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To: PIF

“Ukraine will likely be in a significantly improved operational position by June 2024...

...The Russian military command will likely have to consider if the intended areas and objectives of its summer offensive effort are now feasible.”

It is a new ball game, and Russian Forces (and their National finances) are going to bleed much more heavily than they might have been hoping. Time for all the players to re-assess their odds.


1,483 posted on 04/21/2024 6:21:17 PM PDT by BeauBo
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To: BeauBo

Reporting From Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU/videos

The complete transcript.

Great news! YouTube finally investigated the issue and restored all 16 channels! First of all, let me start by acknowledging and apologizing for the experience you have had so far.

[ ! Russians Pressure Ukrainian Flanks in Chasiv Yar ]

Day 788: Apr 21

Today, there are a lot of updates from the Bakhmut direction.

Here, the most intense clashes took place on the northern flank.

The intensity of Russian assaults has substantially increased in this area since Russians established control of the small forest east of Chasiv Yar two weeks ago.

As you know, Russians previously advanced for one kilometer across open fields to reach the forest and establish their presence there.

While the assaults across open fields resulted in a high loss rate among assault units, once Russians took the forest, they placed themselves in a very convenient position.

Positions in dense forests enabled Russians to conceal large force concentrations from Ukrainian drones, which would otherwise allow artillery fire correction and FPV drone strikes.

For that reason, Russian forces decided to take time to regroup and prepare fresh troops to resume assault operations.

They agreed that their next direction of assaults would be Bohdanivka, which Russians want to use as a staging ground to launch further assaults that could put Kanal district of Chasiv Yar in a semi-encirclement.

Many of these reinforcements never reached the front, as Ukrainians constantly observed vital supply roads and struck them.

Ukrainian fighters from the 45th Artillery Brigade targeted Russian reinforcements on the way to the forest. In one of the videos they shared, we could see a BMP driving across the field until it got immobilized by a mine set up by a drone.

After that, over 20 Russian soldiers dismounted and tried to take cover at a nearby tree line. Unfortunately for the Russians, they became a target of Ukrainian cluster munitions and artillery fire that killed most of them, while landmines finished off the others.

To prevent Ukrainians from striking their forces in the open, Russians launched massive air strikes against Ukrainian positions in the town.

Russian sources published footage of aerial bombings with SU-34s that launched their glide bombs from afar at Ukrainian fire positions in the Kanal district.

Additional footage by Ukrainian fighters shows Russian SU-25s safely flying directly above Ukrainian positions in the town, providing close air support to Russian ground forces.

Ukrainian fighters reported that Russians established total air superiority over Chasiv Yar and surrounding areas, while Russian jets also managed to fly as far as Kostyantinivka.

With Ukrainian fire positions in the high-rise buildings of the Kanal district suppressed, Russians launched a major assault on Ukrainian positions in Bohdanivka from the forest.

As previously said, Russian frontal assaults on the village failed, but the successful Russian flank attacks put Ukrainians at risk of being placed in a pocket. Therefore, Ukrainians withdrew from their positions in the town.

Even though Russians are establishing a permanent presence in the village, the central Ukrainian fortifications are on heights to the north of the settlement, from which Ukrainians exercise fire control over the area and monitor the movement of Russian troops.

Until Russians take these heights, they won’t be able to establish complete control of the village, which is mainly in the grey zone.

To deny Ukrainians fire control over the village, Russians would need to launch an attack from the northeast of the town along the hills, but instead, Russians chose another vector of assault.

Russians chose to fight through another forest to the southwest of Bohdanivka and north of the Kanal district.

This way, Russians could reach the Siversky-Donets canal and cut off one of two bridges supplying the Kanal district while maintaining fire control over the main bridge.

In preparation for these assaults, Russians deployed a small reconnaissance group in a suicide operation to test Ukrainian defenses, but this only resulted in the destruction of the Russian group at the bridge over the canal.

However, the Russian commanders seemed to be satisfied with the results of this operation, so the Russians started accumulating forces for the next assault in Bohdanivka.

Ukrainians understand this, and for that reason, they are targeting Russian forces concentrations within the village.

The second Russian vector of assault south of the canal micro district is through the forest northwest of Ivanka.

Ukrainian sources confirm that Russians advanced along the forests and are close to reaching the Siversky-Donets canal

these attack vectors show that Russians are trying to engulf the canal district from two sides and put it into a pocket

Russians chose such an approach over frontal assaults that would otherwise produce small gains at attritional costs, as long as Ukrainian Defenders supplied essential materials across the canal

If offensive operations are carried out to the Northeast and southeast of the canal district, it would create a situation where Ukrainian supplies to the district could be cut off

If Russians achieved that, it would make it easier for them to launch frontal assaults, provided they manage to reduce the Ukrainian supplies to the positions in the high-rise area

However, such an operation can cause significant problems for the Russians, as their lines are overextended, making sustaining and supplying dispositions much more challenging

Strained logistics and overstretched troops make the situation easier for Ukrainians, as they can launch multiple assaults on Russian flanks from all sides

This especially applies to drone strikes, as Ukrainians can deploy multiple drone detachments to corrupt any attacks

The main advantage of drones over troops, relocating troops to assist friendly units, is a long and time consuming process, while drones can do this easily at any given time


1,484 posted on 04/22/2024 3:37:45 AM PDT by PIF (They came for me and mine ... now its your turn)
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To: BeauBo

The better hurry as the Russians are on the verge of taking Chasiv Yar.


1,485 posted on 04/22/2024 3:40:08 AM PDT by PIF (They came for me and mine ... now its your turn)
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