Mind is still a little foggy today - getting kinda old to pull all nighters. Had a head cold take advantage of the situation as well, now dealing with medicine head too.
FYI - we found the missing persons after a 6 hour search in the dark in the middle of a snow storm. They at least were smart enough to stay with their vehicle, and i’ll leave it at that.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO February 19 to 21, Trans guideline committee.
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****
Farmer protests against EU mandated agriculture reductions continue. I’ve noted this months ago, but is still relevant to the current protests. Ireland is seeking to mandate the slaughter 20% of all cows in order to reduce climate emissions. This equates to approximately 200,000 cows - and devastation to the industry.
Popular tactic continues to be used as Dutch farmers are spraying manure on government buildings.
Increasing reports of empty store shelves in France due to road blockages by the protesting farmers.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Showdown in TX continues. The beacons of Gondor are lit ! !
The Texas Supreme Court has rejected calls to allow Texans to vote on whether the state should become independent.
The Texas Nationalist Movement had submitted a petition to the Republican party demanding the question be posed on the March primary ballot.
But it was rejected by Texas Republican Party Chair Matt Rinaldi, despite being well over the 97,709 signatures required to get a vote added. The petition was submitted with 139,456 signatures.
OBSERVATION - This will not end the effort as the conflict with the feds over the border will continue to be hot button for a long time.
***
One of the markers of a society moving towards a civil break up is the development of governing/war structures. Some are making the case that the flocking of 25 states to the aid of TX is the start of such a development. Granted, no formal or even semiformal “organization’ of an alternative governing body has been created, but the speed to which TX go support to me indicates the governors and state leaderships have already set up channels of communication and response networks. I suspect that this adhoc networking will evolve into an actual ‘shadow’ govt system and that this process can go forward very quickly.
***
The trucker convoy arrived in Quemado on Friday night. The truckers are staying at the Cornerstone Children’s Ranch. People deemed too extreme are being denied entry. Several groups were turned away and that is causing protests against the truckers. Groups are showing up with messages against a number of things. Some protest Black Lives Matter, others protest gays and AIDS. None of their grievances were germane to this border security demonstration.
A group of so-called street preachers holding signs that read, ‘BLM are racist thugs,’ and ‘AIDS: Judgement or Cure’ were outraged after they were denied entry to the Cornerstone Children’s Ranch.
‘You’re worse than Democrats,’ a man named ‘Jim’ yelled into a megaphone across the street from the convoy gathering.
OBSERVATION - I noted earlier that there were agent provocateurs infiltrating this convoy and these are example of just what to expect. Convoy leadership / organizers are holding the line on this to maintain a border issue security message. This raises further concerns of a false flag operation when it reaches Eagle Pass and its first of three major rallies. These provocateurs could try to launch an attack against border patrol or DHS personnel in the ‘name’ of the convoy. Wisely, they are being kept out of the convoy.
Leftist organizations and NGOs probably see border security actions like at Eagle Pass as endangering their gravy train funding to traffic these humans and leftists have no qualms over using violence.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to impending conflict with Iran.
CONTINUED WARNING - impending military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events (superbowl related attacks) or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Dates to watch -
March 7 - State of the union
****
Biden declined an invitation to be interviewed on Super Bowl Sunday. CBS was turned down. It is the second year in a row that Biden declined Super Bowl Sunday interviews.
OBSERVATION - Most likely due to the fact that biden has no mental facilities left to allow an unsupervised and unscripted interview.
Illegal Immigration –
See CW2 on Texas standoff.
***
The U.S. Senate on Sunday unveiled a $118 billion bipartisan border security bill that would also provide aid to Ukraine and Israel following months of negotiations, but the measure faces an uncertain future amid opposition by Donald Trump and hardline Republicans.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said he would take steps to hold an initial vote on the bill on Wednesday. If the bill were to become law, it would mark the most significant changes in U.S. immigration and border security in decades.
