Posted on 02/24/2024 5:59:01 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
The stick was the best option Russians have?😂
So, currently a small number of these launchers are inactive, though the US Army is interested in adding this mobile launcher to the Typhon in order to increase distribution and survivability. In Ukraine, these would be incredibly difficult to target, not to mention how easy it would be to build dozens of decoys.
how easy it would be to build dozens of decoys
—
Drones are everywhere - there is no real place to hide them, and decoys would be spotted easily with FPV Russian drones. They tried that with Patriots and now they are all spotted.
Size and mobility wise, these are closer to a HIMARS than Typhon. Patriot batteries have a huge footprint and are near impossible to hide. They also located by Russian ELINT.
The Kremlin continues its reflective control campaign aimed at preventing the US from selling Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated on October 7 that the US sending Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine would be a “serious escalation” that would not change the situation on the frontline in Ukraine and noted that Tomahawk missiles can carry a nuclear warhead.[1] Peskov stated that Putin made his position “unequivocally” clear on how Russia would respond to such action, referring to Putin's October 2 and 5 threats against the US provision of Tomahawk missiles. Putin threateningly warned the United States against selling Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine on October 2, claiming that American military personnel would have to directly participate in Ukrainian Tomahawk strikes.[2] Putin later threatened on October 5 that US provisions of Tomahawk missiles would “lead to the destruction” of the “emerging positive trend” in US-Russian relations. ISW continues to assess that the Kremlin is attempting to portray potential US Tomahawk deliveries to Ukraine as a dangerous escalation to deter the United States from sending such weapons to Ukraine.
Other Russian officials are echoing Putin's threats. Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev absurdly claimed on October 7 that Ukraine would use US-made Tomahawk missiles to strike Paris, Berlin, and Warsaw and that US President Donald Trump ”should understand that.”[3] Russian Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR) Head and Duma Deputy Leonid Slutsky claimed that Trump would greatly increase the risk of starting a third world war if the US sold Tomahawks to Ukraine and that Russia would not be responsible for such increased risk.[4] Russian State Duma Deputy Maksim Ivanov and Russian Senator Vladimir Dzhabarov similarly claimed that Russia would be forced to launch a “preemptive” strike against Ukraine and that “not only Ukraine will suffer” if the US sends Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine.[5] The Kremlin has previously conducted similar influence operations when the United States was discussing sending Ukraine Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS), High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), F-16 fighter jets, and Abrams tanks, and has routinely successfully delayed the provision of Western weapons to Ukraine.[6] Previous Western weapons provisions and Ukrainian strikes using US-provided long-range weapons systems, however, did not trigger an escalatory Russian reaction, and the West and Ukraine have repeatedly violated Russia's alleged “red lines” in the past with no resulting escalation.[7] These recent Russian threats about Tomahawk missile provisions are part of Russia's wider reflexive control campaign that aims to coerce Russia's opponents to make policy decisions that actually benefit Russia.[8]
