Skip the cheese, and spread on some hopium sauce!
Posted on 02/24/2024 5:59:01 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
“Secret talks of the best defenders of refineries possibly being sent to the front.”
Then one day, everybody gets classified as “best”...
You got mocked for your asinine claim that Europe “REQUIRED” Urals Grade oil.
As well you should be.
Details on Trump’s new direct sanctions on Russia. They will likely produce a near term train wreck for the companies normal logistics, support and administrative systems, and require higher cost workarounds to be developed, while forcing them to offer larger discounts. Wide-ranging impacts on their subsidiaries in many other countries as well. Could put a major dent in seaborne shipments to India and China.
Kyiv Independent (23 Oct):
“Trump’s Russia sanctions ‘a shock’ to Moscow, may deal ‘serious blow’ to oil giants, experts say
“The U.S. imposed sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, on Oct. 22, aiming to pressure the Kremlin into agreeing to a ceasefire in Ukraine.
The measures freeze all U.S.-based assets of those companies. They also pave the way for secondary sanctions against foreign institutions that handle transactions with those on the blacklist.
Experts described the move as “quite a shock” and a “serious blow” to Russia’s top oil exporters.
Rosneft and Lukoil are pillars of Russia’s economy. Together, they account for nearly half of the country’s crude-oil exports, around 3.1 million barrels per day, according to Russian estimates.
State-controlled Rosneft, led by Igor Sechin (one of the possible successors of Putin), a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, produces about 40% of Russia’s oil. Lukoil, the country’s largest private energy company, accounts for roughly 15% of the national output and 2% of the global production.
The new sanctions extend far beyond the parent companies, covering six Lukoil subsidiaries and 28 Rosneft enterprises. Among them is Lukoil-Western Siberia, which alone accounts for around 40% of the group’s hydrocarbon production.
Before this latest package, both firms were already under sectoral sanctions that banned U.S. entities from supplying drilling equipment, technology, or services for new Arctic, offshore, or shale projects. The Oct. 22 order, however, effectively blacklists them.
“The Americans imposed sanctions not only on Rosneft and Lukoil but also on all their subsidiaries where these companies hold more than a 50% stake,” said economist Oleh Pendzin, head of the Ukrainian Economic Discussion Club.
“This directly affects European subsidiaries and those in third countries. Their ability to conduct business in these markets is now severely restricted.”
The expert said oil companies rely on a vast ecosystem of logistics, shipping, and insurance.
Once sanctioned, “contractors and intermediaries quickly pull away — no one wants to get involved with a sanctioned entity,” Pendzin added.
The impact is already rippling through global markets. India — one of Russia’s largest buyers — is reportedly expected to sharply curtail its imports.
According to Bloomberg, citing unnamed executives at Indian oil companies, India’s biggest refineries are expected to reduce purchases from Rosneft and Lukoil to virtually zero.
In September, India imported 1.6 million barrels of Russian oil per day, roughly 36% of its total needs. At their peak earlier this year, shipments reached 2 million barrels daily.
“Banks in India and China risk becoming targets of secondary sanctions if they continue working with blacklisted entities.”
For Moscow, India has been the largest market for seaborne oil exports and the second-largest overall buyer after China. The new restrictions threaten to close that crucial outlet.
“The new U.S. sanctions are currently quite a shock for the Russians, and the buyers of Russian oil, especially India,” said Vasily Astrov, senior economist at the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies.
“But experience shows that ways will be found to circumvent these sanctions over the coming months, e.g., by ‘founding’ new shell companies that are not subject to sanctions.”
Astrov added that cheap Russian oil remains attractive to Asian markets.
But as Pendzin noted, “banks in India and China risk becoming targets of secondary sanctions if they continue working with blacklisted entities.”
According to Reuters, Chinese state-owned oil companies have also suspended purchases of seaborne Russian crude following the sanctions, amid fears of potential secondary sanctions.
Will the sanctions bite? Experts say the sanctions might squeeze Russia’s oil sector, at least in the short term.
“Tighter constraints on payments, shipping, and insurance raise costs and deepen discounts, reducing the export tax take for Moscow,” said Oleksandr Talavera, professor of financial economics at the University of Birmingham...
...Putin acknowledged on Oct. 23 that the new U.S. measures would have “consequences.”
“(The sanctions) are serious for us... that’s clear, and they will have certain consequences,” Putin said. “But they will not significantly affect our economic well-being.”
Still, some analysts remain skeptical that the measures will be decisive.
Chatham House associate fellow Timothy Ash told the Kyiv Independent that while the sanctions send a political signal, they may not drastically alter Russia’s revenues.
“The U.K. has already sanctioned these entities,” he said, noting London’s Oct. 15 move to sanction Rosneft and Lukoil in what the U.K. government described as their “strongest sanctions yet.”
