Attack On Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine (2 year anniversary)

ORYX ^ | Since February 24, 2022 and daily | ORYX

[SpeedyInTexas]

This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here. Loitering munitions, drones used as unmanned bait, civilian vehicles and derelict equipment are not included in this list. All possible effort has gone into avoiding duplicate entries and discerning the status of equipment between captured or abandoned. Many of the entries listed as 'abandoned' will likely end up captured or destroyed. Similarly, some of the captured equipment might be destroyed if it can't be recovered. When a vehicle is captured and then lost in service with its new owners, it is only added as a loss of the original operator to avoid double listings. When the origin of a piece of equipment can't be established, it's not included in the list. The Soviet flag is used when the equipment in question was produced prior to 1991. This list is constantly updated as additional footage becomes available.

[BeauBo]

“Meanwhile, Finland, Sweden and Norway are making massive investments in modern equipment.”

Poland too, as we have discussed previously. Germany has continued ramping up. Even France seems to be waking from its slumber.

Putin continues stimulate increases in Western Defense spending, that continue to accumulate longer term effects on the balance of power.

Russia might be getting more punched out this year, as their storage yards and coffers hit new lows. They are running huge deficits in their Conventional Military forces, due to their profligate attrition rates. Those deficits can’t go on forever, and a massive wave of Ukrainian drones has been funded for this year, which is likely to inflict new rates of attrition.

[BeauBo]

Russian forces in Transnistria are surrounded.

Kyiv Independent reports:

Drone reportedly attacks military base in Russian-occupied Transnistria

“An attack drone reportedly struck a military base in Transnistria, a breakaway region in Moldova, local proxy authorities claimed on April 5.

The drone allegedly attacked a military facility in the Rybnitsa district, six kilometers from the Ukrainian state border, as of 2:35 p.m. local time.

The radar station, which was slightly damaged, was the alleged target, the proxies claimed.

No casualties were reported.

Another case of a drone attack on Transnistria’s military base was reported on March 17 in Tiraspol.

Local news channel “Pervyi Prydnestrovskyi” also published a video allegedly showing a helicopter being hit by a drone.

Moldova’s Bureau of Reintegration disputed prior claims, saying that the “military technology in the images has not been functional for several years.”

Transnistria borders Ukraine’s Odesa Oblast and is internationally recognized as part of Moldova.

Russian troops have been stationed in Transnistria since the early 1990s when Russia invaded the region under the pretext of protecting ethnic Russians.”

[SpeedyInTexas]

CBS: “The U.S. has picked up intelligence that Iran is planning a retaliatory attack that would include a swarm of Shaheed loitering drones and cruise missiles. Officials say the timing and target are unknown, but a proportional response to the Damascus attack would be to hit an Israeli diplomatic facility. The attack is likely to come between now and the end of Ramadan next week.”

[BeauBo]

“establishment of a special tribunal to investigate and prosecute Russian crimes” (sounds like the Hague, by the end of this year)

Kyiv Independent reports:

“An international special tribunal to hold Russia accountable for war crimes committed in Ukraine may be created by the end of this year, European Commissioner for Justice Didier Reynders told Deutsche Welle.

Ukrainian officials have documented thousands of war crimes committed by Russian forces, including deliberate attacks on civilians, attacks on cultural sites or medical institutions, torture, and deportations.

The Prosecutor General’s Office reported on March 18 that Ukraine had collected pretrial information on over 128,000 victims of war crimes.

A political declaration, published by the Restoring Justice for Ukraine conference on April 2 and signed by 44 countries, condemns Russian aggression in Ukraine and advocates for the establishment of a special tribunal to investigate and prosecute Russian crimes.

“We are discussing this tribunal with various international actors,” Reynders said in a comment for Deutsche Welle on the sidelines of the conference, which was held in the Netherlands.

Ukraine’s fight to bring Russian leadership to justice puts legal systems to ultimate test

“Two main options are now being considered — an international tribunal based on a multilateral agreement or a simplified solution based on a bilateral agreement between Ukraine and the Council of Europe.”

Reynders believes that the creation of the tribunal is at the last stage, according to Deutsche Welle’s article published on April 5.

“The next step is a matter of political will. Now is just the beginning of the year, and by the end of the year, this should become possible,” he said.

The declaration also called on Russia to pay compensatory damages for crimes inflicted on Ukrainians and supported exploring the use of frozen Russian assets to pay these damages.

According to the document, the Netherlands extended conditional offers to host both the tribunal and a compensation mechanism.” (Sounds like The Hague)

[ETCM]

With the withdrawal of US troops, Russia occupied in Ukraine, and Iran/Hezbollah busy with Israel, ISIS is rising from the dead in Syria.

https://twitter.com/Charles_Lister/status/1776355062870135271

[marcusmaximus]

Two Tu-95s from Engels just launched cruise missiles towards Ukraine. Only two bombers instead of the typical 6 to 10 bombers.