Leaked Russian estimates of Russian killed in action (KIA) to wounded in action (WIA) rates in Ukraine underscore the impact of increased tactical drone usage in Ukraine and the extent to which drones complicate ground advances and casualty evacuation. Ukraine's “I Want to Live” initiative published leaked Russian data on October 6 detailing Russian military casualties from January to August 2025.[9] The data indicates that Russian forces suffered a total of 281,550 casualties of which: 86,744 were killed in action (KIA), including 1,583 officers and 8,633 penal recruits; 33,996 are missing in action (MIA), including 11,427 penal recruits; 158,529 were wounded in action (WIA), including 6,356 officers and 16,489 penal recruits; and 2,311 were captured. Ukraine's “I Want to Live” initiative's data on total Russian military casualties from January to August 2025 is similar to Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi’s report that Russian forces had suffered 299,210 casualties since January 2025 as of September 9.[10] Ukraine's “I Want to Live” initiative reported that Russia's casualty ratio is one KIA for every 1.3 WIA, likely due to insufficient tactical medicine training and the Russian military command's frequent failure to sufficiently rehabilitate WIA. The standard KIA to WIA ratio is one-to-three, which demonstrates that the Russian forces currently appear to have an abnormally high KIA to WIA ratio (1:1.3) likely due to the efficacy of pervasive tactical-level drone strikes that have created kill zones (an area immediately near the frontline where a mass of tactical strike and reconnaissance drones pose an elevated risk to any equipment or personnel that enters the area) throughout the theater, complicating both sides ability to evacuate casualties and triage WIA.[11] ISW has previously observed reports that the Russian military command is struggling to and frequently refusing to recover WIA, likely due to the threat of Ukrainian drone strikes that are significantly complicating movement on the battlefield.[12]
The leaked estimates indicate that Russian forces suffered their highest casualties in the Pokrovsk, Kupyansk, and Lyman directions between January and August 2025, reflecting command prioritization of these sectors of the front. The “I Want to Live” documents indicate that the Russian Central Grouping of Forces, responsible for the Pokrovsk direction, suffered the heaviest casualties during this period, with 43,709 killed, missing, and captured and 52,865 wounded.[13] These figures reflect the Russian military command's prioritization of the Pokrovsk direction throughout 2025, as Russian forces suffered roughly 34 percent of their casualties in this direction during the first eight months of 2025. The Central Grouping of Forces’ 2nd Combined Arms Army (CAA) (Central Military District [CMD]) suffered 15,310 killed, missing, and captured and 16,260 wounded, and the 51st CAA (formerly 1st Donetsk People's Republic Army Corps [DNR AC], Southern Military District [SMD]) suffered 13,000 killed, missing, and captured and 14,201 wounded — the heaviest casualties out of Russia's CAAs. The 2nd CAA has been involved in fighting mainly south and east of Pokrovsk since October 2023 and the 51st CAA redeployed to the frontline east of Pokrovsk in early 2025 and is currently responsible for Russia's penetration toward Dobropillya.[14] The Central Grouping of Forces’ 41st CAA, active in the Novopavlivka and Pokrovsk directions, suffered 7,544 killed, missing, and captured and 13,335 wounded. Russian forces have failed to seize Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad, Novopavlivka, or Druzhkivka after months of fighting despite sustaining significant casualties.
The documents reveal that Russia's Northern Grouping of Forces, which eliminated much of Ukraine's penetration into Kursk Oblast in early 2025 and is responsible for Russia's ongoing efforts to create buffer zones in Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts, suffered 53,572 casualties, second only to the Central Grouping of Forces. Russian forces may have sustained a significant portion of these casualties during the intensified Russian effort to retake Kursk Oblast in February and March 2025. The Western Grouping of Forces, responsible for the Kupyansk, Lyman, and Borova directions, suffered 47,410 casualties. The 1st Guards Tank Army (Moscow Military District [MMD]), primarily active in the Lyman and Kupyansk directions, suffered casualties of 9,987 killed, missing, and captured and 11,411 wounded — the third highest figure among Russia's CAAs fighting in Ukraine — underscoring the intensity of fighting in the Kupyansk and Lyman directions in recent months. The Western Grouping of Forces’ 20th CAA (MMD), active in the Borova and Lyman directions, suffered casualties of 6,410 killed, missing, and captured and 5,712 wounded. The Western Grouping of Forces has failed to seize any of the major settlements in its area of responsibility (AoR) — Kupyansk, Borova, and Lyman — in 2025.
