Posted on 02/24/2024 5:59:01 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
Sanctions are working dramatically effectively on Russia’s once great Natural Gas industry - even China is taking part. Now the Europeans are also starting their first sanctions on Russian LNG projects. No exports (none) are happening from the Arctic LNG 2 project, which was supposed to start last year, and no activity on financing a planned new Power of Siberia 2 natural gas pipeline is occurring.
Putin did that.
OilPrice.com reports:
“The Arctic LNG 2 project in Russia, which Western sanctions have hit in recent months, significantly reduced its production of natural gas in May (55 mcm, from 215 the month before) as it hasn’t exported any LNG yet, a source with knowledge of output data told Reuters on Tuesday...
...Located in the Gydan Peninsula in the Arctic, the Arctic LNG 2 project was considered key to Russia’s efforts to boost its global LNG market share from 8% to 20% by 2030-2035.
But Arctic LNG 2 has been basically on ice since the U.S. imposed in November 2023 fresh sanctions on the Russian project...
...Arctic LNG 2 started operations such as natural gas extraction in December, but it hasn’t been able to ship any LNG cargo abroad yet...
...Potential contract cancellations for the construction of ice-class LNG carriers and the sanctions on Arctic LNG 2 could hamper Russia’s plans to boost LNG sales now that its pipeline route to Europe is largely cut off. (Pipeline gas to Europe accounted for 85% of Russia’s natural gas exports in 2021, before Putin scuttled the industry with his invasion)
Furthermore, Chinese engineering company Wison New Energies discontinued all ongoing Russian projects and will immediately and indefinitely stop taking any new Russian business, dealing a blow to Arctic LNG 2, for which Wison was to supply equipment for a gas turbine power station at the plant.
The EU added insult to injury as it banned last month (June 2024) new investments, as well as the provision of goods, technology, and services for the completion of Russian LNG projects under construction, such as Arctic LNG 2 and Murmansk LNG, in the first EU sanctions targeting Russia’s gas sector.”
Russia’s recent 4% uptick in Crude oil exports only lasted a couple of weeks, and they have since fallen back lower (and faster) than their pre-blip downtrend.
Putin.
OilPrice.com reports: Russia’s Crude Oil Exports Slip To Lowest Level Since January
“Russian seaborne crude oil exports dropped... to around 3.11 million barrels per day (bpd) in the four weeks to July 14, down by around 180,000 bpd from the four-week average from the week prior, according to the data reported by Bloomberg’s Julian Lee.
The latest four-week average crude shipments were the lowest observed seaborne exports out of Russia since January this year.
In the past weeks, the four-week average export volumes have continuously dropped, Bloomberg’s tanker-tracking data showed...
...The likely explanation could be Russia improving compliance with the OPEC+ cuts and raising domestic refining rates, according to Bloomberg’s Lee.
Over the past two weeks, most of the decline in Russian crude shipments came from the Western ports on the Baltic Sea and the Black Sea. Exports from the Primorsk and Ust-Luga ports on the Baltic have slumped by 30% compared to a recent high in April, while exports from the port of Novorossiysk on the Black Sea have almost halved from their recent high.
After a drop in shipments between the April high and early June, Russia’s seaborne crude exports started rising again in June, and the volumes recovered about one-third of their recent decline.
This came even as Russia’s Energy Ministry pledged earlier in June that Russia would reach its oil production quota in June after exceeding its target output under the OPEC+ deal in May.”
Failed sanctions are why Europe is in recession 🤣☮️✌️
“Failed sanctions are why Europe is in recession”
Europe is not in recession.
Check the year on the stories that you are looking at (if you are not just inventing your stats to fit your agenda).
Like most of the world; including the USA, China and Russia; the Eurozone printed extra money during COVID, and was fighting the resulting inflation afterward with higher interest rates that slowed the economy.
The European Central Bank has already ended its rate hikes and has begun the first rate cuts (25 basis points, near a long term norm in the 3-4% range). The Eurozone GDP has been growing since the first quarter of this year, and employment is also improving. The USA maintained positive GDP growth throughout, and is expected to start reducing rates (from the 5.5% it has remained at for the last year) in September, now that US core inflation has dropped to 3% (nearing the target of 2%).
Unlike most of the rest of the world, Russia has remained on a tear printing new rubles, even after the COVID epidemic subsided, and in the face of rising inflation. Russia expanded their money supply another whopping 25% in 2022, and nearly another 20% in 2023. They are still at it. (The US money supply by comparison, contracted 3% since Putin’s 2022 invasion). Further serious inflation from that wartime Russian monetary expansion will take a couple of years to subside, if they stopped printing now (which they can’t, because of Putin’s war).
