Waiting for Russian channels to start reporting on 200's and 300's.
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1764731596664352794
Posted on 02/24/2024 5:59:01 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-3-2024
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 3, 2024
Recent relatively high Russian aviation losses appear to be prompting a significant decrease in Russian aviation activity in eastern Ukraine, although it is unclear how long this decrease in activity will last. Ukrainian Air Force Commander Lieutenant General Mykola Oleshchuk stated on March 2 that Russian aviation activity completely stopped in eastern Ukraine around 19:00 local time following the Ukrainian downing of two Russian Su-34 aircraft.
Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Colonel Yuriy Ihnat stated that the decrease in Russian aviation activity continued on March 3 and that Russian forces have continued not to fly A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft following the destruction of an A-50 aircraft on February 23.
Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces have lost 15 aircraft since February 17, which is not negligible for the Russian military given that Russia likely has about 300 various Sukhoi fighter aircraft.
Previous Russian aircraft losses have prompted Russian forces to temporarily decrease aviation activity throughout Ukraine for significant periods of time, although it remains unclear how long this current period of temporarily decreased Russian aviation activity will last.
Russian forces appeared to tolerate an increased rate of aviation losses in recent weeks in order to conduct glide bomb strikes in support of ongoing Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine, and the Russian command may decide in the future to assume the risk of continued aviation losses in pursuit of further tactical gains.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-2-2024
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 2, 2024
Transfers of North Korean weapons to Russia by sea apparently paused as of mid-February 2024. North Korea-focused outlet NK Pro reported on February 29, citing satellite imagery, that Russian ships involved in the maritime transport of North Korean ammunition and weaponry to Russia have not docked at North Korea’s Rajin Port since February 12.
NK Pro reported that Russian ships have made at least 32 trips between the Rajin Port and Russia’s Dunay and Vostochny ports, Primorsky Krai since August 2023. NK Pro reported that the Russian Lady R cargo ship transported an unspecified number of shipping containers, likely containing North Korean ammunition and weapons, between North Korea and Russia from January 30 to February 8 and that the Maia-1 cargo ship arrived at Russia’s Vostochny Port from North Korea on February 12.
NK Pro reported that satellite imagery has not captured another large cargo ship traveling between the two piers or new deliveries to the Rajin Port since February 12 and suggested that the pause could be due to production issues in North Korea or other logistical issues.
NK Pro noted that North Korea could also be transporting weapons to Russia via air or rail. ISW previously reported that Russia uses the Baikal-Amur Railway and the East Siberian Railway to facilitate cargo transfers from and to China and North Korea, both countries that Russia is increasingly relying on for economic and military support respectively to sustain its war effort in Ukraine.
South Korean Defense Minister Shin Won-sik stated on February 26 that North Korea has sent an estimated 6,700 shipping containers of ammunition to Russia in recent months.
Shin stated that these containers could carry over three million 152mm artillery shells or roughly 500,000 122mm shells.
Waiting for Russian channels to start reporting on 200's and 300's.
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1764731596664352794
Explosions near Kerch bridge.
https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1764775555746935211
Unconfirmed reports starting to appear that the Russian Kalibr ship Sergei Kotov was just promoted to submarine near Kerch. Not confirmed.
Love these promotions!
Still unconfirmed but a lot of speculation on X.
Strange silence from both Ukrainian and Russian sides about what happened in Kerch.
“Unconfirmed reports starting to appear that the Russian Kalibr ship Sergei Kotov was just promoted to submarine near Kerch”
Putin continues his aggressive drive to demilitarize Russia. He is succeeding, we’re so many others have failed.
“The FBI has issued a public alert for the Iranian secret agent Majid Farahani.
His mission is to kill U.S. officials for the U.S. strike on Soleimani.
He speaks fluent Spanish, is often in Venezuela & could by trying to get into the U.S. across the southern border.”
