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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 8, 2025

Russian officials have repeatedly signaled that the Kremlin has wider territorial ambitions in Ukraine, including in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Artem Zhoga, the former commander of the 80th ”Sparta” Spetsnaz Battalion (51st CAA, formerly 1st Donetsk People's Republic Army Corps [DNR AC], Southern Military District [SMD]) and current presidential representative to the Ural Federal Okrug, claimed on June 8 that the 90th Tank Division is “closing the strategic gates to the Dnipro [River].”[8] Zhoga’s reference to the Dnipro River is consistent with other Russian officials’ calls for Russia to seize territory near the river in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Russian officials have called for Russia to control the areas of the Dnipro River that pass through Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and routinely invoke the Kremlin's concept of “Novorossiya,” which Russian officials have defined as all of eastern and southern Ukraine.[9] ISW observed reported in May 2025 that Russia was setting conditions to establish permanent control over the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), suggesting that Russia may plan to occupy and annex Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.[10] Ukrainian Presidential Office Deputy Head Colonel Pavlo Palisa also stated on June 5 Russia intends to occupy the entirety of Ukraine on the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River, including eastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, by the end of 2026.[11]

Russia continued to baselessly accuse Ukraine of failing to repatriate the bodies of killed in action (KIA) soldiers on June 8 — part of the Kremlin's efforts to undermine mutually agreed upon confidence-building measures with Ukraine. Russian First Deputy Chief of Information of the General Staff's Main Directorate (GRU) Lieutenant General Alexander Zorin claimed on June 8 that Russia delivered the bodies of 1,212 KIA Ukrainians to an exchange point in accordance with purported agreements made during the June 2 Ukrainian-Russian talks in Istanbul.[12] Zorin baselessly claimed that no exchange took place on June 7 because Ukraine did not respond to Russia's messages about the exchange, that Russia continues to wait for confirmation from Ukrainian officials, and that Ukraine is postponing the exchange.[13] Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Head Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov stated on June 8 that authorities in Ukraine and Russia received notice on June 3 — the day following the most recent bilateral talks in Istanbul — that the prisoner of war (POW) and KIA exchanges that Ukraine and Russia agreed upon in Istanbul would occur during at a future date during the week of June 9 to 16.[14] GUR Spokesperson Andriy Yusov stated on June 7 that Ukraine and Russia have not yet established the exact date of the KIA exchange and that Ukraine is still preparing for the repatriation exchange.[15] ISW continues to assess that the Kremlin's unwillingness to engage in good faith in lower-level confidence-building measures designed to facilitate larger peace negotiations further demonstrates Russia's disinterest in peace negotiations.[16]

The Kremlin appears to have orchestrated a concerted media campaign that aimed to use the purportedly agreed-upon KIA exchange in order to discredit Ukraine and promote Russia's justifications for its war to both domestic and international audiences. Zorin made his claims during a press conference for domestic Russian and foreign journalists in front of refrigerated transport trucks reportedly holding the bodies of Ukrainian KIA servicemembers.[17] Yusov stated that Russian officials filmed the videos of the refrigerated trucks and held the press conference for journalists on Russian territory far from the agreed upon exchange location, however.[18] Journalists from Russian and international media outlets, including Russian Ministry of Defense-run TV network Zvezda, Russian state media TV channel Channel One (Perviy Kanal), Kremlin-affiliated outlet Izvestia, Hezbollah-affiliated Al Mayadeen TV outlet, and Qatari-owned Al Araby al Jadeed TV outlet, attended the press conference.[19] Kremlin newswire TASS amplified footage of an Al Mayadeen journalist claiming that Ukraine's alleged refusal to accept the KIA bodies shows the “Nazi nature” of the Ukrainian authorities and footage of an Al Araby journalist claiming that Russia continues to fulfill the commitments it made in Istanbul.[20] Russian officials likely invited foreign and domestic news outlets to the press conference in order to promote to both foreign and domestic audiences the Russian narratives that Ukraine is spoiling confidence-building measures and peace negotiations and to posture the international community, particularly the Middle East, as supporting Russia's justifications for its full-scale invasion and demands of regime change in Kyiv.[21]

Russian officials appear to be setting conditions to withdraw from international arms control treaties, likely as part of preparation for a potential future war with NATO. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov claimed in an interview with Kremlin newswire TASS published on June 7 that Russia's “unilateral moratorium” on the deployment of land-based missiles prohibited under the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty is nearing its “logical conclusion,” suggesting that Russia may openly deploy such missiles in the future.[22] Ryabkov also claimed that the United States and its Western allies did not appreciate or reciprocate Russia's “restraint” following the United States’ withdrawal from the INF Treaty in 2019. Ryabkov's claim that Russia has continued to abide by the INF Treaty since the US withdrawal are false. The United States suspended its participation in the INF Treaty on February 1, 2019 and withdrew from the treaty in August 2019 due to Russia's development, testing, and deployment of intermediate-range 9M729 (SSC-8) missiles in violation of the treaty.[23] Russia suspended its participation in the INF Treaty in response to the US suspension on February 2, 2019. Ryabkov's allegations of Russia's continued adherence to the treaty are likely part of the Kremlin's ongoing efforts to falsely portray itself as a genuine participant in de-escalation efforts and to portray the West and NATO as threats to Russia's security. The Kremlin may leverage the war in Ukraine to renounce its participation in other international arms control treaties as it prepares for a larger confrontation with the West.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-8-2025

