CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Nov 12, 2024
Residents of Chicago are blasting Mayor Brandon Johnson over the city spending more than half a billion dollars on sheltering migrants, with one telling the Democrat to his face during a City Council meeting that he’s the “worst mayor in America.”
The criticism surrounding Johnson and Chicago’s New Arrivals Mission – which so far has cost the city $574.5 million since its inception in August 2022 – comes as the mayor is trying to overcome a $1 billion budget shortfall by the end of the year. The City Council held a meeting Monday during which residents voiced their opposition to an approximately $60 million property tax increase floated as one way to help close the gap.
They wanted a $300 million increase originally, but that wasn’t going to fly.
OBSERVATION - Illegal immigration is becoming a very hot button issue and Chicago is displaying the push back by the liberals and minorities to the wealth redistribution going to illegals. Similar developing but by Mayor Adams in NYC. Should violent resistance against deportations build, areas like Chicago may break out in inter-minority class fighting. There are already tensions in major cities between older, established gangs and the new, more violent interlopers from central/south america. Fuses are being lit.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
Initial reports that job creation continues to be in the basement. Details coming out.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics
The WEF / globalists wanted it all during wuhan, we came close to giving it.
Consider the vaccine passports alone. Six cities were locked down to include only the vaccinated in public indoor places. They were New York City, Boston, Chicago, New Orleans, Washington, D.C., and Seattle. The plan was to enforce this with a vaccine passport. It broke. Once the news leaked that the shot didn’t stop infection or transmission, the planners lost public support and the scheme collapsed.
On July 26, 2020, the CDC issued a plan for establishing nationwide quarantine camps. Proving that while things were bad during COVID, even worse was planned. People were to be isolated, given only food and some cleaning supplies. They would be banned from participating in any religious services. The plan included contingencies for preventing suicide. There were no provisions made for any legal appeals or even the right to legal counsel.
It was called “Interim Operational Considerations for Implementing the Shielding Approach to Prevent COVID-19 Infections in Humanitarian Settings.”
Who are these people who would be rounded up? They are “older adults and people of any age who have serious underlying medical conditions.” Who determines this? Public health authorities. The purpose? The CDC explains: “physically separating high-risk individuals from the general population” allows authorities “to prioritize the use of the limited available resources.”
This sounds a lot like condemning people to death in the name of protecting them.
https://brownstone.org/articles/the-cdc-planned-quarantine-camps-nationwide/
OBSERVATIONS - More details at the link. This plan was similar to those implemented in Australia and attempted in other WEF/Globalist compliant nations in the world. Only by God’s grace that he clear ineffectiveness of the wuhan jab cut this and other totalitarian actions off from full implementation.
Will we ever see the perpetrators of these policies ever face justice - doubt it. The swamp/globalists will do what is necessary to protect these key minions.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Increasing calls by democrats for biden to issue blanket pardons for many in his administration that will be facing scrutiny for their actions during wuhan, lawfare and general attacks on the American people.
Biden / Harris Watch –
I don’t think biden and his handlers are finished yet with their attempts to tie up the govt to thwart Trump.
Cyber attacks/warfare – Moderate ALERT as of Oct 20, 2024
(FO) Chinese hacker group Salt Typhoon is still present on U.S. telecommunication company networks, and it is “impossible for us to predict a time frame on when we’ll have full eviction,” according to Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) Executive Assistant Director Jeff Greene.
China –
China bans exports of gallium, germanium, antimony, and other key high-tech materials with potential military applications to the United States — AP
OBSERVATION - China has been working for year to corner the market, now it is beginning to pay off for China.
***
Taiwan’s defense ministry said on Tuesday it is watching the movements of a Chinese aircraft carrier and assessing China’s military activities as security sources said Beijing could launch new war games as soon as this weekend.
China has a strong dislike of Taiwan President Lai Ching-te, whom it calls a “separatist”, and sources have told Reuters it could launch new drills to coincide with his trip to the Pacific this week which includes visits to Hawaii and Guam.
