Attack On Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine (2 year anniversary)

ORYX ^ | Since February 24, 2022 and daily | ORYX

[SpeedyInTexas]

This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here. Loitering munitions, drones used as unmanned bait, civilian vehicles and derelict equipment are not included in this list. All possible effort has gone into avoiding duplicate entries and discerning the status of equipment between captured or abandoned. Many of the entries listed as 'abandoned' will likely end up captured or destroyed. Similarly, some of the captured equipment might be destroyed if it can't be recovered. When a vehicle is captured and then lost in service with its new owners, it is only added as a loss of the original operator to avoid double listings. When the origin of a piece of equipment can't be established, it's not included in the list. The Soviet flag is used when the equipment in question was produced prior to 1991. This list is constantly updated as additional footage becomes available.

[SpeedyInTexas]

“An oil depot in Svetlograd, Stavropol Territory, was attacked by a UAV. “

https://x.com/Heroiam_Slava/status/1852252060277686335

[SpeedyInTexas]

Cooks final ratings:

“Republicans maintain Senate edge as battleground states remain Toss Ups. Our final projection is a GOP gain of +2 to +5 seats.”

“NEW @CookPolitical : in our final House ratings, we’re shifting six races towards Dems and two towards Republicans. Expect anything from a GOP gain of +5 seats to a Dem gain of +10 seats (Dems need +4). “

[PIF]

Expect anything from a GOP gain of +5 seats to a Dem gain of +10 seats

—
Really nailed that one down, not.

[BeauBo]

Gazprom’s third quarter results have been posted, and they are even worse than this time last year.

Last year was a big net loss for the year, for what has historically been a cash cow for the Russian Government (which owns half of the company).

Last year, after three quarters, Gazprom was still in the black for the Year To Date. Under Russian accounting methods, many expenses for the year are not booked until December. This year, after three quarters, Gazprom is already showing a $3 Billion loss.

At the end of December, not only will Gazprom likely post an historic loss for the year, but they will also suffer the loss of half of their remaining sales to Europe, as Ukraine terminates their transshipment rights through the Druzhba Pipeline.

Putin has killed the goose that laid the golden eggs.

[SpeedyInTexas]

Another big jump in RuZZian tank losses

Tanks (3527, of which destroyed: 2462, damaged: 158, abandoned: 375, captured: 532)

[BeauBo]

“Poland plans to buy more than 100 more HIMARS”

Off the hook!

“more than” 100 more.

On top of 468 already contracted, 288 Korean Chunmoo equivalents, and Poland’s own homegrown.

The delivery schedule will have to stretch over years, but they have a full running start on any potential Russian post-war rearmament.

[BeauBo]

“Poland plans to buy more than 100 more US MLRS HIMARS (in addition) to the 486 previously ordered”

That is also the kind of NATO member that Ukraine is likely to be, once admitted. Armed to the teeth.

[BeauBo]

Poland and the Baltics are already building large scale defensive fortifications against Russia and Belarus - independently, jointly, and under a NATO Program - the largest such operation since 1945.

All of Kaliningrad Oblast is within HIMARS range of Poland and Lithuania. I wonder how long Kaliningrad would remain Russian, once shooting started.

Russia's Baltic Sea Fleet would also be destroyed or bottled up in short order. Not only is Poland contracted/ing for HIMARS/HIMARS Equivalent fleet as large as the USA (potentially becoming the world's largest), but they also have the largest orders placed for the top of the line US anti-ship cruise missiles (over 1,000).

Kyiv Independent reports today:

"Poland has started building defensive lines on the border with Russia as part of the "East Shield" initiative, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on Nov. 1.

Presented this May, the "East Shield" program aims to fortify Poland's borders with Belarus, and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad. It includes a mix of new physical barriers, modern surveillance systems, and infrastructure development.

The program is part of NATO’s eastern flank joint regional defense infrastructure plan that Poland is carrying out with Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia.

Warsaw allocated a total of 10 billion złoty ($2.5 billion) to strengthen the borders with Russia and Belarus to deter aggression.

"This is the largest operation to strengthen Poland’s eastern border, NATO’s eastern flank, since 1945," Polish Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz said in spring.

Kaliningrad Oblast is a small piece of land measuring 15,100 square kilometers — not much larger than the U.S. state of Connecticut — sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania. It has a short, western coastline on the Baltic Sea. Its capital is also called Kaliningrad.

Though it may be small, strategically it gives Russia a second point of direct access to the Baltic Sea, the other being through its most eastern arm in the Finnish Gulf.

Russia's Baltic Sea Fleet has its headquarters and main base in Kaliningrad Oblast."

[PIF]

Meanwhile, over at PolyMarket...

[BeauBo]

Another arms package to Ukraine announced today. The pattern repeats itself - a continued supply of ammunition, but not the promised unit sets of equipment, to make real counter attacks. A $400 million ammunition allowance, once or twice a month.

Kyiv Independent reports:

“Washington announced on Nov. 1 a new military aid package for Kyiv worth $425 million, according to a U.S. Defense Department press release.

The day prior, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said during a joint press conference that the U.S. would “soon” provide Ukraine with another aid package in light of North Korean troops’ involvement in Russia’s war.

The recent military assistance is provided under the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) which pulls weapons from U.S. stocks.

The aid list includes munitions for NASAMS missile systems, Stinger missiles, ammunition for HIMARS rocket systems, tube-launched, optically tracked, and wire-guided (TOW) missiles, Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems, as well as 155mm and 105mm artillery ammunition.

