Doing better today, many thanks for thoughts and prayers.
Hunkering down this week for a blast of winter. It can’t seem to make its mind up - lots of snow and cold temps or just some snow and arctic temps. I prefer the first but as the weather goes here in the Redoubt, it is a very fickle thing.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WEF Davos Jan 15-19
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****
German farmers are blocking highways and conducting protests throughout Germany today. They are being joined by truckers around Germany. Polish and Dutch farmers and truckers are also showing support.
They are protesting the increased taxes and regulations that the government is imposing. One of the goals of the government is to put farmers out of business to meet Agenda 2030 targets of the United Nations.
OBSERVATION - Reports that truckers and farmers in Poland and others are joining in support of the protests. Initial indicators are that the German people are supportive of the farmers even though blockages have made their travel very difficult.
WEF/globalist desires to control (limit) food supplies for alleged ‘climate change’ is actually designed to cause famine and deaths that will reduce the human population to what they think is a desirable level - not having anything to do with global warming.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Upcoming events of importance
- 18 January 2023, Atlanta, “Day of the Forest Defender,” protests against the Police training facility being constructed
****
DC U.S. Attorney Matthew Graves is making clear that the DOJ is now going to target Americans who were around the Capitol on J6 but did not enter the building.
OBSERVATION - This would mark a serious escalation in the prosecution of the J6 attendees. It looks to drive a stake into the heart of citizens rights to protest/free speech. If they are successful - and of course the DC courts are fair and just (snark) - citizen pushback will rise.
****
More young Americans are doomsday prepping ahead of the next presidential election over fears of a societal collapse or failed natural disaster response, a survey has found.
Gen-Z, adults born after 1997, is the most likely to be preparing for a disaster with a whooping 40 percent claiming to have spent money on doomsday supplies in the past year, according to a Finder survey.
The survey of 2,179 US adults was conducted from January 9 to February 17 and has a two percent margin of error. Finder - who has been collecting prepping data since 2017 - asked people if they had spent money preparing for emergencies over the last twelve months.
Across all generations, food and water was the most commonly bought prepping item and 20 percent of Gen-Z preppers purchased toilet paper. According to the latest survey 29 percent of Americans spent money on prepping, up from the roughly 25 percent who did in 2017.
Many doomsday preppers said they are taking precautions ahead of the 2024 election because they are concerned it will bring civil unrest, while others worry the government will botch its response to the next big natural disaster.
OBSERVATION - Interesting analysis, particularly GenZ activity.
***
Pro-Palestine protesters vandalize and deface a US Military Cemetery in Los Angeles where 85,000 war veterans are buried.
***
Pro-Palestine protesters have launched a coordinated event and shut down three bridges and the Holland Tunnel in New York City. Over 100 arrested and released about 8 hours later.
OBSERVATION - With no holiday events to disrupt, pro-hamas elements making a lot of supporters by blocking roads in major metropolitan areas. Antifa elements were mixed in for support. The backlash is growing against this method of protest as drivers, already dealing with frustrating city driving and traffic, have to put up with this as well. In NYC there were increasing occasions of drivers becoming violent toward the protestors. However, there were no reports of violence initiated by the protestors. I expect to see the violence escalate if these protests continue.
***
More from the pro-hamas gang. Pro-Hamas protesters attempting to storm the tarmac in Dallas Texas where Air Force One is scheduled arrive. Many arrests and police kept the tarmac secure.
OBSERVATION - That these protestors have to go at the sitting democrat president points, in part, the internal civil war between the marxist left and more establishment / moderate democrats. Now pushing by threat of violence to change US policy towards Israel.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.
Numerous law enforcement along with Secret Service personnel responded to the scene at the White House Grounds in Washington, D.C. After an unauthorized vehicle crashed into the northwest side of the White House Grounds gate, an investigation into a suspicious package is underway. Officials are reporting that one individual has been detained. The driver’s name has not been released and prosecutors had not announced any criminal charges as of Monday evening.
***
The ATF says the explosion at the Sandman Signature Hotel in Fort Worth, Texas was caused by natural gas witnesses inside of the hotel said they smelt something like paint burning before the explosion occurred
RUMINT -The suspect is a 44 year old “migrant” named Sahil Omar who caused the “explosion” at Sandman Signature Hotel in Texas.
Authorities don’t know the motive.
OBSERVATION - The odor placed into natural gas (as well as bottled propane) does not smell like burning paint. This as well as other aspects of this incident are causing some to suspect that this was an act of terror. I’ve not seen any more info on Sahil Omar being sought for questioning, so trying to track that down. What is concerning is the ‘migrant’ (ie illegal) aspect.