China has deployed close to 40 vessels in the region, including a Chinese aircraft carrier group led by Liaoning in the East China Sea as well as other naval and coast guard boats in the South China Sea.
https://x.com/IndoPac_Info/status/1863933029389144513
OBSERVATION - These maneuvers are likely to simulate a blockade of Taiwan - the primary action many believe China will implement to force reunification.
North/South Korea –
Still sorting out the mess in S Korea yesterday.
President Yoon said he was imposing martial law to protect the country from “anti-state” forces that sympathized with North Korea. Yoon claimed that the National Assembly’ s 22 impeachment attempts of government officials and reduction of government budget amounted to “an anti-state activity that foments treason.” Yoon said the emergency martial law was necessary to “protect free Republic of Korea and eliminate the pro-North Korean, anti-state forces.”The embattled leader is in a deadlock over a budget bill, dogged by corruption scandals and investigations into his cabinet members.
The military then announced that all parliamentary activity was suspended under martial law. But neither that nor the heavy security presence stopped thousands from gathering in front of the assembly in concern and fury.
Lawmakers then managed to get 190 past the barricades, enough for a quorum, and voted unanimously to cancel martial law and initiate impeachment proceedings.
Yoon shortly thereafter cancelled martial law. The heads of departments and senior secretaries within the South Korean presidential administration have resigned following the recent implementation and subsequent lifting of martial law. (Yonhap)
Yoon is facing calls for his immediate resignation.
OBSERVATION - Out of the blue and a complete surprise. The danger phase is past, now waiting for the collapse of his administration to be finished and new elections started.
What surprised me was the speed at which the military responded. Suggests that they were tipped off to the move.
Phillipines –
People’s Liberation Army Navy warships and China Coast Guard cutters fired water canons and rammed a Philippine maritime patrol near Scarborough Shoal on Wednesday in the latest spat between the two countries in the South China Sea.
Philippine Coast Guard flagship BRP Teresa Magbanua (MRRV-9701) and BRP Cabra (MRRV-4409) joined the Bureau of Aquatic Resources and Fisheries offshore vessels BRP Datu Pagbuaya (MMOV-3003) and BRP Datu Sanday (MMOV-3002) in a patrol to support fishermen in the vicinity of the disputed South China Sea maritime feature. Commodore Jay Tarriela, Philippine Coast Guard Spokesperson on West Philippine Sea Concerns, said in a statement that four China Coast Guard cutters with the pennants 5303, 3302, 3104, 3304 and the People’s Liberation Army Navy Type 054A frigates Xianning (500) and Yuncheng (571) met the combined civilian maritime agency mission.
RELATED
The Philippine Coast Guard deployed two patrol vessels to protect Philippine fishermen at Iroquois Reef following reports of harassment from a Chinese Navy helicopter at the disputed South China Sea maritime feature.
BRP Melchora Aquino (MRRV-9702) and BRP Cape Engaño (MRRV-4411) were sent to Iroquois, known to the Philippines as Rozul Reef and China as Houteng Jiao, after Philippine fishermen recorded a low-flying People’s Liberation Army Navy Z-9 helicopter on Nov. 28. It is unclear if the aircraft was deployed from a warship or one of Beijing’s artificial island bases in the region. The use of helicopter downwash was previously seen at Sandy Cay 3 when a Z-8 flew directly over a civilian scientific mission.
OBSERVATIONS - China continues bullying in areas the are contesting as theirs - though global entities have ruled otherwise. A dangerous game of chicken.
Russia -
*****
Russian warships and submarine fired hypersonic Zircon missiles, and launched a Kalibr cruise missile during exercise in the Med Sea on December 3, - Russian MoD says. The exercise involves over 1,000 military personnel, 10 ships and support vessels, 24 aircraft, including Russian Aerospace Forces MiG-31I fighters with Kinzhal hypersonic missiles and the Bastion coastal missile system
Many saw the deployment of vessels for this exercise out of the Syrian naval base as a response to the fighting.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures cooling to the 20-30s and scattered snow/rain
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 29 Shahed-type drones overnight. Explosion was reported in Shostka of Sumy region, Russian aircraft launchd Kh-59 guided missile towards the city
Russia still pressing the fight all along the eastern front.
