Posted on 02/24/2024 5:59:01 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
7 minutes
5 minutes to launch
Worldcam is broadcasting all Starship flights - the one currently showing is 6
Flight 7 is as I first thought in 95 hours or Monday Jan 13 at 5 p.m. EST
I just watched over 50 minutes of narration of launch, separation of ship and booster, close-up in flight with view of dawning earth edge, and manipulation of guidance flaps. Now another hour to splashdown in the indian ocean, and I am finished for the night.
Russian elites and high-ranking security officials are reportedly frustrated with Russian President Vladimir Putin's efforts to wage a full-scale war in Ukraine with half measures and are increasingly concerned with Putin's timeline to end the war. Sources in the Russian presidential administration, State Duma, and wider Russian federal government and regional governments told Russian opposition media outlet Meduza that Russian elites are increasingly “disappointed” and “tired” of waiting for the war to end and are growing increasingly concerned about the long-term impact of Western sanctions on Russia's economy.[9] Two sources close to the presidential administration noted that the Russian government currently lacks a clear vision for post-war Russia and that an end to the war could be “critical” for the presidential administration if the administration cannot identify a clear narrative and political framework for Russian society after the war. A source in the Russian presidential administration told Meduza that Russian elites, primarily high-ranking security officials, are increasingly frustrated with not having “enough” manpower and materiel to conduct the war and assess that Putin needs to conduct “mobilization” and completely transition Russian society and the Russian economy to a wartime footing.
High-ranking Russian security officials appear to be assessing that Russia needs to intensify its war in Ukraine rather than seek an exit via negotiations. Meduza’s report suggests that Russian security and military officials may recognize that the Russian military is not accomplishing significant territorial gains proportionate to the manpower and materiel losses they are incurring in Ukraine. The Russian military command has, thus far, tolerated taking exorbitant personnel losses in exchange for tactically but not operationally significant advances, and Putin's theory of victory is predicated on accepting such losses so long as Russian forces continue to grind forward in Ukraine.[10] Average daily Russian advances slowed by roughly nine square kilometers in December 2024 after three straight months of increasing territorial gains and personnel losses in September, October, and November 2024, however, and the Russian military command may be less willing than Putin to incur such high casualty rates if Russian forces’ rate of advance continues to slow.[11] Russian security and military officials do not appear prepared to abandon the war as a result of these losses, however, but are reportedly instead advocating for Putin to intensify Russia's war effort by calling for additional partial reserve callups and a formal decision to transition to a wartime footing, likely in hopes of flooding the battlefield with manpower and materiel. ISW continues to assess that Putin is resistant to conducting a partial involuntary reserve callup or further mobilizing the Russian economy, as such decisions would be deeply unpopular among Russians and would further strain Russia's labor shortages and economy.[12] It remains unclear if this group of Russian security and military officials calling for further manpower and economic mobilization will succeed in convincing Putin to take more dramatic measures to meet the Russian military's needs in Ukraine, although mounting personnel losses and increasing challenges in meeting voluntary recruitment targets may cause Putin to conduct an involuntary partial reserve callup in the near future.
Russian elites’ reported diagnosis of the main problem with Russia's conduct of the war is inaccurate, as Russia's failure to restore maneuver to the battlefield — not a shortage of manpower — is the main factor causing Russia's relatively slow rate of advance. Russian elites’ reported focus on mobilizing more Russian personnel indicates that the Russian elites likely view a lack of manpower as Russia's largest constraint to achieving rapid success on the battlefield rather than the ineffectiveness of frontline Russian forces, poor campaign-planning abilities of Russian commanders, and significant armored vehicle shortages that Russian forces are currently suffering.[13] Russian forces have recently demonstrated that they are able to make slow, grinding gains through infantry assaults in the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions, but their inability to conduct rapid, mechanized maneuver has prevented Russian forces from converting these tactical gains into deep penetrations into Ukrainian rear areas.[14]
Both Russian and Ukrainian forces are struggling to restore maneuver to an increasingly transparent battlefield, but the Russian military will also have to address critical shortcomings in its ability to train frontline commanders and plan military operations if Russian forces aspire to conduct the type of rapid, mechanized maneuver that characterized the first few months of the full-scale invasion in early 2022.[15] Ukrainian military officials recently reported that Russian forces are fielding fewer armored vehicles in the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions — the two operational directions with the highest intensity of fighting and where Russia has the densest concentrations of its forces — in favor of highly attritional, infantry-led assaults.[16] Russian forces have suffered high and unsustainable armored vehicle losses and have struggled to protect these vehicles from Ukrainian drones on the frontline over the last year, forcing Russian forces to increasingly limit and prioritize where and when to field armored vehicles and conduct mechanized assaults.[17] Dedicating a significant amount of additional Russian manpower to infantry assaults on critical areas of the frontline would likely allow Russian forces to at least sustain or possibly slightly increase their current pace of advance, but only as fast as Russian infantry can travel on foot — far short of the rapid gains, deep penetrations, and significant battlefield victories that the Russian elites likely desire.
