https://x.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1804158498361475348
Our friend Chuck Pfarrer is back. I don't know what his issue was but I am glad he is back.
Posted on 02/24/2024 5:59:01 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here. Loitering munitions, drones used as unmanned bait, civilian vehicles and derelict equipment are not included in this list. All possible effort has gone into avoiding duplicate entries and discerning the status of equipment between captured or abandoned. Many of the entries listed as 'abandoned' will likely end up captured or destroyed. Similarly, some of the captured equipment might be destroyed if it can't be recovered. When a vehicle is captured and then lost in service with its new owners, it is only added as a loss of the original operator to avoid double listings. When the origin of a piece of equipment can't be established, it's not included in the list. The Soviet flag is used when the equipment in question was produced prior to 1991. This list is constantly updated as additional footage becomes available.
(Excerpt) Read more at oryxspioenkop.com ...
https://x.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1804158498361475348
Our friend Chuck Pfarrer is back. I don't know what his issue was but I am glad he is back.
https://x.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1804157263990399142
“successful strikes on four Russian oil refineries—Afip, Ilya, Krasnodar, and Astrakhan”
So much for my hypothesis that Ukraine may have been shifting fire from refineries to Operational storage.
Bombs away.
I’m most interested in the oil storage that has been on fire for several days. Apparently, the valves are stuck. I’m willing to bet that one of the drones hit the valves.
Nice to see you back Speedy.
“3000+ tanks and now 3000+ BMPs.”
We have assessed previously that this is likely an undercount, due to their methodology.
The Ukrainian MoD count is about 8,000 tanks, and we have previously assessed that to likely be an overcount.
Also, we have previously discussed 6,000 lost Russian tanks, as a ballpark figure for when the supply of refurbished tanks from inventory would become significantly constrained.
OSINT analysis of satellite imagery of Russian storage yards, generally assesses another year or two at these rates, for expending their ground combat platform inventories generally.
Things will likely degrade for them generally, thinning out and dropping in quality (which we have already been observing for a long while) - but their negotiating position for peace terms is going to degrade, as their combat, logistical and financial ability to continue degrades.
One more year (FY 25) of full Military funding, and Western production will be surging, as Russian reserves are petering out.
That is my guess.
“I’m most interested in the oil storage that has been on fire for several days.”
Valves for the storage depots, Cracking towers for the refineries.
We are doing our own refining - of our target sets.
“Among potential weapons under consideration are 155-mm artillery shells, as well as air defense systems, which are needed in Ukraine, according to government sources.”
https://m-en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20240621006000315
Seems ROK and I are on the same page here as far as what to provide, but it sounds like it might be merely a diplomatic move to dissuade Russia from giving DPRK advanced weapons. IMHO, this is a mistake, as Russia cannot be trusted. Defeating ROK is just part of Putin and Xi’s grand plan for their “multipolar world”. AKA the communist version of globalism.
“In addition to the Patriot air defense system, all AMRAAM missiles (for the NASAMS air defense system) will be delivered to Ukraine as a priority”
A new phase in the Air War is approaching with the improved Ukrainian Air Defenses, and the advent of the F-16s. Now the Administration has authorized striking Russian planes in the air over Russia as well.
“Pentagon spokesperson Air Force Major General Patrick Ryder told reporters (20 June) that while there had been no change in policy, Ukraine’s use of weapons against Russian troops was not limited to near Kharkiv on the Russian side...
...“It’s self-defense and so it makes sense for them to be able to do that,” he added.
Ryder’s remarks echo comments made by Biden’s national security adviser earlier this week.
“This is not about geography. It’s about common sense,” White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan told PBS. “If Russia is attacking or about to attack from its territory into Ukraine, it only makes sense to allow Ukraine to hit back against the forces that are hitting it from across the border.”
Sullivan added that Ukraine could also use air-defense systems to fire at Russian planes flying in Russian airspace, if they are about to fire into Ukrainian airspace.”
This was back in February. It's now at $3.22T, above the GDP of France. And it's the 3rd most valuable company in the US. The top 5 US companies are all worth more than Russia's GDP. But the market feels like a huge bubble right now...
“Putin and Xi’s grand plan for their “multipolar world”. AKA the communist version of globalism.”
It has long been communist doctrine to take over the world, even having been enshrined into the old Soviet constitution that called for one Worldwide communist State (under the guiding light of Soviet communism). The Communist International was established and operated for decades with that purpose, with their farm teams in many Western countries.
They always paid attention to the Global correlation of forces between the communist dictatorships and the Democracies.
A lot of South Koreans are aware of this as well, living on the front line against old school communism, devoid of any mask (like the kinds that Russia and China employed for a few decades).