IF the cause was a natural gas leak in repairs being made to the kitchen - why is there a ‘suspect’ being named? Something isn’t adding up.
Economy-
Upcoming dates of importance
- The Fed next meets on Jan. 30-31.
*****
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., denounced the secrecy surrounding Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s hospitalization as “absolutely unacceptable” and called for his resignation Monday.
Austin, who ranks just below President Joe Biden at the top of the U.S. military chain of command, has come under intense scrutiny after it was revealed he withheld that he was hospitalized on New Year’s Day from the president and the public for several days.
OBSERVATION - The seriousness of this breach is beyond measure, as evidenced by MSM silence on the matter. Major player in the national command authority, should something of a military threat were to have happened during those days, we could have been taken out. Double standard too in that this former general would not have tolerated similar actions by any of his subordinates.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics – HEIGHTENED ALERT STATUS
Dr. Anthony Fauci arrived in Washington on Jan. 8 to answer questions on how he flipped his position on public policy for masks, how the agency he headed funded risky research in China, and how post-infection immunity was downplayed.
OBSERVATION - Sadly, he will not face criminal prosecution - the deep state has his back. He is vulnerable to civil lawsuits though.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
January 19 - funding for federal transportation programs, housing and food plans and other resources will expire.
February 2 - funding for Departments of Health and Human Services, Commerce, Labor, State and Defense will expire
****
The top Democrat and Republican in the U.S. Congress on Sunday agreed on a $1.59 trillion spending deal, setting up a race for bitterly divided lawmakers to pass the bills that would appropriate the money before the government begins to shut down this month. There are essentially no budget cuts of significance and even a 70 billion add-on. Conservatives realizing Lucy pulled the football once again.
***
A co-defendant in the Georgia racketeering (RICO) case against former President Donald Trump claims the Fulton County district attorney “has engaged in an improper, clandestine personal relationship” with the lead prosecutor overseeing the matter.
In a 127-page filing, including a 39-page motion and dozens of pages of exhibits, Roman is asking the court to toss out the charges against him — and to bar both Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis and special prosecutor Nathan Wade from further involvement in the case.
The Roman motion begins by accusing Willis of improperly appointing Wade, who was also part of the process by which the state obtained the grand jury indictments in the case. The defense seeks a court “order striking the special purpose grand jury report and dismissing the criminal indictment in its entirety against Mr. Roman on the grounds that the entire prosecution is invalid and unconstitutional.”
The allegations of impropriety between Willis and Wade are the secondary argument advanced by Roman’s attorney, Ashleigh B. Merchant.
OBSERVATION - If these allegations are validated - which given the history may well be true, this would strike a blow to her efforts to convict Trump. There is further evidence that Wade coordinated his efforts with the WH.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Dates to watch -
March 7 - State of the union-
****
During a Monday campaign speech in South Carolina, Joe Biden said that the summer of 2020, which saw riots across the nation in the wake of the death of George Floyd, was a “historic movement for justice.”
“After the historic movement for justice in the summer of 2020, I signed the most significant police reform executive order in history,” he told the crowd.
The Insurance Information Institute revealed in the fall of 2020 that property damage claims from the riots had likely surpassed $2 billion, making them the costliest riots in US history.
The Foundation for Economic Education suggested that this total was likely higher, as the $2 billion figure looked only at insured businesses, and 75 percent of businesses are underinsured. Around 40 percent of small businesses have no insurance.
Meanwhile, American cities have been ordered to give more than $68 million to rioters who are said to have suffered injury or infringements on their rights.
https://thepostmillennial.com/biden-says-summer-2020-featuring-george-floyd-riots-was-historic-movement-for-justice?utm_campaign=64487
OBSERVATION - biden in an effort to secure the support of his brownshirt riot squads going into 2024 campaign season. There was no ‘justice’ only anarchy and destruction - all condoned by the regime.
Illegal Immigration –
FOX News is reporting that, President Obrador wants $20 billion for Latin America and he is demanding that Biden give at least 10 million hispanic illegal aliens legal status in America in order to help in curbing the invasion of illegal aliens into the US.
OBSERVATION - Blackmail, pure and simple. biden is desperate to staunch the hemorrhaging poll numbers that are blaming him for the border disaster.
That 10 million has to include those here illegally before biden as nearly 8 million total have crossed during his regime’s time. Most likely some form of green card. Congress will not grant any such level of amnesty so it would be expected that biden would attempt using an executive order to accomplish this - conveniently prior to the elections - in a manner that could afford them to sneak in and vote. The $20 billion would just line the pockets of leftists in central / south america that have been profitably facilitating the illegals migration now.
