Posted on 02/24/2024 5:59:01 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here. Loitering munitions, drones used as unmanned bait, civilian vehicles and derelict equipment are not included in this list. All possible effort has gone into avoiding duplicate entries and discerning the status of equipment between captured or abandoned. Many of the entries listed as 'abandoned' will likely end up captured or destroyed. Similarly, some of the captured equipment might be destroyed if it can't be recovered. When a vehicle is captured and then lost in service with its new owners, it is only added as a loss of the original operator to avoid double listings. When the origin of a piece of equipment can't be established, it's not included in the list. The Soviet flag is used when the equipment in question was produced prior to 1991. This list is constantly updated as additional footage becomes available.
(Excerpt) Read more at oryxspioenkop.com ...
According to a U.S. Official, between 50-75 One-Way “Suicide” Drones have been launched by Iran against Israel.
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1779238893365141529
I assume Iran will launch cruise missiles about 2 hours before the drones arrive, and ballistic missiles about 10-15 minutes before. That’s if they actually conduct a large scale strike, which is very high risk. They might also/instead have Hezbollah launch rockets and missiles from Syria and Lebanon.
Stuff be happening.
“Commercial air traffic carnage continues tonight in the Middle East. GPS jamming. Mass diversions. Have not seen anything like it.”
https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1779248805583495320
Situation is devolving rapidly...
- Unconfirmed reports of the launch of a third wave of Iranian attack drones
- Iraqi airspace to close at 00:00 local time, BGW suspending operations
- Israeli airspace to close at 01:00 local time
“A Shahed-variant launched from SW Iran would take 6+ hours to reach central Israel.”
“Some absolute bonkers Israeli GPS jamming underway tonight.
WUK5303 (Wizz Jet flight) jumped from Jordan to the Mediterranean in seconds.”
“Israeli airspace is now closed.”
“Nearly 3,000 kilometers of commercial airspace - including some of the busiest corridors in all of aviation - are now closed.
Egypt, Israel, Jordan, and Iraq. List may grow even larger before morning.”
“The Iranian attack has a name.
IRAN’S REVOLUTIONARY GUARDS SAYS OPERATION ‘TRUE PROMISE’ IS PART OF PUNISHMENT FOR ISRAELI CRIMES’ - IRANIAN STATE TV - Reuters News”
Who will be the BIG loser in Iran’s attack?
RuZZia.
This attack will help push a military aid package through the House this coming week for Ukraine and Israel.
It seems Iran is going with a large scale attack vs “proportional”. Drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles all fired from Iran. Some sources saying a total of 400+. Probably some Hezbollah and Yemeni attacks also.
“Drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles all fired from Iran.”
Not sure about ballistic missiles. Despite many ‘reports’.
“Israeli source: There is no known incident of Iranian ballistic missile launches towards Israel as of this moment. “
Sadly true
Big nothing burger. Brandon’s handlers bribed Israel and Iran not to do anything significant.
“And that’s a rap. For now at least.”
“The Home Front Command has declared that there is no longer a need to stay near bomb shelters throughout the country.”
“Feng Yujun, one of the China’s leading Russianists and a professor at Peking University: Russia is sure to lose in Ukraine – The Economist
Four reasons why Russian Federation will lose to Ukraine, according to Feng Yujun:
🔹 The first is the level of resistance and national unity shown by Ukrainians, which has until now been extraordinary.
🔹 The second is international support for Ukraine, which, though recently falling short of the country’s expectations, remains broad.
🔹 The third factor is the nature of modern warfare, a contest that turns on a combination of industrial might and command, control, communications and intelligence systems. One reason Russia has struggled in this war is that it is yet to recover from the dramatic deindustrialisation it suffered after the disintegration of the Soviet Union.
🔹 The final factor is information. When it comes to decision-making, Vladimir Putin is trapped in an information cocoon, thanks to his having been in power so long. The Russian president and his national-security team lack access to accurate intelligence. The system they operate lacks an efficient mechanism for correcting errors. Their Ukrainian counterparts are more flexible and effective.
His conclusion is as follows:
🔸 Russia will be forced to withdraw from all occupied Ukrainian territories, including Crimea.
🔸 Russia’s nuclear capability is no guarantee of success. Feng Yujun gives the example of the United States, which left Vietnam, Korea, and Afghanistan with no less nuclear potential than the Russian Federation has today.
🔸 Kyiv has proven that Moscow is not invincible, so a ceasefire under the “Korean” scenario is ruled out.