House Speaker Mike Johnson put a damper on the enthusiasm, saying the bill would be “dead on arrival” in the lower chamber. “This bill is even worse than we expected, and won’t come close to ending the border catastrophe the President has created,” Johnson said on X, formerly Twitter.
https://www.newsmax.com/us/senate-border-ukraine/2024/02/04/id/1152237/
OBSERVATION - This bill is as vile, if not more, that what has been leaked already. it essentially allows illegal import to be maintained at todays unmaintainable rates. Tosses a bunch of money around to other causes too. Kept under wraps until the last minute then forcing a vote very quickly before the light is fully shown on it. 41 republicans need to support the filibuster. House republicans state that this bill is DOA and will not be brought up for a vote. The fact that Senate republican leadership would endorse this bill is appalling and shows we need new leadership that pays attention to the people, not their wallets.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 2, 2024, closing in on two years of war.
Russia is attempting to seize the initiative by executing a winter/spring offensive across the eastern front. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. Though reports indicate that there have been some limited successes, Russian forces have taken heavy losses. One key objective continues to be the capture of Avdiivak, near Donetsk, as well as terrain lost to Ukraine during the Ukraine fall offensive in 2022. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner that could help expedite any breakthrough and initiate any significant armor / mobile action. These assault axis also appear to be vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes on their logistics trains.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage.
Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.
The Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine. This has forced Russia to redeploy fighter bombers further away from the contested zone and exercise more caution when attacking. Larger aircraft have been forced to alter their operations as well.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
*****
Logistics –
According to OSINT analysts, imagery analysis of Russian bases, almost half of Russian pre-war artillery has been pulled from storage (9,334 pieces of Russian tube artillery). What’s left (9,747) is seen often missing barrels and other key parts.
It is no secret that Russia has been forced to draw deeply upon its storage sites of surplus military equipment. What is telling that remaining pieces are missing barrels and other key parts. Barrels wear out quickly at the volumes of fire Russia has been putting out over the course of the war, necessitating replacement. New barrels suffer from the loss of titanium for strength, making barrel wear out even faster. At the current burn rate, Russia is facing a growing artillery crisis. This crisis has already devolved into Russia now only having a 3:1 superiority ratio - down from 10:1 at the start of the war.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-30 range with scattered snow and rain.
RUMINT –
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels around Ukraine that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.
There are reports popping up that indicate that Russia has prepared 500 tanks, more than 600 combat vehicles, hundreds of howitzers and forty thousand soldiers for the attack on Kupiansk - Forbes
The Russians are reportedly planning to launch a major offensive to make military gains closer to spring against the backdrop of the election process in Russian Federation.
In the face of reported buildup for a larger offensive, more examples of the lack of training these Russian forces have when trying to maneuver armored formations. One example is the recent Russian failure to breach Ukrainian defenses near Vuhledar, they attempted to bypass the town from the north and attack Novomykhailivka. However, Ukrainian counterattacks pushed the Russian forces back by more than 2 km. In another attack, over a dozen tanks and APC got mixed up and in some instances collided with each other. Follow on Ukraine ATGM and artillery strikes took out most of the rest.
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud.
The ability of Russia to launch a large scale offensive at this stage of the war comes with a lot of question marks. The biggest being the simple skills of maneuvering a force on hostile terrain under uncertain conditions. The US Army has Ft. Irwin - the premier training ground that permits Brigade sized units to operate under simulated battlefield conditions against a very savvy OPFOR. Russia has no similar level of intense training, basically throwing drivers into tanks/APC. Second level is the lack of trained and experienced leadership - general level on down. Attrition of officers has been huge - in part to poor comms (which hasn’t been fully resolved either) and the lack of a proficient NCO corps.
Logistics is another hurdle that Russia seems to be prepared to repeat pervious failures with. Mainly road bound, this offensive will face new challenges such as Ukraine drone kill zones. Soft sided logistic trucks will be easy prey to smaller drones, not needing massive explosive charges to take them out.