“Symbolically, perhaps it will have some effect as it might suggest that the U.S. might be willing to do something more significant going forward,” Ash added.”
...and just like that, it looks like the brief oil price bump after President Trump announced sanctions has peaked, and started back down.
What was that, 2 days? Not even quiet two full days? A tiny short $4 bump.
It is going to cost Rosneft and Lukoil significantly more, for significantly longer.
Last night Rosneft’s big Ryazan refinery was hit and set ablaze. The night before, their refinery in Dagestan. How about tonight, tomorrow and the rest of the Winter?
They are Doomed, because of Putin.
Skip the cheese, and spread on some hopium sauce!
You HAVE to be a government shill - who else would advocate paying more than you have to for oil?>
"No, I refuse to pay 2 bucks a gallon for gasoline, because I don't like the owner. I'll go to the next corner, and pay 5 bucks a gallon. Put that on my .gov credit card. After all, the chumps are picking up the tab - at gunpoint."
“Next Tuesday, of course”
This last Tuesday, Rosneft’s refinery in Dagestan was struck by at least seven Ukrainian drones, setting the facility ablaze, and disabling a critical foreign made cracking tower. Not many of those, Russia doesn’t make them, and Rosneft is under sanctions now, and not allowed to buy them.
No need to wait until the next Tuesday, Rosneft’s next refinery set afire the very next night (Ryazan). It is a few a week now, as the hard Winter approaches. Only a Kremlin shill would pretend to not see that pattern. Or a fool.
Fool or knave? Or both?
What Ukrainian energy structure doink, Ukie knave?
This handful of diehards are propagandists on meth.
The People's Republic of China (PRC) and Indian oil companies are reportedly significantly reducing direct purchases of Russian oil in the short term, and the European Union (EU) passed its 19th sanctions package against Russia, primarily targeting the Russian energy sector. Reuters reported on October 23, citing multiple trade sources, that major PRC state oil companies — including PetroChina, SinoPec, CNOOC, and Zhenhua Oil — suspended purchases of seaborne Russian oil “at least in the short term” following the October 22 US sanctions against Russian state oil company Rosneft and the private Russian oil company Lukoil.[1] Trade sources told Reuters that Rosneft and Lukoil sell most oil to the PRC indirectly by going through intermediaries, but that intendent PRC refiners are more likely to pause buying to assess the impact of sanctions. The trade sources stated that independent PRC refiners would still likely seek to purchase Russian oil despite the sanctions. Bloomberg and Reuters reported on October 23 citing refineries and industry sources that Indian oil refineries will significantly cut Russian oil imports due to the US sanctions.[2] An industry source told Reuters that India's cut of Russian oil imports will be “massive” but not total or immediate as Indian refineries will still import some barrels of Russian crude oil through intermediaries.[3]
The EU sanctions package bans Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports into the EU beginning in January 2027 for long-term contracts and within six months (by April 23, 2026) for short-term contracts.[4] The package also targets tankers assessed to be part of the Russian shadow fleet, a United Arab Emirates (UAE) entity that serves as a conduit for the Russian shadow fleet by circumventing EU sanctions, and four PRC oil refineries. The EU also sanctioned Russian financial institutions and operators from the UAE and the PRC that supply military and dual-use goods to Russia. The EU imposed additional travel restrictions and authorization requirements for Russian diplomats and sanctioned 11 individuals involved in the illegal deportation, abduction, and militarized education of Ukrainian children.
Senior Kremlin officials publicly characterized the United States and US President Donald Trump as Russia's adversary and “unfriendly” to Russia in response to the October 22 US sanctions against Russia's energy sector. Russian President Vladimir Putin stated on October 23 that Trump imposed these sanctions to pressure Russia and noted that the sanctions are “an unfriendly act toward Russia.”[5] Putin claimed that Trump's actions are damaging Russian-US relations and disrupting the global energy market. Putin continued to posture Russian economic resilience regarding Western sanctions, claiming that “[Russia] feel[s] confident [and] stable despite certain losses” but noted that “there is nothing good or pleasant” about the new US sanctions against Russia — an implicit acknowledgement that the sanctions will harm Russia's economy. Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev stated on both his English- and Russian-language Telegram accounts on October 23 that “the United States is [Russia's] adversary” and that the United States is now fully embracing its “warpath against Russia.”[6] Medvedev added that Russia's war in Ukraine is now Trump's war and that the United States recent policy decisions are an “act of war against Russia.” The Kremlin typically permits Medvedev to insert hyperbolic statements into the information space that reflect the fringe of the Kremlin's positions and directly communicate the subtext of messages from other Russian officials.[7] Putin and other senior Kremlin officials have not publicly defined the United States as Russia's adversary during the Trump administration until October 23 and have been careful in their criticisms of the United States under the Trump administration, likely to achieve concessions in Russia's war in Ukraine, avoid US sanctions, and attempt to conclude bilateral economic deals.[8] Putin and Medvedev’s statements are a significant rhetorical inflection that likely seek to exculpate Russia for refusing to negotiate with Ukraine or agree to ceasefires previously proposed by the United States and Ukraine.