🔸 The war is a turning-point for Russia. It has consigned Putin’s regime to broad international isolation. He has also had to deal with difficult domestic political undercurrents, from the rebellion by the mercenaries of the Wagner Group and other pockets of the military — for instance in Belgorod — to ethnic tensions in several Russian regions and the recent terrorist attack in Moscow. These show that political risk in Russia is very high. Mr Putin may recently have been re-elected, but he faces all kinds of possible black-swan events.
🔸 After the war, Ukraine will have the chance join both the EU and NATO, while Russia will lose its former Soviet republics because they see Putin’s aggression there as a threat to their sovereignty and territorial integrity.
According to Feng Yujun, the war, meanwhile, has made Europe wake up to the enormous threat that Russia’s military aggression poses to the continent’s security and the international order, bringing post-cold-war EU-Russia detente to an end. Many European countries have given up their illusions about Mr Putin’s Russia.”
“Russia is sure to lose in Ukraine – The Economist”
Sometimes we lose sight of that big picture, in the ongoing bloody daily grind, but it really is Putin against the World - and nobody wants to end up living in his brutish orc world.
In addition to the reasons given in that article, here is a fun fact from the Kyiv Independent:
“Drone deliveries to the front lines in Ukraine since the start of 2024 are already three times higher than for all of last year, according to the Deputy Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces Vadym Sukharevskyi...
...Almost every drone supplied is domestically produced...
...President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a decree in February creating a separate branch of Ukraine’s Armed Forces dedicated to drones.
Strategic Industries Deputy Minister Hanna Hvozdiar said that Ukraine has the capacity to produce 150,000 drones every month and may be able to produce 2 million drones by the end of the year.”
“Russia is sure to lose in Ukraine – The Economist”
Sometimes we lose sight of that big picture, in the ongoing bloody daily grind, but it really is Putin against the World - and nobody wants to end up living in his brutish orc world.
In addition to the reasons given in that article, here is a fun fact from the Kyiv Independent:
“Drone deliveries to the front lines in Ukraine since the start of 2024 are already three times higher than for all of last year, according to the Deputy Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces Vadym Sukharevskyi...
...Almost every drone supplied is domestically produced...
...President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a decree in February creating a separate branch of Ukraine’s Armed Forces dedicated to drones.
Strategic Industries Deputy Minister Hanna Hvozdiar said that Ukraine has the capacity to produce 150,000 drones every month and may be able to produce 2 million drones by the end of the year.”
Iran’s Big Show was a flop and an embarrassment. 99% of the drones, ballistic and cruise missiles were shot down, most downed either by US fighter jets or Israeli before they got near Israel.
Meanwhile at home, Iran celebrates its victory.
Will Israel let bygones be bygone or will they show that attacking them has unpleasant consequences?
Reporting From Ukraine:
Note: other versions of this report are found elsewhere on FR, but this is guaranteed to be the complete transcript - unlike the others.
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU/videos
[ Russians lose 106 tanks & AFVs And 1.5km of Ground! ]
—
Day 779: Apr 12
Today, there are a lot of updates from the Liman direction.
Here, Russian forces turned the axis of attack towards Terny into one of the hottest areas in this direction. In recent days, more information has become available, allowing us to draw a clearer picture of the developments in this area over the last weeks.
Terny is one of the key settlements in the area that would allow the Russian forces to cross the Zherebets River in their attempt to advance on the strategically important city of Lyman.
Yesterday, an open-source geolocation organization reported that geolocated footage and satellite imagery indicate that Russian forces lost - presumably both disabled and destroyed - between 102 and 107 armored vehicles in the last four months in the vicinity of Terny alone. The estimates include 26 vehicles in January, 24 in February, and 36 in March.
Recently published videos show a vast vehicle cemetery where dozens of wrecks of all kinds of vehicles, trucks, tanks, and armored infantry vehicles pile up.
The Russian armored vehicles’ wreck map distribution suggests that Russian forces attempted mechanized advances along two parallel axes, making use of existing roads between 2 groves to unload infantry onto these tree lines where they could entrench and establish points of attack on the Ukrainian forces inside Terny.
The clear increase in the number and size of attacks indicates that Russian forces have strongly prioritized this direction and this particular attack vector since the beginning of the year.
However, the reiteration of vectors and tactics has led to this high loss figure. Apart from the primitive and repetitive tactics, there is a whole set of reasons for the Russian failure.
Firstly, in order to assault Terny, Russians were forced to use overstretched supply lines, which made it easier for the Ukrainians to undermine the logistics in the area.
