Reporting From Ukraine:
Note: other versions of this report are found elsewhere on FR, but this is guaranteed to be the complete transcript - unlike the others.
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU
[ Five Cocky Russian Pilots vs. Patriot Air Defense ]
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Day 726: Feb 19
Today, there are a lot of different updates from the Orikhiv and Avdiivka directions.
First of all, when it comes to the Orikhiv direction, here Russian forces conducted several sudden waves of attacks toward the only settlement inside the bridgehead.
The Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces stated that Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian attack consisting of “a fairly large number of personnel” with about 30 tanks and armored fighting vehicles, which corresponds with numerous Russian claims that Russian forces renewed offensives in this region.
Based on the geolocated footage, Russian forces extensively used cluster munitions to prepare for storming and passing the tree lines and then sent one assault unit after another.
Ukrainians targeted the assault units with drones and anti-tank guided missiles, which made the Russian attacks extremely disorderly, with the units breaking down into multiple parts, where each part did whatever it wanted - some decided to run away, some immediately tried to seek shelter from the Ukrainian fire, others continued the suicidal assault alone.
What made the situation for Russians even worse was that they got 80-year-old T-55 tanks with poor anti-drone protection and weak hull and turret armor. Russian military analysts tried to reframe this embarrassing offensive as a reconnaissance-in-force operation, however, this is not true.
Based on the number of forces engaged and the fact that these attacks were suddenly conducted once the front line in Avdiivka collapsed, means that Russians tried to take advantage of the possible lack of readiness of Ukrainian soldiers.
Still, some Russian sources declared success too soon and claimed that Russian soldiers entered the village.
Simultaneously, other Russian sources started urging to take that information because those Russians that entered the outskirts were there not because they breached the defense, but because they were lucky enough to find shelter and survive after the disastrous attack.
Such posts just encouraged Ukrainians to go and check the outskirts. And they were right because shortly after that, Ukrainians released multiple videos of surrendering Russian soldiers.
When it comes to the Avdiivka direction, the recent Ukrainian withdrawal gave Russian forces a huge boost in morale, and they started attacking the next Ukrainian defense line in the region.
The main Ukrainian defense line is located on the other side of the river, and for now, Ukrainian forces are still uncertain whether there is any sense in holding defense in these four settlements. Russian forces are trying to take advantage of that and break through Ukrainian defenses using small infantry groups for assaults.
The Ukrainian command previously committed fresh units to the Avdiivka front to counterattack advancing Russian forces and provide an evacuation corridor for Ukrainian units withdrawing from Avdiivka.
According to the Institute for the Study of War, these newly committed units are likely able to establish and hold defensive positions against Russian forces, degraded by their assaults on the town.
They noted that it is normal practice to bring in reinforcements to function as a receiving force that can allow withdrawing units to reconstitute behind prepared defensive positions.
The Institute for the Study of War also noted that available imagery, which they refused to present or describe in greater detail at this time to preserve Ukrainian operational security, indicates that Ukrainian forces prepared good defensive positions west of Avdiivka.
In an attempt to maintain the momentum, Russian forces started using air-dropped bombs in the same way they used them inside the town.
During the Battle for Avdiivka, Russian forces appear to have temporarily established limited and localized air superiority and were able to provide ground troops with close air support during the final days of their offensive operation, likely the first time that Russian forces have done so in Ukraine.
However, as the front line shifted westward, the Russian fighter-bombers necessarily needed to get up to ten kilometers closer to the contact line to reach the next defense line.
Unfortunately for the Russians, this was a fatal mistake, as Russians suddenly started losing their aviation in large numbers.
Two days ago Ukrainian forces reportedly shot down three Russian fighter aircraft, two SU-34s and one SU-35s, at first Russian sources tried to deny these claims.
However the Ukrainian Air Force Commander posted satellite data confirming the locations of the down planes.
Today the Ukrainian Air Force shot down two more fighter bombers, bringing the total number of destroyed jets to five.
This time there was no speculation about the destruction of the Jets as local residents managed to capture on camera the last moments of their flight. The Ukrainian Air Force Commander once again posted satellite data confirming the destruction of the planes.
What is interesting in is that the Russian Ministry of Defense, in a refusal to admit that Western air defense systems are capable of intercepting their jets, wrote of these five events as friendly fire accidents.
Even Russian sources started raising the question of whether there had been suspiciously a bit too much friendly fire lately.
Some military analysts concluded that Ukrainians brought in more air defense systems into the region to cover the withdrawal, while others claimed that Russians failed to account for the fact that the frontline shifted and without driving the Ukrainian air defense deeper into the region, it was a very bad idea to get so much closer to the contact line.
In any case, regardless of whether Russian forces can reestablish localized air superiority in the short term, the Russian infantry will continue to push in an attempt to collapse the area in front of Avdiivka and push Ukrainians behind the river.
The key question is what will happen next will the front line collapse even further?
What is the next target of of the Russian offensive operation?
Can Russian forces launch this offensive immediately, and where can Ukrainians stop the Russian advancement and kill the momentum?
It clearly explains that the aircraft shoot-downs were a trap.
UKF forward deployed Patriots to cover the withdrawal from Avdiivka
In a display of ruzzian stupidity, they tried to launch FAB glide bombs on the new Ukrainian front lines, flying 10km further west & into range of the Patriots.
It only took 6 lost fighter aircraft for ruzzia to learn their mistake.
It strains belief that Russia's IADS is so poorly configured, organized and manned that they continuously shoot down their own aircraft so far behind enemy lines. If they do this in nearly uncontested airspace, imagine what would happen with enemy aircraft, stealth fighters, decoys, massive EW, and SEAD/DEAD missions.
Of course, the alternative is also bad. The ability of their most modern aircraft to defeat western air defense systems is critical to foreign sales, and foreign sales are critical to domestic production funding. The SU-30/34/35 are all marketed/sold with a tailored version of Russia's newest "Khibiny" EW system that claims to be able to defeat everything the west has, and specifically, Patriot. But Mil-Aviation experts mostly dismiss the system as outdated and ineffective against modern systems like Patriot, AMRAAM, IRIS-T, etc.