Other Russian officials continue to posture economic resilience and the necessity of achieving Russia's war aims, likely to prepare Russian domestic audiences for the economic impact of Western sanctions and a prolonged war effort. Russian State Duma Deputy Svetlana Zhurova claimed on October 23 that sanctions against Russia will not impact Russia's policies – likely referring to the war in Ukraine — and that the Trump administration's pressure against Russia does not address the issues necessary to end the war.[9] Russian State Duma International Affairs Committee First Deputy Head Alexei Chepa responded on October 22 to Trump's criticisms of Putin's willingness to make peace, claiming that Trump's “blunt and sweeping” statements and cancellation of the Trump-Putin meeting in Budapest do not mean that the United States and Russia have stopped preparations for the next summit.[10] Chepa claimed that Trump's proposal for an immediate ceasefire will have no effect as it does not address the “root causes” of Russia's war in Ukraine, justifying to domestic Russian audiences Putin's rejection of Trump's peace efforts.[11] These statements from senior Kremlin officials and prominent Russian State Duma deputies deflect blame from Russia's long-standing rejection of repeated attempts to progress the peace initiative in Ukraine, the actual reason for the lack of meaningful peace negotiations. Trump, when asked a question about how Putin stated that sanctions will not meaningfully impact Russia, stated, “I'm glad [Putin] feels that way. I'll let you know about it six months from now… Let's see how it all works out.”[12]
Geolocated footage from Kherson Oblast occupation head Vladimir Saldo published on October 22 shows a Russian servicemember raising a flag on Karantynnyi Island in 5th Selishche Microraion in southwestern Kherson City.[13] Saldo claimed that unspecified Russian reconnaissance and airborne (VDV) units conducted an operation to cross the Dnipro River and seized a bridgehead on Karantynnyi Island. Saldo claimed that the Russian forces repelled Ukrainian counterattacks, secured a bridgehead, mined the approaches to the new Russian positions, and are now organizing logistics to Karantynnyi Island. Some Russian milbloggers amplified Saldo’s claims and credited drone operators of the 31st VDV Brigade with gaining air superiority for the Russian crossing and artillery elements of the 18th Combined Arms Army (CAA) (Southern Military District [SMD]) with striking Ukrainian positions on Karantynnyi Island and bridges from mainland Kherson City to the island.[14] A milblogger claimed that Russian sabotage and assault groups are preparing to search for and eliminate groups of Ukrainian forces in Korabelnyi Microraion (northeastern Karantynnyi Island).[15]
Available evidence continues to indicate that Russian forces have not established a bridgehead or begun an offensive in west bank Kherson Oblast. A Ukrainian brigade published footage on October 23 that ISW geolocated showing Ukrainian forces freely operating in Kherson City's Ostriv Microraion (on Karantynnyi Island immediately north of 5th Selishche Microraion).[16] The Ukrainian brigade reported that Karantynnyi Island and the areas of Antonivka and Sadove (both east of Kherson City on the west bank) are “silent” and that Russian forces are not operating on the west bank of the Dnipro River. A Russian milblogger focusing on the Kherson direction recently claimed that Russian forces conducted sabotage and reconnaissance operations near Antonivka and Sadove and forced Ukrainian forces to withdraw from Sadove – claims that are not supported by any available reporting of Russian operations.[17] Russia is likely conducting a cognitive warfare effort to portray limited Russian sabotage and reconnaissance operations in the Kherson direction as the start of a dedicated Russian offensive to cross the Dnipro River and recapture Kherson City and Oblast.[18] The Kremlin likely intends to convince the West, European Union (EU), and Ukraine that a Russian victory is inevitable such that Ukraine should submit to Russia's demands to cede territory and that allies should stop supporting Ukraine.[19] ISW continues to assess that this Russian cognitive warfare effort is incompatible with any claim that Russia is willing to make territorial concessions in southern Ukraine.[20]