Finally (for now), this Russian offensive will continue to face a massive, layered system of recon drones, heavy suicide and bomber drones and keyed in artillery. Throw in some of the new weapon systems that should be in country in the coming month, the Russian offensive may well face a serious defeat, but one that sets up a Ukrainian counter offensive.
Poland –
On 2 February 2024, at the direction of the military, the Polish Air Navigation Services Agency published Notam N604/2024. Navigation warning - unplanned military actions related to ensuring national security. This area is a zone along the Ukraine border.
OBSERVATION - Observers are saying that this warning is a result of recent over flights and impacts in Polish territory of Russian drone/cruise missiles. Civilian pilots are to maintain solid contact with control towers in the event of another Russian attack and potential drones/missiles entering Polish airspace - and any Polish response.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Hostage negotiations continue.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 136 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
Hamas leaders abroad and in Gaza are expected to go in a “positive direction” during hostage deal negotiations following a round of consultation, according to reports by the Lebanese Al-Akhbar newspaper on Monday.
The leadership of Hamas abroad has completed a first round of consultations that included the senior officials of the terrorist organization as well as the leadership of the Islamic Jihad and other Palestinian factions.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Reports of more mass surrenders of Hamas and affiliated fighters. Also more reports of Hamas popping back up in N Gaza.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and IDF along the border.
IDF is moving three divisions to the northern border to “reshape the security reality”. Redeployment is meant to provide security for the thousands of Israelis that were evacuated at the start of the Gaza war as a deterrent against any assault by Hezbollah.
Rumint. Reports from Lebanon that Hezbollah put all units on high alert for possible war with Israel.
NOTE - There have been several similar notices of Hezbollah going on high alert since Oct 7. The current situation in along the border doesn’t suggest activity being taken by either side to initiate full battle operations.
Could be related to this following statement -
Israel’s military on Saturday issued its most detailed warning yet to Hezbollah in neighboring Lebanon that it would be “ready to attack immediately” if provoked, as it recounted its actions along the northern border during four months of war in Gaza and made a rare acknowledgment of dozens of airstrikes inside Syria against the militant group.
“We do not choose war as our first priority, but we are certainly prepared,” military spokesperson Daniel Hagari said, adding: “We will continue to act wherever Hezbollah is present. We will continue to act wherever it is required in the Middle East. What is true for Lebanon is true for Syria and is true for other, more distant places.”
———WEST BANK——————————-
Soldiers from the IDF, the Israel Security Service (Shin Bet), and Border Police arrested 33 wanted persons throughout the West Bank, including a man suspected of shooting at security forces, in an operation throughout Monday night, the IDF announced on today.
Arrests occurred in numerous cities in the West Bank, including Hebron, Ein Beit Ilma, and Kfar Beit Omer.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
A lot of action on the Houthi situation, mostly good. First it appears that US / UK forces have stepped up their surveillance of Houthi drone and ballistic missile firing preparations and are hitting many with airstrikes now on a daily basis. Secondly, more strategic strikes targeting ammo, command, control, radar, etc.
Actions against US interests in Syria and Iraq have also been ramping up. After the major bombing of IRGC and affiliated militia sites Friday night, it seem that those strikes did do some good. They haven’t felt that much airpower in a while. However, they are continuing their attacks.
The Iranian-Backed, Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) are claimed that 16 of their Fighters were Killed and 36 were Injured in the Retaliatory Airstrikes led by the U.S. Air Force last night against their Munitions Depot and Base within the Town of Al-Qa’im in Western Iraq.
Iran-backed militias targeted the Kharab Al-Jir military base in northeastern Syria.
This marks the third attack carried out by these militias today in Syria and Iraq.
The Iraqi Al-Nujaba Movement militia has issued a statement, vowing to retaliate against US forces following the US airstrikes last night on Iran-backed militias in Iraq and Syria. The statement mentions that they have several upcoming surprises.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be locally intense across all Gaza as Hamas and affiliate cells are discovered and neutralized as well as of the couple hundred miles of tunnels are uncovered and destroyed.
