CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate to High THREAT - up dated July 14, 2024
— Attempted assassination of Trump.
August 19 - DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
RNC convention and Netanyahu’s visit essentially complete, eyes need to turn to the democrat convention in Chicago. There are currently no major societal triggers that could be used to found a 2020 Floyd style violence.
I suspect in part some on the violent leftist side of the dial may be assessing the harris presidential bid as to if violence/protests will assist their cause and her election. she is already clearly the most marxist presidential candidate ever from the democrat party. Her hostility towards Israel may calm some of the planned protests by pro-hamas elements at the convention. OTOH, she is doubling down on the open borders and associated issues, which may stimulate black in Chicago to maintain their protests. Her Jamacan/Indian heritage is not winning points in the black community either.
Potential big triggering event could be Israel going full out against Hezbollah.
***
Ngo on “X” is noting an attempt by Portland Antifa to step up attacks on police stations in a manner similar to 2020 - trying to put some desire to fight into its followers. So far the attacks have not been very successful and in fact, catching agitators off guard via sudden arrests.
I am viewing such actions as very local and unlikely to spread to any other city/region.
Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of May 6, 2024
Suspected Iranian based terror attacks ongoing in France surrounding the start of the Olympics. Such actions - such as vandalism/disruption of mass transit, etc, could give insight to similar in the US should Israel expand its war with Hezbollah.
Economy- MODERATE Threat - as of June 26, 2024
According to its initial (“advance”) estimate, real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.8% in the second quarter of 2024 – offsetting its dismal 1.4% first-quarter increase, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported Thursday.
Averaged out, real GDP has increased 2.1% in first two quarters, on par with the 2.0% benchmark analysts consider to be normal, or average, growth.
Meanwhile, measures of personal income, the income that is received by persons from all sources, weakened in the second quarter, the BEA reports:
- Current-dollar personal income increased $237.6 billion in the second quarter, down from $396.8 billion growth in the first quarter.
- Disposable personal income growth was 3.6%, down from its 4.8% increase in the first quarter.
- Real disposable personal income slowed to 1.0%, compared with an increase of 1.3% in the first quarter.
- Personal Savings growth fell from $777.3 billion to $$720.5 billion.
- Personal Savings Rate fell to 3.5%, down from 3.8% in the first quarter.
OBSERVATION - Hardly the happy days are here again economy the democrats keep harping about. We also need to keep in mind that the common trend for economic news like this is that it is often downgraded later on.
POLITICAL FRONT –
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
With that in mind, now for some polls -
Only 39 percent of registered independents say Vice President Kamala Harris is “qualified” to be president, an Economist/YouGov poll recently found.
The latest Rasmussen Reports poll shared with Secrets and taken over the past three nights. It shows Trump leading Harris with likely voters 50%-43%, well outside the margin of error. Significantly, the new poll shows a massive 20-point gap among independent voters favoring Trump, 53%-33%. It does show a slight gain in Democratic voter support for Harris over Biden.
As CNN noted in their reporting on the latest polling data, while Biden led Trump by 21 points in the Under age 35 demographic, Harris is only leading by 9 points.
Ninety-two percent of Americans believe Vice President Kamala Harris knew about President Joe Biden’s apparent failing health, a recent survey shows.
***
Following Tuesday’s resignation by Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle, DHS Secretary Alejandro N. Mayorkas named Ronald J. Rowe, Jr. as the agency’s Acting Director.
“I look forward to all we will accomplish,” Rowe said upon his appointment, touting the success he and Chealte had had in their previous “no-fail protective mission.”
“Director Cheatle and I have worked in collaboration to achieve our no-fail protective mission. Together, we managed critical incidents and National Special Security Events, planned complex protective operations and oversaw research to develop and deploy technologies that reduce risks to our protectees, protected facilities and protected events.
“I am eager to join forces again and support her vision for the Secret Service. I look forward to all we will accomplish.”
OBSERVATION - Not sure he REALLY wants to hitch his wagon to Cheatle’s tenure.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Massive makeover of harris’ activities as VP and senator is underway on the internet - but overlook that the internet never forgets.
- The MSM is trying to erase harris’ title of “border czar” in a desperate effort to decouple her from that devastating (for democrats) issue. The ‘fact checkers’ were out in force, pushing the spin into the red zone and likely backfiring by instigating folks to relook the claims.
- GovTrack, an organization that tracks voting records in Congress, yanked its 2019 rating that pegged then-Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) as the most liberal member of the upper chamber – after several media outlets including The Post cited the statistic in stories on the presumed Democratic presidential nominee.
