Previous day’s thread: https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/4213198/posts
Summarizing this war:
A tragedy for Ukraine.
A disaster for RuZZia.
A strategic win for the USA.
“Why Internet Trolls Do What They Do and How to Spot Russian Fakes”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dLtBzvw0—0
“Here is the best-kept secret about U.S. military aid to Ukraine: Most of the money is being spent here in the United States. That’s right: Funds that lawmakers approve to arm Ukraine are not going directly to Ukraine but being used stateside to build new weapons or to replace weapons sent to replace weapons sent to Kyiv from U.S. stockpiles. Of the $68 billion in military and related assistance Congress has approved since Russia invaded Ukraine, almost 90 percent is going to Americans, one analysis found.”
https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1730119780873441750
https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1751279886679896493
More information on the Victor.
https://www.technology.org/2023/06/06/victor-anti-aircraft-system-not-just-another-gun/
Assuming the optics include night vision, the Victor would be very effective against iranian drones.
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1751239481737220190
Very interesting.
The warheads could be returned to the ruzzians by "Baba Yaga" octocopter drones.
Following Pskov and Novgorod regions, 4G mobile Internet will be unavailable at night in Leningrad region. The authorities promise to limit the night Internet in these regions from January 25 to January 30. Operators explain the temporary lack of communication by reconfiguration of broadcasting frequencies, but their representatives refuse from detailed comments to journalists.
Most likely, the Internet blackouts are connected with the first attack of Ukrainian drones on Leningrad region since the beginning of the full-scale war. On January 18, 2024, UAVs attacked the St. Petersburg Oil Terminal, and on January 21 they successfully hit Novatek's terminal in the port of Ust-Luga. At the moment, St. Petersburg is the farthest point reached by the AFU drones. Earlier, ASTRA reported that residents of Leningrad region noticed the deployment of S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems in the region.
Translation of the SMS message:
"Please note: for reasons beyond Tele2's control, until 31.01.24, mobile Internet may not be available at night. Note also that the restrictions may negatively affect the operation of usual online services, ATMs and payment terminals."
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1751246412778455142
Russia's Leningrad region announced nighttime mobile Internet shutdowns until January 31st.
They must be expecting more attacks and don't want the peasants posting videos.
https://twitter.com/ninagol15/status/1751078864410005765
Kremlin snuff box
https://t.me/s/kremlin_secrets
Is it true that the United States is persuading Kyiv to give up Russian-controlled territories?
Articles are increasingly appearing in the Western press about how Russia and the United States see a way out of the Ukrainian impasse.
In particular, The Washington Post writes that the United States is preparing a new strategy for Ukraine, which will not provide for the return of the DPR, LPR and Russian-controlled territories of the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions.
In reality, everything is much more complicated than it seems. Firstly , the United States is in a state of imbalance due to the events around Texas. The Presidential election adds spice to this situation, since Moscow is actually openly betting on Trump, who will be the main rival of the current president.
Secondly , the US political position regarding Ukraine has not changed - the Americans understand that bleeding Russia at the hands of Ukrainians is not the worst idea.
Plus, for the Americans themselves it costs a pittance and does not cost the deaths of their citizens. In this regard, only an absolutely naive person can believe that the United States will refuse to support Ukraine.
At the same time, there is a point - not only the United States, but the West as a whole, is ready to consider a model for freezing the conflict in the current territories. Kyiv is against this, but the Russian side is also making a lot of efforts to disrupt these negotiations. In particular, pressure to take control of new territories could put even attempts at these agreements in jeopardy.
According to our information, Scholz and Biden plan to discuss assistance to Ukraine at their next meeting to maintain their current positions. And, logically, the size of this assistance depends on Russian pressure.
Sources hint that stabilizing the situation at the front can help reduce the flow of weapons to Ukraine, but increasing pressure and attempts to break through the front, on the contrary, will increase the likelihood of a revision of those same supplies.
On January 25, 2024, a strike was carried out on a 🇷🇺 Russian military training ground near the city of Ilovaisk with the help of M142 «HIMARS» MLRS, where an examination of FPV drone operators of the Sudoplatov project was taking place.
It was not only a training base, but also as a warehouse for FPV drones.
So, according to new information:
🔥| 40 soldiers were killed, 2 civilian project instructors (previously reported 24 dead);
🤕| 20 soldiers were wounded;
https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1751598213235159357
https://twitter.com/Inside_the_AFU/status/1751563549715951702
All because of problems with payment - the Indian side refuses to pay for oil in dollars for fear of falling under US sanctions.