US response to Islamic resistance and Houthi are just now beginning to reach a level of starting to put the hurt on them. In Iraq and Syria, these militias are still tenaciously attacking US forces, but US is becoming more aggressive in their response and preemptive strikes.
Against the Houthi, there is a seemingly reduction in the number of attacks on shipping using either drones or missiles. There is clearly an increase of US strikes on launching systems preparing for launches. Deeper attacks targeting C3CM, munitions storage and personnel have gradually increased as well.
US strikes are just starting to reach a level of intensity necessary to force a reduction in attacks. The bombing campaign stopped way too short IMHO and should have been kept up for a couple more days and include Houthi targets. But for now, it seems US military has been given a freer hand in prosecuting preemptive attacks on these islamic radicals.
Iran – Potential war with US developing.
Biden in a message to the US House of Representatives - “ The strikes on Syria and Iraq are aimed at deterring the Revolutionary Guard and its militias from threatening our forces and interests. If necessary, I will direct additional measures, including against the Iranian Revolutionary Guard”
Reports that Iran pulled its C2 intelligence ships into ‘safe’ ports operated by the Chinese at the start of the US bombing of iranian militias in Syria and Iraq.
State dept spokesmen do not rule out strikes on Iranian territory in response to Iranian backed militia attacks on US forces.
Central / South America General-
“El Salvador’s Trump,” Nayib Bukele, has won re-election with close to 90% of the vote, only minutes after polls closed.
Bukele in his first 4 years eliminated over 90% of the murders and violent crime in El Salvador thru an aggressive arrest and lock up campaign to get gangs off the streets. The sudden freedom and safe streets that ensued has gained this overwhelming support of his policy.
Leftist, so called human rights groups have been railing against his lock up policies as being inhuman and unjust. Safer citizenry doesn’t care.
Misc of Note –
The second of back-to-back atmospheric rivers battered California on Sunday, prompting the first-ever warning for hurricane-force winds in the state’s history.
California is bracing for what could be days of heavy rains, flooding on roads and knocking out power to nearly 800,000 people, with 97 percent of the state’s population under flood warning.
The current ‘bomb cyclone’ - a term denoting a storm that rapidly intensifies over 24 hours - could dump more than 8 trillion gallons of precipitation on the state.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13044947/California-weather-hurricane-force-winds.html
OBSERVATION - Kalifornia has no average ‘weather’, its weather is that of extremes. Central and southern Kalifornia hopefully made preparations days ago for this growing event. At this stage, damages to infrastructure and key economic points is uncertain. However, recovery from a storm of this magnitude hitting a people that are generally clueless is going to place a strain on the system.
God bless you for caring and for your selfless act of service.
Interesting life there Godzilla... stay safe.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO February 19 to 21, Trans guideline committee.
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****
Buckingham Palace announced that King Charles has cancer and will be continuing to do his duties, but from home and will be postponing public-facing duties. His medical team announced that the cancer was caught ‘early’ and full recovery probable.
No specifics have been released on the nature of the cancer.
OBSERVATION - Charles is one of the bigwigs at the WEF, pushing its agenda in England as well as other commonwealth countries.
This announcement now has brought clarity to rumors I read a number of months back that there was a possibly that Charles may step down soon. Reasons were not specific at the time, but could well have been medically related. Could this be what was rumored back then. Initial diagnosis would naturally precede actual treatment set up.
PR putting good foot forward on his potential recovery, but nothing is certain anymore. He has a number of other medical conditions that may be affected by his cancer treatment, or will make his treatment less effective.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Showdown in TX continues. The beacons of Gondor are lit ! !
Yesterday, a news conference at Eagle Pass with Gov Abbott and 16 supporting governors reiterating the constitutional right for TX to defend itself from an invasion and reiterating support for TX.