The website pulled down its 2019 ranking on Monday evening after it got renewed attention in the wake of President Biden’s seismic decision to drop out of the 2024 race on Sunday, its founder confirmed to The Post.
OBSERVATION - One can only expect more of the attempt to whitewash out harris’ radical marxist past combined with the MSM trying to present her as the greatest thing since sliced bread.
***
biden and harris separately met with Netanyahu yesterday after initial schedules having them doing other things.
Harris reportedly told Netanyahu “It is time for this war to end,” emphasizing the need for a path to a two-state solution.
***
the 0bamas have finally, grudgingly endorsed harris’ run for the presidency, even though he doesn’t see her having any chance.
Illegal Immigration –
One of the world’s most powerful drug lords, Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada, leader of Mexico’s Sinaloa cartel, has been arrested by US federal agents in El Paso, Texas.
Zambada, 76, founded the criminal organisation with Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman, who is currently jailed in the US.
Arrested with Zambada on Thursday was Guzman’s son, Joaquin Guzman Lopez, said the US justice department.
In February, Zambada was charged by US prosecutors with a conspiracy to make and distribute fentanyl, a drug more powerful than heroin that has been blamed for the US opioid crisis.
Details of the arrests of the two men remain unclear, but it appears they flew into the United States.
Citing Mexican and US officials, the Wall Street Journal reports that Zambada was tricked into boarding the plane by a high-ranking Sinaloa member following a months-long operation by Homeland Security Investigations and the FBI.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4ng4g31x1wo
OBSERVATION - It is already pretty clear that the cartels have infiltrated and continue to grow their presence in the US. After effects of this capture may well be a surge in cartel violence in Mexico as various groups try to take advantage of the power vacuum and expand territory or settle grudges.
Russia -
Kerch Bridge update –
Russian forces are massively moving equipment closer to the Kerch Bridge, according to Ukrainian partisan movement “Atesh.” They are relocating surviving air defense systems, aviation, radars, and military facilities from the western part of Crimea towards the strategic crossing. Partisans report that the occupiers can only cover one area of the peninsula due to a critical shortage of air defense systems.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 80 - 90 degree range and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 20 Shahed drones overnight. Key targeted areas appear to have been Zaporizhzhia and Odesa regions.
Intense Russian attacks along the Ocheretyne, Chasiv Yar and Pivnichne sectors.
ISW and other analysts are reporting that Ukrainian forces blunted one of the largest Russian mechanized assaults in Ukraine since October 2023 in western Donetsk Oblast on July 24. Imagery, and other intelligence shows that Ukrainian forces stopped a reinforced battalion-size Russian mechanized assault near Kostyantynivka (southwest of Donetsk City) after Russian forces advanced up to the southeastern outskirts of the settlement. ISW last observed Russian forces conduct a battalion-sized mechanized attack in Donetsk Oblast in March 2024. Russian forces have not conducted larger mechanized assaults in Ukraine since the first days of Russia’s four-month-long operation to seize Avdiivka in October 2023.
Russia reportedly lost nearly a dozen tanks, a lot of APCs and other vehicles carrying troops with heavy associated troop losses.
Crimean front —
General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine confirmed overnight attack at Saky airfield in occupied Crimea
Outlook —
The report of the dismal results of the July 24th assault by Russia is telling in many ways. First shows that higher level leadership and planning are hurting. Second, though the objective of the attack was practical, Russian forces charged straight into a drone/artillery and AT maelstrom. They apparently had no supporting artillery or air cover.
The majority of the Russian attacks are at a company or smaller scale. This tends to short change Russian efforts by not having enough forces to exploit any gains as well as having many units decimated in piecemeal.
In spite of the failure, I expect Russia to try more large attacks in this sector.
Reported redeployment of in particular ADA assets around the Kersch bridge is significant. Ukraine has waged a successful effort to target and destroy ADA assets and those efforts have borne fruit in the clearing out of the Black Sea Fleet out of Crimea, as well as forcing redeployment of fighter/bomber assets further from the border. Right now, Ukraine has forced Russia to essentially rely solely upon the bridge for the vast majority of its military supplies. Should Russia lose the bridge (and much of the remaining ADA assets) life for both the Russian military and civilians will get very bad.
Russian destruction of the dam on the Dniper River that supplied water to Crimea, on top of other infrastructure problems reportedly is causing large areas of the peninsula to try to revert to its semi-arid climate - creating crop losses and lack of water in general.
I don’t think Ukraine’s actions (including trying to destroy the bridge) will result in Russia pulling out, but it will create a severe logistical pull to sustain military forces and civilian demands for basics.