China –
Important dates of notice -
13 January 2024 - Taiwan general election
*****
North/South Korea –
NK news sources saying that Kim is expecting some sort of nuclear attack from the US, SK and Japan this year.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Jan 1, 2024
With the end of the Ukraine summer offensive and the ongoing winter mud season, Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Russia maintains it attacks to take Adviivka, even in the face of huge losses. Russia continues to launch smaller attacks daily across the front lines.
Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones with the likelyhood of attempting to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.
While Russia has reportedly about 400K of soldiers in the theater, all evidence indicates that they are poorly trained and equipped. Russian forces are increasingly having to rely on 50’s and 60’s vintage tanks, APCs and other vehicles. Russian large assaults continue to be what are referred to as ‘meat’ attacks - throwing large numbers of lightly armed, foot troops at Ukraine defenses in hopes of overwhelming them. These tactics ‘worked’ at Bakhmut but there Russia still had a superiority in artillery support. Concerted efforts by Ukraine to locate and destroy Russian artillery, combined with wear and tear taking systems out and poor/no ammo has generally caused Russia to lose the edge in artillery firepower.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
Russia is believed to be trying to muster a force for a winter offensive, once the soils freeze up and permit cross country maneuver. Focus of such an offensive has not solidified but the most likely candidate for one front is the continued attempt to eliminate the salient at Adviivka.
Logistics –
Russia now using jet powered versions of the Shahed drone against Ukraine.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the single digits to 20s degree F range with on again, off again snow. Lows 0 to the teens.
RUMINT – Reports that Turkey will allow some NATO warships through the Bosporus into the Black Sea.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Today more like 48 hour update
Weather continues to dominate action on the ground.
Sunday Russia fired 59 missiles/drones were recorded.
Shot down:
8/8 Shahed drones
0/4 Kh-47M2 aeroballistic
18/24 Kh-101/55/555 air launched
0/7 S-300/400 ballistic
0/8 Kh-22 anti-ship
0/6 Iskander-M ballistic
0/2 Kh-31P anti-radar
Overnight Ukrainian Air Defenses 🇺🇦 shot down only 18 of 51 missiles (35%) fired by Russia
0/4 or (0%) of Kinzhal Missiles
18/24 or (75%) of X-101 Missiles
0/8 or (0%) of Kh-22 Missiles
0/6 or (0%) of Iskander-M Missiles
0/2 or (0%) of Kh-31P Missiles
8/8 or (100%) of Shahed Drones
Ukraine drone hit fuel reservoir at Oryolnefteprodukt oil depot in Oryol
Kherson Axis -
Ukrainian forces repelled another large scale assault on Krynky today destroying 5 tanks and several armored vehicles of Russian forces. Ukraine has a pretty small force in Krynky but is eating Russian forces in large part due to having control of the UAV airspace permitting identification and targeting of Russian forces early. Second, the heavy Russian Su-34 losses are keeping their air assets out of the fight. Ukraine has also set up excellent defensive points that force Russia to break from tree cover and try to cross a large open field - turkey shoot for ATGMs, which is also loaded with anti-tank/armor mines.
Russian Territory –
In the Sverdlovsk region in Russia, an explosive device was detonated on the railway tracks near an oil depot in Nizhny Tagil. According to Russian media, an explosive device went off under the tank. Another explosive device was found near the site of the explosion.
Damage and injuries in Belgorod by debris as result of air defense activity.
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud. Increasingly cold temperatures will gradually freeze the ground, but this won’t happen for sometime yet.
Expect continued ‘deep game’ action - missiles and drone attacks by both sides on what they consider to be critical targets.
Intel analysts have come up with some numbers as to what the current Russian supply of missiles runs as of January 8, 2024
74 Kinzhal Ballistic Missiles
190 Iskander-M Ballistic Missiles
134 X-101 Cruise Missiles
184 Kalibr Cruise Missiles
104 Iskander-K Cruise Missiles
140 Kh-22 Soviet Anti-Ship Missiles
~828 Long range missiles in total
Now remember, these numbers are an estimate based on usage plus the estimated production capability to replace those launched. It doesn’t include the Shahed drones. At the current rate of fire, roughly 50-100 missiles per day, Russia could sustain these attacks for about 8 to 18 days, longer when mixing in Shahed drones.