Summary —
As noted yesterday, the war is coming to a cumulation point where either Ukraine taps out or Russia runs out of resources to throw at the offensive to maintain the momentum. Both are facing a determined Trump whose stated one of his primary goals is to stop the fighting.
Europe / NATO General –
***
GEORGIA - Day 6 of protests in Tbilisi: Riot police use water cannons & tear gas to disperse crowds outside Parliament. Protesters launched fireworks at the building and again clashed with special forces. Several arrests have been made as tensions keeps rising.
OBSERVATION - Showing no signs of letting up, protestors continue to press their protests/riots.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- No escalation in fighting since yesterdays Hezbollah rocket (mortar?) attack and Israeli reprisal.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Netanyahu on Lebanon: “We are currently in a ceasefire, I note, a ceasefire, not the end of the war. We have a clear goal to return the residents, to rehabilitate the north. We are enforcing this ceasefire with an iron fist, acting against any violation, minor or serious.”
***
PM Netanyahu thanked US President-elect Trump for issuing a toughly worded statement demanding that hostages held in the Gaza Strip be released ahead of his January 20 inauguration. “Hamas is required to release the hostages. President Trump put the emphasis in the right place, on Hamas, and not on the Israeli government, as is customary (elsewhere),” Netanyahu said. Other Israeli leaders also hailed the pledge that there would be “hell to pay” in the Middle East unless hostages held in the Gaza Strip were released ahead of Trump’s inauguration. Israeli ministers lined up to thank Trump for his hard-hitting words.
***
Israel issued a direct warning to Lebanon on Tuesday and said it will no longer distinguish between Hezbollah and the country should the tenuous cease-fire with the terrorist group collapse.
“There will no longer be an exemption for the state of Lebanon,” Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said, according to the Times of Israel, adding that Jerusalem will “show maximum response and zero tolerance.”
“[Beirut must] authorize the Lebanese army to enforce their part, to keep Hezbollah away beyond the Litani [River] and to dismantle all the infrastructure,” Katz continued in reference to one of the 13-point agreements in the Wednesday cease-fire that said only the Lebanese army will operate in the area south of the landmark river.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
IDF increases operations in Jabalia camp, N Gaza.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Some IDF demolition of captured Hezbollah sites.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
The Israeli army takes responsibility for an airstrike near Damascus yesterday, killing Hezbollah’s liaison with the Syrian Army, Salman Jumaa. According to the military, Jumaa was a “key” figure in the relationship between the Syrian Army and Hezbollah, enabling weapons to be transferred
———WEST BANK——————————-
Three Palestinian gunmen planning an “imminent terror attack” were killed in an Israeli drone strike in the northern West Bank this morning, the Israeli army and Shin Bet say. The trio, members of Hamas, were struck near the Palestinian village of Aqabah. After the strike, the Israeli army says troops raided the site and captured four weapons
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Ceasefire still holds in spite of yesterday’s flair up. Key point is Lebanon is being called out for failing to even begin to disarm Hezbollah and remove them from regions south of the Litiani River - as the current agreement and UN 1701 demand. This will be a sticking point in the future given Hezbollah’s deep penetration into the military .
Threatening the Lebanese govt and in turn the people is not a good strategy as it would turn them away from rejecting Hezbollah and joining with them against a common enemy - Israel.
Imminent threat of missile exchanges between Israel and Iran still on hold. Seems Iran is trying to ramp its nuclear program up a notch, an act Israel is very aware of and will likely take a shot at once Trump is in office.
Action in Gaza continues at a significantly decreased intensity. IDF generally shapes the conditions and ‘allows’ Hamas et al to regroup in desired spots, the moves in quickly to eradicate them.
The only element of the “resistance” really still in the game are the Houthi’s. The Iranian backed militias in Iraq and eastern Syria have largely moved west to reinforce Assad’s forces
Iran –
US Treasury: New Iran-related sanctions include dozens of entities, including oil tankers and shipping companies
Syria -
Rebel forces continue to take ground. On the southern front, rebels have move forward across a wide area east of Hama as well as pressing forward the west.
The battle of Hama is continuing to shape itself and its not going well for the pro-Assad forces. Rebels have deepened their pincer action to surround the city on the east and west sides. Rebels have advanced within five kilometers of Hama City and likely seized key defensive terrain in the area.
