleeaikin
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 9, 2025

The Trump Administration has described Russian President Vladimir Putin's reported demands for a ceasefire in Ukraine in four different ways since August 6. The exact details of Putin's position remain unclear. German outlet BILD reported on August 9 that US Special Envoy for the Middle East Steve Witkoff misunderstood Putin's demand for Ukraine to withdraw from the remainder of Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts, in addition to the remainder of Donetsk Oblast, as an offer for Russia to withdraw from occupied Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts during the August 6 Putin-Witkoff meeting.[1] BILD reported that Witkoff also misunderstood Putin's proposal for an energy infrastructure and long-range strikes ceasefire, and that Witkoff interpreted Putin's offer as a general ceasefire that would curtail frontline military activity. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that European officials familiar with the conversation and call stated that US President Donald Trump, presumably after being briefed by Witkoff, told Ukrainian and European officials on August 6 that Putin would withdraw from occupied Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts in exchange for Ukraine ceding unoccupied areas of Donetsk Oblast.[2] The officials told WSJ that Witkoff walked back Trump's statement during a call with European officials on August 7 and stated that Russia would “both withdraw and freeze” the frontline, presumably referring to Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts. European officials reportedly asked Witkoff to further clarify Putin's demand during a call on August 8, and Witkoff stated that the “only offer” on the table was for Ukraine to unilaterally withdraw from Donetsk Oblast in exchange for a ceasefire. Ukrainian outlet Kyiv Independent reported that a source in Ukraine's Presidential Office briefed on the Putin-Witkoff meeting, presumably by Witkoff himself, stated that Putin also offered to withdraw from northeastern Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts as a “sign of goodwill” in exchange for Ukraine ceding the remainder of unoccupied Donetsk Oblast.[3] The source stated that Putin reportedly told Witkoff that Putin would be willing to freeze the frontline in Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts. Bloomberg reported on August 8 that unnamed sources stated that Putin demanded that Ukraine withdraw from the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and concede occupied Crimea to Russia in exchange for freezing the frontline in Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts and beginning negotiations on a ceasefire agreement.[4] It remains unclear, based on Western reporting, if Putin ever truly offered to withdraw from occupied Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky rejected Putin's demand.[5]

The only element of Putin's reported position common to all reports is Putin's continued demand for Ukraine to withdraw from unoccupied areas of Donetsk Oblast — a major Ukrainian concession. Conceding to such a demand would force Ukraine to abandon its “fortress belt,” the main fortified defensive line in Donetsk Oblast since 2014 — with no guarantee that fighting will not resume.[6] Ukraine's fortress belt stymied Russian advances in Donetsk Oblast in 2014 and 2022 and is still impeding Russia's efforts to seize the remainder of Donetsk Oblast in 2025, as ISW has recently described. The fortress belt is a significant obstacle to Russia's current path of advance westward in Ukraine, and surrendering the remainder of Donetsk Oblast as the prerequisite of a ceasefire with no commitment to a final peace settlement would position Russian forces extremely well to renew their attacks on more favorable terms, having avoided a long and bloody struggle for the ground.[7]

Ukrainian and European officials reportedly presented a counterproposal to US officials on August 9 as European officials continue to issue statements of support for Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity. WSJ reported on August 9 that Ukraine and European leaders proposed a counteroffer to Russian President Vladimir Putin's demands for Ukrainian territorial concessions as a precondition to ceasefire during a meeting with US Vice President JD Vance in the United Kingdom (UK) on August 9.[8] WSJ reported that the counteroffer stipulates that a full ceasefire in Ukraine must be implemented prior to territorial negotiations, in accordance with US President Donald Trump's previously articulated preferred timeline for an end to Russia's war against Ukraine.[9] WSJ reported that the counteroffer also states that territorial exchanges should be conducted in a reciprocal manner and that Ukraine must receive robust security guarantees in exchange for any Ukrainian territorial concessions to prevent future Russian aggression against Ukraine. WSJ reported that Finnish President Alexander Stubb presented the Ukrainian-European counterproposal to Trump during a phone call on August 9. European leaders, including UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron, Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys, Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braze, and Romanian Foreign Minister Toiu Oana, expressed support for Ukraine's efforts to achieve a just and lasting resolution to Russia's war on August 9.[10]

Russian officials welcomed the announcement that US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet in Alaska on August 15 and referenced Russian narratives about Russia's historical claims to Alaska. Russian Presidential Aide Yuriy Ushakov claimed that Alaska is a logical meeting place due to the fact that the United States and Russia are close neighbors across the Bering Strait and share economic interests in Alaska and the Arctic region.[11] Leading Russian negotiator and Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) CEO Kirill Dmitriev, who attended the August 6 meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US Special Envoy for the Middle East Steve Witkoff, described Alaska on August 9 as “a Russian-born American” and claimed that Alaska reflects the ties between the United States and Russia.[12] Dmitriev also noted Alaska's historic ties to the Russian Orthodox Church and Russia's past military and economic presence in Alaska.[13] Russian officials and state media have previously claimed that the United States should return Alaska to Russia. Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev claimed in January 2024 that Russia has been waiting for the United States to return Alaska “any day” in response to a US Department of State statement to the contrary.[14] Russian TV hosts and propagandists Vladimir Solovyov and Olga Skabeyeva repeatedly claimed in 2024 that the United States should return Alaska to Russia.[15] Russian State Duma Chairperson Vyacheslav Volodin claimed in July 2022 that Russia would claim Alaska as its own if the United States froze foreign-based Russian assets.[16] Russian state media outlet RT claimed in October 2018 that Russia should demand Alaska back from the United States after the United States withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty.[17]