Speaking of Shahed drones, the first of Iran’s next version - one with a jet engine replacing the propeller, have been found in Ukraine. The Shahed-238’s significantly greater cruising velocity, will seriously degrade the ability of Ukrainian optically-directed AAGs, which have played a key role in defeating the Shahed-136s. Increased velocity however comes at the cost of range, so their usage will likely be limited to areas closer to the front line unless Russia resumes executing raids from Belarus. They will also be available in fewer numbers due to increased cost and decreased producibility.
Finally, it appears that Russia has fine tuned its target set based on previous attacks. It is using weapon systems that have higher probabilities of success against civilian infrastructure targets - such as missiles against areas lacking Patriot ADA systems and the like. The previous attacks permitted Russia to gauge the Ukraine ADA coverage and permit target / method selection for maximum probably of success.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Israel takes out more Hezbollah senior leadership.
- IDF pulling down forces in N Gaza, focusing more on S Gaza and Khan Younis.
- Hamas released photos of 4 young Israeli women, showing signs of being beaten.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
The leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, calls for Muslim countries to supply weapons to the fighters of the Palestinian Islamist movement, at war against Israel in the Gaza Strip.
NOTE - Haniyeh issued the call while safely and luxuriously bedded down in Qatar.
Hamas release of images of 4 hostage, all young women, is disturbing in that their heads/faces are clearly been beaten and bloodied. In previous releases, Hamas has tried to show that they are taking ‘good care’ of the hostages. This release shows just the opposite.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Major guided rocket production plant discovered underground in Gaza City were Hamas was in the process of creating guided missiles using Iranian technology.
Khan Younis under heavy air and artillery fire as IDF forces continue their search and destroy operations.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Israeli Officials have now claimed responsibility for the strike on Southern Lebanon earlier yesterday which resulted in the assassination of top Hezbollah Commander for the “Redwan” Special Operations Force, Wissam al-Tawil.
An Israeli bombing targeted a car near the funeral site of Hezbollah leader Wissam Al-Tawil in southern Lebanon
Hezbollah announced the targeting of the northern command headquarters of the Israeli army with a drone of some kind. IDF says base took minor damage, but is operating as usual
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
On Monday, the IDF eliminated Hassan Hakashah in Beit Jinn in Syria. He was a central figure responsible for rockets fired by Hamas from Syrian territory toward Israel in recent weeks.
Since the beginning of the war, Hakashah directed Hamas terrorist cells which fired rockets from Syria toward Israeli territory.
The IDF stated “We will not allow terrorism from Syrian territory and hold Syria responsible for all activity emanating from its territory. The IDF will continue to act against any threat posed to the State of Israel.”
“Israel is telling (Syrian President Bashar) al-Assad: you are allowing Iranians and Hezbollah to transfer weapons and entrench themselves - so we will disrupt your lifeline and you will find yourself in a tight spot.” - Reuters
Reuters is reporting that Israel has shifted to directing “more deadly” strikes against targets linked to Iran in Syria
OBSERVATION - Israel is stepping up its targeted attacks on Hamas and now in particular Hezbollah key leadership.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Multiple engagements between West Bank groups and Israeli security forces.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
The official spokesman of ISIS, Abu Hudhayfa al-Ansari, has released a speech condemning Hamas for sacrificing the people of Gaza on the altar of Iran’s “regional project”
***
Germany’s Hapag-Lloyd will continue to divert its vessels away from the Suez Canal and around the Cape of Good Hope for security reasons, a spokesperson for the company said Tuesday.
“We deem the situation still dangerous,” the spokesperson for the world’s fifth-biggest container liner said. “We have daily re-assessments and will have next decisions taken Monday Jan. 15.”
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. They have most of N Gaza cleared and are moving efforts to central and S Gaza.
Israel and Hezbollah continue their dangerous game of chicken, with escalations on both sides. Units coming out of N Gaza for rest and refit combined with deep reserve forces leave Israel still strong for any kind of preemptive attack by Hezbollah. But from the propaganda, Hezbollah doesn’t want to be the initiator of such an attack, as they’ve been working the propaganda preparation as the ‘peaceful’ force, and a preemptive attack would serve to fully justify Israel’s counter attack. With the Gaza operation still several months, at the very least, before Hamas has been rooted out and any remaining hostages freed, I don’t see Israel launching any full on offensive before then. That is unless Hezbollah pulls the trigger first.
Saudi Arabia –
Sec State Blinken meeting with the Saudi Crown Prince at the royal camp in the Saudi city of Al-Ula. Blinken discussed with the Saudi Crown Prince efforts to reduce regional tension, including deterring Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.