They offer to pay in rupees, which the Russian side no longer agrees to.
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1751184722519044171
I thought BRICS was supposed to fix the currency exchange problem.
Ruzzia must have more rupees than they need.
The details of the assistance package have not been disclosed, but it is known from open sources that the country is armed with Tor, Osa, S-300 air defense systems, ZU-23-2, anti-aircraft missile launchers and ammunition for them.
https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1751559153787506858
ZU 23-2 is highly effective against iranian drones. Here's a pic:
https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1751509447275319357
The Russian President Vladimir Putin has instructed Gazprom to proceed to the pre-investment phase for the ‘Power of Siberia 2’ pipeline. Supplies via this route may total up to 50 billion cubic meters per year (bcm/y), with the gas set to be brought to western China.
Pre-investment phase!
Work might start in 10 years.
I will make this real simple. Ukraine does not have the ability to implement the War on the Rocks prescription. First, manpower. Even Ukrainian sources are conceding that Ukraine has suffered more than a million casualties. The average age of the frontline troops is 43. For the math challenged out there (this clearly applies to Kofman, Lee and Massicot), if the average age is 43 that means you have a large number of 50 and 60 year old cannon fodder manning the trenches and bunkers. The under 40 crowd is not flocking to the recruiting office in Kiev to sign up. Just the opposite. They are going to extreme lengths to avoid being dragooned into the army. We’ve seen guys wearing disguises that make them look like 70 year old men and others dressing as women. Not because they are transgender but because the Ukrainian recruiters are not grabbing women off the street and throwing them on to the military bus.
Let’s assume that Ukraine can somehow find an additional 500,000 potential soldiers. (They will need at least that many to keep up with Russia who added that number to their armed forces in 2023 and continue to sign up new recruits at the rate of more than 40,000 a month.) Where are they going to train? Russia’s missile strikes during the past month have hit some major troop locations. For example, the strike in Kharkiv last week wiped out a 200 man contingent of foreign mercenaries. Russia can and will hit every training center in Ukraine, which means the new Ukie recruits will have to be sent to bases in Europe.
We have clear evidence based on the Ukrainian failure in the 2023 counter-offensive of how inadequate that training was. And the training I am talking about is Basic Training. Decent Basic Training takes 13 weeks. Do the math — even if Ukraine can marshall 20,000 new recruits a month and run them through Basic Training, Ukraine would only have 160,000 troops trained in rudimentary skills by the end of the year. Ukraine failed to do that during 2023. What miracle drug will they be taking that allows them to train three to four times the number of troops they assembled for the failed counter offensive? The vast majority of the Ukrainian troops sent to attack the Surovikin lines of defense did not receive Advanced Individual Training nor did they participate in large unit exercises. Knowing how to shoot, clean and maintain a fire arm in combat conditions is a good thing. But that does not automatically translate into how to conduct an assault on heavily defended positions. And don’t tell me the Brits and Germans can handle that training task. Hell, the U.K. cannot even meet its own recruitment needs. The Brits are a puny, inexperienced force lacking in knowledge of how to carry out a combined forces attack against the Russians. Ditto for the Germans. The Wehrmacht is kaput.
The War on the Rocks clown show pays lip service to Ukraine’s need for air defense, artillery, artillery rounds, tanks and armored vehicles, but ignores the real world. No country in the West has the ability to produce these items and send them to Ukraine in the quantities required to sustain a force in the field for the foreseeable future. The authors are particularly lost in La La Land when they talk about Ukraine being able to launch long-range missiles to hit critical infrastructure in Russia. There is no other country in the world with an air defense system like Russia’s. Moreover, if such attacks are launched Russia has the ability to launch successful counter strikes to eliminate those threats.
Where the hell is the West going to come up with a thousand tanks and armored personnel carriers? There are no factories in the West churning these out. To the contrary, the West is struggling to produce 155 mm shells. All of the War on the Rocks “analysis” rests on the assumption that the West’s only concern is Ukraine. That dog won’t hunt anymore. Israel, Yemen, Iran and China are becoming greater priorities than Ukraine.
Finally, let’s assume that Ukraine is able to muster a new army of cannon fodder to attack Russia’s heavily defended lines? Where is the Ukrainian air power? It does not exist and will not exist. If the United States is able to deploy a few F-16s to Ukraine, they will meet the same fate that Ukraine’s now non-existent air force met. They will be shot down.