***
The U.S. Palestinian Community Network (USPCN), the National Alliance Against Racist and Political Repression (NAARPR), and National Students for a Democratic Society (SDS) called for a “week of action” that started yesterday and will end on Sunday, 11 February.
OBSERVATION - Besides now dropping to being more of a nuisance than a threat, this is an attempt to try to rally passion again for pro-hamas propaganda and leverage against Israeli support by democrats.
***
See Illegal immigration below on the growth of Venezuelan crime gangs in the US.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to impending conflict with Iran.
This warning renewed as of Feb 6, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events (superbowl related attacks) or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
Economy-
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell vowed in an interview aired Sunday that the central bank will proceed carefully with interest rate cuts this year and likely will move at a considerably slower pace than the market expects.
“With the economy strong like that, we feel like we can approach the question of when to begin to reduce interest rates carefully,” he told the news magazine’s Scott Pelley, according to a transcript CBS released.
“We want to see more evidence that inflation is moving sustainably down to 2%,” Powell added. “Our confidence is rising. We just want some more confidence before we take that very important step of beginning to cut interest rates.”
OBSERVATION - Once again, pulling back confidence in an early rate reduction. It is becoming less and less likely that the Fed will be able to affect the ‘economy’ in a favorable manner before the election in a manner that would be favorable to biden.
***
The Wall Street Journal notes Burritos and Big Macs to Cost More in California as Pay Rises
Minimum wage for California fast-food workers is set to rise to $20 an hour in April, a 25% increase from the state’s broader $16 minimum wage. Restaurants including McDonald’s, Chipotle, Jack in the Box and others say they will raise menu prices in California in response, with some McDonald’s franchisees estimating hundreds of thousands of dollars per restaurant in added labor costs.
The National Owners Association, a group of McDonald’s franchisees, estimated it will cost Golden Arches operators an additional $250,000 annually per restaurant, an amount that can’t readily be absorbed, according to an email from the group last September.
https://www.wsj.com/business/hospitality/california-minimum-wage-workers-prices-c3aef6b4
OBSERVATION - Kalifornia will likely feel the biggest pain, but higher costs have spread nationwide as all fast food franchises have struggled post wuhan to get people to work for them. In my world, I’ve pretty much stopped McD’s even for the grandkids after a play time in the park. Kid meals are not unhappy meals. Burger thing has coupons out with big discounts for various combos - that’s where we are headed on a more consistent basis (until the coupons get used up) now. Even a meal at the local Perkins is cheaper than McD’s.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
Feb 8 - The Supreme Court is scheduled to hear oral arguments on the Colorado case.
March - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
***
Yesterday, Colorado presented its case in front of the USSC for the exclusion of Trump from the ballot on the “insurrection” charges.
****
Posting this here because of its political ramifications -
The Senate “bipartisan” border bill (which is more military aid and other pork than border security) is crashing on the rocks of republican public opinion - widely seen as a sellout to the marxist democrat goals for border chaos and tying Trumps hands if/when he returns to the WH.
In the midst of all this comes reports that supporter and instigator McConnell has tossed Senator James Lankford under the bus. McConnell allegedly recommended a NO vote on the supplemental Wednesday in a closed Senate GOP meeting. This follows efforts by McConnell to muster enough Republican support to override an expected filibuster of the bill.
NOTE - Still pending a lot of collaborating information, since McConnell reportedly said to vote NO last week - well before the content of the bill was officially releases and when it was still being reported that he was trying to sway enough republicans to vote YES to over ride the expected filibuster. SOMETHING IS NOT RIGHT HERE, are we being PLAYED?
As of last count yesterday, 19 of the 41 republicans needed to sustain a filibuster have openly come out as voting NO on the bill. If the McConnell rumor is true, he must have added up the numbers and see that the remaining NO votes are coalescing together and his buddy-buddy bill with Schumer is doomed. But the question still remains - what the reports that he was still trying to get the votes necessary to get it passed?
