https://twitter.com/Azovsouth/status/1759552576146616534
The Kerch bridge needs to be destroyed.
Posted on 01/28/2024 7:12:54 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
https://twitter.com/Azovsouth/status/1759552576146616534
The Kerch bridge needs to be destroyed.
What a horrible meatgrinder.
Putin deserves to burn in Hell for inflicting so much, on so many.
Putin has been encouraged to accelerate pouring more of his Military assets into the fire.
The whole thing may be a Strategic trap, to manipulate him into demilitarizing Russia.
It is a frenzy of destruction.
Kremlin snuff box
https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/3625
“We wanted it like in Avdiivka.” We received tragic news from the Zaporozhye region
Our army suffered serious losses during the offensive in the Rabotino area in the Zaporozhye region. The military who are on this section of the front talk about the command’s miscalculations and ask for action to be taken.
“Somewhere at the top, they probably thought it would turn out like in Avdiivka. We attack the enemy, and he will bend and run. As a result, a lot of guys were sent to certain death.
The enemy here turned out to be very well prepared for our attacks. According to my data, more than 100 people died yesterday and today (Saturday-Sunday, February 17-18 - ed.),” an officer who was sent to storm Ukrainian positions near Rabotino told us.
Another military man accuses the command that the offensive attempts were carried out without taking into account the peculiarities of this section of the front.
“I don’t know who gave such an order - Shoigu, Gerasimov, someone else. But it couldn’t be like that. I know you have connections, please influence the generals there or someone in the Kremlin,” he asked.
The General Staff confirmed to us the problems in the Zaporozhye region, but they hope that they will be resolved soon. We will not publish all the information about what is happening on this section of the front - so as not to please the enemy and not give him sensitive data.
We must only say that the losses of our troops incurred during the one and a half day assault ranged from 80 to 130 people killed and about 200 wounded.
Happy memory to those who died. We will monitor events on this sector of the front. We also promise to use all our connections to ensure that such a tragedy does not happen again.
We need victories. But we also need an army! Therefore, we could not hide the tragic news of the losses. I hope we are heard, and the competent authorities and people will take action.
—
Kremlin snuff box
https://t.me/kremlin_secrets
More than 100 of our military personnel have died in the Zaporozhye region in recent days
According to updated data from two sources in the General Staff, after the start of active operations and assaults on Ukrainian positions in the Rabotino region of the Zaporozhye region, 109 military personnel were killed. About 300 were injured.
This was the information as of 10 am on Monday, February 19. Now, we are afraid, there are more victims.
The fighting continues, blessed memory to our military.
At the same time, we will not disclose data on losses in Avdiivka, which sources also reported, so as not to please the enemy. We believe that these sacrifices were not in vain, we mourn for every soldier who died.
Kremlin snuff box
https://t.me/s/kremlin_secrets
We lost two more planes. The reason, frankly, horrified us
On Monday, February 19, our Su-34 and Su-35 were shot down in the air defense zone. All three pilots, unfortunately, died.
We confirm the information of a number of military officers - the planes were shot down as a result of “friendly fire” from our air defense. Moreover, the reason why such fire was opened is very serious.
“The planes were shot down from the S-300 system, the crew of which was in a drunken state. One of the air defense soldiers had a birthday, and he decided to celebrate it with his colleagues.
“Right in the morning and at the combat post. We drank too much, and the result was such a tragedy,” a source in the VKS told us.
And the interlocutor at the General Staff noted that all the soldiers who committed faults had already been interrogated. Perhaps a decision will be made to arrest them.
To be honest, at first we didn’t believe what happened. Now, having received confirmation of this information from several sources, we simply hope that there will be no more similar emergencies at the front.
Some guesswork:
The Su-34s are launching the ruzzian glide bombs from max range at high altitude & high speed.
The Su-35s are providing close escort to engage any Ukrainian fighters.
The ruzzian pilots are flying the same flight path day after day.
The Patriot radars can track the ruzzian aircraft without triggering the aircraft's Radar Warning Receivers (RWR).
Ruzzian jammers are ineffective against the Patriots.
Ruzzian pilots get no launch warning, on-board or off-board.
Once the Patriot missile acquires the target aircraft (goes active) it's over.
Once all Patriot missiles go active, the Patriot launcher(s) pack up and heads west.
I find this impossible to believe.
Perhaps a decision will be made to arrest them.
True or false, I would not want to be the S-300 operator.
Either way, Moscovia is losing a lot of very expensive planes. These losses have picked up quit a bit since 2022 - mid 2023. Maybe attrition will become like the KH-52s.