Europe / NATO General –
A new video shows Romanian Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft guns shooting down two Russian suicide drones across the river separating Romania from Ukraine near Izmail.
Romania was forced to take action after at least 1 suicide drone hit 11 km deep into its territory and additional drones were flying their way.
OBSERVATION - This is the first instance of NATO weapons firing of Russian assets. Poland has threatened similar in the past months. This may push NATO into establishing some sort of no fly zone coverage over adjacent regions in Ukraine to protect against future spill over of Russian drones/missiles.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Netanyahu meets with biden and harris in spite of earlier rejections. To meet with Trump today
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
Israeli foreign minister accuses Iran of being behind “the sabotage” of the railway infrastructure across France, saying that they have “reliable information” that Iran and its allies are planning to attack Israeli Olympic teams and France’s Olympic Games in general
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Heavy fighting continues in and around Khan Yunis
Scattered IAF airstrikes throughout central and N Gaza.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
A cell of Hezbollah operatives was struck in southern Lebanon’s Markaba a short while ago, the Israeli army says. The military says the operatives were spotted by troops of the 869th Combat Intelligence Collection Unit entering a building used by the terror group, and a short while later, a fighter jet carried out an airstrike.
Separately, overnight, the Israeli army says it struck another building used by Hezbollah in Ayta ash-Shab.
One rocket launched from Lebanon at the Upper Galilee a short while ago was intercepted by air defenses, the Israeli army adds.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces arrest 23 Palestinians in the West Bank
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Reports of a rocket attack on Conico Base in Deir Ez Zor, Syria
——— FORECAST ————————-
I don’t see any signifiant changes in the Gaza fight. Israel continues to create opportunities for hamas to try to reform, then hammers them as they are doing in Khan Yunis.
Israel will continue to make preparations to go full on against Hezbollah. These preparations will increasingly focus on preparation of the battlefield via targeted strikes against leadership, other command and control, logistics/stockpiles, etc. Hezbollah continues to aid Israel in these efforts by exposing leadership, rocket firing positions and stockpiles etc.
Current stage of israeli preparations does not indicate an imminent assault, but does indicate continued progression toward one as early as mid August.
Globalism / Great Reset –
A whole new level of disgust was flashed before the world last night as the 2024 Olympics were opened up in Paris. It started with a bisexual ménage à trois and it just goes down hill from there.
The IOC and Paris organizers went out of their way to produce an abomination for the world to see. Top of the list was a scene recreating the famous painting of The Last Supper, but Jesus is replaced with an obese woman, while queer and trans figures (including a child!) depict her apostles.
Other overt pagan and satanic symbolism was scattered throughout, including a beheading theme, an angel of death and the white horse of the apocalypse. Another scene had a golden cow/bull on an altar being worshiped.
More specifically targeting the US was a scene where the Statue of Liberty (a gift from France) is seen shot up and beaten up as a balloon flies by.
France is a minion of the globalist powers as is the IOC. This spectacle gives insight as to what to expect if the WEF/globalists take control of the world. It shows what they consider to be the threats to this new world order - Christianity and the US - and display what is favored by these leaders - hedonism and paganism.
Such trend is foretold in the Bible, cumulating in the tribulation period described in the books of Daniel and Revelation.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate to High THREAT - up dated July 14, 2024
— Attempted assassination of Trump.
August 19 - DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
To no one’s surprise, none of the people arrested for any of the Netanyahu protests were charged, and all were released.
Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of May 6, 2024
Follow up on the sabotage of France’s high speed rail network. Yesterday Iran was accused, now more recent efforts suggest Russian saboteurs. The system was hit in a synchronized and widespread manner, stranding as many as 800k passengers.
The carry over to the US is pretty clear. We have enough illegals from hostile countries that terror/sabotage teams likely have infiltrated and can easily attack infrastructure targets like the electrical grid, water supplies, etc as they are poorly protected - if at all. I’m certain that these teams are only waiting for the ‘go’ order.
Make sure your family has emergency supplies - especially water - stored up.
Economy- MODERATE Threat - as of June 26, 2024
A growing number of Americans are falling behind on their monthly credit card payments as they continue to battle high inflation and interest rates.
New data published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia shows that credit card delinquency rates in the first quarter of 2024 rose to the highest level since 2012, when the Fed began tracking the data. All stages of credit card delinquency — 30, 60 and 90 days past due — rose during the first three months of the year.
The average credit card annual percentage rate, or APR, has been holding steady at 20.71% this week
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/credit-card-delinquency-rates-hit-151608967.html
OBSERVATION - Some of this may be the result in people trying to maintain their pre-wuhan standard of living. But more likely much can now be attributed to people just trying to make ends meet to survive.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Between 118,000 and 248,000 more Americans would have survived the pandemic if all states had followed some restrictions practiced in Northeastern states, according to findings published Friday in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA).
