Don't forget the Donner rule:
Travel with tasty companions...
Labor day weekend and I’ll be in the mountains and mostly off line.
Gotta get it in because the first snows hit the mountains overnight, winter’s coming. I’ll post tomorrow and then be gone until next Monday.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate to High THREAT - up dated July 14, 2024
— Attempted assassination of Trump.
***
Lawyer Stephan Stamboulieh on X (formerly Twitter) released more documents from the FBI’s symbol guide. This list seems to be an updated list of those previously released to the public. At the same time AmmoLand News received the same print outs.
The new terms added in this edition are “molon labe,” “prepping,” and “Second Amendment(2A).” The FBI says these terms can be signs of violent militia extremism. The document also says militia violent extremists (MVEs) might regard “red flag” laws, aka extreme risk protection orders (ERPOs,) as unconstitutional, but it isn’t just MVEs that think that.
Many legal experts and civil libertarians openly oppose ERPOs for the lack of due process. Several lawsuits have been filed challenging such laws, and members of Congress have spoken out against “red flag” laws.
According to the FBI, anyone who practices preparedness and is a “prepper” might be an MVE—using terms such as bug out might put you on the FBI’s radar. Many people have bug out plans for the unexpected, such as a natural disaster. Also, using Sh*t Hits the Fan (SHFT) might lead to scrutiny from the FBI. The term has been around for decades, but now the FBI considers it a possible sign of an MVE.
The FBI is scared that the term “Come and Take It” might be a sign of a willingness to resist gun control violently, even though it has been used throughout the centuries from the ancient Greeks to the Alamo. Many gun rights organizations have also used the phrase to show their willingness to fight back against unconstitutional gun control through the court system.
The updated list shows that the FBI is still targeting right-leaning individuals as targets for surveillance.
https://www.ammoland.com/2024/08/fbi-document-leak-gun-owners-are-violent-extremists/
OBSERVATION - I’m probably already on the list for many things already, so I’ll just say it - our govt / deep state is at war with us and is building the target list and justification for actions (via redefined terms) for future action.
***
In response to Zuckerberg’s letter, the Biden-Harris administration provided a statement to Fox News – that does not deny Zuckerberg’s charges.
However, the White House statement does say that social media platforms should base their censorship decisions on “the effects their actions have on the American people”:
“When confronted with a deadly pandemic, this administration encouraged responsible actions to protect public health and safety. Our position has been clear and consistent: we believe tech companies and other private actors should take into account the effects their actions have on the American people, while making independent choices about the information they present.”
OBSERVATION - Censorship and control of free speech is the pivotal component of a tyranny. The biden regime doesn’t deny they pushed censorship.
***
Director at Big Data Poll Richard Baris explained in a post on X why Garland’s comments are so alarming.
“This is what 50% of the country heard from Garland. ‘We’re gonna steal this election and if you try to fight us, we’ll put you in prison.’ God this country is totally corrupt,” he wrote.
“DOJ prosecutors and DC judges are warning that the hammer will come down on any American who protests the 2024 election results,” echoed independent journalist Julie Kelly on X after Garland made his press conference statement. “They treat J6ers like mass murderers,” she continued, citing comments from Obama-appointed District Judge Tanya Chutkan “lecturing a J6 protestor convicted of a misdemeanor.”
The DOJ brought the “hammer” down in the wake of the 2020 election, as Garland made clear. The DOJ charged hundreds of protesters — including a “praying grandma” in her 70s — under a federal statute that the Supreme Court later ruled was used in an over-broad capacity.
OBSERVATION - No mention of hillary or algore - but that is to be expected. What we see being set up here is a carbon copy of what maduro is doing in Venezuela following the recent elections there. Vigorous jailing and prosecution of those protesting his (stolen) election. The overkill prosecutions of J6 are one matter that needs to be addressed. However, threatening citizens and their rights to protest cross the red line into a whole other realm.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Debates ???