Ukraine continues its long-range drone strike campaign against Russian military and defense industrial base (DIB) facilities. Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) reported on August 9 that it conducted a drone strike against a Russian Shahed drone warehouse in Kzyl Yul, Republic of Tatarstan and that the drone strike started a fire at the warehouse.[18] The SBU stated that Russia stored Shahed drones and related foreign-sourced components at the facility. Kzyl Yul is located roughly 43 kilometers from the Alabuga Special Economic Zone (SEZ) near Yelabuga, Republic of Tatarstan, where Russia has based a large-scale Shahed drone production facility.[19] Ukrainian outlets Suspilne and Militarnyi reported that sources within Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) stated that GUR conducted a sabotage operation in Afipsky, Krasnodar Krai on August 8, causing two explosions near a checkpoint on the Russian 90th Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade's (49th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Southern Military District [SMD]) base.[20]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-9-2025

19,063 posted on 08/09/2025 11:41:50 PM PDT by AdmSmith (GCTGATATGTCTATGATTACTCAT)
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To: gleeaikin
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 10, 2025

The United States and Ukraine's European allies agree that Europe, not the United States, will fund further military and security assistance to Ukraine. US Vice President JD Vance gave an interview to Fox News on August 10 and reiterated the Trump Administration's consistent position that the United States will no longer directly fund the Ukrainian military effort, but that Europe can continue to buy weapons from US manufacturers for Ukraine and Europe's own defensive needs.[1] North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Secretary General Mark Rutte stated in an interview with Face the Nation published on August 10 that the “floodgate” of lethal aid packages to Ukraine opened after US President Donald Trump met with Rutte on July 14 and that Canada and European NATO allies will continue to fund weapons for Ukraine.[2] Rutte stated that these deliveries are in addition to Europe's investments in European and Ukrainian defense industrial facilities and that there will be additional European aid package announcements in the coming weeks. Western outlets reported on August 7 that NATO allies, the European Parliament, and several international banks — including US JP Morgan Chase, German Commerzbank, and Canadian RBC Capital Markets — are backing the new Bank for Defense, Security, and Resilience (DSRB), an international bank that will specialize in lending to NATO and allied countries for defense procurement.[3] Western media reported that the DSRB will help NATO states reach their goal of committing five percent of gross domestic product (GDP) to defense spending and that more than 40 unspecified countries are expected to become shareholders. UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves and UK Defense Secretary John Healy endorsed the DSRB.[4] The DSRB announcement signals NATO allies’ commitment to increasing defense spending, and European NATO members will likely leverage the bank to sustain investments in Ukraine's defense industrial base (DIB), to launch further joint production initiatives with Ukraine, and to fund defense production intended for Ukraine and NATO allies’ own stocks.

US President Donald Trump is reportedly considering a trilateral meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during the August 15 summit in Alaska. Reuters reported on August 9, citing sources in the White House, that Trump is open to holding a trilateral summit in Alaska with Zelensky and Putin but that the White House is currently preparing for a bilateral meeting between Trump and Putin.[5] CNN and NBC reported on August 10, citing senior US officials and sources familiar with the matter, that the White House has not ruled out the possibility of inviting Zelensky to Alaska.[6] One of the sources noted that any meeting with Zelensky would likely occur after the Trump-Putin meeting. Vance told Fox News on August 10 that the United States is trying to schedule a trilateral meeting between Putin, Trump, and Zelensky in order to negotiate an end to the war.[7] Vance stated that Putin's refusal to meet with Zelensky has been one of the most significant impediments to the peace process.

The Kremlin is attempting to use the upcoming Alaska summit to divide the United States from Europe rather than engage in meaningful peace efforts. Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev claimed on August 10 on both his English and Russian language Telegram accounts that Europe is trying to prevent the United States from helping to stop the war in Ukraine.[8] Russian Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR) Head Leonid Slutsky claimed on August 9 that European countries are pursuing an anti-Russian policy and trying to prevent a quick peace settlement in Ukraine.[9] Russian political scientist Sergei Markov told the Washington Post on August 10 that Russia's main interest in the Alaska summit is to portray Ukraine and Europe rather than Russia as the obstacles to peace in Ukraine.[10] Markov stated that Russia refuses to take any steps backward and that the only compromise that Russia is willing to consider is halting military efforts to seize Odesa and Kharkiv oblasts and Kherson and Zaporizhzhia cities. Markov expressed hope that Trump will realize that Zelensky is the main reason for Russia's war in Ukraine and that European leaders are the second reason for the war, rather than Russia.