Russian forces also sustained significant casualties in lower priority frontline areas in eastern and southern Ukraine. The Southern Grouping of Forces, active in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area and the Siversk direction, suffered 32,740 casualties, with the 3rd CAA (formerly 2nd Luhansk People's Republic [LNR] AC, Southern Military District [SMD]) around Siversk suffering 13,055 casualties, the highest in the grouping of forces. The Southern Grouping of Forces has made minimal progress since seizing Toretsk in June 2025. The Eastern Grouping of Forces, responsible for eastern Zaporizhia Oblast and the Velykomykhailivka direction, suffered 38,011 casualties, with the 5th CAA (Eastern Military District [EMD]), responsible for Russia's grinding advance toward and into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, suffering 16,980 casualties, the highest in the grouping of forces. The documents indicate that fighting in the Dnepr Grouping of Forces’ AoR, which includes the Kherson direction and western Zaporizhia Oblast, remains relatively desultory amid ongoing Russian efforts to reactivate the frontline in western Zaporizhia Oblast with the Dnieper Grouping of Forces suffering 13,243 casualties.
Russian forces appear able and willing to sustain these casualty rates despite achieving limited tactical advances. A Russian insider source that has consistently provided accurate reports about changes in the Russian military command previously reported that the Russian MoD recruited 292,000 people between January 1 and September 15, 2025 — an average of 31,600 recruits per month.[15] The leaked documents indicate that Russian forces lost an estimated 281,550 casualties between January and August 2025 — an average of 35,193 casualties per month.[16] Russian casualty rates thus far in 2025 appear slightly higher than current monthly Russian recruiting rates, but Russian casualty rates have been decreasing over the last four months. The Russian General Staff may assume that casualty rates will continue to decrease in Ukraine if Russian forces can improve their ability to counter the kill zone, and this reasoning may explain why Russia is reportedly beginning to form a strategic reserve for future deployment.[17] ISW previously assessed that Russian casualty rates marginally decreased and gains became less costly during Summer 2025 compared to Fall 2024 and Spring 2025, likely due in part to Russia's renewed emphasis on using UAVs to interdict Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in rear areas.[18] Russia has proven its ability to recruit enough people to sustain losses in Ukraine over the last three years while possibly beginning to generate a strategic reserve, and the Kremlin is unlikely to abandon or decrease the pace of operations in Ukraine so long as Russia can continue to more than sustain such losses.
European states continue to provide humanitarian and military aid to Ukraine and conclude joint agreements with Ukraine's defense industrial base (DIB). Slovakian Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Robert Kaliňák and Ukrainian Defense Minister Denys Shmyhal stated on October 6 that Slovakia will provide five Božena demining vehicles, engineering vehicles, and medical stretchers as part of Slovakia's 14th aid package to Ukraine.[19] This is the first Slovakian aid package to Ukraine since Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico’s election on October 1, 2023.[20] The Estonian company Milrem Robotics announced on October 7 that it will deliver over 150 THeMIS unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) to Ukraine and that the Netherlands is funding the UGV purchase.[21]
Ukrainian Minister of Strategic Industries Herman Smetanin announced on October 7 that Ukrainian state-owned defense enterprise manager Ukroboronprom concluded cooperation agreements for “float and fly” drone concepts with US-based drone manufacturer LeVanta Tech at the Third International Defense Industry Forum (DFNC3) in Kyiv.[22] Smetanin also announced that Ukroboronprom signed agreements with Spanish defense firm Escribano Mechanical & Engineering related to air defense and armored vehicles.[23] Shmyhal announced on October 6 that Ukraine and Denmark signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) that will enable Ukrainian companies to launch new joint production projects in Denmark, create joint capacities and exchange technologies with Denmark, and attract European Union (EU) funding for joint projects.[24]
The Russian military command reportedly appointed Former Commander of the Russian Force Grouping in Syria Lieutenant General Sergei Kisel as the deputy commander of the Northern Grouping of Forces. A Russian insider source, who has accurately reported on Russian military command changes in the past, reported on October 6 that Kisel became the deputy commander of the Northern Grouping of Forces under the recently appointed Northern Group of Forces Commander Colonel General Yevgeny Nikiforov.[25] The Northern Grouping of Forces currently oversees operations in northern Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts. The insider source reported that Kisel was serving in Syria and organizing the evacuation of Syria's military-political leadership and military personnel after the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime, before returning to the Ukrainian theater. Kisel commanded the 1st Guards Tank Army (GTA, Moscow Military District [MMD]) at the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, but Russian authorities reportedly suspended Kisel in Spring 2022 for his failure to seize Kharkiv City and sent Kisel to serve in Syria.[26] Russian milbloggers claimed in late 2024 that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) removed Kisel as the commander of the Russian Force Grouping in Syria for unspecified reasons.[27]
more + maps https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-7-2025/
Кремлевская табакерка
Belousov wants to send the ashes of the Holy Emperor Nicholas II and other members of the royal family to the front and to protect the refinery
According to our source in the Ministry of Defense, Andrei Belousov had such an idea after a meeting with Vladimir Putin in St. Petersburg. “On his birthday, Vladimir Vladimirovich began a meeting with military leaders in the Peter and Paul Cathedral. And he separately noted: he chose this place, since there is a tomb of people who made modern Russia - our emperors and empresses. Andrei Removich was very deeply impressed by these words, this plan of the president. And he decided that Emperor Nicholas II and the entire holy royal family could help our guys at the front. It's not easy at the front now,” the channel's interlocutor explained.