The most effective responses were mask mandates and vaccine requirements, the JAMA study found.
But the JAMA research extolled these policies and said they should help guide public health response in future pandemics even as an uncontrolled rise in bird flu hits the West.
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/4794767-covid-19-restrictions-savings/
OBSERVATION - This is an effort by the medical leftists to prepare the ground for another round of medical malpractice over the bird flu - coming soon to a theatre near you.
Very clearly it has been demonstrated that masking did nothing to prevent the spread of wuhan. Only strictly worn N95 masks had a chance to filter out the virus. Everyone walking around with their designer mask only spread the disease.
Second - not only did the jabs fail to prevent infections - but follow on studies indicate that it made matters worse and contributed to the spreading of the virus.
Finally - the jab is now indicted for numerous deaths via many means - largely the obvious heart failures (Sudden Adult Death, or SAD), and others. It has been argued that the jab killed more than this estimated 250K lives ‘saved’.
The globalist oriented medical establishment is trying to set things up for a new plandemic.
***
Speaking of bird flu . . .
Moderna is set to receive $176 million in federal funding to develop a human vaccine against bird flu following outbreaks of the virus in dairy cows across several states, the Department of Health and Human Services announced Tuesday.
The U.S. has documented three cases of humans with bird flu in 2024. All had regular contact with dairy cows. As of July, more than 130 herds across 12 states have seen infected cows.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2024/07/02/moderna-bird-flu-vaccine-outbreak/74277961007/
OBSERVATION - The govt is also set to issue an emergency use authorization - just like they did for the wuhan jab - as one vehicle with which to force this ‘vaccine’ on us. BTW, this is a mRNA-based pandemic flu vaccine, brining all the same potential side effects that wuhan mRNA did.
POLITICAL FRONT –
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
Trump met with Netanyahu yesterday, the first after 4 years.
Trump is also planning on returning to PA for another rally to memorialize the assignation attempt and remember the other victims.
With the 0bama endorsement, harris’ nomination is firmed up. However, the key is the VP selection. IMHO, many of the names will overshadow/outshine harris on the ticket so the effort may shift to others.
***
Congress recessed with no movement forward on the 12 spending bills necessary to keep the country running into the next FY. With the fierce election looming, I expect that they’ll kick it into the post election with a CR.
***
With harris at the helm, observers are monitoring how the actual, physical DNC convention is going to change. Many see the hard core leftist/marxist contingent marrying up with the rabid anti-semitic elements to force a huge left swing in the policy of the party. Some think that the loss of a sizable jewish voting contingent as a result, may force things back towards the middle - at least on paper. The internal civil war in the democrat party between the more moderate, wing and the rising radial wing could actually see violence not only outside the convention center, but inside as well. Could be good popcorn time.
Biden / Harris Watch –
biden threatens a massive push on a wide number of issues before he has to step down. USSC changes, gun control, curing cancer, etc. Many require a constitutional amendment - unlikely in this or any future congress - while others are only popular to the leftist fringe.
Try as hard as they may, the left’s efforts to expunge Harris’s marxist past from the inter webs continues to backfire as numerous groups/individuals are pulling volumes of citations, reports, articles, etc about her.
***
There are some strange observations regarding a perceived increase in the height of biden from recent public appearances. Some may be due to angle of the photograph and placement of biden to others. Other photos rule out such explanations. All has gone to increase speculation that these are body doubles. I’m not sure what to think on this.
Illegal Immigration –
The CBO estimates the immigration surge will create $1.2 trillion in federal revenue over the next decade, mostly from income taxes and spending by the estimated 8.7 million migrants living in the U.S. during that time.
The recent surge in migration across the southern border could help slash the federal deficit by nearly $1 trillion over the next decade, according to a recent report by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.
The CBO estimates the immigration surge will create $1.2 trillion in federal revenue over the next decade, mostly from income taxes and spending by the estimated 8.7 million migrants living in the U.S. during that time. Those same migrants would cost the federal government just $300 billion in health care and other costs, according to the estimate, bringing the net benefit to $900 billion.
https://www.expressnews.com/politics/texas/article/immigration-economy-19596489.php
OBSERVATION - The preventative measures that Trump started to implement were on the order of a few billion dollars. This exploding debt spending was a deliberate act to cripple the US in the long term, forcing us towards a globalist control of our nation.
China –
Observers are noting the increasing trend of China purchasing and locking up strategic resources necessary for a potential global conflict. Everything from food to metals. They are playing the long game.