Meduza’s report indicates that Russia's security elite — like Putin himself — is uninterested in a negotiated and peaceful resolution to the war in the near future. Several sources told Meduza that Russian elites were concerned about Putin's ability to extract his territorial demands — the formal recognition of Russian control over the entirety of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia oblasts, including the parts Russia currently does not occupy — in possible future negotiations and are focused on creating an “image of victory” in post-war Russia.[18] This focus on Russian victory in tandem with the elites’ reported desire to intensify the war further indicates that Russian elites support Putin's desire to negotiate only on terms dictated by Russia and to achieve a significant victory to justify the war to Russian society. Putin and other senior Kremlin officials have repeatedly indicated that Russia is unwilling to engage in good-faith negotiations or participate in a meaningful peace negotiation except on terms that amount to Ukraine's full capitulation, and the Russian elite will most likely continue to support Putin's demands over engaging in meaningful negotiations.[19]
more + maps https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-9-2025
The analysis by the American Enterprise Institute said the ultimate success of President Vladimir Putin's invasion would change the face of Europe and embolden Russia to threaten members of the NATO military alliance.
The $808 billion increase, according to the report, would be required for the US to help deter, and if necessary defeat, a non-nuclear Russian attack beyond Ukraine. That amount would alter the Defense Department's current five-year plan through 2029 to $5.2 trillion from $4.4 trillion, or about $165 billion more annually than planned for those years. That plan focuses heavily on Asia.
Dollars and Sense: America's Interest in a Ukrainian Victory
Supporting Ukraine to victory against Russia is in the best interest of the United States.
A world in which Russia prevails would be more dangerous and more expensive for America—requiring an estimated increase of $808 billion in defense spending over five years.
Alternatively, an increased and accelerated multinational commitment to Ukraine and conclusion of the war in the near term would result in a vibrant and free Ukraine with a newly modernized and battle-tested military and a thriving industrial base, which would help stabilize Europe.
Stability in Europe may also improve conditions in the Middle East and Pacific as the Axis of Aggression sees a resolute alliance that is both willing and capable of using a wide range of deterrence options combined with decisive, rapid response to contingencies.
https://x.com/front_ukrainian/status/1877272510091165957
45 sec video
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AN/PSQ-42
Excellent for figthing orcs
Olaf Scholz blocked a new military aid package for Kiev worth 3 billion euros, promoted by Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius - Der Spiegel pic.twitter.com/yUgGPMQxSs— Sprinter Observer (@SprinterObserve) January 10, 2025
Olaf Scholz blocked €3B Ukraine aid proposal, German report says
‼️NEWSFLASH: Zelensky has declared that the EU needs to kick authoritarian Hungary out, so that democratic Ukraine could take her place in the union. pic.twitter.com/o933LyxpUb— Olga Bazova (@OlgaBazova) January 10, 2025
May I steal this picture?? 🤣🤣😂
🍈 has early case of diarrhea lol
Excellent - a warm up for Monday’s Flight 7. One of 24 more this year hopefully.
🍈 has early case of diarrhea
—
🍈’s friends love his diarrhea & are even taking some for their personal use. One has to wonder ...
Biden Puts Forward Final Ukraine Military Aid Package of His Administration
Ukraine Situation Report: Plans for future aid to Kyiv were also unveiled, but all that could change with the new U.S. administrations.
https://www.twz.com/news-features/biden-puts-forward-final-ukraine-military-aid-package-of-his-administration
—
Why Greenland is of Growing Strategic Significance
Donald Trump seems more insistent than ever on controlling Greenland, but regardless of his controversial intentions, the island is of real strategic importance
https://www.twz.com/news-features/why-greenland-is-of-growing-strategic-significance
Russian’s New Combat Icebreaker Starts Sea Trials
Armed with a gun and the capacity to carry cruise missiles, the Ivan Papanin is designed to break ice and launch kinetic attacks.
https://www.twz.com/news-features/russians-new-combat-icebreaker-starts-sea-trials
These are probably going there as well
Sparta II https://www.vesselfinder.com/?imo=9160994
General Skobelev https://www.vesselfinder.com/?imo=9503304
but now:
The Russian ship Sparta, which is used to transport military equipment, has been unable to enter the Syrian port of Tartus for more than five days. This may indicate that the ship has not received permission to enter the port from the new Syrian authorities.
Therefore, the only way to evacuate Russian military and equipment from Syria is through the Hmeymim airbase, where Russian Defense Ministry planes regularly arrive.
Currently, the fate of Russian military bases in the Syrian Arab Republic remains unknown. Russia is negotiating with the new Syrian government on this issue.
The scale of the evacuation of the Russian contingent from the country may indicate that it will either be completely withdrawn from Syria or remain in very limited numbers.
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/new-syrian-authorities-do-not-allow-russian-ship-to-enter-tartus/
This could be related
Russia announced in mid-December that it would suspend wheat exports to Damascus, estimated at 1.5 million tonnes a year. The decision was a result of uncertainties about payments after Russia's ally, Bashar Al Assad gave up the Syrian presidency and fled to Moscow after an insurgent takeover.
Last week, Ukraine signalled its readiness to re-engage with Damascus diplomatically, announcing a donation of 500 tonnes of wheat flour, which started arriving on New Year's Day. The UN's World Food Programme issued a video on Tuesday saying food assistance was much needed in a country where one million more people had joined the 7.2 million internally displaced in the November-December period.
Kyiv hopes that the shipment will be followed by many others through its Black Sea Grain Initiative. Mr Zelenskyy wrote on social media that Ukraine hopes to send oil, sugar and meat deliveries. Ukraine cut ties with Syria in June 2022, when the government recognised the independence of the Russia-occupied territories in Ukraine's Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
Russia can only export death and destruction
“This may indicate that the ship has not received permission to enter the port from the new Syrian authorities”
If you are going to break relations with Russia, it would be more profitable to keep their stuff.
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