ABC September 10th
NBC September 25
Vance/walz - Oct. 1
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
Pollsters are looking close to what appears to be an absence of any significant bounce for harris following the DNC. Apart from the ones clearly biased democrat, more moderate polling indicates that the loudly touted surge in harris numbers was like a wave on the beach and is quickly pulling back.
Don’t put your trust in polls, hillary was up by 17 at this stage. And Harris’s flip flopping like the fish left on that beach as the wave receded suggests that they know things are now all “joy”
***
Federal prosecutors have filed a new indictment of former President Trump in the special counsel’s case against him alleging a conspiracy to obstruct the 2020 election after the Supreme Court issued a ruling granting presidents immunity.
RUMINT. Special Counsel Jack smith is planning to indict in September over 200 GOP members of congress who assisted Trump in conspiring “to overturn the presidential election and overthrow the government.”
OBSERVATION - Smith is a good little drone, and his reworded indictments likely will have less substance than before.
HOWEVER, what I find more disturbing is the rumor that smith is contemplating indicting 200 members of congress for the same. That will raise the political heat by an order of magnitude and likely force the issue of his removal as being an illegal appointment - something still working thru the courts. If there ever was a broader reason for a CW . . . . .
Biden / Harris Watch –
On Thursday — 39 days since being installed as the Democrat nominee — Kamala will sit for her first formal interview.
- Joint, since she’s not competent enough to do it on her own.
- Taped, so her handlers have time to play damage control.
***
Harris has been flip flopping on numerous issues. Some of the latest is reversal on the EV mandate and now is even advocating building the wall that she opposed on the border.
RELATED - Tim Walz: I’ll invest in a “ladder factory” to help illegal aliens jump the border wall
In other news, Kamala Harris has reportedly flip-flopped on the border wall and now supports its construction.
***
Looks like harris capitulated on the debate rules for ABC and will go forward with the originally agreed to rules.
“The Rules will be the same as the last CNN Debate, which seemed to work out well for everyone except, perhaps, Crooked Joe Biden. The Debate will be ‘stand up,’ and Candidates cannot bring notes, or ‘cheat sheets,’” Trump explained.
“We have also been given assurance by ABC that this will be a ‘fair and equitable’ Debate, and that neither side will be given the questions in advance (No Donna Brazile!),” Trump added.
Illegal Immigration –
CROSS REFERENCE TO CW2 AS WELL - Hundreds of Venezuelan migrants are illegally working as food delivery drivers across America, DailyMail.com can reveal, showing up to your door under names and identities that don’t belong to them.
The troubling development is a consequence of the one million Venezuelan citizens who have flooded into the US, largely illegally, during President Joe Biden‘s time in office, with many entering through the US-Mexico border.
It raises huge concerns about the safety of the home delivery apps and the consumer’s ability to trust who is actually delivering food to their home and family – with customers’ personal information potentially placed in the hands of dangerous street gangs.
OBSERVATION - The potential for follow-on crime and other abuse is astronomical.
China –
While the world has been focused on the geopolitical tensions between China and the West, a more subtle battle has been unfolding in the global financial markets. China, through a series of calculated moves, has been quietly accumulating vast quantities of gold and silver. This move has signaled a potential shift in the global economic landscape and highlights the developing countries’ need for exorbitant amounts of resources.
https://www.jpost.com/business-and-innovation/precious-metals/article-815780#google_vignette
OBSERVATION - China’s not only working to hoard gold and silver, they are locking down the availability of rare earth metals and materials as well as purchasing copious amounts of food for stockpile.
Phillipines –
(FO) Commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, Admiral Samuel Paparo said that escorting Philippine vessels to their resupply points in the South China Sea is “an entirely reasonable option within our Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT).” This was in response to a question about the repeated Chinese aggression surrounding the Spratly Islands.
General Romeo Brawner, chief of the Armed Forces of the Philippines, said that the Philippines would run resupply missions on its own until they are constrained from doing so. He followed-on that the Philippines may turn to “other like minded nations” instead of the U.S.
OBSERVATION - Chinese aggression will only continue until some one stands up to the bully and pushes back. When that happens things could get spicy.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the upper 80s to mid 90s range and fair.