Syria -
Reuters, citing intelligence sources - Jordanian planes bomb drug dealers linked to Iran inside Syria
OBSERVATION - The destruction of Syria’s integrity due to the civil war has created a vacuum that many elements are seeking to exploit. This is about the third time in a week that Jordan has attacked Syrian linked drug dealers in S Syria. Illegal drugs have become a serious problem for Jordan as well as Israel and Egypt.
Turkey –
See Ukraine - Rumored reports that Turkey will allow some NATO warships through the Bosporus into the Black Sea.
OBSERVATION - Speculation is that Turkey will allow ‘defensive’ vessels such as mine sweepers to pass. Turkey is already under the microscope due to allowing Russian shipments of arms and material thru the Bosphorus. Reports also that the move may also be linked to Turkey getting F-16s.
Mexico -
See Illegal Immigration above
See, and I understand that desire. I recognize that maybe we have too many people. I find myself crowded, even out here in what used to be the rural areas.
But if I'm them, I would NOT take the 'Murder Option'. I would simply engineer a virus (and they CAN engineer viruses) to cause widespread infertility.
They seem to be in too much of a hurry.
More young Americans are doomsday prepping ahead of the next presidential election over fears of a societal collapse or failed natural disaster response, a survey has found.
Gen-Z, adults born after 1997, is the most likely to be preparing for a disaster with a whooping 40 percent claiming to have spent money on doomsday supplies in the past year, according to a Finder survey.
The survey of 2,179 US adults was conducted from January 9 to February 17 and has a two percent margin of error. Finder - who has been collecting prepping data since 2017 - asked people if they had spent money preparing for emergencies over the last twelve months.
Across all generations, food and water was the most commonly bought prepping item and 20 percent of Gen-Z preppers purchased toilet paper. According to the latest survey 29 percent of Americans spent money on prepping, up from the roughly 25 percent who did in 2017.
Many doomsday preppers said they are taking precautions ahead of the 2024 election because they are concerned it will bring civil unrest, while others worry the government will botch its response to the next big natural disaster.
OBSERVATION - Interesting analysis, particularly GenZ activity.
***
Getting a bigger pile of firewood split as low temps on Sat, Sun and Mon are forecast to be -27, -31 and -26 respectively; all before adding in wind chills that could reach -55.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WEF Davos Jan 15-19
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****
Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry is going to lead the US delegation to Davos with other selected main team players -
- United States Special Representative for Ukraine’s Economic Recovery Penny Pritzker
- Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs James O’Brien
- United States Agency for International Development Administrator Samantha Power
- Senator Chris Coons
Others, including REPUBLICAN congress critters are also scheduled to attend.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Upcoming events of importance
- Jan 13th - prohamas March on DC
- 18 January 2023, Atlanta, “Day of the Forest Defender,” protests against the Police training facility being constructed
****
See Ecuador below as a harbinger of potential illegal issues here in the US.
***
Journalists covering Trump’s federal appeal case were caught on a hot mic making jokes about him being assassinated.
OBSERVATION - I’ve been noting for at least the past year the increase in ‘talk’ by the left of assassinating Trump. Of course the faithful leftist “journalists” are part of that ongoing level of discussion. They seem to glorify the action.
***
Ray Epps sentenced to 1 year probation, $500 fine after telling J6ers “we need to go into the Capitol”
OBSERVATION - When a tyrannical govt sets up two tiers of justice and does so in such an open manner, bad things are going to be happening sooner than later. This ‘sentence’ takes all question away - Epps was a govt plant/agent provocateur. He sure better hope the country doesn’t break down into open civil war because he has a big target on his back.
Economy-
Upcoming dates of importance
- The Fed next meets on Jan. 30-31.
*****
(FO) Apollo Asset Management warned in a recent research report that U.S. banking conditions are worsening as interest rates remain high.
Apollo concluded that several banks – including Morgan Stanley, HSBC, Ally Bank, Regions, and about 30 others – are likely to start reorganizing their balance sheets. This process could get disorderly and spark another banking crisis. Also, banks are the most important funding source for U.S. small businesses, and nearly half of Americans are employed by small businesses. A widespread banking crisis could impact small business growth and hiring.
OBSERVATION - Key observation by FO. There are many factors that are not commonly in the calculations of recessions and current weaknesses in the banking sector are some of them. Besides reorganization issues, many banks are still hurting from the drastic changes in the bond market and have spent last summer / fall restructuring that to firewall the same issues that took out Silcone Valley Banks.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The scandal grows as the Pentagon reveals that US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin had prostate cancer surgery. This is not a ‘simple’ elective surgery that he initially reported.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics – HEIGHTENED ALERT STATUS
More evidence that ‘excess deaths’ are linked to the jab.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
January 19 - funding for federal transportation programs, housing and food plans and other resources will expire.