Finnish Presidential election goes to a runoff, to be held on 11 February.
Both remaining candidates, Stubb and Haavisto, are supporters of Ukraine and have called for tough measures against Russia.
Sweden’s accession to NATO, signed, sealed and delivered.
Daily Sabah (Turkish) reports (28 Jan 2024):
“Türkiye sends Sweden NATO accession protocol to Washington”
“Ankara on Saturday sent the formal accession protocol that states Sweden’s membership to NATO is approved by Türkiye to U.S. authorities in Washington, according to official sources.
After more than a year of delays, Parliament ratified Sweden’s bid on Tuesday and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan signed the formal accession protocol on Thursday.”
Orban receives orders from his puppet masters.
—
Kremlin snuff box
https://t.me/s/kremlin_secrets
Orban received an angry call from Moscow regarding a meeting with Zelensky
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban plans to hold a meeting with Vladimir Zelensky in the near future. And this causes a clearly negative reaction in the Kremlin. According to our information, the night before, the head of the SVR Naryshkin made a call to Budapest.
According to our information, Naryshkin spoke directly with Orban. The Hungarian Prime Minister received a clear understanding of the consequences of his meeting with Zelensky.
It is worth noting that on Monday there was a meeting between the foreign ministers of Ukraine and Hungary, at which the upcoming meeting of the countries’ leaders was allegedly discussed.
Naryshkin confirmed to Orban that Hungary will not receive at least 3 billion euros from Russia this year. Moreover, there may be problems with gas supplies and their costs.
Orban was confused, but replied that he was trying to drag out the meeting as long as possible. He is also under pressure from his EU and NATO partners.
It is worth noting that we wrote about the preparations for the meeting between Orban and Zelensky back in early January. Then the information leaked through diplomatic channels, but the Hungarian Prime Minister himself was in no hurry to share it with Moscow.
GLSDBs arriving tomorrow!
Surely that will cheer you up!
“Politico, citing four sources, reported that the Pentagon has successfully tested a new high-precision long-range Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bombs (GLSDBs), which could arrive in Ukraine on Wednesday, 31 January.”
China on the precipice:
Hong Kong court declares China’s biggest property developer bankrupt (Evergrande).
The War Zone reports that the Moscovians are using their supply of (SSC-1B Sepal) 3M44 Progress anti-ship missiles in Ukraine
Test fire
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XOTB6FU6ia8&feature=emb_imp_woyt
“(Reuters) - Hungarian opposition parties submitted a motion on Monday calling for an extraordinary session of parliament on Feb. 5 to ratify Sweden’s application to join NATO...
...But parliamentary speaker Laszlo Kover said there was no urgency for any extraordinary move to ratify Sweden’s NATO accession and suggested that opposition attempts at an extra session would be likely to fail.”
Back in normal session at the end of February.
Algeria has been a big winner from Putin sacrificing Russia’s market share for natural gas/LNG - especially in terms of the percentage increase over its former sales. Boom town.
OilPrice .com reports on what used to be Russia’s market share for natural gas:
Europe’s Largest LNG Terminal Signs 10-Year Deal for Algerian Natural Gas.
“The UK’s Grain LNG, Europe’s largest liquefied natural gas terminal, signed on Wednesday a ten-year agreement that will extend the long-term storage and redelivery capacity of Algerian gas company Sonatrach at the Grain LNG terminal from January 2029.
Grain LNG, located on the Isle of Grain in Kent, is the biggest such terminal in Europe and the eighth largest in the world by tank capacity with a site that spans more than 600 acres in total.
National Grid’s Grain LNG is considered of strategic national importance to UK energy infrastructure and security of supply...
...Grain LNG is currently being expanded to store and deliver enough gas to meet up to 33% of UK gas demand.
The UK has recently seen a significant rise in LNG imports as Europe has diversified its LNG sources.
Elsewhere in Europe, Italy’s energy major Eni has been increasingly betting on Africa (Algeria) to import large volumes of pipeline gas and LNG to replace pipeline gas supply from Russia, which was Europe’s top gas supplier before the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Eni has been particularly active in securing more natural gas supply for Europe from Africa and has fast-tracked projects in Africa to meet Europe’s gas demand in the absence of Russian pipeline deliveries.”
