Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
US Department of State reports that Blinken is in Riyadh to discuss efforts to reach a ceasefire in Gaza that secures the release of hostages as well as work to build lasting peace and security in the region. He’ll also join WEF’s special meeting on global collaboration and a Gulf Cooperation Council meeting
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Campus pro-hamas protests continue with those elements still on campus digging in to deter police as well as to keep (unvetted or non-supportive) journalists out.
Students who’ve been arrested and have been suspended / barred from campus are now facing academic and financial aid blowback (FAFO). Many are pleading for amnesty.
Protesters at Yale University set up a new encampment after a previous one was cleared by police, the student newspaper reported
Rhetoric being spewed at these protest sites continues to shift to the hard left. Although the rallies continue to be filled with the anti-Israel rhetoric and chants, speakers are also using language connected with Marxism, focusing on oppression and oppressors. In some instances the call is to destroy both the Republican and Democrat parties.
In Portland, the protest village is only a pro-hamas feature in name only. Antifa elements have essentially taken it over.
Meanwhile at UCLA, Pro-Palestinian and pro-Israel protesters clashed. The Israeli American Council (IAC) organized the counter-protest. It recently said it had “profound concern” over the antisemitism reported elsewhere, including at Columbia University. The two groups at UCLA remained peaceful until Sunday, Reuters news agency reported, when campus police with batons separated them as they pushed and shoved each other, and traded punches. It was not immediately clear which group broke through the barrier that separated them.
OBSERVATION - The protests are becoming more anti-US radicalized by Antifa affiliated elements. I think that I noted earlier this month, Antifa and the radical socialists have been using these pro-hamas events as recruiting forums, to build up forces for anticipated larger scale rioting this summer/fall. This week may well a make or break period for the occupation forces. Those protests remaining will likely be due to a school administration that condones the activity and keeps police off site - mostly being private Universities and colleges like Colombia. State run schools will likely have the protestors removed with varying degrees of violence. That level of violence likely will be based on the degree of Antifa support and camp followers they have in place.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
USS Roosevelt making port call in Thailand
USS Eisenhower is in the Eastern Mediterranean.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
The RNC is calling for additional secret service support at the Milwaukee convention.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Biden rates as the least popular president in the 70-year history of the data, according to latest Gallup Poll results released this weekend, trumping the previously lowest-rated presidencies of Jimmy Carter, George H.W. Bush, and Richard Nixon.
“With about six months remaining before Election Day, Biden stands in a weaker position than any prior incumbent, and thus faces a taller task than they did in getting reelected,” Gallup’s Jeffrey Jones wrote in his Bottom Line analysis.
Combined with this new CNN poll:
- Trump BEATS Biden 49% to 43%
- Majority say Trump’s presidency was a success
Just 39% say Biden’s presidency is a success
OBSERVATION - Remember, don’t bet the farm on these polls, as they are designed to shape public opinion. In this instance, the opinion may be the reported behind the scenes efforts to replace biden. If so, these may be pretty accurate numbers.
Illegal Immigration –
Border Patrol is confirming that San Diego is now the busiest sector along the southern border as the agents witness on average at least 1,000 illegal entries a day. A CBP spokesperson said that one day last week there were more than 2,000 apprehensions.
Illegal immigrants are basically receiving free TSA pre-check after videos reveal the San Diego airport formed a new line specifically for undocumented aliens who don’t have any identification.
The illegal immigrants are reportedly only asked for basic information and their travel destination or where they are coming from is not recorded. As a result, there is no information on where the millions of illegal aliens traveling by plane end up in the U.S.
“Human smugglers have identified California, particularly the San Diego border sector, as the path of least resistance for illegal immigration,” Desmond continued.
In March, there were 33,784 apprehensions in the San Diego Sector. Since the fiscal year began, there have been 185,469.
OBSERVATION - In the ‘Before Years’, the thought of unvetted illegals getting bypasses to get on US airliners to go where they please versus citizens that have to endure the essentially worthless lines and screening by TSA would be unthinkable. The volumes of illegals flying across America is unbelievable.