RUMINT –
Unconfirmed reports that the Ukrainian Military has entered the territory of the Belgorod Oblast, Russia & is gaining a foothold. Fighting has been confirmed in the areas but extent of penetration is unknown.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russian forces are slowly moving towards Pokrovsk, a key logistical hub in Ukraine’s Donbas region, concerns about its potential loss are mounting.
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
Ukrainian forces continue to push outward.
Crimean front —
Russian army is moving S-300/S-400 from Sevastopol towards eastern Crimea. Evidently attempting to reinforce air defenses over Kerch Strait bridge.
Russian Territory –
Oil depot of Russian state reserve enterprise “Atlas” caught fire after drone attack near Kamensk-Shakhtinsky of Rostov region
Outlook —
Russian move towards Pokrovsk is of increasing concern. Its capture would provide Russia with significant options to spread the fight into other areas of the Donbas. Ukraine needs to get serious about shutting this threat down.
The Belarus border buildup has caused growing concern to me. I’ve seen nothing from Ukraine on counter efforts. I would hope that they’ve deployed an abundance of mines and other obstacles on assault routes into Ukraine from these staging areas. As noted under Belarus - these brigades may represent the best trained units under Wagner scrutiny. But should Belarus join the fight, there are strong possibilities that Poland may execute its own incursion into Belarus. However, at this time no Polish buildup has been noted towards the Belarus border beyond that supporting the protection of the border from migrant penetrations.
Belarus -
Belarusian units added the tactical sign “B” on their tanks while “exercising” on the border to Ukraine. Two mechanized brigades of equipment have been deployed to the border with Ukraine. They have been allocated the tactical sign ‘В’. The equipment has no ‘cope cages’ - fencing and the like designed to stop FPV drones from getting to the tank/armored vehicle.
OBSERVATION - As more details come in, the needle is moving towards a potential foray by Belarus into Ukraine. The addition of the “B” is an invasion marking to avoid friendly fire incidents, seen a lot from Russia using “V” or “Z” on their vehicles and equipment. The presence of former Wagner is of foremost concern and as advisors would provide significant tactical capabilities to the forces. Secondly, there is evidence as I’ve said before that they have been conducting more intense training of the Belarus army and that they are a more capable element than 2 years ago. A relatively small element of 2 brigades could easily represent an ‘elite’ group with more intensive training by Wagner.
Europe / NATO General –
Reports are emerging that the United Arab Emirates government has FROZEN billions of dollars worth of contracts with France for the purchase of 80 fighter jets due to the recent arrest of Telegram CEO Pavel Durov.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Israel launches major operation in Jenin and the West Bank.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
In a special operation by our forces, the abducted Qadi Farhan was rescued from the Gaza Strip. Qadi was found during an Israeli operation to capture a network of Hamas tunnels under southern Gaza
In a night operation lasting a few hours in south Khan Yunis, the body of the soldier Shaked Cohen, who was killed on 7th October and was abducted to Gaza, was recovered. Now 107 abductees remain in captivity, of which 35 are presumed dead
A former mayor of Rahat said rescued hostage Farhan al-Qadi told him that a fellow captive died alongside him in Gaza, as details began to trickle out about his more than 10 months in Hamas captivity after he was rescued Tuesday by Israeli special forces.The information could not immediately be verified and there was no comment from the Israel Defense Forces or from the Hostage Families Forum.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Israel army says it has destroyed a 3 km long tunnel in central Gaza
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Israel continued to strike throughout S Lebanon and the Beqaa valley. An Israeli strike overnight in Lebanon’s Beqaa valley targeted multiple trucks carrying ammunition in the Baalbek region
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said Monday that 90% of the Hezbollah rockets that were intercepted Sunday were fired from civilian areas in southern Lebanon, a further violation of international law by the Iran-backed terror group.