European and Ukrainian officials, including Zelensky, have consistently demonstrated their willingness to promote and engage in good faith negotiations and impose substantive ceasefire agreements to progress the peace initiative, which Russia has consistently rejected in pursuit of incremental battlefield gains and additional concessions from Ukraine and the West.[11] The Kremlin has long attempted to weaken cohesion between the United States, Europe, and Ukraine as part of a wider campaign to deter further Western support to Ukraine and distract from Russia's intransigence regarding the peace process and unwillingness to compromise on Putin's original war demands.[12] ISW continues to assess that Russia remains unwilling to compromise on its long-standing war aims of preventing Ukraine from joining NATO, regime change in Ukraine in favor of a pro-Russian proxy government, and Ukraine's demilitarization - all of which would ensure Ukraine's full capitulation - and that Russia will very likely violate and weaponize any future ceasefire agreements in Ukraine while blaming Ukraine for the violations as it repeatedly did in Spring 2025.[13]

Ukraine's European allies continue to signal their support for Ukraine and US-led peace efforts ahead of the Alaska summit. French President Emmanuel Macron, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Finnish President Alexander Stubb, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen published a joint statement on August 9 expressing support for US-led peace efforts and calling for Ukrainian and European involvement in future peace negotiations.[14] The European leaders called for a ceasefire or reduction of hostilities before negotiations begin and stated that the current frontline should be the starting point for negotiations. The leaders also called for robust and credible security guarantees that protect Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity. The leaders expressed their commitment to the principle that international borders cannot be changed by force and reiterated that Russia's invasion of Ukraine violates the UN Charter, the Helsinki Act, and the Budapest Memorandum, among other Russian international agreements.

Russian tank losses appear to be declining as Russian forces continue to deprioritize mechanized assaults across the frontline, indicating that the Russian command recognizes that it cannot protect vehicles from Ukrainian drone strike capabilities on the frontline and near rear. An intelligence focused open source that tracks Russian vehicle losses in Ukraine reported on August 10 that the rate of Russian tank losses continues to decline and reached its lowest levels of the war in June and July 2025.[15] The source stated that it has visually confirmed 22 Russian tank losses in June 2025 and 19 Russian tank losses in July 2025, down from 116 confirmed tank losses in June 2024 and 97 confirmed tank losses in July 2024.[16] The source indicated that Russian tank loss rates began to decrease in December 2024, which is consistent with the Russian military command's theater-wide shift from costly mechanized assaults toward gradual, creeping infantry assaults.[17] The source stated that Russian T-62 and T-90 loss rates remain consistent, T-72 loss rates have declined in proportion to the overall decline of Russian tank losses, and T-80 tank loss rates have significantly declined.[18] Russia has likely exhausted much or all of its stockpiles of T-80 tanks and is likely conserving existing stores and stockpiling newer tank models while depleting stores of other tanks and armored vehicles, including the older T-62. Russian forces have conducted relatively few but costly mechanized assaults in Ukraine thus far in 2025 due to the effectiveness of Ukrainian drone strikes against armored vehicles, instead prioritizing infantry-led assaults and assaults on expendable motorcycles and other light vehicles.[19] Russian forces have been using armored vehicles to transport infantry to forward positions for infantry assaults, constraining Russian advances to foot pace and preventing Russia from using mechanized maneuver warfare to exploit breakthroughs and achieve operationally significant advances.[20] It remains unclear why Russia continues to invest significantly in tank and armored vehicle development and production while Russian forces are largely unable to field these vehicles for their intended purposes, as Ukrainian forces maintain the ability to inflict high frontline and near rear armored vehicle losses with drone reconnaissance and strikes.[21] Russia may be preparing for the eventuality that Russian forces will become able to counter Ukrainian drone operations well enough to be able to field armored vehicles and restore at least some maneuver to the battlefield, but ISW has observed no indications of Russian technological advances in this direction.

Ukrainian drone manufacturers have developed a new drone capable of intercepting higher-speed Russian drones. Representatives of the Ukrainian drone manufacturer Besomar told Ukrainian outlet Militarnyi on August 10 that Besomar developed a reusable interceptor drone that is capable of downing Russian drones at speeds up to 200 kilometers per hour, including Geran-type long-range strike drones.[31] The interceptor drone is equipped with a shotgun and an automated firing system that can hold between two and four shots. The interceptor drone is also equipped with a digital communications system with a frequency response that allows the drone to approach its target unnoticed by the Russian drone's evasion systems. The drone can fire manually or automatically due to a sensor in the nose of the drone that the drone operator can activate to initiate a shot when a target enters the drone's range.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-10-2025

19,076 posted on 08/11/2025 4:12:04 AM PDT by AdmSmith (GCTGATATGTCTATGATTACTCAT)
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