If South Korea actively joins the war effort, and abandons the strategy of hoping that the alligator eats them last, they will bring a lot to the fight. Even if they just go the Japanese route, of significantly speeding up their own Defense spending, it would be a significant potential addition to the Democracies correlation of forces.
My guess is that South Korean Defense production is going to get some amount of plus up as a result of the Russian treaty with North Korea, regardless of whether they directly provide arms to Ukraine or not - and that some of that will find its way to Ukraine, as it already is.
Kind of like Putin being NATO recruiter of the year for 2022 (Finland) and 2023 (Sweden), he is now kicking Asian countries into higher gear as well.
(NVIDIA) “now at $3.22T, above the GDP of France... the market feels like a huge bubble right now...”
NVIDIA Price/Earnings over 76 now, but down from its peak of 144 last April 30th (2023).
Big Tech running 30-40. Long term stock market average is 16.
As of today 3:05 CST
MSFT Market Cap = 3,342,902,500,025
AAPL Market Cap = 3,181,668,674,180
AMZN Market Cap = 1,967,685,111,628
NVDA Market Cap = 3,113,412,143,143
I saw that range report on FOX BIZ - they can only use ATACMS on a handful of miles across the border, but no targets like all the airfields within the ATACMS full range; such a move would provoke the Russian invaders to do “something”.
WH thinks its better to leave UKR with one hand tied up and the other half crippled so as to prolong the war
Its not suppose to be a bubble, but a spike - when the tech stocks go straight up, then they will go straight down - may not happen until 2026 - all things being the same
Welcome Back! Watch out for sensitive toeszys!
Reporting From Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU/videos
Reporting From Ukraine Uncensored Combat Footage (from this and past Reports) is found on Telegram:
https://t.me/RFUEnglish or @RFUEnglish
[ You need to have the Telegram app to view. ]
The complete transcript.
—
[ Ukrainians Ambush a Huge Group of Russians hiding in The Pipes ]
—
Day 848: Jun 20
Today, there are a lot of updates from the Bakhmut direction.
The most interesting news comes from the southern flank of Chasiv Yar. Here, the Russians launched a series of attacks to use the canal crossing to enter the Novy Dstrict. However, Ukrainians not only repelled these assaults but also launched a series of counterattacks, successfully pushing Russians off the Kanal Crossing altogether.
As mentioned in my previous reports, Russian forces reached the Kanal Crossing south of the town to launch an attack on the Novy District. However, their assault units were quickly surrounded and eliminated, leading the Russian commanders to abandon this plan.
However, recent limited Russian gains in the Kanal District prompted Russian commanders to attempt another attack on the Novy District. By capturing high-rise buildings in the eastern part of the Kanal District, the Russians reduced Ukrainian fire control over the region.
With Ukrainian fire suppressed, Russian vehicles could deploy more troops to the southern flank via roads instead of relying on foot deployment through the forest.
This allowed Russian forces to move into the area more quickly and in greater numbers, and also facilitated more efficient resupply of their forces through newly established ground lines of communication.
Russian command intensified assaults on the Novy District, aiming to cut off Ukrainian positions in the high-rise buildings in the western part of the Kanal Dstrict.
Advancing in the Novy District became an appealing option for Russian forces because the area is comprised entirely of residential houses, which are easier to destroy and capture compared to the reinforced high-rise buildings in Kanal.
The Russians cannot use glide bombs to suppress Ukrainian positions in Kanal because their own troops are holding positions there as well. This need to avoid friendly fire prevented the Russians from launching further frontal assaults in Kanal, leading them to focus their efforts on the Novy District instead.
To advance on Novy, Russian forces would first need to establish a bridgehead on the western side of the canal and secure positions in the nearby forests. If successful, assaulting Novy would allow the Russians to target the roads connecting the western and eastern parts of the town, which are separated by the canal.
This would disrupt Ukrainian supply lines to the Kanal District, potentially forcing Ukrainian fighters to withdraw from the area. Furthermore, securing positions in Novy would enable the Russians to launch attacks toward the center of Chasiv Yar.
Nazar Voloshin, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Khortitsiya Group of Forces, stated that Russian fighters made no gains on the western side of the canal. The Ukrainians have established a line of powerful fortifications along the canal, which are concealed within the forest and consist of dugouts and trenches.
For this reason, the Russians decided to exploit the local network of water pipes to covertly accumulate forces. Their plan was to launch surprise assaults from the pipes with large numbers of troops simultaneously.
The goal of this new tactic was to help establish a bridgehead on the western side of the canal, enabling direct assaults on the Novy District.
Unfortunately for the Russians, the Ukrainians maintained constant surveillance and reconnaissance over the pipes using drones. Combat footage shows the Ukrainians employing thermal cameras on drones to detect Russian troops within the pipes.