In the north, columns of the Turkish led SNA (Joint Forces) have reached Manbij and are being deployed to the frontlines with SDF held Manbij.
Pentagon: In eastern Syria today, US aircraft destroyed multiple weapons – including truck-mounted MLRS and a T-64 tank – after Mission Support Site-Euphrates, a key US base in the area, came under mortar fire. Pentagon PresSec says incident was not linked to situation around Aleppo in NW Syria.
OVERALL OBSERVATION - Assad’s efforts to reinforce his military in the Hamas region has done some, but not enough, to slow the rebel advance. The apparent coordination on a strategic and tactical level strongly suggest that the various rebel groups have been working up towards this for a while. Most likely Turkey is providing the backbone for the direction of the fighting. Assad forces are facing soon encirclement of Hama by the rebels and will likely be forced out of the town, yielding it with little fighting.
Turkey –
Turkish Presidency: President Erdogan held a phone call with his Russian counterpart Putin regarding Syria
Misc of Note –
Warning to Christmas Shoppers Situational awareness is critical as thieves are watching for potential victims at night time as they leave the store and head for their cars, where they will be distracted loading them. This permits the thieves to approach relatively undetected and strike fast.
Keep your head on a swivel. Shop with another person who maintains surveillant of the area during vehicle loading. Some store provide a security person to escort shoppers to their cars. Finally, the ‘horn’ button on fobs can be hit to cause the car alarm to go off, brining unwanted attention to the thieves and potentially chasing them off.
Carry is good too, but if you are unaware of your surroundings, the quick strike by the thieves can neutralize your carry advantage.
https://brownstone.org/articles/the-cdc-planned-quarantine-camps-nationwide/
I'm blessed to live in Florida - DeSantis would have fought this tooth and nail.
Globalism / Great Reset –
The UNRWA is one of the worst international organizations in the world.
Funded by Western governments, it subsidizes terrorist organizations, delivers supplies to them, employs many terrorists, trains them in schools, and hides tunnels for Hamas on its properties.
Since 10/7/2023, there has been an undeclared war between the UNRWA and Israel in the political sphere. Israel exposes UNRWA corruption, and the UNRWA defends its practices, attacks Israel using mostly baseless accusations and Hamas propaganda, and egging on antisemites around the world to pressure Israel to give up its war against Hamas.
The UNRWA has many backers around the world, unfortunately including the Biden administration, and now it is arguing that Israel should be prevented from defending itself in the public sphere as well as its physical territory.
OBSERVATION - Remember, censorship (or rather the emphasis on the control of ‘misinformation’) has been a key topic at WEF and related global gathering this past year, and will likely become an amplified message in 2025. So it shouldn’t surprise anyone that an arm of the globalist octopus is calling for censorship of any and all criticism - because that criticism has been found time and again to be true.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Oct 20, 2024
Hanukkah: Dec 26 - Jan 1
***
United Healthcare CEO Brian Thompson was shot in the chest Wednesday morning outside the Hilton hotel in Midtown Manhattan in what is believed to be a targeted attack.
Thompson, 50, arrived before 7 am for a conference when he was shot at multiple times by a masked man who police say was waiting for him to arrive, the New York Post reported.
The assailant calmly executed Brian Thompson and then took off down 6th Street on a bicycle.
OBSERVATION - Though the news appears to be drifting a different cause for the murder, one thing that came to mind were the reports of numerous CEO in Europe that were assassinated by marxist radicals. For the life of me I couldn’t pin those events down any further, years or specific details. But this could be developing in a Trump pro business environment. Unfortunately, we are in a wait and see mode.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Dec 5, 2024
Maintaining the HIGH Threat watch because of the potential for biden regime actions that could throw the economy into a tail spin in order to hamstring Trump’s agenda
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics
Dr. Peter Hotez is one of the most prolific liars about COVID in the world.
A big fan of medical totalitarianism, Hotez helped fund the gain of function research that likely led to the outbreak of COVID-19, and he was among the most vociferous critics of the lab leak theory, which is almost certainly correct.