Hezbollah and Hamas, a Palestinian terror group, both follow the practice of hiding weapons among civilians so that if Israel attacks the weapons sites, there will be civilian casualties for which Israel will be blamed — even though intentionally exposing civilians to enemy fire is a violation of international humanitarian law by the terrorists.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
3 Palestinians and a Lebanese killed in Israeli raid on their car in the Damascus countryside. Likely affiliated with Hamas ore Hezbollah.
A number of missiles were launched from Syrian territory towards the Golan. Israeli artillery targeted several military points in the Quneitra province in Syria
———WEST BANK——————————-
The IDF has begun a MAJOR operation to arrest wanted persons and destroy terrorist infrastructure in Judea & Samaria.
The operation will be targeting 3 main camps: Jenin, Nur al-Shams (Tulkarm), and Parah. IDF forces have already encircled hospitals to prevent terrorists from reaching them, and screening the patients who enter.
The broad operation, includes significant air cover, hundreds of fighters, including undercover, and the possibility of an orderly population evacuation of Palestinians depending on the intensity of the combat.
Exchanges of fire overnight were ongoing in the camps, and there are casualties among the terrorists, mainly in Jenin, where at least two were killed.
This IDF Special Operation into the West Bank tonight is a significant one. Reports of several units on the ground, some with armour, air assets also up. Reports of airstrikes and several terrorist killed. Likely this will last for much longer than just tonight.
The IDF has surrounded a hospital in the terrorist town of Jenin, which is full of terrorists, and is expected to storm into it.
Israeli FM: The Israeli army is working intensively from tonight in the Jenin and Tulkarm refugee camps to thwart Islamic-Iranian terrorist infrastructures that have been established there. Iran is working to establish an eastern terrorist front against Israel in the West Bank, according to the Gaza and Lebanon model, by financing and arming militants and smuggling advanced weapons from Jordan. We must deal with the threat just as we deal with the terrorist infrastructure in Gaza, including the temporary evacuation of Palestinian residents and whatever steps are required. This is a war for everything and we must win it.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Jordanian Foreign Minister: Security Council and international community must take immediate measures to stop Israeli violations in Jerusalem
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israeli security forces have been aggressively working in the West Bank and in particular of late, Jenin since the start of the Gaza war. Iran has been trying to build a Hamas- like terror network to act as another front in its war against Israel. For clarity, the fronts Iran has designed consist of Hamas, Hezbollah, Syria, Iraq, Houthi and now the west bank. Jordan has not been too effective in stopping arms and munitions smuggled into the West bank from Syria or Iraq.
US still emphasizing that iran is set to launch an attack. This has been their assessment for weeks now and as far as a US preparation posture I would endorse. Iran continues to make similar threats, but with a caveat that any delay is to inflict psychological stress on Israel.
I expect the game of chicken to continue for a little while longer. Iran, however, can’t afford to wait too long as support is eroding and they are losing face. They also can’t wait too much longer as Israel continues to chisel away at Hezbollahs readiness and capabilities. Hezbollah is also losing patience with Iran and may try to take further actions on its own.
Iran –
Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, on Tuesday opened the door to renewed negotiations with the United States over his country’s nuclear program, telling its civilian government there was “no harm” in engaging with its “enemy”, The Associated Press reported.
Khamenei’s remarks set clear red lines for any talks taking place under the government of new President Masoud Pezeshkian and he renewed his warnings that Washington cannot be trusted.
However, his comments mirror those around the time of the signing of the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and world powers, noted AP.
“This does not mean that we cannot interact with the same enemy in certain situations,” Khamenei said, according to a transcript on his official website. “There is no harm in that, but do not place your hopes in them.”
Khamenei, who has the final say on all state matters, also warned Pezeshkian’s Cabinet, “Do not trust the enemy.”
Asked for comment, the US State Department told AP, “We will judge Iran’s leadership by their actions, not their words.”
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/395276
OBSERVATION - Delay / distraction tactic by Tehran to get focus and support off/away from Israel.