According to Belousov’s proposal, the ashes of members of the royal family should be taken to different parts of the front and special prayers should be held near them. There is also hope that prayers near the holy remains will be able to strengthen air defense, and it will shoot down more enemy drones and missiles. Especially those that fly through our refineries, causing negative phenomena in the Russian economy. There is an option in which the ashes of one of the members of the royal family or particles of their ashes will be temporarily located at especially important enterprises and facilities that need to be protected from the Kyiv regime. Another reason why Belousov wants to strengthen the front with the help of the royal family, in particular, Emperor Nicholas II, is the president's dissatisfaction with what is happening in the zone of the NWO.
“Vladimir Vladimirovich seems to be tired of just saying that we are advancing, holding the initiative, and so on. He wants to announce the capture of a large city, the liberation of significant territories or an important settlement. We need Victories, not just a constant offensive,” another source in the Ministry of Defense said on this occasion. And he noted that with the help of God and Russian saints, the situation can be changed by the change that everyone needs. The ashes of the members of the royal family will be taken to the front almost certainly. This will be done in the strictest secrecy so that the enemy does not destroy it. As, unfortunately, it happened with part of the relics of St. Matrona of Moscow. At the same time, Putin's opinion on Belousov’s initiative is still unknown. The Minister of Defense will inform the president in the coming days about plans for the ashes of the royal family.
So the ashes that are going to protect the refineries have to be moved in secrecy so they won’t be destroyed?🤔😂
Gott Mit Uns, Russian mir
What have you done with ftrpilot?
Did he get tired of reading your BlueSky posts?
Two high-ranking members of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s inner circle reiterated Putin’s June 2024 non-negotiable demands that any resolution of the war in Ukraine must result in regime change, extensive territorial concessions, and long-term limitations on Ukraine’s military after US Special Envoy for the Middle East Steve Witkoff’s April 11 meeting with Putin. Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) Head Sergey Naryshkin claimed on April 15 that any future peace agreement ending Russia’s invasion of Ukraine must include terms concerning Ukraine’s neutrality; the demilitarization and “denazification” of the Ukrainian state; the abolition of Ukrainian laws that allegedly discriminate against Russian-speakers in Ukraine; and the recognition of Russia’s illegal annexation of all of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts.[1] Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov claimed to Russian state business outlet Kommersant on April 14 that the current Ukrainian government is “unconstitutional” and that Russia “cannot give [Russian speakers living in occupied Ukraine] up” following the illegal and sham referendums Russia conducted in the four oblasts to join Russia in Fall 2022.[2] Lavrov reiterated that Putin “very clearly outlined” Russia’s demands for a future peace agreement to end the war during Putin’s speech on June 14, 2024, and stated that these June 2024 demands were “not some kind of request.” Lavrov stated that there are “no secrets” about Russia’s demands and reiterated the importance of addressing the “root causes” of the war in a future peace agreement.