China –
China launches its 3rd aircraft carrier.
Fujian has started sea trials. It’s China’s first supercarrier and the most advanced aircraft carrier ever built outside of the U.S. The 316 meter long ship is expected to enter service next year.
OBSERVATION - This is a major step towards modern carrier. Still fuel oil powered, it has standard catapult system versus the ski jump system on the other two. This will permit fully fueled and fully armed jet aircraft to be launched - extending the range and threat of its forces.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.
The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.
When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.
Logistics –
Russia is trying to perfect its Kh-69 stealthy cruise missile, which is an upgrade of the older Kh-59. Kh-69 was still in development throughout 2023, then in April 2024 six of these missiles, launched from a Russian fighter-bomber, were used to destroy a Ukrainian power plant. Ukrainian air defense systems did not detect the incoming Kh-69s because they were launched from Russian aircraft that were on the Russian side of the Ukrainian border and, when the missiles entered Ukraine, they were low to the ground and virtually undetectable by Ukrainian ground radar. It would take an aircraft based ground surveillance radar, like the one carried by the Americans AWACS aircraft, to spot incoming Kh-69s. Ukraine doesn’t have any AWACS
https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htart/articles/2024042801048.aspx#google_vignette
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs continue in the 60-70 range with some local highs into the 80s. Scattered periods of rain..
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine is facing some of the hardest fighting since the start of the war in the easter front areas. “The situation at the front has worsened,” Ukrainian commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrsky said in a Facebook post Sunday.
Ukrainian troops had “retreated” westwards to new defensive lines in a section of the front that runs past the city of Donetsk, controlled by pro-Russian forces since 2014.
Russian Ministry of Defense claims control over Novobakhmutivka village, Semenivka village, west to Avdiyivka.
It is estimated that from recent Russian missile attacks Ukrainian Energy Grid has Lost upwards of 80% of its Thermal Power Capacity as well as over 30% of its Hydroelectric Power Capacity.
Outlook —
The Ocheretyne break through continues to get worse and worse for Ukraine as Russia has shifted a significant force to exploit the success there. The depth of penetration is beyond Ukraine secondary lines of defense. Advance is persistent and even if Ukraine manages to stop it and restabilize the lines, it will cause severe problems in the future.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- ICC threatening Israeli leadership.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
The International Criminal Court (ICC) is preparing arrest warrants for senior Israeli officials for alleged war crimes, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — a revelation that has drawn silence, if not acceptance, from the Biden administration.
Sources told The New York Times the charges stem from Israel preventing delivery of humanitarian aid — which Israeli officials have said they fear just winds up in the hands of Hamas terrorists amid the war started by Hamas’ Oct. 7 terrorist attacks.
Netanyahu reportedly is on the list of Israeli government officials to be issued ICC arrest warrants.
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/icc-hamas-terrorists/2024/04/28/id/1162721/
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed, however, on Friday that no ruling by the ICC would impact Israel’s right to self-defense against Hamas and other terrorist militias.
“Under my leadership, Israel will never accept any attempt by the International Criminal Court in The Hague to undermine its basic right to defend itself,” Netanyahu stated.
OBSERVATION - Absolutely no investigation or proposed war crimes effort against the leadership of Hamas who attacked Israel in violation of a cease fire at the time, slaughtering over 1000 civilians, kidnapping a couple hundred individuals from infants to elderly - killing many of them and refusing the Red Cross visitation.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
IDF continues to strike targets of opportunity across Gaza. Bombing and artillery strikes concentrated in N, Central and S Gaza.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
About 30 missiles were fired from southern Lebanon towards Kiryat Shmona. IDF responded with artillery and air strikes.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces continues to raid numerous areas, arresting terrorism suspects.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
U.S. Central Command announced earlier tonight that it’s forces had successfully intercepted 5 drones over Western Yemen, that were launched by the Houthi.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Jordanian Prime Minister: The Rafah invasion will complicate the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza
——— FORECAST ————————-
Considerable international interest in these last ditch hostage release / ceasefire talks in Egypt. Hamas indicated they are interested - but that is most likely a delaying tactic to interfere with the impeding Rafah operation. Most of the Israeli offers have been made in the past and have been rejected by Hamas.