February 2 - funding for Departments of Health and Human Services, Commerce, Labor, State and Defense will expire
****
House Freedom Caucus members are considering a motion to vacate Speaker Mike Johnson for his collusion with Democrats, following his negotiations on a budget with the democrats that was essentially the same as that his predecessor was working towards. Such a motion will throw the congress and in particular the republicans in the House into serious turmoil. There have been several recent losses of Rep congressmen due to resignations and expulsions, so the margin of majority is even slimmer. A motion prior to passage of the budget bill would increase the likelihood of at least a partial govt shutdown as things would likely hit the breaks during the struggle for a new speaker takes place. The budget ‘compromise’ is the latest in backtracks on his promises, another being the release of the J6 tapes - delayed to blur the faces of participants and essentially hiding all the govt plants (at least 200 FBI provocateurs in one case).
Johnson for his part spent Tuesday answering criticisms, he said it’s “the best” Republicans could hope to get with a narrow chamber majority and a Dem-controlled Senate.
OBSERVATION - The extreme danger that did rear its head the last speakership marathon is the nasty rumor that some republicans threatened to cross the isle and vote the democrat minority leader into the speakership role. That would create great chaos as then with two houses and the presidency, the leftists democrats would be able to put on a full court press to get their kill america agenda passed before the elections - creating more troubles for Trump should he be reelected.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Dates to watch -
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
March 7 - State of the union
****
Some speculation that biden has delayed his SOTU address to March 7 to discern if Trump is winning at poll predicted numbers. At which time biden may withdraw under the cover of the 25th amendment, to allow a fresher candidate.
Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT
US mortgage lender loanDepot confirmed in an 8k filing on Monday that it is the latest victim of a cyberattack that has brought critical systems offline.
“Upon detecting unauthorized activity, the Company promptly took steps to contain and respond to the incident, including launching an investigation with assistance from leading cybersecurity experts, and began the process of notifying applicable regulators and law enforcement.
“Though our investigation is ongoing, at this time, the Company has determined that the unauthorized third party activity included access to certain Company systems and the encryption of data. In response, the Company shut down certain systems and continues to implement measures to secure its business operations, bring systems back online and respond to the incident.”
Illegal Immigration –
See Ecuador below as a harbinger of things to come in the US.
***
New York City kicked students out of a Brooklyn high school in order to relocate nearly 2,000 migrants housed at Floyd Bennett Field ahead of a potentially damaging storm.
In a statement, City Hall referred to the illegal migrants as ‘guests’ and called it a temporary stay.
‘The health and safety of migrants in our care is always a top priority, which is why we are currently overseeing the relocation of 1,900 guests from the humanitarian emergency response and relief center at Floyd Bennett Field due to an updated forecast with increased wind speeds estimated to be at over 70 MPH tonight.’
Students will be forced to ‘remote’ school for the duration.
OBSERVATION - Parents are complaining loudly, but I’ll bet most of them voted for Adams in the recent election. You get what you vote for.
***
Looks like the long postponed impeachment of Mayorkas is about to begin. House Republicans failed in November to pass Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s (R-Ga.) resolution to impeach Mr. Mayorkas, opting instead to refer the resolution to the Homeland Security Committee for investigation.
OBSERVATION - Impeachment will not result in removal unless the Senate convicts - which it won’t do.
China –
Important dates of notice -
13 January 2024 - Taiwan general election
*****
(FO) Bloomberg Economics estimates an invasion of Taiwan will cost the world 10 trillion USD or 10% of the world’s GDP in the first year. A blockade would cost “only” 5 trillion USD, according to their estimate. This is similar to their estimate of the cost of the Global Financial Crisis of 2008. At the same time the U.S. would experience a 6.7% GDP loss and 80% of Asian trade would cease.
OBSERVATION - While Bloomberg focuses primarily on the impacts to the US economy, impact to China’s will be intense, already suffering from serious problems. Another aspect of each scenario is just how much of the current Taiwan industrial base they can capture intact. The invasion scenario is the most dangerous towards that goal, thus increasing the probability of an eventual blockade to obtain their goals. Taiwan elections may clarify China’s methods and timeline.
North/South Korea –
South Korea has officially scrapped the mutually agreed buffer zones in the Yellow Sea due to the recent North Korean artillery drills. South Korea’s military will resume artillery drills and exercises near the land and sea border.
South Korean officials indicated recently that if North Korea continues to threaten South Koreans, the military will react and take action.