Russian officials are using Putin’s June 2024 speech as the Kremlin’s current standing guidance on negotiations and the resolution of the war in Ukraine. Putin demanded on June 14, 2024 that Ukrainian forces must “completely withdraw” from Ukrainian-controlled territory in Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts and that Ukraine must officially abandon its goal of joining NATO (by amending its constitution in which that goal is enshrined) before Russia can agree to a future ceasefire and peace negotiations.[3] Putin stated that Russia is prepared to begin negotiations with Ukraine as soon as Ukraine agrees to withdraw from the entirety of the four oblasts. Putin also demanded that the international community recognize the four illegally annexed and occupied oblasts as part of Russia and lift all Western sanctions against Russia in the event of a resolution to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Putin reiterated his calls for Ukraine to agree to full demilitarization and “denazification” and abandon its aspirations to join any external security blocs. These demands would preclude the bilateral security agreements Ukraine has negotiated and is negotiating with several European states.
Putin and other Kremlin officials have routinely issued these same demands, including by using vague language to obfuscate Russia’s most extreme demands.[4] Russian officials, including Putin, use this language to articulate their overarching demand that the West acknowledge Russia’s illegal annexation of occupied Ukraine and force Ukraine to concede not only territory but also its future sovereignty and ability to defend itself. Kremlin officials have consistently demanded that:
Ukraine must demilitarize. Putin named “demilitarization” as one of the main goals of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and stated on July 4, 2024, that Ukraine should undergo “irreversible” “demilitarization” in the event of a future ceasefire.[5] Russia demanded in the April 2022 Istanbul Protocol draft agreement that Ukraine shrink its military beyond pre-2022 levels and commit to never fielding a military capable of defending the country against future Russian aggression.[6] Russia demanded in the protocol that the Ukrainian military should be confined to fewer than 85,000 active-duty personnel, fewer than 15,000 National Guard personnel, and fewer than 1,400 tanks and armored vehicles. The pre-2022 Ukrainian military had 196,600 active-duty personnel, 60,000 National Guard personnel, and over 3,000 tanks and armored vehicles.
Ukraine must “denazify” and install a “legitimate” government. Putin named “denazification” as another of the main goals of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and Russian officials have previously defined “denazification” as the “liquidation of those who instill” Russophobia in other people.[7] Russian officials often invoke the term “denazification” to call for regime change in Ukraine and the installation of a pro-Russian proxy government in Kyiv. Putin has routinely labeled all Ukrainian governments since 2014 as “illegitimate” and claimed on January 28 that Russia will not view any agreements it concludes with the current Ukrainian government as binding.[8]
Ukraine must abandon its aspirations to join NATO or any security bloc in the future. Putin’s demand for Ukraine’s “neutrality” remains one of the central justifications for his full-scale invasion of Ukraine.[9] Russia demanded in the Istanbul Protocol draft agreement that Ukraine amend its constitution to remove the provision committing Ukraine to NATO membership and add a neutrality provision that would ban Ukraine from joining any military alliances, concluding military agreements, or hosting foreign military personnel or systems in Ukraine.[10]
Ukraine must concede occupied Ukrainian territory and “Novorossiya” to Russia. Putin stated on June 14, 2024, that Russia will not be content with ending the war on the lines it currently holds and explicitly called for Ukrainian forces to withdraw from the non-occupied parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia oblasts as a prerequisite for any sort of “peace” negotiations with Ukraine.[11] Kremlin officials have indicated that they have territorial ambitions beyond the administrative borders of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts and often invoke the term “Novorossiya” (an amorphous, invented region in Ukraine that Kremlin officials have claimed includes all of southern and eastern Ukraine and is an “integral” part of Russia) to lay claim to other areas of eastern and southern Ukraine, including Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, and Odesa oblasts.[12]
Any resolution of the war must address the war’s “root causes.” Lavrov has repeatedly defined the “root causes” of the war in Ukraine as NATO’s alleged violation of commitments not to expand into eastern Europe and along Russia’s borders in the 1990s, 2000s, and 2010s and the Ukrainian government’s alleged discrimination against ethnic Russians and Russian language, media, and culture in Ukraine.[13] Russian officials have leveraged claims that Ukraine has mistreated Russian speakers to justify Russia’s occupation and illegal annexation of Ukrainian territory.
