Attack On Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine (2 year anniversary)

ORYX ^ | Since February 24, 2022 and daily | ORYX

[SpeedyInTexas]

This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here. Loitering munitions, drones used as unmanned bait, civilian vehicles and derelict equipment are not included in this list. All possible effort has gone into avoiding duplicate entries and discerning the status of equipment between captured or abandoned. Many of the entries listed as 'abandoned' will likely end up captured or destroyed. Similarly, some of the captured equipment might be destroyed if it can't be recovered. When a vehicle is captured and then lost in service with its new owners, it is only added as a loss of the original operator to avoid double listings. When the origin of a piece of equipment can't be established, it's not included in the list. The Soviet flag is used when the equipment in question was produced prior to 1991. This list is constantly updated as additional footage becomes available.

[Owen]

You might want to put some time into understanding that Gazprom is 75% of Russian gas production.

25% comes from Novatek, Lukoil, Rosneft.

And you might also want to understand that Gazprom has a share of production of gas from non Russian wells.

Stop with the pieces of printed paper. It will always confuse. Russian gas production is down 14%.

[BeauBo]

“Russian gas production is down”

What is that, like half of the former exports? Or more than half?

Russian export revenue is down. And that is in ruble terms, before even accounting for the drop in the value of the ruble.

Development investment in future Russian production capacity has zeroed out. Full stop to all projects in the Kara and Barents Sea (they say that they are all “paused” for the next four years). Arctic 2 LNG has shut down production, with no restart date. Full stop.

[blitz128]

Good info, color me skeptical on numbers reported by Russia and Russian companies

[Owen]

The Kara sea has oil. And probably some gas too, but that’s an oil plan.

Barents endowment is somewhat uncertain.

The Kara Sea is a tough climate. Nothing was going to happen there for quite some time.

As for exports, of gas, they appear to be down 14% from pre Covid levels. Europe’s consumption was sent to China and India, both of whom have coal but are phasing out.

Look, here is the only thing you need to think about.

Scarcity. Global consumption matches global production. There is no surplus because the storage is in the fields underground. But given the concept of scarcity, when one essentially large consumer decides it will no longer get gas from one provider, and wants to go to someone else, then whoever that someone else was providing previously get screwed.

There is no infinite supply. Capacity doesn’t hugely exceed consumption. If you want to consume and decide Not From Him, then you have to get it elsewhere — and that elsewhere was already supplying someone else.

US production can’t make this up. There is only 14ish years of total left underground. Qatar? Iran? They already have customers.

[BeauBo]

"US production can’t make this up." (Replacement of Russian production)

US Export capacity is set to roughly double over the course of Trump's coming term, just based on already funded and approved projects. (About another 100 bcm per year - about the same as both NordStream Pipeline's full capacity)

The big North field in Qatar is well along its development, and has new supply contracts from Europeans. A lot is happening in Algeria. Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan would like to contribute more, but must get through Russia, or Russian influenced Georgia. Further down the tubes, but coming along strongly is Argentina's Vaca Muerte shale, that just raised a heap of investment. Meanwhile, Russia's gas production in the challenging high Arctic, is starved of investment, sanctioned and targeted in the war.

[Owen]

That all has projected customers. Mostly contracted.

And note it hasn’t flowed yet.

Argentina is the most intriguing of everywhere in the Vaca Muerta. It’s shale. It is frackable (and never ever forget, artificial permeability from fracking dies quickly. The well is horizontal, the production decline curve is vertical).

That gas is destined for Latin America. Not Europe. There are no LNG production plants on the Argentine coast. Their plan is pipelines north. Beyond that, rule of thumb, 0.5 tons of LNG is 1 cubic meter. The new planned LNG production in Argentina is to be offshore and 2.5 million metric tons PER YEAR capable, so call that 1.25 million cubic meters. Per year. Million. Not billion. Small potatoes. No, Argentina is not Europe’s salvation.

Maybe the most ominous issue in Europe is France having shut down their reactors because of internal pipeline damage. Cumulative neutron bombardment. France electricity used to be 70% nuclear and they are shutting off reactors. Replacement? Nat gas.

Natgas production will increase. So will its non European consumption. There is no magic. The math is the math.

[Mr. Lucky]

"...before even accounting for the drop in thd value of the ruble."

The Ruble is stronk. Only 113.74 to the Dollar today.

[BeauBo]

“That all has projected customers. Mostly contracted.”

Many of the customers are European. 2/3 according to one report I saw.

“And note it hasn’t flowed yet.

The new Venture Global export facility in Plaquemines, Louisiana, among the largest in the world (36 trains when complete, in about year), sent out its first cargo last week, aboard one of their new fleet of very large LNG ships (the second of eight they are building). That cargo is heading to Germany.