Chinese fishing trawlers have mysteriously stopped appearing near Yeonpyeong Island. There are fears that North Korea have warned them to stay away.
South Korea has also signaled that it will restart military exercises which were paused as part of a 2018 security pact with the North, saying it was considering scrapping the deal altogether following recent shows of force by the DPRK.
OBSERVATION - The peace between the Koreas are fast falling apart due to the weak and inept handling by the biden regime. Actions do not indicate that war is imminent, but some of the guardrails are falling that could result in a serious incident that could lead to war.
Japan –
Japanese Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso announced Japan needs a plan to evacuate its diaspora in Taiwan in the event of a conflict.
OBSERVATION - As things are expected to heat up with the impending national election in Taiwan, China threats and US cluelessness, Japan is wisely trying to get a head of the power curve. There is no evidence that China is making any plans to allow other nationals to depart Taiwan in the event of hostilities.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Jan 1, 2024
With the end of the Ukraine summer offensive and the ongoing winter mud season, Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Russia maintains it attacks to take Adviivka, even in the face of huge losses. Russia continues to launch smaller attacks daily across the front lines.
Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones with the likelyhood of attempting to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.
While Russia has reportedly about 400K of soldiers in the theater, all evidence indicates that they are poorly trained and equipped. Russian forces are increasingly having to rely on 50’s and 60’s vintage tanks, APCs and other vehicles. Russian large assaults continue to be what are referred to as ‘meat’ attacks - throwing large numbers of lightly armed, foot troops at Ukraine defenses in hopes of overwhelming them. These tactics ‘worked’ at Bakhmut but there Russia still had a superiority in artillery support. Concerted efforts by Ukraine to locate and destroy Russian artillery, combined with wear and tear taking systems out and poor/no ammo has generally caused Russia to lose the edge in artillery firepower.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
Russia is believed to be trying to muster a force for a winter offensive, once the soils freeze up and permit cross country maneuver. Focus of such an offensive has not solidified but the most likely candidate for one front is the continued attempt to eliminate the salient at Adviivka.
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Russia has been hit with a cold wave that has totally upset winter heating in many areas of the nation. With sub zero temps, water pipes are bursting, heating plants inoperable, gasoline shortages, etc, the locals are getting really upset. Many of the power outages are in and around Moscow - where the favored of the putin regime live, making backlash even bigger.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the single digits to 20s degree F range with on again, off again snow. Lows 0 to the teens.
RUMINT – Biden administration, Ukraine, and Group of 7 (G7) Nations allies held secret talks on 16 December in Saudi Arabia to discuss a peace plan for Ukraine.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground.
Russia continued to make the capture of Adviivka its priority with numerous attacks overnight, with minor terrain gains and heavy losses.
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud. Increasingly cold temperatures will gradually freeze the ground, but this won’t happen for sometime yet.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- SecSt Blinken meeting with Netanyahu.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Israel’s Ministry of Health has alerted hospitals in the north of the country to be prepared to receive thousands of casualties
NOTE - This is an indicator that potential open war is closing fast in the north. Could be based on seeing Hezbollah preparations for retaliation for the recent deaths of numerous senior leaders.
The Washington Post, according to American officials: Blinken is pressuring Israel to reduce the pace of fighting as soon as possible
Blinken tells Netanyahu: There is a need to ensure lasting, sustainable peace for Israel and the region, including by the realization of a Palestinian state
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Unconfirmed reports that Israel is aware of the exact whereabouts of Yahya Sinwar, Hamas’ chief in Gaza, but is refraining from carrying out a military strike because the terror leader has surrounded himself with dozens of hostages as human shields, Israeli media reported on Monday.
Former Israeli military intelligence head Amos Yadlin told Israel’s public radio, Kan, that Sinwar’s location, in the tunnels under Khan Younis in southern Gaza, was known but that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) was holding back from taking action because of his use of the hostages as human shields.
OBSERVATION - This is the expected MO of these vermin, actions that they’ve done in the past. Of course no international cry since these are jewish hostages.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Increasing fighting in central and s Gaza as IDF closes the loop on Hamas and affiliated terror elements. Intel estimates that IDF has rendered a third of Hamas’ forces combat ineffective with the remaining elements suffering from high leader casualties.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Commander of the Southern Lebanon Region of Hezbollah’s Aerial Unit, Ali Hussein, has been eliminated by an IAF aircraft. Ali led dozens of explosive and surveillance UAV terrorist activities against Israel, as well as the attack against the headquarters of the IDF Northern Command yesterday.