Washington will also provide Kyiv with air-to-ground munitions, Stryker armored personnel carriers, counter-unmanned aerial systems (c-UAS) equipment and munitions, some medical equipment, and spare parts, among other contents of the package.

The U.S. recently allocated another military assistance package for Ukraine worth $400 million, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced during his visit to Kyiv on Oct. 21.

Austin had arrived in Kyiv unexpectedly to discuss further support as the U.S. presidential election draws near...

...Despite (the slow drip of) U.S. assistance, Russian forces continue grinding forward in eastern Ukraine, while the country braces for renewed strikes against its energy grid as winter approaches.

President Volodymyr Zelensky on Oct. 30 said the U.S. has transferred to Ukraine nearly (not even) 10% of the $61 billion aid approved by Congress in April 2024.”

[ETCM]

Really nailed that one down, not.

With only 42 seats really "in play" and only 10 considered a "toss up", they are giving themselves a 15 seat range. Really going out on a limb there!

[BeauBo]

Saudi Arabia is to OPEC, what the USA is to NATO - the 800lb gorilla, that everyone else seeks to get a free ride on the back of.

If the Saudis get tired of losing market share to float other members profits, (as they have done before), they could potentially pull the rug out from under oil prices next year, which might collapse Russia’s finances.

If significant Russian production got knocked offline in a price war, the Saudis might then reap both increased market share and higher prices, over a longer term. The previous Saudi effort to price US shale oil out of the market failed. But Russia may now be in a more precarious position. Somebody hand MBS a knife...

OilPrice.com reports today:

OPEC Lifts October Production Ahead of Planned Production Hikes

“OPEC’s production increased by 370,000 barrels per day in October, a new Bloomberg survey has found.

OPEC’s October production increase—thanks to Libya’s political resolution and its resultant 500,000 barrel-per-day output boost—adds another layer of complexity to the group’s ongoing struggle to manage global oil markets. Libya’s output recovery led OPEC to raise its production to nearly 30 million barrels daily, even as Iraq, Iran, and Saudi Arabia lowered their output.

The backdrop of the group’s production boost is a murky market landscape: Brent crude oil prices have dropped nearly 19% since early April, falling to below $74 per barrel, driven by demand fears in China and production from OPEC that exceeds its quota.

At $74 per barrel, many OPEC+ nations may find it difficult—or impossible—to cover government spending, even for key players like Saudi Arabia, which has been strategically cutting production to support prices and pushing other members to stick with the plan.

OPEC+ now faces a critical choice. The group is scheduled to begin monthly output increases in December, but given the current market fragility that several anonymous delegates spoke to Bloomberg about, there’s little faith that they will follow through with this plan. The group has always maintained that its planning production cuts rollback would depend on market conditions. The question now is, are the current market conditions sufficient for OPEC to increase production even more?

Many delegates suggest that proceeding with scheduled hikes could intensify market oversupply issues, keeping prices uncomfortably low for many members.

OPEC+ ministers will meet on December 1 to lay out the plan for next year, but in the meantime, they face a near-impossible balancing act. A resolution to Libya’s crisis is a short-term boon, but without clear and consistent quota compliance from members like Iraq, the group risks intensifying a market imbalance. It’s becoming clear that OPEC+ may need to implement stricter compliance measures or risk losing control over the very markets it has worked to stabilize.”

[ETCM]

Warsaw allocated a total of 10 billion złoty ($2.5 billion) to strengthen the borders with Russia and Belarus to deter aggression.

"Peace through strength". Very Reaganesque. I can't see Lukashenko being any more willing to invade Poland than he has been willing to invade Ukraine. Russia has no capacity to fight NATO at this point, and won't until a few years after the end of their war with Ukraine. And that's only if they can afford to re-arm. Meanwhile, Poland is on its way to becoming the most powerful army in Europe.

[PIF]

Saudi Arabia is ... the 800lb gorilla

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Meanwhile, the real 800 lb gorilla continues to destroy its fossil fuel industry.

[BeauBo]

Lukashenko has to engineer another “re-election” farce this January.

AP:

“The national elections commission in Belarus on Tuesday (October 29) registered an initiative group for authoritarian President Alexander Lukashenko to seek a seventh term in office, but rejected the attempts of two opposition politicians to get on the ballot.

The election, scheduled for Jan. 26, would come 4 1/2 years after the 2020 vote that sparked massive nationwide protests and led to a harsh crackdown on opposition that continues.

Major opposition figures were either imprisoned or fled the country in the crackdown, in which some 65,000 people were arrested. Human rights activists say Belarus now holds about 1,300 political prisoners and that many of them are denied adequate medical care and contact with their families...

...“These are not elections, but an electoral farce, and the actions of the Central Election Commission only prove that not a single real opponent of Lukashenko will be allowed to participate in the elections,” (Opposition leader) Hubarevich told The Associated Press.

[SpeedyInTexas]

Last day of early voting in Texas today.

Off to vote. Hoping no long lines...

Update when I get back.

[PIF]

If Kamala wins, the US election process look like Belarus’ system.

[BeauBo]

Babylon Bee reports: New 'Kamalexa' Edition Of Amazon Echo Will Just Ramble For 10 Minutes Without Ever Answering Your Questions

...expected to be the best selling ever, after the mail in orders are counted.

[SpeedyInTexas]

Voted. Took about an hour to get through the line.

Voted Trump. Hope I don’t regret it.

Voted McCaul. One of the best in Congress.

Voted Brown (L) for Senate. Won’t vote for Cruz because he doesn’t support Ukraine. Allred is a joke. Brown by default.

[blitz128]

And Trump could win by at least 5 or lose by no more than 5. Book me on PMSDNC😎