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Attack On Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine (2 year anniversary)
ORYX ^ | Since February 24, 2022 and daily | ORYX

Posted on 02/24/2024 5:59:01 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas

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To: gleeaikin; BeauBo; blitz128
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 16, 2025

US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke on the phone on October 16. Trump stated that the two leaders had a “very productive” call and that the two largely discussed potential bilateral economic prospects to pursue after a resolution to the war in Ukraine.[1] Trump stated that the two agreed that there will be a high-level advisor meeting at an unspecified date next week (between October 19 and 25) and an unspecified location with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio leading the US delegation. Trump stated that he and Putin will then meet in Budapest to discuss a resolution to the war. Trump noted that he will discuss the contents of his October 16 phone call with Putin with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during Zelensky’s visit to Washington on October 17. Trump told reporters on October 16 that he will be meeting with Putin in “two weeks or so” and that Rubio will be meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov “pretty soon.”[2] Trump suggested that he, Zelensky, and Putin may coordinate “separate but equal” meetings.[3] Trump stated that Putin “really did not like the idea” of the United States sending “a couple thousand Tomahawks” to Ukraine when Trump raised the question.[4]

Russian Presidential Aide Yuriy Ushakov attempted to obfuscate Russia's deliberate attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure in his statement on the October 16 Trump-Putin call. Ushakov claimed that the Trump-Putin call discussed how Ukrainian forces are allegedly using “terrorist methods” to strike civilian and energy infrastructure in Russia since Russia maintains the strategic initiative on the battlefield.[5] Ushakov claimed that the Ukrainian strikes are “forcing” Russia to respond “accordingly.” Ukraine's recent long-range strike campaign is targeting Russia's energy sector in order to degrade Russia's capacity to fund its war against Ukraine and to fuel its fighting forces.[6] Russian forces, in contrast, have been deliberately targeting Ukrainian civilians and civilian infrastructure, including by conducting first-person view (FPV) drone strikes systematically targeting civilians in Kherson Oblast since late 2023, long predating Ukraine's recent long-range strike campaign against Russian energy.[7] Open-source investigative outlet Tochnyi reported on September 28 that Russian drone strikes have resulted in 2,877 Ukrainian civilian casualties in Kherson City alone since 2023.[8]

Ushakov also claimed that US Tomahawk sales to Ukraine would not affect the battlefield situation and would “significantly damage” bilateral US-Russia relations.[9] Ushakov’s claims are a continuation of the Kremlin's reflexive control campaign to deter US sales of Tomahawks to Ukraine.[10] ISW continues to assess that the US deliveries of Tomahawk missiles would not lead to a significant escalation in Russia's war against Ukraine, given Russia's own frequent use of comparable long-range cruise missiles against Ukraine but could make a notable contribution to Ukraine's efforts to defend itself, as ISW has noted.[11]

Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) Head Alexander Bortnikov on October 16 falsely accused the United Kingdom (UK) of fueling “hysteria” about the threat Russia poses to Europe and claimed that “NATO intelligence services” participated in the recent drone incursions over European countries that Russia actually conducted.[12] Bortnikov accused the UK of trying to establish a naval blockade of Kaliningrad Oblast and the Baltic Sea and attempted to discredit recent UK sanctions against the Russian oil industry and shadow fleet as part of the alleged “blockade” campaign.[13] Bortnikov also accused the UK of planning sabotage operations with Ukrainian special services against the TurkStream pipeline and Russian critical infrastructure.[14] Bortnikov’s accusations against the UK follow an October 6 claim by Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) that the UK is planning for a group of pro-Ukrainian Russians fighting for Ukraine to conduct an attack on a Ukrainian Navy ship or a foreign civilian vessel in a European port.[15] The SVR has been releasing similar claims more frequently in recent weeks, constituting a new concerted pattern of activity that is likely part of Russia's “Phase Zero” informational and psychological condition setting phase for a higher level of NATO-Russia conflict.[16] The FSB and SVR are likely engaged in a cognitive warfare campaign aimed at sowing confusion among the European population and the international community about the actor responsible for a variety of overt and covert attacks against NATO states, such as sabotage missions, electronic warfare (EW) interference, GPS jamming, drone incursions, and arson. Officials from several European states have identified Russia as responsible for many of these attacks, including many of the drone incursions into European airspace in the past few weeks.[17] The European Parliament also passed a resolution on October 9 identifying Russia as responsible for many of the recent “escalatory actions” and deliberate drone incursions.[18]