The replacement for Russian gas through the Druzhba Pipeline has already begun as well:

The first shipment of American LNG to replace it, has already arrived. (https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Ukraine-Gets-Its-First-US-LNG-Cargo-via-Greek-Terminal.html)

“Ukraine has taken delivery of its first U.S. LNG cargo at a Greek terminal as Ukraine and Europe look to bolster their energy security by reducing their dependence on Russian gas, Ukraine’s largest private energy company, DTEK, said on Friday.

The delivery of approximately 100 million cubic meters of gas, or 1 TWh of energy, onboard the Gaslog Savannah arrived at the Revithoussa LNG terminal in Greece on Friday morning (27 December 2024). D.TRADING, DTEK’s pan-European trading subsidiary, has purchased the entire cargo.

Working with Greek and other partners, the LNG will now be re-gasified and exchanged through European Union and Ukrainian gas networks, the Ukrainian company said.”

They had a year’s advance notice of the shutoff, to contract replacement deliveries.

[blitz128]

Certain usual( 🍈) sure is obsessed with speedy. Kind of sad

[Owen]

Do you understand these magnitudes? 100 million cubic meters is nothing.

Greece 2023 consumption of nat gas was 5.4 BILLION cubic meters. The text says it will be spread around the rest of Europe.

GO GET THE SPREADSHEET. You are deluding yourself and it’s needless. The data in pure form is right there.

Pre Covid Europe’s consumption of natgas was 572 BILLION cubic meters for the year 2021. Last year, with a mild winter, but more relevant . . . reduced GDP and self denial of supply . . . the consumption was 463 BILLION cubic meters.

That’s reality. Celebrating a 100 million cubic meter shipment is just insane.

If you had the spreadsheet you would see that the Netherlands is, or was, a source of natgas. They produced 70 billion cubic meters in 2013 timeframe. Then it started to die, combination of Green stuff and geology. Last year, 10 billion cubic meters.

Norway last year 116 billion cubic meters. Pretty flat. The North Sea has been pumping almost 40 yrs. It’s a struggle to keep finding new pockets.

Do you see the numbers now? Consumption 463B cubic meters. Domestic output about 200B. Shortfall 263B.

You don’t make that up with 100 million cubic meter shipments. From anywhere.

What you CAN do is accept destruction of GDP so there are no factories to heat or power with electricity.

Oil and gas are everything. There is nothing anyone can do about this.

[BeauBo]

“Do you understand these magnitudes?” (Europe’s consumption of natgas was 572 BILLION cubic meters for the year 2021)

Yes, of course. It is straight forward arithmetic. (in 2021, the EU imported 155 BCM of Russian gas)

Do you imagine that the Governments of Europe and the United States, and all the oil majors, cannot do this arithmetic?

Even over the timeframe of years, that this conflict has endured? With literally trillions of euros of assets at their disposal?

In 2022, the EU established their plan to replace all Russian oil, gas and coal imports by 2027 (24 months from now). They did the math, and agreed on budget and schedule. They have committed many billions of euros to it, and are well ahead of schedule.

They have installed new LNG import capacity equal to twice the total volume of natural gas (pipeline + LNG) that they previously imported from Russia, before the war. That is done. Pipelines to connect those many new FSRUs at their docks to Europe’s pipeline networks and storage facilities are complete, and operational.

Contracts have been signed and payment made to other suppliers to deliver product on schedule to meet their expected demand. It is done. It was largely done last Winter, when the great bulk of Russia’s lost pipeline gas had already ceased. Their storage is brimming full. Prices are way down from their 2022 highs.

Don’t confuse yourself with theoretical numbers on paper - the replacement is already mostly done, in the real world, and was last year. Druzhba was just a few percentage points more of the total - about 1/3 of what was left, or 1/10th of what Europe imported from Russia before the war.

There is just one line of TurkStream continuing to operate to Europe (to Hungary, through Bulgaria and Romania) with a capacity of 15.75 bcma. The only other TurkStream line carries an equal 15.75 bcma capacity for the Turkish market.

Beyond that, only LNG cargoes remain for Russia to export gas to Europe (about 20 bcma worth in 2024). Those are expected to be banned this year.

[BeauBo]

“color me skeptical on numbers reported by Russia and Russian companies”

No way they could possibly just add up the numbers and report them publicly, without shaving them substantially to support the Kremlin information operations.

It is a matter of trying to estimate how much we should discount what they report.

[BeauBo]

Out with the most Anti-Ukraine President, and in with the most Pro-Ukraine President for the EU. Expect EU accession to be accelerated further.

Kyiv Independent reports:

“Poland has assumed its six-month presidency of the Council of the European Union on Jan. 1.

Poland takes over the presidency from Hungary, one of Russia’s closest allies in Europe, which has repeatedly blocked EU aid to Ukraine...

...”We will do everything to ensure that Europe’s security is a reality, not just an aspiration. I hope Poland will lead efforts that result in peace,” Tusk said.

Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said on X that Ukraine relies on “Polish leadership, principled stance, and determination.” Sybiha expressed hope for new initiatives to provide military assistance to Ukraine and for a swift EU accession process.