They then used drone-dropped grenades to target small gaps in the pipes, effectively eliminating the Russian soldiers with precision.
Additionally, the drones provided accurate coordinates for mortar operators to strike the pipes and create breaches, allowing drone operators to engage the Russians moving inside.
As a result of the well-coordinated and precise operations by Ukrainian forces, the pipe network became a graveyard for Russian troops leading to a halt in further assault.
The heavy Russian losses from this failed attempts created an opportunity for the Ukrainians to launch a counterattack.
Geolocated footage shows a Ukrainian armored vehicle operating on the Eastern side of the Kanal Crossing nearby a network of trenches abandoned by the Russians was subsequently taken by Ukrainian infantry who dismounted from their vehicles.
This Ukrainian Counterattack aimed to relieve pressure on the Kanal District by establishing a supply corridor via the Kanal Crossing linking up with with Ukrainian forces in the high rises.
The footage confirms that Ukrainian secured a portion of the forest to the east of the Kanal Crossing along with the crossing itself.
This success was facilitated by the significantly reduced number of Russian troops holding these positions, as many had been killed during their failed attempt to amass an attack force in the water pipes .
Overall, the Ukrainian forces successfully repelled the Russian assaults on the Novi District utilizing superior tactics and well-coordinated counterattacks.
The Russian failure to cross the canal and establish positions on the other side resulted in severe losses allowing the Ukrainians to exploit weaknesses in their defenses.
Furthermore, Ukrainian counterattacks can widen the supply corridor to the Kanal District using the Kanal Crossing to resupply the strongholds in the high rises.
This could lead to a point where Russian assaults against the strongholds lose momentum, setting the stage for further Ukrainian counterattacks to push the Russians back to their starting positions, effectively clearing them out of the Kanal District.
Interesting articles:
—
Is This Our First Look At Russia’s New Monster Glide Bomb Striking Ukraine?
Just what aircraft would launch such a large weapon remains unclear, but something so destructive with standoff range is a real concern. ( FAB-3000 M54: 6,600lb )
https://www.twz.com/air/is-this-our-first-look-at-russias-new-monster-glide-bomb-striking-ukraine
—
U.S. Diverting Missiles From Foreign Customers To Ukraine Could Have Repercussions Beyond Air Defense
The bold move to divert missiles planned to foreign buyers is great for Ukraine, but it may not be viewed as positively by some customers.
https://www.twz.com/air/u-s-diverting-missiles-from-foreign-customers-to-ukraine-could-have-repercussions-beyond-air-defense
—
Russian Navy Ka-29 Assault Helicopter Downed Amid Massive Ukrainian Drone Attack
The helicopter was shot down as Ukraine sent scores of drones to strike Crimea and Russia’s Krasnodar region on targets ranging from oil facilities to an airfield.
https://www.twz.com/air/russian-navy-ka-29-assault-helicopter-downed-amid-massive-ukrainian-drone-attack
—
What Is This Mystery Row Of Spheres In A Ukrainian Field?
Help us solve the mystery of this curious array that could be a military system or something else entirely, like an agricultural apparatus.
https://www.twz.com/land/what-is-this-mystery-row-of-spheres-in-a-ukrainian-field
—
Small, Agile Houthi Drone Boat Shown Obliterating Ship During Test
Video comes just days after the Houthis scored their first hit of the current crisis on a commercial ship with an explosive-packed uncrewed surface vessel.
https://www.twz.com/news-features/small-and-agile-houthi-drone-boat-shown-obliterating-ship-during-test
—
Huge [ 45 X 33 feet ] Manta Ray Underwater Drone Looks Like A Docked Star Wars Spaceship
We are finally getting an idea of the size of the sci-fi-looking Manta Ray drone thanks to satellite imagery.
https://www.twz.com/news-features/huge-manta-ray-underwater-drone-looks-like-a-docked-star-wars-spaceship
Kremlin snuff box, 06/20/24
We lost the Su-57 plane
Unfortunately, the Su-57 fighter, damaged by an enemy drone strike at the Akhtubinsk airfield this month, cannot be repaired. We lost the plane.
“The specialists tried to fix something. The Su-57 cannot be repaired. There are intact parts left there, they are used to repair other aircraft,” a source in the Aerospace Forces told us.
Another expressed the hope that the loss of such a valuable aircraft, as well as the losses in aviation that we suffered as a result of attacks on other airfields, “will finally force everyone who is responsible for this to restore order with air defense.” He did not go into details so as not to give information to the enemy.
By the way, the second Su-57, damaged by drones in Akhtubinsk, will be repaired. Sources do not yet know when, but they hope that the repairs will not be delayed.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