House Speaker Johnson reiterated yesterday that if passed by the Senate, the bill would be DOA upon reaching the house.
I find it very disappointing that McConnell and probably some other republican senators (looking at you Romney) managed to convince Lankford to move forward with these ‘negotiations’ and disappointed that Lankford was stupid enough to agree. Though his seat doesn’t come up for reelection until 2026, he is now facing getting the “Chaney” treatment from Oklahoma state republicans when that time comes.
On the side, it has been uncovered that in a 2010 deposition in the case, given a week after he was elected to his first term in the U.S. House, Lankford testified that he believed a 13-year-old could consent to sex. Is there something else lurking there that McConnell used for leverage to get him to sell out the country and the republicans?
We have not heard the last on this bill, schumer is still planning on a vote on Wednesday.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Dates to watch -
March 7 - State of the union
****
biden in response to Trump’s challenge for early debates “I’d want to debate me too”
Illegal Immigration –
See CW2 on Texas standoff.
***
Gov Abbot in yesterday’s news conference noted that illegal penetrations at Eagle Pass have dropped into the single digits, from thousands per day just weeks earlier.
***
Should cross ref under CW2 as well
The largest growing criminal organization in the world has infiltrated its way into the United States, said an El Paso FBI agent.
The Tren de Aragua, or the “Aragua Train,” gained notoriety after its founding in 2012 by Hector Guerrero, alias “Niño Guerrero” or Warrior Kid, in the state of Aragua located in the north-central region of Venezuela.
The gang has now become a significant concern along the US-Mexico border, Blair said.
A CNN report said U.S. Border Patrol arrested 38 possible gang members between October 2022 and 2023, with two detained near the El Paso border.
FBI Special Agent Britton Boyd with the El Paso FBI highlighted the threat to Borderland communities, emphasizing that identified Tren de Aragua members face prosecution for illegal entry into the U.S.
“The gang capitalizes on its Venezuelan community for entry, primarily engaging in human smuggling and sex trafficking,” Boyd said.
ALSO - NYC facing growth of crimes by Venezuelan illegals forming gangs and conduction robberies - as many as nearly 70 big ones in one week.
OBSERVATION - It was a well know secret that Venezuela emptied its prisons and sent them northward to the US. They are one of the higher percentages of groups entering the country and find an easier route due to Madera “political persecution”. As as these groups continue to take hold, they will expand. I’ve said it many times, local police are already overwhelmed by the surge in crimes, not just the border, but everywhere these locusts have landed. It is going to make rooting the out all the more difficult.
Foreign gangs will be a serious problem should things go sideways. They do not have the cultural affinity as the US gangs do and their reputation is that of being far more ruthless. They will have two power bases - border towns and major urban centers - where particularly latino gangs can blend in or alternate back and forth across the border as needed. International black market guns can and do cross the border, to arm these gangs up. Any SHTF / WOTL scenario, life would become very dangerous and a potential Reconquesta of the south very possible.
North/South Korea –
More speculation on NKs nuclear goals and next steps. While NK has been racing ahead with ballistic missiles that could be used to deliver a nuclear round, the question is has NK actually miniaturized the components into a size small enough to be carried by those rockets? And for an ICBM round - have they developed a reliable reentry vehicle to protect said bomb on terminal approach.
For over year now, the underground test site in NK has been restored with at least one test chamber available and ready for a test. Recent ICBM launches have been the high perigee types - going more straight up than across the globe - so NK can monitor telemetry (they don’t have the Pacific test range like the US does). One of these rockets could loft a live nuke warhead for exo-atmospheric explosion test - and very possibly generate an EMP that could affect SK and Japan.
Lots of ‘what if’s ‘ involved. A likely scenario would be a underground test of the warhead, followed by the exo-atmospheric test.
