Posted on 02/24/2024 5:59:01 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
THERMITED Tank
“Video of an abandoned Russian tank destroyed with an FPV with thermite by Ukraine’s 30th Mechanized Brigade.”
https://x.com/RALee85/status/1841554769237753981
“Russians Do Break: Historical and Cultural Context for a Prospective Ukrainian Victory”
“For major wars like the one being fought between Russia and Ukraine, the military, the people, and the state interact with one another to constitute a collective national will to fight. In most wars, one side loses its will to fight and is forced into an unfavorable negotiating position; it accepts a defeat short of annihilation.
Russia can be broken in Ukraine and thereby forced to accept this kind of negotiated defeat. I argue here that the approach Ukraine and its Western allies are taking — the combined attrition of Russia’s military and the compression of its economy — has a good chance of succeeding if it can be sustained.
To understand how Russia can be brought to its knees, policymakers and the public first need to understand the historical and cultural influences that strengthen Russian will to fight. These admittedly discouraging factors go a long way toward explaining why Russia has not yet quit more than two years into this extraordinarily costly war.
But all people have limits. Despite benefitting from the longstanding historical and cultural strengths I describe in this article, Russia quit in Afghanistan in the 1980s, and it quit in Chechnya in the 1990s. History informs forecasting. In the case of the Ukraine War, a realignment of historical factors suggests there are good prospects for Ukrainian and Western victory.”
Someone with a hopium addiction is getting high on his own supply.
The front keeps moving west ever more rapidly. Russia’s army fully occupied the critical Ukrainian town of Vuhledar today, after more than two years pressing to capture the Donetsk region stronghold.
Speedy, Oryx has been exposed as being wildly inaccurate, and its founders had shut it down. Why are you trying to bring it back?
Two years to “capture” are you listening to yourself
The Wehrmacht would have loved this “rapid” movement
Saddam would have loved this “rapid”movement
The south would have loved this “rapid” movement
Then there is Kursk which was rapid movement
you neglect to mention that Russia is fighting the Ukraine plus NATO and America. Why haven’t the despicable globohomos won yet?
Given the 2+ years it has taken Russia to claim Vuhledar, how much of Ukraine might they be able to claim by 2200?
“The Central Bank of Russia has signaled for the second time in two days that it might raise the key rate at its next meeting.”
The expectation is for another full point increase, to 20% - but their situation is volatile.
More than one point would be expected to spook markets - but clearly, investors have already been spooked by the last several rounds of hikes, and the high geopolitical risk of investing in Russian securities.
“Russia’s army fully occupied the... town of Vuhledar today, after more than two years”
That is what you are calling “rapidly”...
It is a tiny fraction of the speed at which Russia lost territory in Kursk Oblast.
“On the home front, Russian civilians hit breaking points during both the Soviet and post-Soviet eras. As the Soviet war in Afghanistan ground on beyond its second year, it appeared that a combination of casualties (perhaps only one-tenth of those suffered thus far in Ukraine), increasing economic decline, and a general loss of belief in the war’s purpose took their toll. Recruiting and conscription numbers fell, and eventually Soviet leaders came to view the war as a “bleeding wound.” They withdrew in defeat. Catastrophe in Chechnya in 1994 also was fed by, and in turn led to, wavering Russian will to fight. These were entirely rational reactions to bad policies, bad treatment of soldiers, and bad economic conditions.
Putin has a breaking point, or at least a point at which he will settle on terms he finds unfavorable. While he presently retains dominant control over the state and enjoys at least an imposed version of popular support, Putin is aging and may be weakening. His surprisingly passive and initially incoherent response to Yevgeny Prigozhin’s revolt in 2023 caused a reexamination of his carefully constructed aura of invulnerability. Putin’s equally lethargic response to Ukraine’s 2024 Kursk incursion and his increasingly fantastical claims about Russia’s economy reinforce perceptions that he may be hurting.”
“Russian leaders appear to be aware of this worrisome problem in Ukraine. Generals are doing their best to hide casualties and keep wounded and distraught soldiers from returning home where, like the Afghansky of the 1980s, they might undermine popular support. They are desperately trying to use mercenaries, convicts, foreign troops, and unempowered mobilized troops to soak up casualties in order to keep their contract army intact. But Russia may be running out of cannon fodder. Military personnel costs are skyrocketing. Meanwhile, Putin is doing his best to maintain a veneer of economic normality. But his economy is almost certainly suffering under Western sanctions and market isolation.
Therefore, despite all the historico-cultural factors mitigating toward Russian endurance in this war, practical realities seem likely to intrude. Russia’s efforts to caulk over its vulnerabilities may be successful in the short run, perhaps through the beginning of 2025. But there is good reason to expect that the combined Ukrainian and Western strategy focused on pressuring Russia through battlefield losses and economic compression will succeed.”
“sources reported that at least 10 air defense systems were transferred to Iran just two weeks ago (from Russia). Including the latest S-400”
Maybe that explains the delay in the Israeli retaliatory air strikes - they found out that the Iranians and Russians had prepared a SAMbush for their aircraft, with newly installed Air Defenses.
They may be taking precautions to probe and map them all out first, to update their plan.
Alternatively, perhaps political pressure was applied to delay or preclude Israel’s expected counterstrike against Iran.
“Russians Do Break”
They mention Afghanistan and Chechnya, but WW1 was also a doozy for Russians breaking.
We have been counting it down on this thread, as Putin has wasted the old Soviet arsenals and Russia’s treasure of financial reserves. Those are both on track for hard breaks in 2025.
Senior Russian officials continue to set conditions to justify possible future aggression against the Baltic states. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko gave an interview to Russian state-sponsored media outlet Baltnews that was published on September 30 that portrays Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia as enemies of Russia that have chosen “confrontation” over peace and are supporters of Nazis and neo-Nazism.[67] Grushko claimed that the Baltic states gave up their sovereignty to bolster NATO even though NATO would use these states as the main defensive barrier in a future confrontation with Russia. Kremlin officials have previously used similar accusations of supporting Nazism to justify the invasion of Ukraine, and Grushko’s narrative is also likely aimed at scaring Baltic states from supporting policies that are contrary to Russia's interests in Europe.[68]
Russia continues efforts to codify state ideological values and is using these values to distinguish itself from Western countries. Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) Consular Department Head Alexei Klimov stated that Russia may expand a list of countries whose citizens can move to Russia under simplified procedures for those individuals who reject “destructive neoliberal values” in their home countries.[69] Russian President Vladimir Putin instructed the Russian MFA on August 19 to create this list, which Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin approved on September 20, and the list includes 47 states that the Kremlin claims have “destructive” attitudes that clash with Russian “spiritual and moral” values.[70] The original list notably includes countries that have largely supported Ukraine since the start of the full-scale invasion, and Klimov did not offer an explanation as to which additional countries would be added to the list.[71]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-2-2024
The Ruble death watch resumes.
Russian ruble down about 7% against the dollar over the last 30 days.
https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=RUB&view=1M
The ruble peaked at 84 cents on 19 June, but hit 96 on October 1st (since secondary sanctions hit). It is not just the dollar, the ruble is weakening against the Chinese Yuan and Indian Rupee as well..
Seems that the Central bank may be constrained in available foreign currency to continue propping up the ruble.
Financial ammo running low?
Correction: The Russian ruble peaked at 84 KOPECKS (Not cents) to the US dollar on June 19th, but weakened to 96 on October 1st.
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