Iranian rhetoric towards Israel has come down several notches following the Israeli missile strike. Israel’s success here, combined with the ongoing, successful Israel targeting of senior Hezbollah and in some instances IRGC linked officers in Lebanon may have them rethinking strategy. Israel is not playing by the rules they’ve played by in the past - and Iran/Hezbollah may be trying to rethink things. Meanwhile, Israel continues to bleed Hezbollah to death by a thousand cuts.
Bottom line is I expect Hamas to try a bunch more PR stunts, like the video of the captured Israeli to try to sway opinions during the ‘negotiations’. I also expect Israel to continue to take out Hezbollah leadership and key sites.
Reminder - no post tomorrow or Thursday - carpel tunnel surgery. May be limited for a while after that for recovery.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
Ministers from the Group of Seven (G7) nations have agreed to eliminate all coal-fired power plants by 2035.
The countries that are members of the Group of Seven (G7) are Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States, as well as the European Union.
This declaration was made by Andrew Bowie, a UK minister at the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, during an interview in Turing, Italy.
This agreement will not affect China or India. China has the most coal-fired power plants in the world with 1,142 operational plants, and the highest installed capacity of coal power plants with 1,108.91 gigawatts. It is also the largest climate polluter in the world.
India has the second-most coal power plants, with approximately 285 active plants, and the United States has 240 active plants.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/04/breaking-g7-countries-including-united-states-shut-down/
OBSERVATION - This is all about power - no pun intended. Loss of power will disrupt the economies of those involved - giving leverage towards the goal of a great economic “reset”.
This is also easily a scheme for population control by killing off the most endangered by loss of power - the elderly and infirm. The rest of the sheeple will fade as well due to poor health, hunger and exposure to environmental conditions. Speaking to the choir - there is absolutely no amount of ‘green’ energy that can be brought on line to make up for the loss of coal generation - and remember, natural gas plants are close behind on the kill list as well.
NOTE - See “Economy” for projected Texas grid power shortage warning.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Activities became violent on occupied campuses as police moved to remove the pro-hamas - Antifa elements.
A shelter-in-place order was issued overnight due to violent protests taking place at Virginia Commonwealth University, where riots are occurring. With The Cabell Library Building and nearby courtyard have been taken over by hundreds of pro-Palestine protesters. Multiple reports of tear gas, flash bangs, and rubber bullets are being deployed by riot police as protesters hurl items like bottles, wooden boards, and other objects at police.
Meanwhile at Colombia, administration is finally taking steps to expel protestors from school attendance by seizing ID cards, but the protestors have remained in their camp. They expanded the occupation overnight by breaking into the Hamilton Hall at barricading doors and breaking windows. Unconfirmed reports that protestors took an employee of Colombia hostage and is holding him in the building. Additional lawn has now also been occupied by protestors. Earlier in the day, after the most recent deadline issued by Colombia U passed, many school facility members, with matching yellow vests linked arms to ‘protect’ the demonstrators from possible police action.
In Austin, police broke out pepper spray and pellets and flash bangs to remove students from their encampment.
At Yale, displaced students rushed to set up another encampment on a different part of the campus from which they were expelled.
Police disband pro-Palestine protest on University of Utah campus. 17 arrest made. A hatchet was recovered and an officer was hit in the head with a bottle.
An anti-Israel encampment was established on the lawn of Rutgers University in New Brunswick, New Jersey, on Monday. The Students for Justice in Palestine chapter of Rutgers University in New Brunswick (SJP Rutgers-NB) announced in a post on X that the encampment had “started” on Monday and was there to stay until “divestment.”
OBSERVATION - These protests have not reached their high water mark but have a few more weeks to go at this intensity.
The current state of these protests/riots is reaching a state that the national guard may well need to be called up to support police who are being overwhelmed and out numbered at some schools. That is a situation that these core Antifa / communists want as they think it would give them better ‘advertisement’ for their goals and operations. It would also provide the potential for the development of an “incident’ that they could capitalize on.