Russian forces are reportedly using North Korean forces operating in Russia in ways that will allow North Korean forces to take battlefield lessons learned back to North Korea. The Ukrainian General Staff released footage on October 16 showing North Korean drone operators in Kursk Oblast and reported that North Korean forces are conducting short-range quadcopter reconnaissance drone missions from Kursk Oblast to identify and adjust fires to support Russian forces conducting offensive operations in Sumy Oblast.[19] North Korean involvement in drone operations rather than the highly attritional infantry assaults that characterized North Korea's operations in Kursk Oblast in 2024-2025 increases the likelihood that North Korean personnel will survive and be able to bring important experience in modern war back to North Korea.[20] The North Korean military command will likely integrate and disseminate the lessons that North Korean forces learn in Russia throughout the North Korean army. The Russian military command's decision to employ North Korean forces as drone operators likely allows Russian forces to avoid overcoming at scale the language barrier that reportedly plagued previous North Korean-Russian joint missions in Kursk Oblast or restructuring Russian forces to integrate North Korean soldiers.[21]

Russian forces are reportedly adapting their long-range drone and missile strike tactics targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure in an attempt to disrupt the Ukrainian power system on a large scale. Ukrainian outlet Ukrainska Pravda reported on October 16 that Russia relied on “carpet bombing” in Winter 2022-2023, striking various targets throughout Ukraine with a high quantity of drones and missiles, but is now using “piecemeal” tactics to target Ukrainian energy infrastructure oblast by oblast.[22] Ukrainska Pravda stated that Russian forces are targeting frontline and border areas, conducting localized strikes against Sumy and Chernihiv oblasts while also regularly but less intensely striking Kharkiv, Odesa, Mykolaiv, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts. Russia is reportedly trying to destroy both local energy generation capabilities and delivery and distribution systems by attacking substations. Ukrainska Pravda reported that Russian forces primarily used drones for these purposes in August and September 2025, launching 10 to 40 drones against one target in a single wave. Russian forces are reportedly now deploying a series of waves with several drones every hour and then subsequently conducting massive missile strikes. Ukrainska Pravda stated that Russia aims to create a blackout in Ukraine by creating a power deficit in eastern Ukraine, where consumption is typically higher and where Russian forces have destroyed almost all local generation capabilities, while gradually stopping the flow of electricity from west to east. One source told Ukrainska Pravda that the number of drones Russia is launching against each target is making defense difficult and that a single precise hit is enough to disable a power plant's power unit. A manager of a Ukrainian energy company reportedly stated that Russia also aims to disrupt Ukraine's gas sector such that Ukraine cannot reliably supply fuel to generate electricity and heat.

Recent Russian drone technological adaptations are likely facilitating Russia's strike campaign against Ukraine's energy sector. Russian sources recently published footage of a Russian strike in Chernihiv Oblast with an MS variant of the Shahed drone, which reportedly includes a thermal imaging camera and video stream and has a range of up to 200 kilometers.[23] Russia is also reportedly using thermobaric warheads on its Shahed drones, allowing Russian strikes to destroy facilities even in hardened shelters like the ones Ukraine is installing to protect energy facilities.[24] Russian strikes targeting power infrastructure in frontline areas, particularly Sumy and Chernihiv oblasts, may aim to achieve some battlefield effects by forcing Ukrainian forces operating in the area to rely on generators, creating vulnerabilities to further Russian strikes. Generators require large and reliable supplies of fuel, and Russia's widespread campaign to strike Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) could inhibit Ukraine's ability to rely on generators at scale near the line of contact.[25]

Ukraine's European partners announced new military assistance for Ukraine at the October 15 Ukraine Defense Contact Group (the Ramstein Format) meeting. NATO General Secretary Mark Rutte stated that 17 NATO member states committed to join the Prioritized Ukrainian Requirements List (PURL) initiative, which funds NATO purchases of US-made weapons for Ukraine.[26] Ukrainian Defense Minister Denys Shmyhal stated that new PURL funding totaled at least $422 million.[27] Shmyhal stated that Ukraine's PURL needs in 2026 will range from $12 billion to $20 billion.[28] Shmyhal stated that Ukraine will be able to produce up to 20 million drones in 2026 if Ukraine's partners provide the necessary funding and noted that Ukrainian drone and missile production requires over $4 billion in immediate funding.[29]

Shmyhal stated that several European states contributed funding toward purchases from the Ukrainian defense industrial base (DIB), including $600 million from Norway for drones, electronic warfare (EW) systems, and explosives; $106 million from the Netherlands for drones; $8 million from Canada for interceptor drones; and $4 million from Iceland within the “Danish Model” (in which Ukraine's partners buy Ukrainian-manufactured weapons for the Ukrainian military).[30] Shmyhal also announced several European packages of military aid to Ukraine, including $8 billion from Sweden for security assistance in 2026-2027; $72 million from the Czech Republic; $20 million from Canada for winter equipment and missile components; and $12 million from Portugal to the International Fund for Ukraine (IFU), a British mechanism that uses financial contributions from Ukraine's partners to purchase military equipment for Ukraine. The Danish Ministry of Defense (MoD) reported that Denmark will provide Ukraine with a new military aid package worth 1.1 billion kroner (roughly $172 million), including maritime equipment and funding for training.[31] Shmyhal announced that Ukraine signed an agreement with Germany to expand bilateral technological and defense industrial cooperation.[32] Germany and Ukraine will develop joint industrial products to produce Lynx infantry fighting vehicles and ammunition, and to repair Gepard anti-aircraft guns and Leopard tanks.

