The Kremlin may be setting informational conditions to justify an influx of North Korean citizens arriving in Russia to join either the Russian workforce or the Russian military. Russian Ambassador to North Korea Alexander Matsegora claimed that North Korea and Russia are increasing educational cooperation and that professors from North Korean universities will travel to Moscow, Kazan, Novosibirsk, and Vladivostok cities “for a long period of time” to teach Korean in Russian universities and that Russian universities are preparing three-month internships for North Korean students.[17] Matsegora’s statement follows South Korea's National Intelligence Service (NIS) report on February 9 that North Koreans are increasingly entering Russia on student visas to take construction jobs.[18] UN Security Council (UNSC) Resolution 2397, which Russia voted for in 2017, prohibits North Korea from sending its citizens abroad for work and mandated that all UN member states expel all North Koreans “earning income” abroad by December 2019.[19] Matsegora’s statement that North Korean professors are coming to Russia for work would likely violate UNSC Resolution 2397. Russia vetoed in March 2024 an annual UNSC resolution extending a monitoring panel tracking adherence to UN sanctions against North Korea.[20]
A Russian official claimed that Russia is sending experienced Russian military personnel to North Korea for medical treatment. Matsegora claimed that Russia has sent “hundreds” of wounded soldiers who fought against Ukraine to North Korea for rehabilitation and medical care and that North Korea refused Russia's offer of financial compensation for the medical care, food, and other expenses related to the Russians’ stay in North Korea.[21] The Russian military command has reportedly been sending wounded personnel back into assault groups without treatment, demonstrating a general disregard for soldiers’ health in the Russian military and calling into question official Russian claims to be sending Russian soldiers abroad for treatment, particularly to North Korea.[22] The arrival of combat experienced Russian soldiers, particularly if they include officers or non-commissioned officers, to North Korea may allow the Russian military to work with North Korean forces and disseminate lessons from the war in Ukraine while ostensibly recuperating.
The pro-Russian Moldovan breakaway republic of Transnistria refused aid from the EU to resolve its gas crisis, demonstrating Russia's continued economic influence over Transnistria and the Kremlin's prioritization of the region. Moldovan Prime Minister Dorin Recean stated on February 10 that Transnistria rejected 60 million euros (about $61.8 million) in EU aid to support continued gas deliveries to the breakaway republic, refusing to accept the aid's condition that Tiraspol gradually increase tariffs for consumers.[23] Recean outlined the scheme through which Transnistria will receive gas from the European market starting February 13. MET Gas and Energy Marketing, a Hungarian natural gas trader on the European market, signed a contract with Moldovagaz to transport gas for Transnistria to the Moldovan border; Dubai-based JNX General Trading LLC will pay for the gas; Moldovagaz and Tiraspoltransgaz reached an agreement to transit the gas through Moldova to Transnistria; and Transnistria will pay the transit costs in advance. Recean noted that Moldovan authorities have vetted both companies and did not find any violations of international or Moldovan law. Transnistria will reportedly undertake measures to demonstrate its “openness” in return, including releasing political prisoners, continuing to air Moldovan public television, and removing 11 checkpoints that Tiraspol installed in 2022. Recean stated that Tiraspol refused the EU offer of aid under pressure from Moscow, and a senior Moldovan government official told Politico that Russia blocked the EU-proposed solution.[24] Transnistrian President Vadim Krasnoselsky claimed on February 10 that Russian “credit and functional support” made the Hungarian supply scheme possible and thanked the Russian Ministry of Energy for its assistance.[25] Russia's allocation of funds for Transnistria’s purchase of European gas demonstrates that influence over Transnistria remains a priority for the Kremlin, despite Russia's ongoing economic strains at home.[26] Russia's role in financing the gas purchases indicates that Russia will continue to be the sole economic backer of the breakaway republic, despite select Transnistrian authorities’ Western-leaning political and economic interests.[27]
Russian milbloggers continue to complain about the systemic issue of Russian forces submitting false reports to Russian military authorities and of high-level Russian officers micromanaging tactical-level units on the battlefield. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces have been falsifying reports about the battlefield situation since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022, leading commanders to mistrust their subordinates and feel the need to control the situation themselves.[73] The milblogger complained that commanders often take control of lower echelon units in “acute” situations but do not take small details, such as details related to the unit's force composition or the soldiers’ strengths, into consideration. The milblogger further complained that this issue is keeping junior commanders from gaining combat experience. Another Russian milblogger claimed that Russian generals do not understand theories of war or how to manage at their appropriate level.[74] The milblogger complained that there are not enough tasks for the many generals in the Russian military, so the generals turn to lower-level tasks to justify their role in the military. A third milblogger and former Storm-Z instructor reiterated that Russian forces in the Siversk direction have been submitting inaccurate reports about alleged Russian battlefield successes since falsely claiming the seizure of Bilohorivka in May 2024.[75] The milblogger called for reforms to the Russian military such that commanders at the brigade level and higher are only working on solving operational-tactical and operational-level issues.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-10-2025
professors from North Korean universities will travel to Moscow, Kazan, Novosibirsk, and Vladivostok cities “for a long period of time” to teach Korean in Russian universities and that Russian universities are preparing three-month internships for North Korean students
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Soon to be the national language of what was once called Russia.