Russia -
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Russian authorities arrested the Hero of Russia, former Deputy Minister of Defense Dmitry Bulgakov, in connection with a corruption case. He was Deputy Minister of Defense from 2008 to 2022 and was responsible for the logistics of the Russian armed formations, led the work to provide troops with weapons, military equipment, and more.
OBSERVATION - Even heros of Russia are not immune to putin’s wrath.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 80 - 90 degree range and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Drones of different types, including 4 Shahed drones, also a Kh-59/Kh-69 missile were shot down overnight by Ukrainian air defense
According to Ukrainian Military intelligence Ukrainian drones targeted Dyagilevo, Engels and Olenya airfields in Russia overnight
Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Lozovatske village of Donetsk region, west to Avdiyivka.
Outlook —
As noted previously, the Avdiyivka axis is one of the major pushes by Russia. It is increasingly apparent that much of Russia’s success is due to poor Ukrainian leadership in the sector, largely the result of poor planning of troop rotations for instance. Even with the latest announced territorial gain, that gain is still very small and at great cost of men and equipment.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Netanyahu met with Trump
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Heavy fighting continues to be reported from locations in and around Khan Yunis.
Israeli army: One-Kilometer-Long Terror Tunnel in the Northern Gaza Strip was dismantled by the Israeli army. In recent days, a one-kilometer-long Hamas attack tunnel, that had an exit located inside a residential area in Beit Lahia, was dismantled by the Northern Gaza Brigade in cooperation with the Combat Engineering Unit of the Gaza Division and the Yahalom Unit.
Three rockets were fired from the Gaza Strip at the southern coastal city of Ashkelon. According to the Israeli army, one was shot down by the Iron Dome, while the other two struck open areas.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
A rocket was launched by Hezbollah from Lebanon at the border community of Arab al-Aramshe this morning damaged a home. Another four rockets were fired earlier at the Misgav Am area, according to the Israeli army. There are no injuries in the attacks.
The Israeli Army: We targeted Hezbollah military infrastructure in Aita al-Shaab, Kafr Shuba, Hula, and areas in southern Lebanon.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
The US carried out an airstrike on “the position that was used to launch rockets at the US base in Syria tonight. But this was not a counter attack.” US officials are clarifying.
——— FORECAST ————————-
I don’t see any signifiant changes in the Gaza fight. Israel continues to create opportunities for hamas to try to reform, then hammers them as they are doing in Khan Yunis.
Same for Israel’s interaction with Hezbollah and Lebanon. Hezbollah leadership continues to be taken out and Hezbollah exposes its rocket launch sites via retaliatory attacks. The indicators I see still show that any Israeli invasion is many weeks away and that even an August window to start may be passing. All could change if Hezbollah launches a preemptive attack, currently unlikely due to the losses of senior commanders who’s be the ones planning and coordinating that attack.
Misc of Note –
Peraonsl bleat here . . . .
I tend to hold back from reading too much into natural disasters and other events as being omens from God. The bible is pretty clear against reading into such events as omens. Does this mean I don’t believe God can, will and is sending the earth messages to repent - i most certainly do not. I monitor global natural disasters and space events so that I have a base line level of activity that will permit identification of an event clearly delivered by God - and rest assured such an event will be clearly seen as something from God.
Much today is a reporting bias - that is, extreme events have occurred at levels near to seen today, but are only more in the forefront due to the advent of the internet and rapid dissemination of the news. There is further bias seen in the MSM arena associating extreme natural events (predominantly weather ) to the ‘climate change’ angle - as a vehicle to cause fear in the sheeple who cannot discern truth from propaganda.
God has allowed the perversions of humanity to proceed for some periods of time in the past before executing judgements - seen time and again in the bible. For instance. the open taunting of God in the olympic opening ceremonies combined with all the other open, deliberate acts of rebellion not only by France but the world as a whole will be addressed by God’ judgement someday, and likely soon.
Yet the bible indicates that these things will grow to be similar to ‘birth pangs’ warning of the coming judgement and can’t be ignored.
As for now, I watch for the significant change in events as well as clear trends. Not every earthquake portends a rupture of the San Andreas or New Madrid. Not every solar flare is a kill shot. Not every tornado/hurricane is due to ‘climate change’. We must be careful before we assign such an event as a true “act of God”.
What I do see from my perch is that we could be approaching an inflection point. Global conditions on the economy, societal stability, and politics could be thrown completely down given a timely and ‘targeted’ event like a mega quake or other natural event. Location, timing and intensity will stand above previous events, making it pretty clear that the growth of birth pangs has begun. Until then, I watch.