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 9, 2025

The Kremlin appears to be dangling the prospect of bilateral arms control talks with the United States to extract preemptive concessions from the United States about the war in Ukraine. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov responded on June 9 to a question about Russia ending its moratorium on the deployment of land-based missiles prohibited under the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty by claiming that Russia retains “freedom of action” - mirroring Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov's June 7 claim that Russia's “unilateral moratorium” on the deployment of such missiles is nearing its “logical conclusion.”[13] Ryabkov claimed on June 9 that Russia and United States need a “reliable ... military-political foundation” in order to resume arms control talks and that the United States must be willing to respect Russia's “fundamental interests” in order to normalize bilateral relations.[14] Ryabkov claimed that the United States’ actions regarding the war in Ukraine could demonstrate the seriousness of the United States’ intentions to improve relations with Russia. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov further claimed on June 9 that Russia will be ready to resume strategic stability talks with the United States when the discussions will be on equal footing.[15] Kremlin officials appear to be asserting that Russia's willingness to engage in arms control talks with the United States in the future is contingent on Russia gaining preemptive concessions from the United States about the war in Ukraine. Russia notably violated the INF Treaty by developing, testing, and deploying intermediate-range missiles, leading the United States to suspend its participation in the treaty in February 2019.[16] ISW assessed in early 2025 that Russia was using economic incentives that are unrelated to the war in Ukraine to extract concessions from the United States about the war in Ukraine, and Russia's use of incentives related to arms control talks appear to be the latest iteration of this overall effort.[17]

Western security officials continue to assess that Russia is preparing for a protracted confrontation with NATO. NATO General Secretary Mark Rutte stated on June 9 that intelligence assesses that Russia will produce 1,500 tanks, 3,000 armored vehicles, and 200 Iskander missiles in 2025.[18] It is unclear whether these vehicle production assessments are only referring to Russia's production of new vehicles or also include vehicles from Russia's Soviet-era stockpiles that Russia is refurbishing. Rutte stated that Russia is cooperating with the People's Republic of China (PRC), North Korea, and Iran and that Russia is reconstituting its forces with Chinese technology. Rutte announced that NATO states’ defense ministers agreed on June 5 to increase air and missile defense spending by 400 percent in order to protect against large-scale drone and missile strikes like those that Russia is launching against Ukraine. Rutte also stated that Russia could be capable of launching military operations against NATO within five years. ISW assesses that Russia does not need to reconstitute its forces to pre-2022 levels before posing a threat to NATO states and could launch military operations against a NATO state before 2030.

Russian forces conducted the largest combined missile and drone strike of the war overnight on June 8 and 9. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 499 projectiles, including 479 Shahed and decoy drones from the directions of Kursk and Oryol cities; Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; Shatalovo, Smolensk Oblast; and Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai.[19] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces also launched four Kh-47M2 “Kinzhal” aeroballistic missiles from Tambov Oblast; 10 Kh-101 cruise missiles from Saratov Oblast; three Kh-22 cruise missiles and two Kh-31P anti-radar missiles from airspace over the Black Sea; and one Kh-35 anti-ship cruise missile from occupied Crimea. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces shot down 277 Shahed and decoy drones and that 183 drones “lost” or suppressed by Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) systems. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces shot down all 10 Kh-101 cruise missiles, all four Kh-47M2 Kinzhal missiles, two Kh-22 cruise missiles, both of the Kh-31P anti-radar missiles, and the one Kh-35 cruise missile. Ukrainian officials reported that the Russian strikes hit Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Kyiv, Rivne, and Volyn oblasts, damaging civilian infrastructure.[20]

Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Colonel Yurii Ihnat stated on June 9 that Russian forces continue to adapt their strike packages against Ukraine, using large numbers of drones to overwhelm Ukrainian air defense systems and distract from subsequent cruise and ballistic missile launches.[21] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that the June 8 to 9 strike series was part of Russia's response to Ukraine's ”Operation Spider Web” long-range drone strike series against Russian air bases on June 1.[22] ISW has notably observed a significant increase in the scale of Russia's drone and missile strike packages against Ukraine prior to ”Operation Spider Web.”[23]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-9-2025