One point that I’m seeing made is that these protests are happening at the end of the school year. Will that take any wind out of the sails, causing some of the fervency of the current riots to lessen with summer? Possibly, but I think that the Antifa related core leading and funding are going to all that they can to maintain the pressure to influence US elections and foreign policy. Hence my concern over some sort of a false flag that allows the riots to project to other locations and hit like the Floyd 2020 riots.
Economy-
The Electricity Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) warned that there could be a shortfall of power reserves on the Texas grid this week, and ERCOT may delay or cancel planned power outages.
OBSERVATION - Loss of coal plants providing stable supplies as well as degrading natural gas plants in energy rich Texas is coming back to haunt them. Setting themselves up for another major blackout.
(HT/TIK) Some economists are rising the concerns over the return of ‘stagflation” after the recent GDP and inflation numbers came out. Weakened GDP and rising inflation are the main symptoms.
I am not fully on board with this yet, based on just one report. Economists have been all over the board with warnings of hyperinflation, ‘soft landing’, recession/depression in addition to stagflation. One thing in my mind is certain, the economy is sick (inspire of what the regime claims) and any one of the negative scenarios noted above can easily strike. The recent thoughts towards stagflation are in a way an expected outcome of the current high rates set by the fed - deliberately designed to cool the economy (and associated inflation) down. Instead it is leaching the economy while numerous other factors are pushing prices to start increasing agains. If it does break into full fledged stagflation - the democrat present in DC may find itself much smaller after November as it will be hard to hide the facts from the public - who is already onto current obfuscation by the regime.
‘
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
It appears that DC Democrats are starting to worry about the campus scene, and have turned up the heat. Axios reports:
Columbia University’s board is facing new pressure from a group of House Democrats to “act decisively” and end an ongoing pro-Palestinian encampment on its campus or resign, Axios has learned.
Why it matters: Calls for Columbia officials to resign have largely been confined to the GOP, making this a major escalation in Democrats’ rhetoric on the high-profile demonstration.
The group, led by Reps. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.) and Dan Goldman (D-N.Y.) called to “disband the encampment, and ensure the safety and security of all of its students.”
“If any Trustees are unwilling to do this, they should resign so that they can be replaced by individuals who will uphold the University’s legal obligations under Title VI,” the lawmakers added.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2024/04/the-scene-at-columbia-to-be-updated.php
OBSERVATION - Polls are driving the democrat action as the citizenry in general is not favorably inclined towards these protests/riots given the gross anti-semitic nature of the rhetoric combined with the anti-American calls for ‘revolution”. According to recent polling, just 13% of Americans sympathize with Palestine, compared to the 50-70% who said they sympathized with or supported BLM in 2020.
For the democrats, the fissure point of historic support to Israel is hitting the progressive/marxist elements of the democrat party. Such riots are targeting democrats as well as republicans. AOC was heckled at a visit to Colombia for instance.
North/South Korea –
NK is reportedly developing a new short range ballistic missile to target Seoul with as well as to sell to Russia for use against Ukraine.
Phillipines –
A Chinese coast guard vessel collided with a Philippine vessel and sprayed it with a water cannon. Minor damage and injuries to the Philippine ship and crew reported.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.
The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.
When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs continue in the 60-70 range with some local highs into the 80s. Scattered periods of rain..
RUMINT –
Unconfirmed reports that Russia is massing 40,000 troops to attempt to attack and capture Kharkiv. Russian’s failed the attempt after the start of war and were eventually driven back to the Russia border.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Another heavy day of ground fighting with Russian forces pretty well expanding the Ocheretyne breach to the north and south, securing the flanks.
Explosions were reported across occupied Crimea since the midnight. Unconfirmed reports that these are ATACMS strikes.
Russia deliberately hit the “harry potter” castle in Odesa.
Outlook —
Things are getting real bleak in the Ocheretyne break thru. Russia is expanding the width of the salient and securing it all the while continuing to push west. Concerns growing that Russia could begin to pivot to the north more strongly to cut into Ukraine rear areas / logistic routes for forces on the front lines to the north.