All this to say that this is an election year, and biden is looking weaker and weaker by the polls as well as in public appearances. They will attempt to leverage this for max effect. Kim knows that Trump is willing to negotiate on some matters, but unwilling to supply the technical military support putin is delivering.
Expanded discussion at link below.
Japan –
US/Japanese joint command exercise actually named China as the enemy and included detailed map of Taiwan. Previous command exercises were conducted against a fictitious opponent over a generic island(s).
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 2, 2024, closing in on two years of war.
Russia is attempting to seize the initiative by executing a winter/spring offensive across the eastern front. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. Though reports indicate that there have been some limited successes, Russian forces have taken heavy losses. One key objective continues to be the capture of Avdiivak, near Donetsk, as well as terrain lost to Ukraine during the Ukraine fall offensive in 2022. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner that could help expedite any breakthrough and initiate any significant armor / mobile action. These assault axis also appear to be vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes on their logistics trains.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage.
Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.
The Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine. This has forced Russia to redeploy fighter bombers further away from the contested zone and exercise more caution when attacking. Larger aircraft have been forced to alter their operations as well.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
*****
Tucker Carlson interviewed putin yesterday. Will be interesting to see the results.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-30 range with scattered snow and rain.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels around Ukraine that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.
Relatives quiet as things are mostly stable. A lot of fighting in the Avdiivak area with terrain on the southeastern margin of the city swinging back and forth in changing control.
Russian Territory –
Blackouts in Rostov, Bataysk and Azov in Rostov region due to technical failure in power grid.
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud.
Stalemate is the general term along the front, with continued higher numbers of Russian attacks trying to achieve momentum.
Some analysts are noting that Russia has readjusted its strategic reserves into four components and deployed them where they can reinforce various sectors with greater ease. This was a major problem during Ukraine’s summer offensive 2023 - Russia was forces to laterally move frontal units to reinforce sectors - stretching out their manning in other sectors - creating vulnerable zones.
More analysis regarding the 40,000 man force being put together along the eastern front. Timing appears to be set for the Russian elections - as a means of showing that Russia is winning and not just in a stalemate / meat grinder.
One last item of interest. I noted yesterday about the 9,334 pieces of Russian tube artillery no longer at storage armories. This number is very close to the reported number of artillery pieces listed by Ukraine as being destroyed. To say that Russia is running out of artillery is not an exaggerated claim.
Belarus -
Lithuania to close two more checkpoints on the border with Belarus – Raigardas and Lavoriskes – on March 1, 2024.
They also decided to limit the movement of people on bicycles and on foot at all checkpoints on the border with Belarus.
OBSERVATION - Belarus has been a major supporter of illegal migrants trying to get into Europe via Poland as well as Baltic Countries. Most recent tactic used by both Belarus and Russia is to send them to the border crossings on bicycles and on foot - some how that is easier than other tactics.
War nearly broke out between Poland and Belarus prior to the Ukraine war over Belarus moving these migrants into crossing places along the border.
Europe / NATO General –
In a Sunday opinion piece titled, “NATO is pushing the Russia-Ukraine conflict toward a ‘world war,’” published by the Global Times, a nationalistic English-language tabloid published by the propaganda department of the ruling Communist Party, noted NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg’s recent visit to the United States in which he spoke about the “readiness” of NATO along with the investment in aid and defense.
“Clearly, this is not just about NATO seeking funds. This is a clear preparation of public opinion to expand the Russia-Ukraine conflict into a world war,” Global Times’ opinion piece read.
OBSERVATION - Sometimes truth is spoken by your enemies. More and more, the talk coming out of European govts / NATO is an expectance of soon war with Russia, and public perception is being adjusted to support such preparations and eventual war.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Hamas reiterates its demand that Israel accept its demands for a permanent cease-fire before any hostage release negotiations can move forward.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 136 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
Efforts to close wide gaps between Israel and Hamas in pursuit of a cease-fire continued in the region where concerns about a wider war with Iran-allied groups remain. A top Hamas official, Osama Hamdan, said they were studying the proposal put forward by the U.S., Egypt, Qatar, and Israel but insist on Israel accepting conditions including a permanent cease-fire.