***
Iranian Deputy Defense Minister says their revenge for Haniyeh’s assassination will be “sudden and proportionate”, and Israel “must live in a state of psychological anxiety”
***
NSC spokesperson John Kirby says Iran is “postured and poised” to attack Israel, says US has warned Iran not to attack, will help defend Israel if Iran does
Misc of Note –
I don’t know about you, but just when you think things can’t get any crazier someone calls out ‘hold ma beer’ and the chaos ramps up another notch.
All of this has caused many to consider that there is a storm approaching in the near future of a magnitude not seen since the civil war. We see the deep state moving resolutely to imposing a communistic rule over the country, global economic and wars , and an over all breakdown of society.
I don’t want to drift into the ‘cry wolf’ syndrome but I’ve never saw anything like this in my 60+ years of orbiting the sun. And it’s only getting worse.
Don't forget the Donner rule:
Travel with tasty companions...
Furnace kicked on this morning - a sure sign that the seasons be a-changing here in the Redoubt. My primary and secondary heaters on the RV are up and functional - no roughing it this weekend.
So until Monday at the earliest -
Globalism / Great Reset –
Sept 22- 23: UN Summit of the Future
UN Secretary General António Gutteres is doubling down on his shrill climate demands, as he approaches the final stretch of his zero achievement term of office.
“Wealthy countries like Australia must immediately phase out fossil fuels and block new coal projects and oil and gas expansion to drastically reduce greenhouse emissions, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said in Tonga on Tuesday.
The UN issued a global SOS – what Guterres described as a “save our seas”, releasing new data from NASA and the World Meteorological Organisation that showed sea-level rises had doubled since the 1990s.”
…
“Without drastic cuts to emissions, the Pacific islands can expect at least 15 centimetres of additional sea-level rise by mid-century, and more than 30 days per year of coastal flooding in some places,” Guterres told reporters at the forum.
…
Read more: https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/pacific-in-peril-un-urges-australia-to-block-new-coal-and-gas-projects-20240823-p5k4ue.html
OBSERVATION - Same old song and dance. At most we are talking a few millimeters of rise and in the Pacific Island regions, some sea level DROPS have been documented.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
(FO) According to Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor, 56% of agricultural economists said the U.S. agriculture sector is on the brink of a recession, and 53% of ag economists said U.S. agriculture was already in a recession. One economist said beef cattle supply fundamentals have not changed, but demand could drop due to an economy-wide recession.
OBSERVATION - Ranchers are still struggling to regrow their herds that they had to cull during the severe drought a couple years ago that decimated feed supplies. A recession and lowered demand will further impede the growth of the herds.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Debates ???
ABC September 10th
NBC September 25
Vance/walz - Oct. 1
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
The Trump campaign announced that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI) will be honorary co-chairs of Trump’s transition team.
OBSERVATION - Whatever “transition” means. But not a surprising development for anyone who watched the convention and saw how broad a tent the republicans were working to cast.
Biden / Harris Watch –
The Supreme Court on Wednesday temporarily sided with states that sued to pause the Biden-Harris administration’s latest effort to implement student loan forgiveness.
***
Biden now on his second week of vacation - who’s running the show?
Illegal Immigration –
Posted videos show the Aurora, Colo. apartment building is turning into a slum after Venezuelan migrants moved in. Security cameras caught members of the gang “Tren de Aragua (TdA) “ walking around brandishing guns, and there was a reported shooting at the complex.
TdA started out as a prison gang in Venezuela and has expanded throughout the Western Hemisphere. In July, the Biden administration designated the gang as a transnational criminal organization, accusing it of engaging in human smuggling and trafficking, gender-based violence, money laundering and illicit drug trafficking.
Local law enforcement has denied the claims that the gang has taken control of any apartment complexes. However, the release of security camera footage
OBSERVATION - Some consider this gang to be more violent and dangerous than MS-13. Their literal and open seizure of now at least two apartment complexes IIRC in Aurora is outrageous. Tren de Aragua (TdA) has been documented operating in the NE US, primarily in NYC where there has been a tentative balance with MS-13 over operating arrangements.