The video of the ship Sergei Kotov exploding according to Z channels
https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1764894547149013158
Video from the drones attacking the Sergey Kotov.
https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1764931288560025718
Along with its sister ship the Vasily Bykov, the $65 Million Corvette the Sergei Kotov used to escort the Russian cargo ships, that used to smuggle weapons from Syria, across the Black Sea. Also, it had launched Kalibr cruise missiles against Ukrainian cities.
It had had a previous run in with Ukrainian unmanned surface vehicles back in September of 2023, which it had managed to survive.
This time however, it appears to have been overwhelmed by an improved Ukrainian drone swarm, with hits reported to its Stern, Port and Starboad. Drone video showed a drone guiding into a previous large gaping breach in the side of the ship’s hull.
Ukrainian drones rule the Sea around Crimea. The remnants of the former Black Sea Fleet seem doomed to suffer the same fate, the longer this war goes on.
Why does Putin continue to needlessly inflict such casualties on his own people, in a war he cannot win? He just can’t stop himself - he has to be stopped.
Looks like the ship managed to intercept and explode 2 UKR sea drones by opening welcome holes in its hull.
OT:
We have no heavy icebreakers. The only ‘operational’ one is falling apart, and its is only a Class 2 breaker.
The plan to build new ones is of course over budget and delayed until 2028. The requirement is that these ships be built in the US. Alas, the USA can no longer make the plate needed for Polar Class 1 heavy icebreakers, just as it cannot make the plate for battleships: we have lost the skill.
The Fins and the Russians still have this skill in steel making. The Chinese are in the process of acquiring it for their heavy icebreakers. Russia has perhaps the best heavy breakers in the world: nuclear powered, Class 1s can slice through ice 10 feet thick at speed of 10 knots, thicker ice slows them a bit. Not to mention the swimming pools and saunas for the crews.
There’s a wonderful video of some Russian ice fishermen in their pickups on the ice looking up in awe as the Russian nuclear powered ice breaker ‘50 Let Pobedy’ passes them doing 20 knots.
Since the US Coast Guard is currently incapable of fulfilling its Arctic missions, they are again looking into buying and existing Class 3 icebreaker built in the US in 2012. (Class 3 breakers can go through ice 3 feet thick at 3 knots. Class 1 are only Russian.)
Here’s more on the possible US Coast Guard purchase:
Coast Guard Poised To Buy Badly Needed Private Icebreaker
The Coast Guard is far from meeting ice-breaking mission demands in the strategic Arctic region and currently only has one heavy icebreaker.
https://www.twz.com/sea/coast-guard-poised-to-buy-badly-needed-private-icebreaker
Reporting From Ukraine:
Note: other versions of this report are found elsewhere on FR, but this is guaranteed to be the complete transcript - unlike the others.
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU
[ Ukrainians Dig in & Meet Russian Assaults With Vicious Ferocity ]
==
Day 740: Mar 04
Today, there are a lot of updates from the Bakhmut direction.
The most interesting news comes from the southern flank.
Near Kurdyumivka, Ukrainians conducted artillery bombardment of Russian positions. Artillerymen of the 28th Mechanized Brigade managed to hit many Russian positions in the village, forcing the Russian infantry to seek cover and never expose themselves outside.
A work of counter-battery fire can be seen too with positions of a Russian mortar crew being hit. This shows that Russians have a minimal number of forces and very few artillery systems in this area, which are likely allocated to other parts of the front, like Ivanivske.
This allows Ukrainian artillery to dominate around Kurdyumivka, with additional support of numerous drone strikes we saw before. All of these factors enable Ukrainians to disrupt Russian supply lines to the other combat zones in this direction.
A little bit to the north near Klischiivka, geolocated videos show us that Russians made minimal gains to the south of the railway embankment.
This yet again shows that Russian focus on taking Ivanivske is reducing their progress around Klischiivka. This is because Russians believe that taking that village will collapse the whole southern flank of Bakhmut and force the Ukrainians to withdraw from their positions.