[ETCM]

Maybe the damage was worse than the 2-3 damaged/destroyed TU-95’s reported. Or more likely, they are dispersing them further away to avoid more losses. Fewer aircraft, longer missions, more hours on the remaining air frames. We wore out a lot of air frames in Iraq and Afghanistan, but we produce fighter/bombers at about 10X the rate of Russia.

[marcusmaximus]

Reports that the Tu-95 missiles were all intercepted. But there were Kalibr launches from the Black Sea. First time Kalibrs have been used in months.

[BeauBo]

“Two Tu-95s from Engels... instead of the typical 6 to 10 bombers.”

Maybe that Bomber Unit is busy - all tasked out with Next of Kin Notification duties, and funeral details.

Maybe the front will see a similar sudden drop in glide bomb sorties, from the strike on Morozovsk.

Release the drones!

[BeauBo]

“First time Kalibrs have been used in months.”

Sounds like somebody is bucking for a drone swarm down there...

[BeauBo]

“With the withdrawal of US troops, Russia occupied in Ukraine, and Iran/Hezbollah busy with Israel, ISIS is rising from the dead in Syria.”

Al Queda and Turkey might take advantage of the vacuum as well.

[BeauBo]

“First time Kalibrs have been used in months.”

The nail that gets hammered, is the one that sticks its head up.

Two million drones programmed for Ukraine in 2024. Lets sink some those Kalibr launchers.

[blitz128]

Would be interesting to see what the real status of the Russian Air Force is. Joe many MC aircraft they have, what is maintenance status like, hours on airframes and engines, and qualified pilots.

You can keep aircraft flying with half measures for just so long

Between bombing missions, CAP, and losses stress on Russias Air Force would seem high

Add more capable AD and situation could get critical pretty fast. It all happens slowly till it doesn’t comes to mino

[PIF]

Reporting From Ukraine:
Note: other versions of this report are found elsewhere on FR, but this is guaranteed to be the complete transcript - unlike the others.
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU

[ New Threat of the Biggest Russian Offensive (Kharkiv) ]
—
Day 772: Apr 05

Today, there is a lot of news from the Kharkiv direction.

In recent days, rumors have flourished everywhere about an alleged Russian plan intended to capture the city of Kharkiv in a potential new spring-summer Russian offensive.

In addition to Vladimir Putin’s statements about a sanitary zone, some senior Russian officials anonymously reported further details of a possible plan for an encirclement operation in Kharkiv, aimed to capture the city without destroying it, employing a contingent of 300 thousand Russian troops.

As an additional indicator, Ukrainian authorities recently reported that Russian forces have begun to strike Kharkiv with a new type of guided bomb called UMPB D-30, which is a glide bomb evolution with improved characteristics.

Each munition consists of a unified module with folding wings, a guidance unit, a jam-resistant satellite receiver, and a rocket booster or turbojet in the tail that would give it an estimated combat range of 90km.

These improvements bring them closer in accuracy and maneuverability characteristics to a cruise missile at a fraction of the cost. Ukrainian authorities have described the reported use of this new glide bomb over civilian population areas as an attempt to terrorize the civilian population.

Ukrainian authorities and military analysts have stated that, for the moment, there are not enough indications about the creation of such a large force that could be aimed at encircling the city.

And the various statements and actions seem more like information operations in an attempt to destabilize Ukrainian authorities, to force the commitment of additional resources in this direction, as well as to create disruption among the civilian population.

First of all, various Ukrainian analysts evaluated that even a force of 300 thousand troops would probably be insufficient to attack and encircle Kharkiv, and they estimated that Russian forces would need at least half a million soldiers.

Kharkiv, with a population of almost a million and a half people, is Ukraine’s second-largest city, which means that the city is home to many more high-rise buildings, factories, and industrial zones that can be used as powerful fortifications.

For context, it took Russians 80,000 troops and 10 months to take Bakhmut. Kharkiv is 10 times bigger than Bakhmut by size and 20 times bigger than Bakhmut by population and the number of high-rise buildings.

Interestingly, the estimated figure of half a million soldiers is, in fact, higher than what Russia currently has deployed along the entire front length.

Secondly, even assuming a possible additional mobilization in Russia, preparing this new force and its logistics for early spring or summer seems unrealistic.

A very relevant Ukrainian military analyst has detailed how Russian forces might approach an advance on Kharkiv.

Firstly, an advance from the west would have to necessarily face two crucial defensive nodes, Okhtyrka and Bogodukhov, which belong to the Kotelva-Valky line.

In addition, a great number of new defensive lines have been built throughout the whole Kharkiv oblast in recent months.

Secondly, the allegedly Russian plan explicitly indicates an encirclement of the city, and the reason for that is that Russian would like to avoid much harder urban fighting, particularly in such an extensive city.

A Kharkiv encirclement would only be realistic if the Russian forces managed to advance further west of the Oskil River and at least reach the Chuguev-Pervomaisky line, an objective they have been unable to achieve so far, despite countless attempts to advance in the direction of Kupiansk.

As I analyzed in a previous video, an advance from the northern part of Kupiansk is quite challenging due to the funnel formed by the Siversky-Donets and Oskil rivers, which in practice forces an attack to face two solid defensive lines in succession.