. . . on MSDNC, Hotez went on a rant against Trump and his appointments, and while doing so he made comments that one might or might not interpret as a threat.
—
“PETER HOTEZ: “We have some big picture stuff coming down the pike starting on January 21st”
… Names Nearly a Dozen Viruses …
“All that’s going to come crashing down on January 21st on the Trump Administration””
https://x.com/TheChiefNerd/status/1864367493675950142
—
In that light, I am keeping an eye out for stories about novel viruses popping up, or unexplained appearances of rare viral diseases. Not because I believe Hotez intends to release them, but because I don’t trust him not to.
https://hotair.com/david-strom/2024/12/05/is-this-a-threat-n3797592
OBSERVATION - The thought that wuhan was a bioengineered plague is credible and who knows what other bugs have been in the petri dish in multiple biolabs world wide. Nut jobs like him are the type that could facilitate the release of new plagues as a revenge against Trump - a very scary thought.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Joe Biden’s White House is reportedly considering issuing “preemptive” pardons for certain Democrat and government officials who President-elect Donald Trump suggested could be investigated when he takes office in January.
Top White House officials are “deeply concerned” certain government officials, like January 6 committee members and public health officials like former NIAID Director Anthony Fauci, “could find themselves facing inquiries and even indictments” when Trump returns to power, according to Politico.
Those who could face exposure include such members of Congress’ Jan. 6 Committee as Sen.-elect Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) and former GOP Rep. Liz Cheney of Wyoming. Trump has previously said Cheney “should go to Jail along with the rest of the Unselect Committee!” Also mentioned by Biden’s aides for a pardon is Anthony Fauci, the former head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases who became a lightning rod for criticism from the right during the Covid-19 pandemic.
OBSERVATION - biden’s blanket pardon of hunter has opened the flood gates of speculation he will expand upon it for others who’s actions are at the least, very questionable and at the worst very criminal and treasonous. Some view the POLITICO’s article a test balloon.
IMHO, this is a very short sighted effort that will blow up on them, especially for the mid term elections. It would in essence confirm that their behavior WAS illegal and that would further undermine any remaining credibility of the democrat party and MSM.
Biden / Harris Watch –
US President Joe Biden fell asleep during his meeting with the presidents of several African nations.
Illegal Immigration –
Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, D-Nev., said in a post on X that “President Biden has the power to protect immigrant families, and I’m calling on him to use it.”
She pointed to the use of Temporary Protected Status (TPS), which is a status administered by the Department of Homeland Security that allows nationals who are living in the U.S. already to obtain work permits and be shielded from deportation.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/dem-senator-urges-biden-extend-protections-some-illegal-immigrants-before-trump-admin-nobody-safe
.
OBSERVATION - There is a growing desperation on the left to find some means to thwart the deportation plans of Trump. One nasty rumor built upon the blanket pardon of hunter could also be a blanket pardon of the 12 million who broke federal laws entering the country. Such action would seriously impact deportation proceedings. So far that idea is still rumbling around in the background.
North/South Korea –
South Korea’s opposition parties on Wednesday submitted a motion to impeach President Yoon Suk Yeol, who is facing pressure to leave office hours after he ended a short-lived martial law that prompted troops to encircle parliament before lawmakers voted to lift it.
Impeaching Yoon would require the support of two-thirds of parliament for the motion and then the backing of at least six Constitutional Court justices.
The motion, submitted jointly by the main opposition Democratic Party and five smaller opposition parties, could be put to a vote as early as Friday.
***
The United States, amid the situation with the introduction and cancellation of martial law in South Korea, has postponed joint exercises on nuclear deterrence against North Korea, Yonhap reports.
Russia -
*****
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov at the meeting of OSCE in Malta threatens that ongoing “Cold War” could become “Hot”
***
Russia is in a pickle. Its commitments to the Ukraine war have essentially drained their strategic flexibility to respond to other ‘crisises’
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Rumors that Russia is pulling forces out of Africa and redeploying them to Syria to bolster Assad’s regime.