Lebanese Foreign Ministry - The Israeli attacks led to the displacement of more than 75,000 citizens from the south
Hezbollah number two Naim Qassem in a speech Tuesday warned that Israel’s wave of targeted killings “cannot lead to a phase of retreat but rather to a push forward for the resistance”
———WEST BANK——————————-
Multiple engagements between West Bank groups and Israeli security forces.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
There have been 127 attacks by Iran-backed proxy groups on U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria since October, says Pentagon PresSec. Nine since Jan 1 2024 alone.
The global coalition air defense intercepted a suicide drone launched by Iranian-backed militias attempting to target the Conoco military base in northeastern Deir ez-Zur
On Jan. 9, at approximately 9:15 p.m. (Sanaa time), Iranian-backed Houthis launched a complex attack of Iranian designed one-way attack UAVs (OWA UAVs), anti-ship cruise missiles, and an anti-ship ballistic missile from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen into the Southern Red Sea, towards international shipping lanes where dozens of merchant vessels were transiting.
Eighteen OWA UAVs, two anti-ship cruise missiles, and one anti-ship ballistic missile were shot down by a combined effort of F/A-18s from USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN 69), USS Gravely (DDG 107), USS Laboon (DDG 58), USS Mason (DDG 87), and the United Kingdom’s HMS Diamond (D34). This is the 26th Houthi attack on commercial shipping lanes in the Red Sea since Nov. 19. There were no injuries or damage reported.
NOTE - This was the largest salvo to date.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. They have most of N Gaza cleared and are moving efforts to central and S Gaza.
Tensions are still high following the targeted hits of key Hezbollah leaders. Actions in the north appear to have lessened, but can pick up at any instant. Increasing indicators that Israel is preparing for a full-on war but any timeline is being held close for obvious reasons.
Houthi barrage towards the Red Sea yesterday should be met with a massive counter strike in Yemen on their bases, storage facilities and launch sites. Is the hospitalization of the Sec Def affecting this actions planning and execution? Besides consuming expensive and in low supply missiles to take out cheap drone/missile systems, Houthi’s aggression also hopes for a lucky shot and hitting a coalition vessel.
Iran –
Videos of the missiles tracks and air defense engagement in the Iranian port of Chabahar have come out. Chabahar is home to some important Iranian military bases.
OSINT observers think this could be an air defense exercise as there was talks on the “The Great Prophet-18” exercise reportedly starting today.
Saudi Arabia –
SA says it still wants to normalize relations with Israel.
Central / South America General-
Ecuador - Civil war alert
Ecuador is facing a security crisis after the escape of the country’s most dangerous criminal, José Adolfo Macías, alias Fito, from a maximum-security prison on January 8. Fito is the leader of the Los Choneros gang. Fito’s escape triggered a wave of violence and chaos in six prisons across the country, where inmates took over the facilities, kidnapped guards, and started fights. The unrest also spilled over to the streets, especially in Esmeraldas province.
Gunfights broke out between the cartel and law enforcement across much of the country. Gunmen attacked a university in Guayaquil, Ecuador with reports claiming they are attempting to kidnap students. The incident comes as a television station crew was taken hostage on live air.
Cartels have started killing random people and police officers all over the country The cartel has begun executing hostages in Ecuador Armed clashes between narcos and the police near the Presidential Palace in Quito.
In Ecuador armed gangs are hunting down and executing police officers live on video.
The president of Ecuador has issued the following announcement
“President Daniel Noboa Azin signed the executive decree declaring Internal Armed Conflict and identified the following transnational organized crime groups as terrorist organizations and belligerent non-state actors: Águilas, ÁguilasKiller, Ak47, Caballeros Oscuros, ChoneKiller, Choneros, Covicheros, Cuartel de las Ugly, Cuban, Fatal, Gangster, Kater Piler, Lizards, Latin Kings, Lobos, Los p.27, Los Tiburones, Mafia 18, Mafia Trébol, Patrones, R7, Tiguerones.”
He has ordered the armed forces to carry out military operations to neutralize these groups
OBSERVATION - This could be a picture of what is coming to the US soon. It is no secret that countries like Venezuela have emptied their prisons and sent them north. The overwhelming numbers of single, military aged males in the illegal population with time on their hands another growing concern. Already, ethnic groups of illegals are getting into brawls over entitlements such as housing, and are increasing causing a crime wave that the local black population is bristling against.
Reality is, cartels already have operations established here in the US and narco violence will be just another tool to intimidate the citizenry and neutralize the over worked and understaffed police forces. Similar violence in Mexico can and likely will spill over into the US very soon and these illegals will be first as foot soldiers.