Further shows the risk to America from the tsunami of illegals across the spectrum. There are enough here that should an organized ‘uprising’ occur, standard law enforcement would be very hard pressed to control, even with National Guard support.
***
(FO) A 5th Circuit Court of Appeals panel ruled 3-0 yesterday that illegal immigrants in the U.S. are prohibited from owning firearms. In March, Illinois U.S. District Judge Sharon Johnson Coleman ruled that illegal immigrants were not prohibited from owning firearms on 2nd Amendment grounds.
OBSERVATION - Common sense, but is enroute to the USSC anyway.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the upper 80s to mid 90s range and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Third day of heavy Russian missile/drone attacks. The Ukrainian Air Force reports on a combined missile and drone attack overnight.
Shot down:
2/3 Kh-59/69 cruise missiles
60/74 Shahed drones
Another 14 drones were lost and fell somewhere in Ukrainian territory, possibly due to electronic warfare measures. At least one of these drones is suspected to have strayed into Belarus airspace and was shot down.
In addition Russia attacked with two cruise missiles of an unknown type of which information is now being clarified.
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
Growing evidence that the Ukraine army is shifting to a more defensive posture and fighting is to establish defensive advantages.
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russian forces making substantial gains on the southwestern portion of the salient. They have pushed across the M-30 highway. Russian Ministry of Defense claimed full occupation of Stelmakhivka in Luhansk region of Ukraine and Mykolaivka in Donetsk region of Ukraine
Russian Territory –
Fire has spread to four fuel tanks at the Russian “Atlas” oil depot, which was attacked by drones, and efforts to contain it have been unsuccessful. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian General Staff confirmed strikes on the “Zenit” oil depot in the Kirov region, over 1,400 km from the Ukrainian border, as well as successful hits on an ammunition depot in the Voronezh region and the “Atlas” oil depot in the Rostov region.
Reports that the Ukrainians attacked a hydroelectric power station in Ryazan province.
Outlook —
Third round of Russian missile / drone attacks - mostly by a lot of Shahed drones. Russian ballistic and cruise missile use is way, way down. This trend is likely to continue for a few more days. Monday’s attacks were the largest since the start of the war.
Ukraine has maintained its efforts to degrade Russia’s petroleum sector, continuing to hit refineries and distribution centers. The growing success indicates likely advancements in Ukraine drone capabilities as well as degradation of Russian ADA, creating holes in the defense.
The Russian push on the Pokrovsk axis is becoming increasing fierce and successful. It is throwing just about everything it can to reach Pokrovsk before the mud season hits. All other available reserves have been shifted to Kursk.
Reevaluated the situation with Belarus’ military build up. More verified numbers indicate the brigades deployed there are understrength. Their positioning (Homiel region) is not optimal except to push into the northeast corner of Ukraine and possibly attempt to threaten Sumy. To try to reach Kyiv they’s have to pass thru the Chernoval nuclear zone. Thus I’m backing off my concerns over a potential injection of Belarus into Ukraine at this point. See also Belarus below.
Belarus -
As of August 29, the number of the group of the Belarusian Armed Forces redeployed to Homiel region increased to ~1150 people. This is the minimum and confirmed number of troops. The number of forces redeployed to the border doesn’t pose a military threat to Ukraine.
Lukashenka: There were no orders to go fight outside Belarus, and there will be none. “We will only fight when they come to us with bad intentions,” he stressed
Belarusian Air Forces have used a fighter jet to shot down Russian Shahed drones that entered its airspace by accident.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Israel took out the most wanted terrorist in Judea and Samaria - Abu Shuja’a.
- Operations continue in the West Bank
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Several pin-point operations / raids in various areas of Gaza with artillery and airstrikes.
Unconfirmed rumors that clans and independent militias in Gaza are increasingly hostile to remaining Hamas leadership and forces. They are blaming them more and more with bringing down the wrath of Israel by locating and firing from civilian and other ‘protected’ sites.