Russia’s development of the ‘turtle’ tanks for now appears to be a significant factor in the counter measures against Ukraine drone strikes. The corrugated metal shed built over the tanks so far effectively blocks most drone srikes against the thin top armor of the tanks. They are not completely invincible, but so far it has been effective.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Deadlines being given to Hamas to agree to the current hostage/ceasefire proposal.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
Israel PM Netanyahu told a group of fallen soldiers’ families that the chance of hostages deal with Hamas is “very low” and accused Hamas with refusing to soften its demands such as complete withdrawal of Israeli army forces from Gaza Strip. He also rejected the possibility of ending the war.
***
Pier-building begins: Construction of the floating JLOTS pier in the Mediterranean is underway. The pier will support USAID and humanitarian partners to receive and deliver humanitarian aid to the people of Gaza. USTRANSCOM and USEUCOM support the movement of humanitarian aid
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
IDF continues to strike targets of opportunity across Gaza. Bombing and artillery strikes concentrated in N, Central and S Gaza.
***
The IDF Chief of Staff reportedly approved plans for a major operation into Rafah during a meeting with the IDF Southern Command commander and division and brigade commanders.
***
Israeli officials have stated that they will give Hamas between 48-72 Hours to respond to the current ceasefire deal or else the ground invasion of Rafah will move forward as planned.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued exchanges of fire between IDF and Hezbollah.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces continues to raid numerous areas, arresting terrorism suspects.
Confrontations broke out between rioters and soldiers around the military checkpoint in the Shuafat camp before dawn today
——— FORECAST ————————-
Situation in the north against Hezbollah will continue to be volatile as levels of fighting ebb and flow based largely upon Israeli strikes on senior Hezbollah and IRGC leadership.
IDF is getting closer to kicking off the ground operation into Rafah. The threat to Hamas of 48 - 72 hours marks the earliest operations could kick off. It is in Hamas’s interests to delay this for as long as possible. Increasing evidence that Hamas has either killed or lost control of virtually all the remaining hostages is coming to light. Earlier, Hamas said it couldn’t pull 40 together for an exchange, now it is doubtful that they can even get 30. Hamas now has virtually no hostage cards to play to effectively delay the israeli operation.
Israeli tactics have not been announced - for good reason. However, i think that Israel may first move northward along the Gaza/Egypt border to block both Hamas and refugee movement into Egypt - a major concern of Egypt. Recently IAF has been hitting that zone in probable battlefield preparation strikes. The main search and destroy element would then deploy straight across the Israeli / Gaza border moving northward where other Israeli forces facilitating civilian movement out of Rafah can interdict any Hamas elements trying to flee in that direction as well.
Going back to Hezbollah and Lebanon, it is being reported that Israel has gotten its logistics tail ready for the eventual conflict with Hezbollah. Unless Hezbollah launches a preemptive strike to try to support the last stand of Hamas, I expect that Israel will not turn north for at least two months after the initiation of the Rafah operation - the amount of time Israel has estimated it will take to finish the search and destroy operation. This would free up resources from Gaza for use in the north.
Iran – HEIGHTENED Warning for supported attacks against Israeli and US interests across the globe. Downgraded Apr 20, 2024
Israeli has allegedly carried out an operation in Tehran targeting and eliminating an Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) operative involved in plotting attacks against Jews in Germany, anti-regime media outlet Iran International reported Monday, citing its sources. According to the report, the elimination was carried out with a gun.
Mexico -
(FO) Mexico’s longshot presidential challenger is widely said to have won last night’s presidential debate. Xóchitl Gálvez accused ruling Morena Party candidate Claudia Sheinbaum of being a “narco-candidate.” Gálvez remains down in the polls against Sheinbaum, 51%-26%, but may receive a bump after last night’s debate.
OBSERVATION - At current projections, Mexico may well be continuing to facilitate movement of illegals into the US after their elections and continued status quo with narco terror cartels. Increasing sanctions on China have opened opportunities for Mexico to host new factories and increase local employment - which could take some pressure off their economy.