“As to avdiivka, the town is destroyed”
It has been under Artillery attack for months, and recently had 60 air strikes in a day, as well as bombardment by TOS-1 thermobaric artillery. It is probably another settlement that has been pounded beyond where it is likely to be rebuilt.
“incremental gains at huge costs will continue.”
That has been a growing trend for Russia through this war, for the reasons you cite, and the inexorable attrition of the old Soviet arsenal, that Speedy established this thread to track. (Speedy, come home. Post an anniversary thread or something).
They keep wearing deeper through their stockages, fleets and financial reserves, and continually keep increasing their burn rate of human casualties - an average increase of 300 more casualties per day over the course of 2023, according to British Intelligence.
That can’t go on forever. Those trends inevitably must reach breaking points.
Reporting From Ukraine:
Note: other versions of this report are found elsewhere on FR, but this is guaranteed to be the complete transcript - unlike the others.
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU
[ Ukrainian Forces Break Through The Encirclement ]
==
Day 723: Feb 16
Today, there are a lot of updates from the Avdiivka direction.
After Ukrainian reinforcements arrived in Avdiivka, many military analysts anticipated a rapid counterattack.
The first scenario was a massive flank attack that was meant to slice off the Russian vanguard, the second scenario was to force Russians to overstretch their forces along the contact line, and the last one was the unblocking operation combined with a withdrawal.
The Ukrainian High Command evaluated the situation and refused to conduct large-scale counteroffensive operations for four main reasons.
The first reason was the conservation of manpower, as a deep penetration would require risking the lives of thousands of soldiers.
The second reason was the lack of artillery shells - Ukrainians did not even have enough shells to hold the defense, so conducting a large-scale flank offensive would cost a lot of lives.
[ US House GOP caused this loss by withholding funds for military aid by trying to change an Administration Policy - something they had absolutely no chance of achieving. Vladimir thanked them for this gift on the eve of his re-election. ]
The third reason was the fact that Russians have reinforced the Avdiivka Group.
If you still remember, at the start of the offensive operation four months ago in October, Russians allocated 40,000 troops.
According to the Tavriisk Group of Forces Spokesman, Russian forces relocated 10s of 1000s of troops from other directions to sustain the offensive operation, and right now, Russian forces have about 50,000 troops here.
The last reason is the weather conditions. Attacking from the north or even along the entire contact line would mean fighting in the fields, which have become increasingly hard to cross. That is why the Ukrainian High Command decided to conduct an unblocking operation combined with a withdrawal.
The decision was not received positively by the Ukrainian soldiers who were hoping to save Avdiivka, as many of them had fought here since day one, however, it was still the right decision.
The first step of the operation involved a massive counterattack in the central part of Avdiivka.
As I alluded to in my previous report, the newly arrived Ukrainian fighters from the third assault brigade attacked Russian forces south of the railways with Max-Pro armored vehicles with machine guns and temporarily pushed Russians back by around 150 meters.
By taking upon themselves the Russian vanguard, Ukrainians alleviated the pressure on many critical zones and started the process of withdrawal.
The first group of Ukrainian forces that received the order to withdraw was the one that held defense at the water filtration station. As you can see, they were very far from the main Ukrainian positions and were facing attacks from three sides.
Before the Ukrainian High Command decided to withdraw, it was beneficial for Ukrainians to hold such positions because they stretched the front line and made it harder for Russians to advance.
The second group of Ukrainians to withdraw was the one holding an extensive trench network in the vineyards.
The last two groups to withdraw were holding virtually an all-round defense on the former air defense base and fortifications under the bridge.
The situation here was extremely dire, the order to withdraw was given too late, so Ukrainians incurred losses during withdrawal and had to leave 6 wounded soldiers on the base. Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Commander admitted that several Ukrainians were taken captive.
According to some Russian sources, there are 2,000 Ukrainians in the southern part, while according to others, there are up to 3,000 troops. Russian analysts also claimed that up to 30% of Ukrainian forces have already been evacuated.
Russian sources claimed that, in total, there are no more than 8,000 Ukrainians in the Avdiivka direction. Given that there are 50,000 Russians in the same area, Russians outnumber Ukrainians 6 to 1.
After the Ukrainian reinforcements conducted a successful counterattack, the Russians intensified their assaults even more. A Ukrainian fighter from the 24th Battalion reported that Russians now use assault groups consisting of up to 50 soldiers, which they have not seen even during the peak heat of the Battle for Bakhmut.
This, combined with the devastating Russian artillery and airstrikes, allowed Russians to regain control over the highway and even move beyond it into the fields. The main goals of the Russian forces are to move towards the village of Lastochkine and the second supply road to completely cut off Ukrainian forces.
According to the latest updates, Ukrainian fighters from the third assault brigade assumed their positions in Lastochkine and conducted a number of drone strikes, followed up with counterattacks.
The fighters reported that they also destroyed a huge Russian column north of Avdiivka, which saved Lastochkine and gave Ukrainians up to three days of relative freedom of movement. This was confirmed in the latest report of prominent Russian analysts, which stated that Ukrainian supply lines were not cut off, and Ukrainians continued to move through the gully.
The Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Spokesman also confirmed that Ukrainian forces currently maintain multiple supply routes into Avdiivka. The Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Commander stated that his main goal right now is to continue conducting a successful withdrawal to the previously prepared defensive positions.
Ukrainians have built another defense line right behind Avdiivka, and in my latest strategic update, I have looked into all four lines of fortification west of Avdiivka. I analyzed how Ukrainians are leveraging the local geography of the region to create even more problems for the Russians and why it is impossible to achieve rapid, deep penetration in this region.
Kremlin snuff box
https://t.me/s/kremlin_secrets
We lost two planes, and Putin set a new task. What’s happening around Avdeevka
Two important news appeared related to the capture of Avdiivka by our troops .
Firstly, we lost two aircraft over the territory of the DPR - Su-34 and Su-35. We deliberately did not publish this information for a long time, as we carefully checked it.
The enemy reported that he had shot down three of our planes, military officers reported the loss of one Su-35. According to our data, two planes were shot down. Two pilots were killed, one managed to escape.
“With the advance in Avdiivka, we became a little closer to enemy air defense systems. We can now lose planes more often. We understand the problem and are doing everything necessary to solve it, but for now it’s like this,” our source at the VKS said about this.
The loss of two aircraft was also confirmed by the General Staff and the Ministry of Defense.
Secondly, Vladimir Putin sets the military the task of taking control of the entire territory of the DPR by March 10-15. “The task has not yet been set strictly, but Vladimir Vladimirovich told the military these dates and said that he wants to travel throughout the DPR either immediately after the elections, or even before them.
“Vladimir Vladimirovich believes that after Avdiivka we are capable of any task. The president was in a good mood after receiving the report on the success in Avdiivka,” a Kremlin source said.
The military confirmed this information. And they hope that Putin will change his mind.
“To take the entire DPR even before the end of spring is a very difficult task that requires terrible sacrifices. I hope Vladimir Vladimirovich will change his mind,” a high-ranking source in the Ministry of Defense told us.
At the same time, he hopes that the new tasks will be a significant reason for Sergei Shoigu to convince Vladimir Putin to abandon partial demobilization. A conversation between the Minister of Defense and the President on this topic should take place in the coming days.