Russian domestic interest rates are now at a dysfunctional 16%, but the Russian Central Bank is currently publicly discussing raising the rate (possibly to 18% or 20%) at their next meeting (26 July, https://www.barrons.com/news/russia-s-central-bank-chief-signals-interest-rate-hike-d286e17a). New, higher tax rates are already scheduled for next year. Last week, the Russian Duma scrapped the flat tax system for a “progressive” indexed rate (with a bigger total take for the Government), to take effect next year. They also raised corporate income taxes 25% across the board, from 20% to 25% of profits, in addition to other additional targeted taxes.
The Russian population is being squeezed in several directions; by galloping inflation, a weakening currency, higher taxes and reduced subsidies (such as retail fuel costs).
Cutting off Russian oil and Natural Gas supplies caused a short time spike in energy costs in Europe, that is now over. New import infrastructure has been built and is operational, and long term contracts with new suppliers have been signed.
They are currently enjoying Russia’s former market share, and will be for the duration of their new 10-20 year contracts. Russia’s Natural Gas Infrastructure in the Arctic will likely degrade dramatically during Winter freezes when not in use, as they did after the collapse of the Soviet Union (which took a decade to rebuild, with Western companies providing financing and technology).
That is it for Russia’s impact on Europe’s economy. Russia stole the plant and equipment that Europeans (Americans and Japanese) invested there, and the corporations have already overwhelmingly written them off and filed their taxes with the deductions.
Russia did it’s worst, and the economic divorce is over - effectively, last year was the end of Russia as a factor in Europe’s economy.
Now Russia is dependent on China. All its eggs are in one basket. Putin did not like a rules based International order, with rule of law. Russians will probably like less the situation he has led them into - dependency on overlords who are notoriously rapacious and corrupt, unbound by morality or law. Other nations have had bad experiences with China’s Belt and Road Initiative, but outside of North Korea, few have exposed their throat to the degree of dependency that Putin has created.
Baltic states to complete decoupling from Russian-controlled power grid by early 2025
Kyiv Independent reports:
“The Baltic States’ power system operators informed Russia and Belarus that they would disconnect from the Moscow-controlled post-Soviet power grid starting in February 2025, media outlet LRT reported on July 16.
Lithuanian operator Litgrid, Latvian AST, and Estonian Elering informed the Russian and Belarusian operators that they would not extend the BRELL agreement, which expires in February 2025...
...The Baltic States’ operators plan to join the Continental Europe Synchronous Area with synchronization on Feb. 9, 2025...
...All three Baltic electricity systems are already prepared for “emergency synchronization at any moment” according to Litgrid. (Because they know how Putin is with energy blackmail)...
...The Baltic nations initially aimed to join the European system by the end of 2025. However, following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, they advanced the timeline by nearly a year.”
‼️ David Sacks: ⚡️⚡️⚡️🔥🔥🔥
The Ukraine - Russian War Was Provoked! pic.twitter.com/X5AAvurcYo— Ignorance, the root and stem of all evil (@ivan_8848) July 17, 2024
Reporting From Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU/videos
Reporting From Ukraine Uncensored Combat Footage (from this and past Reports) is found on Telegram:
https://t.me/RFUEnglish or @RFUEnglish
[ You need to have the Telegram app to view. ]
The complete transcript.
—
[ Elite Ukrainian Armor Units Roll Over Russian Positions! ]
—
Today [ July 16 ], there are a lot of developments in the direction of Toretsk.
Here, Ukrainians have moved the 95th Air Assault Brigade to the region to stabilize the situation and deplete Russian forces by conducting rapid counterattacks.
The main Russian goal is to straighten out the frontline and open up a second axis of advance toward Kostyantynivka, supporting their stagnating assault on Chasiv Yar. To advance toward Kostyantynivka, Russians must first take control of the Ukrainian town of Pokrovsk, and they have recently started advancing on the fortified city from two sides.
However, as Russians have not moved large reserves to the region yet, the two Russian breakthroughs at Pivnichne and Niu-York are unlikely to be planned offensive operations, but rather opportunistic strikes after a failed Ukrainian brigade rotation.
The lack of committed reserves by Russian forces puts a harsh deadline on Russian soldiers on the frontline. They have a limited amount of time to accomplish their goals before they run out of manpower, equipment, and, as such, their combat capabilities.
Currently, Russians are trying to overwhelm Ukrainian defenses and cause an outright Ukrainian collapse by launching infantry assaults all over the equally fortified settlement of Pivnichne.
Russians also launched a large bombing campaign on the town, using glide bombs, thermobaric, and conventional artillery to target Ukrainian positions on the outskirts of the settlement and the high-rise district.