Kremlin officials continue to set informational conditions to demand that Ukraine surrender territory that Russia does not currently occupy and to justify Russia’s ambitions of asserting control over independent countries, including NATO member states. Lavrov told Kommersant on April 14 that Russia and the United States have not agreed on any “key parameters” of a potential agreement to end the war in Ukraine.[14] Lavrov stated that Putin’s June 2024 demand that Ukraine cede all of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblast — including the territory that Russia does not currently occupy — continue to serve as the basis of Russia’s negotiating position.[15] Lavrov referred to Russia’s claimed territory in Ukraine as Donbas and Novorossiya. Lavrov claimed that the Ukrainian government “does not represent Crimea, Donbas, or Novorossiya” or “a number of other territories that still remain under the control of [Ukraine.]” Lavrov specifically claimed that the Ukrainian government does not represent residents in Odesa City and that Russia built Odesa City and “many other” cities in Ukraine. Putin recently claimed that “Novorossiya” is an integral part of Russia, and Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov has defined “Novorossiya” as all of eastern and southern Ukraine, including Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, and Odesa oblasts.[16] Putin claimed in 2023 that Odesa City, Crimea, and the entire “Black Sea region” have nothing “to do with Ukraine.”[17] Lavrov’s continued amplification of these claims indicates that Russia aims to occupy even more of Ukraine than the territory that Russia is currently demanding, despite engaging in ongoing negotiations with the United States ostensibly to end the war in Ukraine.
Lavrov also indicated Russia’s desire to seize territory in countries in Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus, and Central Asia — including NATO member states. Lavrov claimed that it is “dangerous” when “fascists seize lands that never belonged to anyone except the Russian Empire [and] Soviet Union” and do “disgusting things there.” Lavrov’s statement indicates that the Kremlin views independent countries once colonized by the Soviet Union and the Russian Empire as rightfully part of modern-day Russia. Moldova and NATO members Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania were part of the Soviet Union and Russian Empire, and NATO member Finland and large parts of NATO member Poland were part of the Russian Empire. Russian Presidential Aide and former Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev recently threatened Finland using narratives resembling those that the Kremlin has used to justify its invasion of Ukraine, and Putin and other Russian officials are attempting to use Russia’s previous colonization efforts to set informational conditions and justify future aggression against NATO states.[18]
Naryshkin threatened a Russian attack against NATO states in response to NATO states building up their defenses in line with US President Donald Trump’s push for Europe to increase its own defense capabilities. Naryshkin claimed on April 15 that NATO states are strengthening their positions on their borders with Belarus and Russia, including Russia’s Kaliningrad Oblast.[19] Naryshkin claimed that Poland and the Baltic states “should understand” that the “first to suffer” in the event of “NATO aggression” against the Union State of Russia and Belarus will be the Polish and Baltic political circles that have spoken about building up their defenses along their borders with Belarus and Kaliningrad Oblast — although Naryshkin claimed that Russia “will certainly” inflict damage on the entire NATO bloc in this event.[20] Naryshkin claimed that European states, such as France, the UK, and Germany, are escalating the war in Ukraine, so Russia “needs to act preemptively” and “is ready for this.”[21] Russian officials, including Putin, repeatedly threatened NATO in 2023 and 2024.[22] Naryshkin appears to be claiming that European efforts to shoulder more of Europe’s own defense requirements and to defend against future Russian aggression — in line with Trump’s calls for such efforts — are allegedly provocative and escalatory.
Considering the lack of truthful information coming out of Russia, this question is most likely unanswerable, but here goes.
We see reports on the damage to the petro industry in Russia, like 40% of refining capacity destroyed/disrupted/ damaged, but how does that break down?
In categories such as effects on refining of different grades and quantities of fuels such as E92,E95, diesel, aviation fuel, and other distillates.
How has the flow of raw crude and natural gas been affected to refineries and export terminals?
Has there been any signs of damage to infrastructure such as wells and pipelines due to reduced or stopped flow of crude through pipelines as a result of these attacks, I.E. freezing of pipelines or wells?
Finally what level of production is necessary to supply Russia with what it needs to operate both civilian and military activities, and therefore the level of disruption necessary to cause a nationwide, and not just local disruptions.
It is obvious that these attacks have caused at least local supply issues, and revenue issues for the govt, but is there a tipping point number where wholesale disruptions occur?
The news only shows the obvious effects; the details are probably not disclosed to them. In this case, we have to use other open sources, which are sufficient in many cases.
Agreed, just like everything coming out of Russia even “official” numbers like inflation, gdp they are not real and more than likely worse than reported.
Anecdotal evidence like gas lines don’t really paint the full picture.
If I were to guess I would say the situation is far worse than we even suspect.
Perhaps they can divide those ashes up a bit more and start producing the Gott Mit Uns belt buckles like their former allies did🤔
In September, seaborne exports of Russian crude varied by only a few percentage points - but prices have been low, the sanctions price cap dropped to $47 from $60, and discounts have steepened on dark fleet shipments. So although revenue took a solid hit, oil export volumes are still flowing. The overall system is backing up however, with storage filling near capacity, and flows to refineries dropping more significantly. Progress continues toward conditions that would force well closures, but I don’t think it has begun yet.
I have not seen any reports yet, of well closures or freeze damage to them, yet. But freezing temperatures only began recently (3rd week in September), at night, in the far North - far from ideal for freeze damage. Next month they will experience consistent sub-zero nighttime temperatures up there, with no daytime thawing. Hard freezing until April.
I expect Ukrainian attacks to continue accumulating further damage to Russia’s refineries and export infrastructure this month (from here on out, really), as freezing conditions worsen, and extend Southward. I expect that Ukrainian planners have analyzed Russia’s oil infrastructure, and developed a deliberate Operational Plan to destroy it, phased to leverage its well known vulnerability to freeze damage.
Different things will break, on their own timelines. We already see regional shortages of gasoline. They will likely try to delay abandoning wells, as long as they can.
Bottom Line: It is a big job, but we remain on track to see long term, Strategic damage to Russia’s oil production capacity this Winter.
Historic damage, with unavoidable social impacts.
Putin should have taken the deal.
This is the result of the incredible and extremely difficult work of the Ukrainian Defense Forces. Glory!
Of course, there still are tanks in the Russian army. But that means that they are “saved” more because they cannot be replaced or are very difficult to replace.
Link to the table with calculations: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FnfGcdqah5Et_6wElhiFfoDxEzxczh7AP2ovjEFV010/edit?gid=0#gid=0
The researchers who update it:
@Jonpy99, @HighMarsed, @waffentraeger, @CovertCabal , @Vishun_military, @Ath3neN0ctu4
Very good summation, at 47 a barrel I would imagine that the net from that is very low, and only option is to pump more oil which will lead to lower prices and even less net profits
Pitin remains a master strategist 😎
By July 2025, foreigners made up 49% of captured Russian fighters, up from 1% in 2022. Serhii Kuzan, chairman of the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Center, told me in an interview, “Without foreign recruitment, Moscow would likely be unable to sustain offensive operations.”
Ukraine's military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov warned that the experience North Korean troops are gaining in Ukraine is transforming their army. “There are currently only three countries in the world with experience fighting a modern war on a long front line using nearly all conventional means – Ukraine, Russia, and North Korea,” Budanov told The Japan Times in August.
“Every foreign unit that rotates through Ukraine is learning how to fight in the world's first large-scale drone war,” Cole said. “That's the danger. It's not just Russia's power, it's the fact that its partners are gaining battlefield skills they can export to other conflicts across Europe, Latin America, and Asia.”
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