Economic Impact –
India, once a major purchaser of Russian military arms and materials, has started to cancel a lot of orders. This is in large part due to delivery delays by Russia, diverting production to the Ukraine war. India also sees the poor performance of those systems in Ukraine and is looking at other suppliers for more reliable delivery and quality.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures cooling to the 20-30s and scattered snow/rain
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Overnight, Russia launched a missile and drone attack. Two Iskander-M ballistic missiles and 44 Shahed drones were launched of which 30 drones were shot down and 12 suppressed by electronic warfare. One more drone returned to Belarus.
OSINT analysts are noting that the Russian use of glide bombs has nearly ceased, making them wonder if this is due to weather considerations or the destruction of the munitions in an ammo dump strike by Ukraine. Those documented uses were in the Sumy region.
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
Russian forces have renewed their push against the Ukraine forces. Mostly attacking from the western side of the pocket. Ukraine claims to have repelled the attacks.
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russia maintains high tempo of attacks in this region. Attempting to exploit advances from earlier this week.
Summary —
News on the war continues to focus on moves to come to some sort of a ceasefire - perhaps even before Trump enters office. The US, however, has opened the floodgates to push as much money and arms to Ukraine as possible to prevent Trump from canceling the effort.
putin continues to play the nuclear card and seemingly has shut down the use of ATACMS and British/French cruise missiles against Russian territory. This has brought some observers to look at Ukraine’s home built systems, principally the upgraded Neptune missiles. Some are thinking they are stockpiling them in order to launch a massive attack some time soon.
putin’s shut down of the use of these western weapons has allow his army to continue to focus on the meat grinder in the Donbas region. Moscow considers the massive casualties versus terrain gained to still be acceptable.
Europe / NATO General –
GEORGIA - Mass arrests of oppositions and protest leaders and searches in the offices of opposition organizations in Georgia today.
Arrests in Tbilisi by now: Nika Gvaramia, leader of the “Ahali” party; Gela Khasaia, member of the Coalition for Changes; Zviad Tsetskhladze, leader of the youth movement “Dafioni”;“Lelo” members Vepkhia Kasradze and Vasil Kakhelashvili
OBSERVATIONS - Arrests of movement leaders can in some instances squelch a movement. Other times it can back fire, creating martyrs for the cause and increase support for the movement. Blow back is especially true if the opposition has a deep bench so that arrests of public figureheads do not impact the continued organization of protests. I think the last point is in play here and that the protests have withstood heavy handedness by the ‘dream party’ govt and will be further provoked by these arrests.
***
FRANCE - The French government collapsed about yesterday after a “No Confidence” Vote in Parliament. The historic vote of no-confidence was passed against Prime Minister Michel Barnier in the National Assembly. It marks the first time a French government has been ousted by a no-confidence vote in over 60 years.
French MPs including the left and the far right combined voted 331 out of 574 in favour of the motion to pass, exceeding the minimum mark of 288.
The vote rose from fierce opposition to his proposed budget for 2025 from opposition parties such as the left-wing alliance New Popular Front (NFP) and Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN).
OBSERVATION - This will certainly throw a wrench into France’s leadership role in Europe. May set up a new, rigorous political fight between the right and the left.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Israel strikes Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, while maintaining a marginal ceasefire.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Qatar has resumed Hamas-Israel mediation in efforts to secure truce: source with knowledge of Gaza talks
Evidence shows that the bodies of six Israeli hostages recovered a few months ago were killed by their captors and not by any airstrikes.
The US govt has assessed that Hezbollah is working hard to reconstitute its forces as quickly as possible during the current ceasefire, both in recruiting new fighters as well as replacing arms and munitions destroyed in the fight.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
IDF focusing on Hamas holed up in Kamal Adwan Hospital in Beit Lahia, northern Gaza Strip.
The IDF reported that an airstrike in the Khan Younis humanitarian zone yesterday that targeted senior Hamas commanders involved in terror activity.
Palestinian media claim the strike killed over 20 people and shared footage allegedly showing the incident. The IDF noted secondary explosions at the site, confirming the presence of weapons.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
IDF made targeted strikes on identified Hezbollah elements, many in the process of trying to set up rockets to fire on Israel.