The road to Ivanivske is not just linked to Chasiv Yar but also to Kostyantynivka, which is a major supply hub for Ukrainians in this direction.
Because of this, Russians launch missile strikes at Kostyantynivka to disrupt Ukrainian rotations and the supply chain to Ivanivske. Recent missile strikes led to destruction of the local train station, a supermarket and a church.
Missile impact on the church and supermarket are a result of inaccuracy of Russian missiles that only leads to civilian casualties. However the strike on the train station shows that Russians are working to disrupt Ukrainian supplies in this part of the frontline because lots of supplies and equipment are delivered by train.
From Konstantinivka the reinforcements and supplies are delivered by road to Ivanivske by the main supply road, and for that reason Russians are also shelling the road and western edges of Ivanivske. This confirms Ukrainian control over the village, which Russian sources claim to have already been taken.
To the north of Ivanivske, we only saw confirmations of small Russian gains on the hills overlooking the village. Here, Russians are engaged in heavy fights over the Ukrainian trench networks in the area.
During one of such fights the Russians execute nine Ukrainian prisoners of war out of desperation, after they endured through stiff Ukrainian defenses in the area.
In the fields east of Ivanivske, as turned out based on geolocated footage, the Russian zone of control is much smaller as the vast fields between Ivanivske and Khromove are under Ukrainian control.
This shows that the Russian control of the village is much smaller as well, with only parts of Sadova street under Russian control. Russians also shared combat footage showing the bombing of Ukrainian positions in central Ivanivske.
Russians understand that it is impossible to advance further without extensive artillery and air bombing preparations.
Due to the heavy usage of FAB-500 glide bombs across the front, we can see that Russians have established localized air superiority in the region.
For Ukrainian fighters the situation remains difficult, because after these preparations, Russians launch infantry assaults in hope of entering the center of the village, but, so far, they made no progress.
When it comes to the northern flank, the situation is very dynamic.
Here the Russians do not launch any assaults, but the bombing of Chasiv Yar is very intensive. Large numbers of glide bombs are launched at Kanal district, which is in the eastern part of the town. In this district there are many high rise buildings and an industrial zone.
From these positions, Ukrainians can repel Russian attacks in the same way as they did in Vuhledar. In order to set the proper conditions for an attacking the town, the only workable solution for the Russians is to bombard and demolish high rise buildings to prevent the Ukrainians from striking them from higher elevations.
It is clear that the main goal of Russian forces in this direction is to occupy Chasiv Yar and set the ground for a further assault on Kostyantynivka. For this purpose, Ukrainians will utilize plenty of advantages that they have in Chasiv Yar.
If we look at the topographic map, we can see that the town is on high elevations, and each town district is widely stretched across separate hills.
To the south of Chasiv Yar there is a large forest which can prevent Russians from launching armored assaults to the south of the town and reduce the fighting to stationary fights like the ones in forests of Kreminna.
In the central and eastern parts of the town there are several industrial zones that Ukrainians are already using as equipment storages, which is why Russians tried to bombard them with glide bombs.
Industrial zones are always made of concrete, hardened steel, reinforced materials and underground shelters which make them ideal fortifications in large urban battles.
Moreover, there is the Siversky-Donets canal, which splits Chasiv Yar in half, which will make the battle for the town significantly more difficult.
If Russians launch the attack on eastern Kanal district they would have to cross the canal, but that would only make them cannon fodder.
Overall, Ukrainians are holding their ground tightly across all of the Bakhmut direction, allowing little to no advances to Russian forces.
Meanwhile, Russians are desperately trying to make new gains ahead of the Presidential elections that will be held in just 2 weeks.
On top of that, the spring mud season will start very soon, so Russian forces want to dig in and secure their gains. This is because only pure infantry fights can be expected in the spring, which are very slow during the mud season.
However, based on the recent developments in the south, it is possible that Russian forces are just trying to force Ukrainians to relocate more troops to this region.
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