North Korean forces are continuing to experience high casualty rates amid recent confirmation of the first captured North Korean soldier in Kursk Oblast. White House National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby stated on December 27 that North Korean forces suffered around 1,000 casualties over the past week in Kursk Oblast (roughly December 20 to 27) and that the Russian command is using — and North Korean authorities are permitting Russia to use — lower and higher-ranking North Korean soldiers in infantry-led assaults without armored vehicle support.[5] Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on December 23 that over 3,000 North Korean personnel have been killed or wounded in Kursk Oblast, roughly a fourth of the 12,000 total reported North Korean personnel in Kursk Oblast.[6] South Korea's National Intelligence Service (NIS) confirmed on December 26, following consultations with Ukrainian intelligence, that Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) captured a wounded North Korean soldier in Kursk Oblast and Ukrainian sources posted images allegedly showing the captured North Korean soldier.[7] ISW is unable to verify the images, however.
Finnish authorities seized the Russian-owned Eagle S crude oil tanker on suspicion that the vessel was recently involved in damaging undersea electricity and telecommunication cables in the Baltic Sea but noted that it is too soon to conclude that Russia is behind the cable disruptions. Finnish authorities seized the Russian-owned Eagle S crude oil tanker traveling from St. Petersburg to Egypt in the Gulf of Finland on December 26 on suspicion of the vessel's potential involvement in damaging the Estlink 2 electricity cable, which transports electricity between Estonia and Finland, and several other telecommunication cables between Finland, Estonia, and Germany on December 25.[16] Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo announced on December 25 that Finland had opened an investigation into the source of the damage, which significantly reduced the cable's capacity.[17] Orpo stated on December 26 that it is too early in the investigation to conclude that Russia is behind the cable disruptions.[18] Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal stated during a news conference on December 26 that cable repairs will take months to complete.[19] Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur announced on December 27 that Estonia deployed naval patrols to protect the Estlink 1 undersea cable and that Estonia will consult with NATO military officials.[20] NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte spoke with Finnish President Alex Stubb on December 27 about the ongoing investigation into potential sabotage of the cables and announced that NATO will consequently enhance its military presence in the Baltic Sea.[21] Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov declined to comment on December 27 on Finland's detention of the tanker.[22] A source reportedly familiar with the tanker and who provided commercial maritime services to the tanker as recently as seven months ago told shipping news outlet Lloyd's List on December 27 that the tanker is equipped with transmitting and receiving devices that enabled the tanker to monitor and record the radio frequencies of NATO ships and aircraft operating in the area.[23] The source further claimed that Russian authorities offloaded the devices for analysis upon reaching Russia and that the Kremlin is deploying Russian-linked merchant ships to the Baltic Sea for spying and sabotage activities.
Russian federal subjects (regions) are continuing to increase the value of enlistment bonuses to incentivize military recruitment. Samara Oblast Governor Vyacheslav Fedorishchev announced December 26 that the region is offering a 3.6 million ruble ($34,000) enlistment bonus for each recruit interested in signing a Russian military service contract between January 1, 2025 and February 1, 2025.[89] Samara Oblast recently increased one-time enlistment bonus from 1.2 million rubles ($11,357) to two million rubles ($18,912) in October 2024, and these frequent financial increases likely indicate that Samara Oblast is facing challenges to recruit personnel.[90]
Ukrainian outlet Informatsiynyi Soprotyv (Informational Resistance) reported on December 27 that Russian forces have been using 122mm – ZOF56IM1-1 artillery ammunition since 2023 that resemble 122mm high-explosive fragmentation ammunition for Chinese-made Type 96 howitzers.[93] Informatsiynyi Soprotyv noted that the Russian ammunition is similar the shape, color, and shell boxes of Chinese-made ammunition. US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell told reporters on September 10 that Beijing was supplying Moscow with unspecified components that unambiguously support Russia's military in exchange for access to advanced Russian military technology.[94]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-27-2024
xx
In July, Lloyd's List reported the serious deficiencies on Eagle S that compromised environmental and crew safety, and underscored the poor maintenance and absence of adherence to regulatory and technical standards for the wider dark fleet.
The source has since provided additional information, telling Lloyd's List that an unauthorised person, who was not a seafarer, had been identified on board Eagle S.They said listening and recording equipment was brought on to the 20-year-old tanker via “huge portable suitcases” along with “many laptops” that had keyboards for Turkish and Russian languages when calling at Türkiye and Russia.
The equipment was kept on the bridge or in the “monkey island”, they said. The monkey island is the top-most place on the ship. The transmitting and receiving devices were used to record all radio frequencies, and upon reaching Russia were offloaded for analysis. “They were monitoring all Nato naval ships and aircraft,” Lloyd's List was told. “They had all details on them. They were just matching their frequencies. “Russians, Turkish, Indian radio officers were operating it.” Eagle S also dropped “sensors-type devices” in the English Channel during a transit, they said.
They said no further equipment returned to the ship after it was offloaded for analysis, to their knowledge, but other devices were placed on another related tanker, Swiftsea Rider.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 28, 2024
Ukrainian forces recently struck a Russian Shahed drone storage, maintenance, and repair facility in Oryol City, Oryol Oblast. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on December 28 that Ukrainian forces struck the facility on December 26 and that the strike significantly reduced Russia’s ability to conduct Shahed strikes against Ukraine.[9] Russian opposition outlet Astra, citing unspecified sources, reported that Ukraine struck the facility with at least three Storm Shadow missiles on the afternoon of December 26 and that the strike wounded and killed nine Russian servicemembers.[10] Satellite imagery indicates that Russian forces began constructing the facility in August 2024 and may have completed construction in November or early December 2024.[11]
Russian authorities continue to establish a legal basis to remove the Taliban and Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) from the Russian government’s official list of banned terrorist organizations. Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law on December 28 allowing the Russian government to remove organizations from Russia’s list of terrorist organizations.[12] Russian milbloggers noted that the decree will facilitate Russia’s rapprochement with the Taliban, and one milblogger claimed that the Taliban has demonstrated their intentions to bring peace to Afghanistan, which will open new trade routes for Russia.[13] ISW previously observed that Russian authorities are preparing legal mechanisms to remove the Taliban from the list, and Putin’s decree is likely one of the final steps in this process.[14] Putin’s decree also establishes a legal basis for the Russian government to remove other organizations, including HTS, from its list of banned terrorist organizations as part of Russia’s efforts to develop positive relations with the HTS-led interim government in Syria and secure guarantees for the continued operations of Russia’s military bases in Syria.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-28-2024