Secondly, the Russians were forced to advance through open fields with very few cover areas, which, combined with the superior Ukrainian reconnaissance capabilities, made it possible to detect Russian assaults at a very early stage.
Thirdly, as we recently discussed, Russian forces did not demonstrate enough improvements in EW capability, and their most prominent attempts led to complete catastrophes.
And finally, the fact that the Russians had to advance along very narrow lines, particularly in its final approach, made it easier for the Ukrainians to concentrate drone fire.
The Russian collapse at Terny basically means the end of the winter-spring offensive in this region since spring rains are imminent and will start very soon. The muddy terrain will make mechanized maneuver warfare completely impossible.
Moreover, the Russian offensive not only collapsed, but recently geolocated footage indicates that Ukrainian forces took the initiative and started a powerful counterattack along both dense tree belts, demolishing the degraded and exhausted remnants of the Russian forces.
The counterattack was also supported by a Ukrainian flank attack from the hills north of the Russian positions in the forest lines, which ended up retreating several kilometers back to the east. Geolocated images show the intensive use of drones in several areas and tree lines near Terny.
Another grove area located about 6 kilometers from the town was heavily targeted by Ukrainian artillery fire, which gives us an idea of how far the Russians were forced to retreat.
Although Russian forces tried to take advantage of Ukrainian material shortages, their efforts were eventually in vain.
To make matters worse for the Russians, Russian forces seemed to adopt very risky tactics for their infantry assaults, which led to extremely high losses in personnel as well. Recently released images show a tank carrying a group of 24 infantrymen on its deck.
The idea behind this tactic is, on the one hand, to be able to advance through more complicated terrain and to be able to carry out a swift infantry landing.
However, even Russian military analysts openly criticized the use of this tactic due to the obvious exposure of the soldiers to Ukrainian drone fire.
Interestingly, another Russian military analyst, however, stated that this tactic is more related to the shortage of armored infantry vehicles in some areas of the front line due to the high number of losses inflicted by the Ukrainian forces.
All this information suggests that Russian forces may have temporarily exhausted their combat capability in this area, and the Ukrainian active defense took advantage of this.
A renowned Ukrainian military observer reported that elements of the Russian 47th Tank Division have almost completed regrouping from the Lyman direction to the Kupiansk direction, adding that these units appear to have established positions southeast of Kupiansk.
Overall, the information that has emerged in the last few days confirms that the Russian forces significantly increased their assault attempts on Terny over the previous four months and that they probably ended up exhausting their combat capability.
Ukrainian forces took advantage of that, carrying out a series of well-coordinated counterattacks, advancing by more than 1.5 kilometers east of Terny.
The need for Russian forces to regroup, coupled with the imminent arrival of spring rains and the subsequent muddy ground, means the de facto end of the Russian winter-spring campaign in this direction.
Kremlin snuff box, 04/13/24
https://t.me/s/kremlin_secrets
Will the Kremlin agree to negotiations with Zelensky?
This week, information has once again appeared that the Turkish President is giving the parties to the conflict the opportunity to come to an agreement. Indeed, Erdogan has handed over to Moscow a new project to end the war in Ukraine.
In general, it can be stated that Erdogan’s ideas are not much different from those in Istanbul, which were discussed by the parties in the spring of 2022.
What is important in this story: Erdogan proposes to freeze the conflict, which, in principle, can suit the Kremlin at this stage.
The non-bloc status of Ukraine is also spelled out, although only for 15 years. It is unlikely that Ukraine will be able to join NATO or create another alliance sooner.
Also, one of the points proposes holding several referendums in 2040. Here the Kremlin sees a trap, since Turkey proposes to hold a referendum, including in territories that are already controlled by Moscow.
This includes talking about Crimea. A number of AP officials suspect that by that time Turkey plans to announce its plans regarding Crimea. Erdogan had previously proposed taking the peninsula under his “temporary control. ”
But the most important point is different. In May 2024, Vladimir Zelensky’s term as President of Ukraine expires. And although in Kyiv they insist on the impossibility of holding elections in war conditions, in Moscow there are completely different emotions about this.
If there is a negotiation project that does not suit the Russian side, the Kremlin will refuse to sign it, pointing to the illegitimacy of Vladimir Zelensky.
In Kyiv, the truth is even more interesting - there, at the legislative level, it is forbidden to sign agreements with Vladimir Putin.
It would seem that the situation has reached a dead end? Not really. It is possible to agree on projects for future negotiations at the level of parliaments or authorized representatives.
Obviously, each of the parties is preparing for the possibility of concluding any agreements, but one should not expect that this will happen very soon.
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