Russian forces continue to increase the frequency of mechanized assaults in eastern and southern Ukraine, likely to take advantage of rainy and foggy weather conditions that complicate Ukrainian drone operations. Geolocated footage published on October 23 shows a Russian roughly reinforced platoon-sized mechanized and motorized assault toward Siversk from Serebryanka (north of Siversk) and Verkhnokamyanske (east of Siversk).[21] A Ukrainian drone battalion that repelled the assault reported that Ukrainian forces destroyed a tank, three infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs), three buggies, and roughly 20 motorcycles in the assault.[22] Ukrainian 11th Army Corps Spokesperson Dmytro Zaporozhets reported on October 23 that Ukrainian forces repelled an at least platoon-sized Russian mechanized assault in Chasiv Yar, destroying two MT-LB armored fighting vehicles (AFVs) and two all-terrain vehicles (ATVs) and killing roughly 40 Russian servicemembers.[23] Weather monitoring services indicate that the Siversk and Chasiv Yar areas experienced cloudy conditions on October 23, and that it rained in Chasiv Yar on October 23.[24] Russian forces conducted an at least reduced platoon-sized mechanized assault near Myrnohrad (east of Pokrovsk) on October 22 as the area experienced cloud cover.[25] ISW observed that Russian forces exploited precipitation to conduct a reduced battalion-sized mechanized assault near Mala Tokmachka (southeast of Orikhiv) and a reinforced company-sized mechanized assault near Novoandriivka (west of Orikhiv) on October 20.[26] ISW continues to assess that Russian forces are exploiting poor weather conditions to conduct mechanized assaults as foggy and rainy conditions degrade the effectiveness of Ukrainian drone surveillance and strikes.[27] The season change to autumn is also reportedly making drones more effective by depriving Russian soldiers of some concealment. A Ukrainian brigade operating in the Lyman direction reported that the autumnal lack of foliage is complicating Russian forces’ ability to evade Ukrainian drones.[28]
Ukraine's partners continue to support Ukraine through the Prioritized Ukrainian Requirements List (PURL) initiative to purchase US military equipment for Ukraine. Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo announced on October 23 that Finland will allocate 100 million euros (about $116 million) in its first contribution to the PURL initiative, which funds NATO purchases of US-made weapons for Ukraine, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Spain is joining the PURL initiative.[29]
Russian forces continue to target and kill civilians, first responders, and journalists. The Donetsk Oblast Prosecutor's Office reported on October 23 that Russian forces executed at least four civilians sheltering in private homes in Zvanivka, Bakhmutsky Raion on October 20, 2025.[30] Russian soldiers have committed extreme atrocities against civilians and soldiers in occupied Ukraine, and ISW continues to assess that Russian battlefield commanders enable and even order atrocities including summary executions.[31] The Ukrainian State Emergency Service reported on October 23 that Russian forces conducted a double-tap strike against first responders in Zelenyi Hai, Kharkiv Oblast, killing one first responder and injuring five others.[32] Russian forces have conducted double-tap strikes targeting first responders in Ukraine to spread fear among Ukrainian civilians and maximize the degree of casualties and damage from Russian strike series in Ukraine. [33]
Ukraine and Russia conducted another exchange of the bodies of soldiers killed in action (KIA) on October 23. The Ukrainian Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War (POWs) reported on October 23 that Russia released 1,000 bodies that it claimed belonged to deceased Ukrainian servicemembers.[34] Ukraine's “I Want to Find” project reported on October 23 that Ukraine released the bodies of 31 KIA Russian servicemembers.[35]
Belarus is strengthening military cooperation and import substitution initiatives with Iran. Belarusian State Military-Industrial Committee reported on October 23 that State Committee for Military Industry Chairman Dmitry Pantus met with Iranian officials to discuss further military-technical cooperation and cooperation through import substitution and strengthened technological sovereignty.[115]
more + maps https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-23-2025/
“(The sanctions) are serious for us... that’s clear, and they will have certain consequences,” Putin said. “But they will not significantly affect our economic well-being.”
—
As long as Russia’s 2 largest banks retain access to the Swift banking system.
Having access and access to much are different I would imagine.
Now that the banks are forced to buy worthless govt bonds, imagine that is final stake for them.
No personal or business loans, just buying govt bonds.
Winter is going to be interesting
Ukraine has shown great restraint in not attacking Belarus, they are Russia’s Switzerland
Ukraine has shown great restraint in not attacking Belarus, they are Russia’s Switzerland
—
That might be because Russia is preparing Belarus as a launching platform for future strike on the Baltics?
That explains Russia’s position, but not Ukraines
I understand the ramifications of Ukraine attacking Belarus, but beyond nuclear retaliation, what is russia going to do?
Have thought from the beginning that this is an economic war, Russia will only quit when they can’t afford to fight anymore and Belarus is one of their economic life lines.
Food, fuel, ammunition… imagine as well that Russia is using Belarus to avoid sanctions
This morning in the Middle East we saw what Donald Trump can accomplich when not tied down by war and malignant hoaxes like Russiagate.
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