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/israel-hamas-war/2024/02/03/id/1152173/
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Reports of more mass surrenders of Hamas and affiliated fighters. Also more reports of Hamas popping back up in N Gaza.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and IDF along the border.
According to Israeli Army Radio, 17 missiles were launched from Lebanon towards Israel since this morning
Hezbollah: No negotiations on the southern border (of Lebanon) before stopping the war on Gaza.
NOTE - This would be in regards to Hezbollah pulling back to the Litani River and demilitarizing the portion of Lebanon south of the river to the Israeli border as required by UN resolutions.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
US assessing that it destroyed 80 of the 85 targets it hit during Friday’s wave of airstrikes against Iran-backed militias in Iraq & Syria, per Pentagon Press Sec Maj Gen Pat Ryder. No US estimate on casualties.
Senior U.S. Defense Officials stated yesterday that there is currently no plan for a sustained large-scale campaign against the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) or Iranian-backed groups in Iraq and Syria, but that they are in the process of planning additional retaliation strikes if necessary.
Houthis say they have fired missiles towards two ships in the Red Sea.
A Barbados-flagged, UK-owned cargo ship came under a drone attack while sailing in the Red Sea. It reported being hit when it was 57 miles off the coast of Yemen’s port city of Hodeidah and incurred minor damage on the port side. No injuries were reported.
A ship in the Red Sea was attacked by a number of individuals in a small, speed boat. One of the speed boat passengers fired an RPG round at the vessel, striking it and causing minor damage.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be locally intense across all Gaza as Hamas and affiliate cells are discovered and neutralized as well as of the couple hundred miles of tunnels are uncovered and destroyed.
US must keep the air strikes going against Iranian militias in Syria and Iraq as well as against the Houthi to suppress their attacks and degrade their capabilities. Any let up will only cause them to get froggy again and increase their attacks on US forces and Red Sea shipping.
Iran – Potential war with US developing.
A new report from the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) is sounding the alarm on Iran’s closeness to going nuclear, upgrading its threat level to “Extreme Danger,” the highest of its six ratings, for the first time since the group began following the Iranian nuclear program in the 1990s.
“If Iran wanted to further enrich its 60 percent enriched uranium up to 90 percent weapon-grade uranium (WGU)... it could do so quickly,” the report says.
“[Iran] can break out and produce enough weapon-grade enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon in a week,” it goes on, “using only a fraction of its 60 percent enriched uranium. This breakout could be difficult for inspectors to detect promptly, if Iran took steps to delay inspectors’ access.”
Moreover, using its remaining stock of enriched uranium, the country “could have in total enough weapon-grade uranium for six weapons in one month, and after five months of producing weapon-grade uranium, it could have enough for twelve.”
Although manufacturing the delivery system for the weapon itself could take longer, an accelerated program to develop a simple warhead delivered by ship or truck “could be accomplished in about six months,” signaling Iran’s nuclearization “either dramatically via an underground nuclear test or stealthily via leaks about its accomplishment.”
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-785373
OBSERVATION - This is the big red flag. As the article points out, its one thing to have the concentrated uranium. Its another to create a device that can create an explosion and another to design that bomb to be able to be transported in some manner to its target.
****
US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan has refused to rule out striking targets in Iran in the wake of repeated strikes on Iran-linked groups across the Middle East. Speaking to NBC, Sullivan was asked repeatedly if the US was considering attacks inside Iran.
“Well, sitting here today on a national news program, I’m not going to get into what we’ve ruled in and ruled out from the point of view of military action,” he said. “What I will say is that the president is determined to respond forcefully to attacks on our people. The president also is not looking for a wider war in the Middle East.”
Pressed again on the question, he continued to avoid a direct answer. “I’m not going to get into what’s on the table and off the table when it comes to the American response,” he said.