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-16-2025/

20,861 posted on 10/17/2025 9:36:12 AM PDT by AdmSmith (GCTGATATGTCTATGATTACTCAT)
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To: PIF; FtrPilot; marcusmaximus; AdmSmith; BeauBo; blitz128; BroJoeK; SpeedyInTexas; ...

Well, I guess it is time for me to boo hoo hoo to other
zeepers as ANKE suggests in his comment #20,859. I wonder if I should report abuse for being called a liar, when I only raise questions, or report thoughts of identified others. Or when I suggest possible consequences of major changes in how things are done in our country. On the other hand, perhaps ANKE and Preston are performing elder abuse when I am told I need glasses when it doesn’t occur to me to look at everything I wrote on the ping line when it looked correct when I wrote it. Or that as Granny Glee, I am somehow a flawed human being. I am proud of my two sons (one of whom just retired from more than 25 years in Special Forces and 82nd Airborne) and 3 grandsons who are currently serving or have served in our military. At 87, I certainly have no intention of going to Ukraine to fight as it is sometimes we pro-Ukraine commenters are told to do, but I certainly recognize a grandson might have to go some time in the future. I have no intention of ever addressing Preston, ANKE, kiry or the others directly, but I also will not let them silence me. You all also keep up your good work at Attack on Europe or elsewhere. Feel free to ping on any other important topic where you might be commenting. Just don’t put me on a ping list. ;-) Cheers, FRiends


20,862 posted on 10/17/2025 9:47:33 AM PDT by gleeaikin (Quest/ion Authority: report facts, and post their links.isT)
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To: blitz128

As one who has also been insulted by others for failing to catch typos in comments, I wonder if you are having the same problem that I have with my Chromebooks. I thought the new one would be much better, but it still jumps around lands in the middle of previous writing, “corrects” my spelling or capitalization, or even jumps to a completely different site. Is this just a Chromebook issue, or do other lower cost lap tops have these issues?


20,863 posted on 10/17/2025 10:07:58 AM PDT by gleeaikin (Question Authority: report facts, and post their links.)
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To: blitz128; BeauBo; AdmSmith

It must be hard to do a “war pig” mask for someone like Bolton who has a mustache.


20,864 posted on 10/17/2025 10:17:21 AM PDT by gleeaikin (Question Authority: report facts, and post their links.)
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To: gleeaikin
I posted your own words, so go ahead and report abuse on me and on yourself as well.

Nobody wants to silence you. Read your own posts and see who is trying to silence who.

Are your familiar with the U.S. Landstuhl Regional Medical Center in Germany??
I have worked there and I've seen and taken care of the soldiers with lost limbs, the injuries, the death, and the devastated families....

If you're itching for WW3 and want the Nukes to fly, be my guest and do your own warmongering bidding.
No U.S. soldier should ever be put into a eastern European war that "Sharp as a Tack" got us involved in.
20,865 posted on 10/17/2025 10:49:01 AM PDT by ANKE69 (The fact that I am Jewish barely makes 20 in my long list of faults" Zelensky in 2019 )
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To: gleeaikin

lol my issue is that I do all of this on my iPhone 7 and I miss typos, but in reality I don’t care unlike the resident grammar and spelling Nazi, posts here are not term papers😂


20,866 posted on 10/17/2025 11:09:54 AM PDT by blitz128
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To: blitz128
posts here are not term papers

lol You did term papers in high school? 😂

PS: I added the lol and 😂 because you sprinkle every post with them 😂 lol

20,867 posted on 10/17/2025 11:18:38 AM PDT by JonPreston ( ✌ ☮️ )
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To: gleeaikin; ANKE69; blitz128
😂

perhaps ANKE and Preston are performing elder abuse when I am told I need glasses

This nuthouse gets funnier every day 😂

20,868 posted on 10/17/2025 11:23:09 AM PDT by JonPreston ( ✌ ☮️ )
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To: zoom
🍈

the economy


20,869 posted on 10/17/2025 12:13:07 PM PDT by JonPreston ( ✌ ☮️ )
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To: blitz128

It helps that in the midst of an ugly war we can catch a laugh now and then. ;-)


20,870 posted on 10/17/2025 12:54:38 PM PDT by gleeaikin (Question Authority: report facts, and post their links.)
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To: gleeaikin
but I certainly recognize a grandson might have to go some time in the future

Rather than volunteer your g'son, I'd run it by him first. Agreeing to fight for Zelensky might be grounds for involuntary commitment.

20,871 posted on 10/17/2025 1:34:44 PM PDT by JonPreston ( ✌ ☮️ )
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