Finally, another critical challenge for the Kremlin would be securing the southern flank of such a potential offensive.

As an alternative, Russian forces could adopt a third vector precisely from the south only if they could reach Izyum beforehand.

From Izyum, they could both compromise Ukrainian resistance east of the Oskil River and advance toward Kharkiv from the south. However, the prospects of seizing Izyum seem unrealistic to accomplish in the short or medium term.

However, the prospects of seizing Izyum seem unrealistic to accomplish in the short or medium term.

Similarly, the Institute for the Study of War states that a Russian operation to encircle Kharkiv would be highly ambitious, requiring long advances across open terrain, unseen since the full-scale invasion began.

The Institute Study of War analysts believe that if Russia launches an offensive in late spring-summer 2024, it will likely focus on another direction, most probably to the western Donetsk region.

Overall, Ukrainian analysts and militaries, including their Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi, advocate not to overreact to the situation while continuing with preparations for any circumstance that may occur in the medium or long term.

As of today, there are no facts and developments on the front line that could trigger an advance toward Kharkiv in the short term. On the other hand, the rumors and Russian-sourced articles aim to create uncertainty among the civilian population and undermine international support for Ukraine.

Let’s hope the months of preparation of the Ukrainian forces in the whole Kharkiv region will allow them to face any Russian offensive threat in the future with full assurance.

[PIF]

Some reports indicated that many pilots were killed, so there could be planes, but no on to fly them.

[PIF]

Kremlin snuff box
A nervous dog thwarted an attack on Ukrainian positions near Avdiivka

An unusual and extremely tragic incident occurred near Avdeevka. A local dog showed interest in a group of FPV drone pilots. They planned to launch drones at the positions of Ukrainian militants.

The dog suddenly began to actively bark and literally rushed at the drone pilots. They say one of the pilots was bitten.

In general, interlocutors say that the dog did not just disrupt the drone attack. A local dog attracted the attention of the pilots. Their positions were covered, which led to the death of one of the pilots.

local dog

[PIF]

Kremlin snuff box
https://t.me/s/kremlin_secrets

Window of opportunity for Russia. What to expect from the coming summer and will it be possible to break through the front?

In paramilitary circles, much is traditionally expected from the spring-summer military campaign. Weather conditions favor the offensive, and accumulated resources are thrown onto the battlefield to ensure results.

Over the past week, we talked with several high-status interlocutors and found out their expectations for the upcoming summer.

Firstly, the Russian Armed Forces are indeed preparing new formations for an offensive this summer. The direction of the impact has not yet been determined, but several directions are being considered. At the same time, military sources emphasize that the current tactics of attacking in very small groups along the entire front line are yielding results.

The front is moving, the enemy is suffering losses. Yes, we have them too, but given the use of drones, it is very difficult to use armored vehicles or other approaches to break through enemy defense lines.

Secondly, mobilization. Will. Necessary. All interlocutors agreed that the issue of mobilization has been resolved; it remains to determine the volume and timing. This decision is up to the President. Demobilization is promised, but not for everyone, and they have not yet openly said when this is possible.

Thirdly, diplomatic and intelligence sources claim that a window of opportunity is now open for our country.

“Many people think that Trump will come and cut aid to Ukraine. But this is not entirely true. Now a lot is expected from Europe. Look at the Czechs - they got a million shells for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. This is slightly less than we received from North Korea. Serious negotiations are underway there”, says our interlocutor.

Another source was careful to note that a Trump victory could affect the course of the CBO in different ways. “Of course, Trump is not Biden. But at least we know what to expect from Biden.

“It’s difficult to say what will happen to Trump. Maybe he will decide to declare war on Iran. Then we will have to intervene in the conflict. Or, at a minimum, we will lose the missile supplier, drones and shells,” says an interlocutor associated with the purchase of weapons for the Russian Armed Forces on gray markets.

The interlocutors note the enemy’s problems with mobilization. They emphasize that by the end of summer there is a chance to quickly mobilize people and break through the front. This will be more difficult to do in winter.

[PIF]

Kremlin snuff box
https://t.me/s/kremlin_secrets

Will the commander of the Aerospace Forces be fired?

After a night attack on our airfields, the commander of the Aerospace Forces, Colonel-General Viktor Afzalov, was summoned to the president with a report. Sources are divided on whether Afzalov will be dismissed or not.

According to our information, the general’s report is scheduled for this evening.

Last night alone we lost up to 9 aircraft. In general, aviation losses in the Northern Military District zone and in the conventional rear areas are beyond the acceptable limits, interlocutors say.

[FtrPilot]

Scorecard from last night:

Overnight, Ukraine was attacked by a mix of drones and missiles. A total of 31 targets were destroyed.

Shot down:
28/32 Shahed drones
0/3 S-300 ballistic missiles
2/2 Kh-101/555 cruise missiles
1/1 Kalibr cruise missile

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1776480342888591789

[PIF]

Scorecard from yesterday: