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At the moment, it seems clear Russia is winning the Ukraine war, and no matter how many weapons NATO gives, that reality likely won’t change.
Still, others have dreamed up a theory of victory for Ukraine that looks nearly impossible, but, nonetheless, should be considered and debated.
Indeed, while it might not be a popular theory, and it looks like a clear longshot, there is a ‘way’ for Ukraine to win the war against Russia.
In fact, I would argue this is the dream scenario many neoconservatives in Washington these days are praying for.
It involves the total collapse of Putin’s regime due to exhaustion from the war.
And, while it sounds great, it sadly looks unlikely to happen.
The Russia War Exhaustion Theory for Ukraine
According to the theory, Kyiv would regain Crimea and all the lost territory Moscow has conquered since 2014.
What needs to happen is simple, but, at least for now, looks pretty suspect if you ask me.
Russia would need to get so exhausted from the war that its lines collapse.
After losing 1 million casualties, thousands of tanks and artillery pieces, and billions of dollars in bombers and drones, Moscow would one day see its war effort collapse in a mix of exhaustion, anger about the overall direction of the conflict, and a society that had had enough.
This would allow Ukraine to reclaim the initiative and retake large swaths of territory.
But from here, things get even more fictional.
At the same time, the hope is that Russian society would come out en masse against Russian President Putin and dispose of him from power.
The war would be over, Ukraine would be victorious, and democracy would be safely installed in Moscow.
In many respects, some in the West hope that what happened to Imperial Germany in World War I could happen to Putin’s Russia of 2025.
For years, I have heard variations of this sort of thinking. If we give a little more aid, if we provide more tanks, more ATACMS, more missiles, Russia will collapse, and the war will be won.
Russia Has Won the War in Ukraine
While the scenario above seems more like an action movie than reality, breaking down why this ‘collapse’ scenario for Russia in the Ukraine war won’t happen is helpful.
I asked Retired U.S. Army Lt. Col. Daniel L. Davis, a long-time Russia-Ukraine War watcher, for his perspective.
“Yes, I hear stories of the imminent demise of the Russian army all the time; have been since the beginning of the war,” noted Davis.
“In 2022, it was that Biden’s sanctions would “cripple” the Russian economy; their soldiers were unmotivated and morale was low; they were running out of tanks, running out of missiles, were reduced to raiding refrigerators for electronic components to make missiles and using shovels at the front because they didn’t have enough guns. This narrative has never stopped.”
Davis continued, explaining that: “Yet all these claims ignore the realities on the ground in Ukraine, where Russia is on a constant, methodical, if slow advance (yet that pace has been picking up since the beginning of May). On the global economic front, the ‘crippled’ Russian economy grew the last two years at over 4%, while Europe hovers between 0% and 1% growth. Russia has millions more men from whom to draw for soldiers to replenish their losses (and more than offsetting the losses, resulting in a growing force), while Ukraine is unable to offset losses and shrinks by the day.”
He also noted that “[W]hen you add in the industrial capacity of the two sides, Russia continues to advance (as evidenced by this admission from Intel Chief Budanov, where Russia will soon be producing 5,000 long range drones per month Russia Giving North Korea Shahed-136 Attack Drone Production Capability: Budanov) while Ukraine continues to suffer from ‘garage production’ limitations (whereby they have many dislocated small concerns to make ammo and guns and drones, bc big factories get torched like those of the past few days).”
Davis made a bleak prediction that is hard to disagree with: “Manpower, air power, air defense, strategic drone capacity, industrial capacity, and above all manpower, are all irrevocably in Russia’s favor. Defeat for Ukraine cannot be avoided; only delayed.”
About the Author: Harry J. Kazianis
Harry J. Kazianis (@Grecianformula) is a national security expert based in Orlando, Florida. Kazianis was Senior Director of National Security Affairs at the Center for the National Interest (CFTNI), a foreign policy think tank founded by Richard Nixon based in Washington, DC . He also served as Executive Editor of its publishing arm, The National Interest. Harry has over a decade of experience in think tanks and national security publishing. His ideas have been published in the NY Times, Washington Post, Wall Street Journal, CNN, and many other outlets worldwide. He has held positions at CSIS, the Heritage Foundation, the University of Nottingham, and several other institutions related to national security research and studies.