Hamas leader Sinwar, besides dressing as a woman, reportedly has about 20 hostages around him at all times.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
RUMINT. The MTV Lebanon channel reports from sources that the Iranian attack on Israel is expected to take place in 2-3 days. The reaction is expected to be limited and will not lead to an all-out war.
NOTE - Later reports just say “media” citing arab sources that US has warned them about the impending attack timeframe. I don’t consider the sources as credible and appear to be echoing what US has openly been saying lately.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Explosions are reported from Barzah area of Damascus. It being reported that Barzah area has been attacked by missiles.
The Syrian Scientific Research and Studies Center (SSRC) facility is located in Barzah, and has been attacked by Israel in the past.
———WEST BANK——————————-
In an operation in Tulkarm, the IDF special forces killed several terrorists amongst which was the most wanted terrorist in Judea and Samaria - Abu Shuja’a.
“Abu Shujaa”, was the head of a terrorist network in Nur Shams. He was involved in carrying out numerous terror attacks, including a shooting attack in which an Israeli civilian, Amnon Muchtar, was murdered in June. Jabber was also involved in the planning of additional terror attacks.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Houthi have attempted to fire missiles at Israel, launches failed.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
The U.N. Security Council on Wednesday demanded a halt to the increasing attacks between Lebanon’s Hezbollah terrorists and Israeli forces and warned that further escalation “carries the high risk of leading to a widespread conflict.”
——— FORECAST ————————-
Threat of immediate escalation in fighting between Israel and Hezbollah have subsided for now. The strength of the Israeli preemptive strike sent the message. Now things are shifting back to previous ‘levels’ where Israel continues to successfully target leadership with drone strikes, while IAF picks apart key Hezbollah C2, logistics and missile/rocket attack facilities.
In Gaza, Hamas continues to be attrited to the extent that its control over the civilians is being challenged internally. Actions taken by Sinwar to protect himself are not that uncommon as terrorists have disguised themselves in the past as women. This tactic and other reports, though unconfirmed, generally point to the fact that he is running out of room and time. If Israeli PR and outreach can sway the local clans into an understanding that the quickest way to end the bombing is getting rid of Hamas and Sinwar in particular - and show good will toward that end, the noose could close quickly. For now there are still an abundance of tunnels he can hid in but food/water is increasingly scarce.
When and even if Iran will launch a revenge strike are still unknown. I’ve listed my thoughts a lot in previous posts. Israel will not be so generous this time around with their counterstrike, so Iran may well be calculating how big an attack is necessary to appease their ‘revenge’ without poking the bear hard enough to provoke Israel to not do too much damage.
My luck it’ll happen while I’m in the woods, so stay alert. If Iran does pull the trigger, I think they ‘ll avoid doing other rash stuff like attempting to close the Straits of Hormuz or launching a cyber attack against the US and other western nations. Those actions would be more aligned with a go for broke Iranian attack and all out war with Israel (and the west)
Iran –
Iranian Armed Forces General Staff Chief Major General Mohammad Bagheri restated on August 28 the Iranian intent to attack Israel in retaliation for killing Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
***
Unconfirmed reports that the cabinet of the newly elected Iranian president is hitting rough times with the ruling mullahs and the IRGC. This may be causing some of the apparent delay in any retaliatory strike against Israel since the mullah’s think allah is on their side and any who die due to an Israeli counter strike is just fine. The new president is not as religiously fanatical and a little more pragmatic, recognizing that it falls upon him and his cabinet to hold the country together is such an escalation in war occurs.
Mexico -
(FO) Mexico’s President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) said his relationships with U.S. Ambassador Ken Salazar and Canada’s Ambassador are “on pause” after they criticized AMLO’s support for judicial reforms. Salazar warned the judicial reforms would make it easier for cartels to infiltrate Mexican courts.
Venezuela -
Supporters of Venezuela’s political opposition and backers of the ruling party each held rallies on Wednesday to mark the one-month anniversary of July’s disputed presidential election, as arrests of opposition figures continued.
OBSERVATION - As I’ve noted before, the opposition has missed its opportunity and the initiative is back in maduro’s corner.