The situation on the outskirts is highly volatile; Russian and Ukrainian geolocated footage shows both parties are active in the same area, where Russians are sometimes able to reach the outskirts, but get quickly eliminated here as well.
To help stabilize the situation, the Ukrainian 95th Air Assault Brigade, which the Ukrainian command often utilizes to stabilize critical situations, was called in as a rapid response force to counterattack and push Russian assault groups back out of the settlement.
The first objective of the 95th Brigade was to push Russians out of the northern outskirts of Pivnichne, as the south was guarded by the high-rise district, making Russian attacks in the north the more pressing issue.
The brigade released a multitude of geolocated footage detailing their combat operations, as a Ukrainian drone filmed Russian assault groups entering houses on the outskirts. Ukrainians immediately fired on the building with artillery, halting the Russian attack. Their drone operators continued to heavily monitor the area, targeting any Russian movement or position with artillery, FPV drones, and drone-dropped grenades.
With Russian presence in the outskirts reduced to almost nothing, the next step was to eliminate their foothold in the so-called ‘arm’ of Pivnichne. To rapidly accomplish this, Ukrainians launched a counterattack with an armored personnel carrier, firing its automatic cannon along the ‘arm’ to destroy Russian positions they had established here.
Interestingly, this was not an isolated operation, but Ukrainians continued to use armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles to undermine the Russian foothold.
Ukrainians, on one occasion, even used a tank to fire high-explosive shells into more important Russian positions here to make sure they were destroyed.
Finally, they engaged a Russian tank providing fire support for Russian units, disabling it before finishing it off with a drone-dropped grenade, resulting in an ammunition cook-off. The sudden and high intensity of Ukrainian counterattacks on the outskirts has significantly weakened the Russian presence here and their foothold on the outskirts.
While Ukrainians have not yet launched counterattacks to physically force the Russians out, drone operators have mined the supply routes with Baba Yaga octocopters, as well as dropping these mines directly on Russian positions.
Ukrainians do not just target these supply routes with mines, but have them under FPV drone control as well, targeting any reinforcements with kamikaze strikes. Observation drones also mark these routes, leading Ukrainians to uncover Russian hideouts and engaging them with mortar fire.
While Ukrainian counterattacks in the north broke the Russian threat, the situation in the southern part of Pivnichne is more difficult, as Russians focused their bombing and artillery campaign on the Ukrainian high-rise district.
An observation drone filmed the extent of the destruction as Russians resorted to razing any buildings Ukrainians used as a defensive position. Through sheer destruction, Russians were able to take control of the southern suburbs and parts of the forest to open up more angles of attack on the Ukrainian high-rise fortifications.
Despite the intense Russian bombing, Ukrainians continued posting videos of fierce urban combat from the apartment buildings. The footage shows Ukrainians engaging Russian soldiers with small arms fire, rifle-mounted and handheld grenade launchers.
Ukrainian fighters also shared footage and images of Russian casualties as they attempted to move closer or into the Ukrainian positions. Geolocated footage also shows that at least one Russian assault group made it to the apartment buildings.
Unfortunately for Russians, Ukrainians immediately opened fire on the Russian soldiers with artillery, taking many of them out of commission. Ukrainians then sent a tank to finish the job with high-explosive ammunition, destroying what was left of the Russian assault group.
Overall, Russians are suffering from a lack of reinforcements in Pivnichne and will soon be unable to sustain their offensive operations. The Ukrainian 95th Air Assault Brigade has been moved to the area and is conducting swift counterattacks in the northern outskirts. This significantly weakens the Russian grip on their foothold, and has majorly disrupted their logistics.
All the while, Russians focused their bombing campaign on the south, slightly advancing and opening up more angles of attack on the high-rise district.
If the Ukrainian 95th is able to wrap up its operations in the north quickly, they will be able to transfer their attention to the south and achieve the same results here.
Interesting Articles:
Russia’s Giant 6,000lb Glide Bomb Seen Launched From Su-34 For First Time
The FAB-3000 bomb is mated to a UMPK tail kit turning it into a standoff guided weapon capable of considerable destruction.
https://www.twz.com/air/russias-giant-6000lb-glide-bomb-seen-launched-from-su-34-for-the-first-time
—
Ex-FBI Agent’s Analysis Of Secret Service’s Actions Surrounding Trump Assassination Attempt
The highly-experienced retired FBI agent was baffled by the nearby unattended rooftops in clear line-of-sight of the former president.