“We aim for a dynamic process of Ukraine’s EU accession, including the opening of Cluster 1 and other clusters based on the results of the screening process,” the minister added.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky previously said that the 2025 presidency of Poland and Denmark, some of Ukraine’s staunchest supporters, will be “historic for Ukraine.”...

...Two EU accession clusters for Ukraine are expected to open during the first half of 2025 under Poland’s presidency of the EU Council, a high-ranking EU official told the Kyiv Independent on Dec. 18.

The EU’s Commissioner for Enlargement, Oliver Varhelyi, said that Ukraine could potentially join the bloc by 2029 if it successfully implements necessary reforms.

Ukraine was granted EU candidate status in June 2022, with the European Council approving the launch of accession talks in December 2023.”

[AdmSmith]

[AdmSmith]

Кремлевская табакерка : Gazprom CEO Scolds SVO [war in Ukraine] and Wants It to End Soon

Alexey Miller made a harsh statement on December 31. The reason is the termination of our gas transit through Ukraine. “The damned SVO, I wish it would end soon. Otherwise, our losses will be critical,” a source who witnessed this conversation quoted the Gazprom CEO as saying. Miller suddenly stopped short after his words and asked the participants in the conversation to make sure that his words did not reach Vladimir Putin.

Sorry, Alexey Borisovich, we are not going to keep such information a secret. And you should have thought about how to avoid losses. We are very upset that you did not do this.

https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/5115

[AdmSmith]

Кремлевская табакерка : Putin was called upon to urgently take Kiev. Otherwise, “we will never drive Satan out of there.”

The American flag that appeared on the Kiev Motherland Monument during Volodymyr Zelensky’s New Year's address means that “Satan and his worshipers live” in the capital of Ukraine (for now). Vladimir Putin needs to urgently send troops to take Kiev.

Philosopher Alexander Dugin said this in a conversation with us. “Everyone has seen this horror – the American flag on the Russian symbol in the center of Kiev. American Satanists and their Ukrainian lackeys have lost their conscience. I have already said that we simply need to take Kiev to show the West our strength. Now I want to declare: Kiev must be taken in the next few months. Otherwise, Satan will take root there completely, and it will be too late, we will never drive him out,” Alexander Gelyevich is sure. Our remark that the army is unlikely to have enough resources for such a large-scale military operation at the moment provoked Dugin’s anger. “I've told you a hundred times - both to you and to the authorities. There is a pressing need for a total mobilization. Several million people should be enough to take not only Kiev. What are we waiting for? What are we afraid of? Why are we hoping for Trump or anyone else? Such actions are starting to smell of betrayal!” - the philosopher said.

According to our sources in the Kremlin, Dugin asked to be connected with the president personally, but Vladimir Vladimirovich's schedule has not yet found time for this. After this, Alexander Gelyevich decided to convey his appeal through our channel. We decided not to refuse him.

https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/5114

[AdmSmith]

A Su-25M1 BLUE47 from the 299th Tactical Aviation Brigade dropping AASM Hammer bombs on Russian positions in the Kostyantynivka direction.
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3leoh74enxs2y
1 min video

AASM Hammer (”Hammer” standing for “Highly Agile Modular Munition Extended Range” )
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armement_Air-Sol_Modulaire

[AdmSmith]

Kapustin Yar, known for the launch site of Russia's Oreshnik ballistic missile is under Ukrainian drone attacks.

https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3lepi77n2m226

~700km from Kharkiv

Kapustin Yar (Russian: Капустин Яр) is a Russian military training area and a rocket launch complex in Astrakhan Oblast, about 100 km east of Volgograd.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kapustin_Yar

[AdmSmith]

Amid the suspension of Russian gas supplies via Ukraine, Leonore Gewessler, Austria's Minister for Climate and Energy, has announced that her country is no longer reliant on Russian gas, adding, “and that's a good thing”.

The transit of Russian gas through Ukraine was halted on the night of 31 December 2024-1 January 2025, following the expiration of the transit contract.

Austria's Energy Ministry emphasised that this decision had been announced well in advance. To ensure a continuous and reliable gas supply, market participants turned to alternative sources, successfully compensating for the loss of Russian gas and securing supply stability. “Domestic energy companies shifted to alternative, non-Russian suppliers. OMV, for instance, ended its long-standing cooperation with Russia's Gazprom. Austria is no longer reliant on Russian gas – and that's a positive step,” Gewessler added.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/01/1/7491604/

[AdmSmith]

The British Embassy in Ukraine announced on January 1st that 200 Ukrainian aviators had successfully completed basic training for operating F-16 fighter jets in the United Kingdom.

The embassy highlighted that the training included basic flight, ground operations, and language skills. “Royal Air Force instructors provided training in general aircraft control, instrument flight, low-altitude navigation, and flying in complex formations,” the statement added.

https://united24media.com/latest-news/200-ukrainian-pilots-complete-f-16-training-in-the-uk-4832