Russian officials are reportedly attempting to constrain Russian milblogger reporting about the current frontline in Kursk Oblast, likely in response to concerns that the West will pressure Russia into trading Russian territory for occupied Ukrainian territory. Several Russian milbloggers who regularly criticize the Russian military's conduct of the war in Ukraine claimed on February 10 and 11 that unspecified actors are calling for Russian authorities to charge the milbloggers with discrediting the Russian military after the milbloggers reported about recent Ukrainian advances southeast of Sudzha.[3] The milbloggers claimed that the Russian military command is targeting them for publishing information about successful Ukrainian attacks near Cherkasskaya Konopelka and Fanaseyevka, and one milblogger claimed that the recent Ukrainian attacks forced the Russian military command to delay plans for a future offensive operation in the area. The latter claim indicates that the Russian military command may have been planning to conduct an offensive operation to seize Sudzha, a prominent gas transit hub and the main town that Ukrainian forces control in Kursk Oblast.
The Russian military appears increasingly anxious to consolidate control over reporting about the situation in Kursk Oblast as Zelensky continues to express his intent to leverage Russian territory in future peace negotiations. Zelensky stated during his interview with The Guardian that he intends to use Ukrainian-held territory in Kursk Oblast to secure the return of Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory or “something else” during future peace negotiations with Russia.[4] Zelensky noted that it is important to retake all of occupied Ukraine and did not speculate on which area of occupied Ukraine he would consider trading Russian territory for. Russian President Vladimir Putin likely intends to expel Ukraine from Kursk Oblast, or at least from Sudzha, before beginning peace negotiations in order to avoid having to trade occupied Ukrainian territory for Russian territory.
The Kremlin may be setting informational conditions for possible false-flag attacks in the Baltic Sea and against Russian opposition politicians living abroad in order to discredit Ukraine. The Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) claimed on February 11 that Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) with assistance from unspecified Western countries intend to blow up a foreign vessel in the Baltic Sea to prompt NATO to block Russia's access to the Baltic Sea and start a direct armed conflict between Russia and NATO.[16] The SVR claimed that unspecified European intelligence services and Ukraine's GUR also plan to assassinate Russian opposition figures living abroad and blame Russia for the assassinations to undermine future peace negotiations. Russia's SVR has previously accused Ukraine and other Western states of planning false flag attacks to discredit Ukraine and drive a wedge in Western unity behind Ukraine, particularly at critical moments in Western discussions regarding support for Ukraine and a possible peace plan.[17]
Russian regional authorities are reportedly reducing payments due to regional budget deficits for Russian soldiers who received minor injuries. Russian opposition outlet Verstka reported on February 11 that at least 42 Russian federal subjects and occupation authorities in Crimea introduced a reduced payment for Russian soldiers who sustained minor injuries.[74] Russian authorities previously offered a 500,000-ruble ($5,181) payment to all wounded Russian soldiers regardless of the severity of the injury. The Russian federal government published a decree in November 2024 establishing reduced payments for Russian soldiers who receive only minor injuries in battle rather than providing blanket payments to all injured personnel. Verstka noted that some Russian federal subjects, including Kamchatka Krai, changed their injury compensation system to align with the federal system in recent months, while others, including Amur Oblast, already had payment systems similar to the federal government's new system. The Kremlin has recently taken measures to reduce various payments to Russian soldiers, including one-time recruitment bonuses, amid other indicators that the Kremlin is concerned about the long-term costs of the war and ongoing wartime pressures on the Russian economy.[75]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-11-2025