https://www.twz.com/news-features/ex-fbi-agents-analysis-of-secret-services-actions-surrounding-trump-assassination-attempt
—
Experienced Snipers Break Down The Trump Assassination Attempt
Two veteran snipers and a retired Secret Service agent give us their takes on how these security operations are conducted and what may have gone so wrong.
https://www.twz.com/news-features/experienced-snipers-break-down-the-trump-assassination-attempt
—
Navy’s F/A-XX Next Generation Fighter Program Would Be Gutted Under Senate Defense Bill
Questions about the future of both F/A-XX and the U.S. Air Force’s Next Generation Air Dominance combat jet program are growing.
https://www.twz.com/air/navys-f-a-xx-next-generation-fighter-program-would-be-gutted-under-senate-defense-bill
Kremlin snuff box, 07/16/24
Crimea, Sevastopol and five other regions face serious blackouts
Power outages already occurring [ https://t.me/rian_ru/253527 ] in some regions could become more severe. The most difficult problems may be in Crimea, Sevastopol, Rostov, Kursk, Bryansk, Belgorod regions and Krasnodar Territory.
“There are several reasons. Weather, enemy attacks, worn-out equipment,” a source in the Ministry of Energy told us about this.
According to him, “there will not be a complete blackout, but blackouts may become more frequent. Although we hope to avoid bad scenarios.”
The situation is aggravated by the fact that the Ukrainian Nazis are hitting a number of enterprises that produce electrical equipment. In this regard, the source recalled the recent enemy attack [ video: https://t.me/shot_shot/68972 ] on a plant in the Kursk region. And he noted that “this case, due to which we are having technical problems, unfortunately, is not the only one.”
At the same time, a source close to Sergei Sobyanin once again assured us [ https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/4314 ] that Moscow does not face serious problems with electricity, despite the enemy’s plans and possible problems with equipment.
Interesting how the usuals love to project
West isn’t worried about casualties
West was going to invade Russia
West is anti free speech
West are terrorist attacking civilians
West is ruined by sanctions
As I understand it hitler wanted peace on his terms as well
Nuclear Reactor Malfunction Leaves Millions of Russians Without Power
Published Jul 17, 2024 [ Rostov nuclear power plant ]
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-nuclear-plant-rostov-electricity-power-outage-1926259
“NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg announced on July 17 the appointment of Patrick Turner to lead the mission of the NATO Representation in Ukraine (NRU)...
...Turner previously held other roles in the alliance, including assistant secretary general for operations and assistant secretary general for defense policy and planning.”
With that kind of experience, he really knows how NATO works, and has many high level contacts.
Ukraine is shutting off transshipment of Russian oil and gas products through their huge pipeline network. The end of this year is scheduled to be a big shutoff of Russian pipeline natural gas to Austria and Hungary. But some more oil flow was just shut off in recent weeks.
In the event of peace and security, Ukraine could refill those pipelines with Ukrainian oil and gas - especially natural gas, as they sit on about 2 Trillion cubic meters of proven reserve - approaching the size or Norway’s. That energy supply to Europe should be preserved Strategically, in any peace agreement - and that means retaking Crimea.
OilPrice.com reports:
Russian Oil Supply to Hungary Halted Due to Ukraine Sanctions on Lukoil (By Charles Kennedy - Jul 17, 2024)
“Despite the fact that EU pipeline crude imports from Russia are not banned by the embargo, Russia is not delivering crude oil to Hungary at present after Ukraine imposed stricter sanctions on Russian oil giant Lukoil, effectively banning it from using Ukraine as a transit for oil exports.
Lukoil was supplying Hungary with crude via the southern leg of the Druzhba oil pipeline which crosses Ukraine. With the toughened sanctions Kyiv imposed on Lukoil in June, Russian oil does not reach Hungary now.”
IMHO, this is the "real" reason that putin invaded Ukraine.
I believe a lot of the natural gas is located in eastern Ukraine.
OilPrice.com reports:
“Donald Trump has pledged to ramp up U.S. domestic oil production and undo some regulations to make that happen, the Republican presidential candidate told Bloomberg Businessweek in an exclusive interview published on Wednesday.
The interview with the former U.S. president took place at Mar-a-Lago in late June, two days before the first presidential debate and two weeks prior to the assassination attempt on Trump this weekend...
...“We have more liquid gold than anybody,” Trump told Bloomberg Businessweek. “We need energy at low prices. The advantage we have all over almost every country including the very large ones is that we have more energy than anybody. We have more of the real energy, the energy that works”...
...If he wins in November, Trump is set to overturn or at least try to dismantle many of President Biden’s energy and climate policies, including methane rules, the pause on new LNG export permits, EV mandates, federal oil and gas leasing, and even parts of the Inflation Reduction Act.”
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