Moscovia is in the early stages of losing its AF.
“Moscovia is in the early stages of losing its AF.”
...and then come the F-16s.
OilPrice.com reports:
“Russia’s oil refinery rates have slumped this month by 380,000 barrels per day (bpd) compared to December levels as several refineries are under repairs after being hit by Ukrainian drone attacks...
...Russia’s daily crude oil processing dropped by 4% in the first half of February compared to the first half of January, and by 8.6% versus the first half of February 2023, data from Reuters’ sources and calculations showed last week...
...Ukraine’s security services have been hitting with drones Russian refineries, especially those in southern Russia, in attacks that have intensified since the beginning of the year...
The Ukrainian attacks and the damages they caused to Russian refineries have reduced Russia’s capability to process crude, which has the potential to raise crude volumes shipped out of Russia but has decreased diesel and other product exports.
The lower supply of middle distillates, which include diesel, from Russia has been tightening the global product market in recent weeks, on top of trade flow shifts as tankers avoid the Red Sea/Suez Canal route due to the Houthi attacks on commercial vessels.”
Kyiv Independent reports:
“The White House is prepared to send Ukraine long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS)
...if Congress approves a new funding package, NBC News reported on Feb. 19, citing unnamed U.S. officials.
After months of deliberation, the U.S. delivered ATACMS missiles to Ukraine in October 2023, but they were an older model with a range of 165 kilometers. Newer variations of ATACMS have a maximum range of around 300 kilometers and have so far not been provided to Ukraine.
U.S. officials told NBC that the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden is prepared to send Ukraine the longer-range ATACMS variation in one of its first aid packages if Congress passes the funding bill.
The officials also said that it was possible the U.S. would ask its allies to provide long-range ATACMS to Ukraine with the expectation that the U.S. would refill depleted stockpiles.”
All of the ATACMS are being replaced with a different missile. So they all could go to Ukraine eventually.
Kyiv Independent reports:
“Ukraine may receive its first F-16 fighter jets this June, the Foreign Policy magazine reported on Feb. 18, citing Lithuanian Defense Minister Arvydas Anusauskas and an unnamed European official...
...The Netherlands, Denmark, Norway, and Belgium have pledged to supply Ukraine with dozens of U.S.-made fourth-generation jets, though the exact timeline has remained unclear thus far...
.The “fighter jet coalition’s” support will also concern further maintenance and modernization of the aircraft, as well as financing of the process, he added.
According to (Ukraine’s Air Force spokesperson Yurii) Ihnat, Ukraine is already adapting its infrastructure to receive F-16s, although it is a complicated issue.
“Ideally, we would hide everything underground, as Iran does,” or “build reinforced concrete storage facilities that would withstand ballistic missiles,” Ihnat explained. Setting up air defenses to protect the planes against missile and drone attacks is also an important step, he noted.
While it would take years to prepare the infrastructure thoroughly, the goal of the adaption is to allow F-16s to operate from Ukrainian airfields and runways, Ihnat commented, stressing that the jets are needed “as soon as possible.””
Partisans!
The new Voice of Ukraine reports:
“A large amount of Russian military personnel arrived in occupied Crimea, with new arrivals bearing the insignia of the Wagner PMC, the ATESH movement reported on Telegram on Feb. 19.
The guerrilla movement says that soldiers from the Druid Combat Medical Unit, the 80th Separate Arctic Brigade, military vehicles from the Arkhangelsk Oblast, and people from the Komi Republic were spotted in the city of Dzhankoi.
ATESH stated that Dzhankoi has become a major logistics center for the Russian occupation.”
Within range of GLSDBs?
https://www.businessinsider.com/us-army-gets-hands-new-missile-replacing-powerful-atacms-2023-12
December 8, 2023.
How did they survive
“Dzhankoi... Within range of GLSDBs?”
Maybe just barely, but maybe not (Wikipedia reported a 93 mile range). The launcher would have to be very close to the front (the Dniper River), which could be vulnerable.
I think they can be launched from containers, without risking HIMARS or MLRS launchers.
Reporting From Ukraine:
Note: other versions of this report are found elsewhere on FR, but this is guaranteed to be the complete transcript - unlike the others.
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU
[ Five Cocky Russian Pilots vs. Patriot Air Defense ]
==
Day 726: Feb 19
Today, there are a lot of different updates from the Orikhiv and Avdiivka directions.
First of all, when it comes to the Orikhiv direction, here Russian forces conducted several sudden waves of attacks toward the only settlement inside the bridgehead.
The Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces stated that Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian attack consisting of “a fairly large number of personnel” with about 30 tanks and armored fighting vehicles, which corresponds with numerous Russian claims that Russian forces renewed offensives in this region.
Based on the geolocated footage, Russian forces extensively used cluster munitions to prepare for storming and passing the tree lines and then sent one assault unit after another.
Ukrainians targeted the assault units with drones and anti-tank guided missiles, which made the Russian attacks extremely disorderly, with the units breaking down into multiple parts, where each part did whatever it wanted - some decided to run away, some immediately tried to seek shelter from the Ukrainian fire, others continued the suicidal assault alone.
What made the situation for Russians even worse was that they got 80-year-old T-55 tanks with poor anti-drone protection and weak hull and turret armor. Russian military analysts tried to reframe this embarrassing offensive as a reconnaissance-in-force operation, however, this is not true.
Based on the number of forces engaged and the fact that these attacks were suddenly conducted once the front line in Avdiivka collapsed, means that Russians tried to take advantage of the possible lack of readiness of Ukrainian soldiers.
Still, some Russian sources declared success too soon and claimed that Russian soldiers entered the village.
Simultaneously, other Russian sources started urging to take that information because those Russians that entered the outskirts were there not because they breached the defense, but because they were lucky enough to find shelter and survive after the disastrous attack.
Such posts just encouraged Ukrainians to go and check the outskirts. And they were right because shortly after that, Ukrainians released multiple videos of surrendering Russian soldiers.
When it comes to the Avdiivka direction, the recent Ukrainian withdrawal gave Russian forces a huge boost in morale, and they started attacking the next Ukrainian defense line in the region.
The main Ukrainian defense line is located on the other side of the river, and for now, Ukrainian forces are still uncertain whether there is any sense in holding defense in these four settlements. Russian forces are trying to take advantage of that and break through Ukrainian defenses using small infantry groups for assaults.
The Ukrainian command previously committed fresh units to the Avdiivka front to counterattack advancing Russian forces and provide an evacuation corridor for Ukrainian units withdrawing from Avdiivka.
According to the Institute for the Study of War, these newly committed units are likely able to establish and hold defensive positions against Russian forces, degraded by their assaults on the town.
They noted that it is normal practice to bring in reinforcements to function as a receiving force that can allow withdrawing units to reconstitute behind prepared defensive positions.
The Institute for the Study of War also noted that available imagery, which they refused to present or describe in greater detail at this time to preserve Ukrainian operational security, indicates that Ukrainian forces prepared good defensive positions west of Avdiivka.
In an attempt to maintain the momentum, Russian forces started using air-dropped bombs in the same way they used them inside the town.
During the Battle for Avdiivka, Russian forces appear to have temporarily established limited and localized air superiority and were able to provide ground troops with close air support during the final days of their offensive operation, likely the first time that Russian forces have done so in Ukraine.
However, as the front line shifted westward, the Russian fighter-bombers necessarily needed to get up to ten kilometers closer to the contact line to reach the next defense line.
Unfortunately for the Russians, this was a fatal mistake, as Russians suddenly started losing their aviation in large numbers.
Two days ago Ukrainian forces reportedly shot down three Russian fighter aircraft, two SU-34s and one SU-35s, at first Russian sources tried to deny these claims.
However the Ukrainian Air Force Commander posted satellite data confirming the locations of the down planes.
Today the Ukrainian Air Force shot down two more fighter bombers, bringing the total number of destroyed jets to five.
This time there was no speculation about the destruction of the Jets as local residents managed to capture on camera the last moments of their flight. The Ukrainian Air Force Commander once again posted satellite data confirming the destruction of the planes.
What is interesting in is that the Russian Ministry of Defense, in a refusal to admit that Western air defense systems are capable of intercepting their jets, wrote of these five events as friendly fire accidents.
Even Russian sources started raising the question of whether there had been suspiciously a bit too much friendly fire lately.
Some military analysts concluded that Ukrainians brought in more air defense systems into the region to cover the withdrawal, while others claimed that Russians failed to account for the fact that the frontline shifted and without driving the Ukrainian air defense deeper into the region, it was a very bad idea to get so much closer to the contact line.
In any case, regardless of whether Russian forces can reestablish localized air superiority in the short term, the Russian infantry will continue to push in an attempt to collapse the area in front of Avdiivka and push Ukrainians behind the river.
The key question is what will happen next will the front line collapse even further?
What is the next target of of the Russian offensive operation?
Can Russian forces launch this offensive immediately, and where can Ukrainians stop the Russian advancement and kill the momentum?
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