The Lebanese army continues to essentially be AWOL in disarming and removing Hezbollah forces as required by the ceasefire agreement (as well as UN resolution 1701)
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Saudi Foreign Minister held discussions with Palestinian Prime Minister on the latest developments in the Palestinian territories and the efforts being made in this regard
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
The situation in Lebanon remains relatively stable but advantageous only to Hezbollah elements in the northern half of the country where the attempts at reconstituting the forces like are occurring - and out of range/targeting by Israel under the current ceasefire. Hezbollah is in such bad shape that they told Syria that they cannot move forces to Syria to help the Assad regime.
In Gaza, Hamas and affiliated continue to get caught in ‘humanitarian’ zones still thinking that it will provide a shield from Israeli attacks. They obviously haven’t learned that it won’t stop Israel from destroying them.
Iran mostly has been reduced to just bleating a lot of words about Israel, Syria and other enemies. This would be more of a deliberate effort to lay low, lick their wounds and ratchet up the nuclear program. Unless they can develop a deterrent to Israel, they are wide open to Israeli attacks at times and places of their choosing.
Iraq -
The Prime Minster of Iraq, Mohammed al-Sudani has been authorized by the House of Representatives to take the decision to enter the war.
al-Sudani has reportedly mobilized three army brigades and two PMF brigades to the Syrian border, stressing Iraq won’t remain a “spectator” amid escalating regional conflicts.
OBSERVATION - I’ve not seen word that these forces have been deployed yet. They should be making second thoughts. These Iraqi forces are not battle hardened or tested, going into a maelstrom of better motivated and experienced fighters. This potential action is driven more by Iranian-supported factions in the govt, (Shia) versus the predominantly Sunni (same as the rebels) population of Iraq.
As is is right now, Iraqi forces will be too little, too late to impact the fight significantly.
Lebanon -
The Lebanese army mobilized forces to secure its border with Syria in an effort to prevent the fighting there from spilling over.
Syria -
The battle for Hama is essentially over. Rebel forces are pouring into the city and Assad’s forces are pulling out. There are still skirmishes in some of the adjacent cities. Russian and Syrian aircraft at the military base were evacuated as rebel forces advanced and have now taken control of the airfield. Rumors of helicopters rescuing Assad’s officers, leaving the troops without leadership.
Rebel forces have been pushing towards key Russian air and naval bases on the Mediterranean coast. Reports of Russian naval vessels off the coast of Syria, launching cruise missile strikes against rebel forces to the north of Hama.
In N Syria, Turkish-backed groups were killed and others were injured during fierce clashes with the Manbij Military Council in the southern countryside of Manbij and with the Tabqa Military Council forces in the Deir Hafer area.
Lebanese sources report Hezbollah does not currently intend to send fighters to northern Syria to support the Syrian army there, three sources familiar with the Iran-backed group’s thinking told Reuters on Monday
Unconfirmed, but likely reports of mass defections with hundreds of Assad’s forces joining the Rebel.
Hundreds of Assad regime soldiers, security personnel, and police defectors are now registering with the rebels’ Interior ministry under the salvation government.
OBSERVATION - Assad’s forces continue to collapse in the face of the rebel push. What i find interesting is the coordination of the rebels in sealing off the city on three sides prior to the direct assault on it. Takes coordination at a higher level. These are not rag tag units on a rampage, but have a carefully designed higher leadership. The same was noted when rebels initially breached Hama last week and pulled back - avoiding overextending its forces and risking being taken out.
Loss of Hama has complicated Russian land routes to its naval base in Tartus and the whole logistics network of the Syrian army in general. If the rebels continue to press southward, the westernmost portion of Syria will be completely cut off.
The next logical objective is Homs. It is the major logistical hub in the region and would complete the sealing off of the coastal area of NW Syria.
After this would be about a 150 mile march to Damascus. Rebel forces would need to get their logistics ramped up for that length of essentially open terrain. So far they could pull resources (food, water, fuel) from the many villages and towns they have taken. South of Homs, the villages are much smaller and less likely to be able to provide the logistics seen further north. Russian/Syrian aircraft so far have done little to intercept logistic trains of the rebel forces
The trend is not looking good for Assad who may see his regime totally collapse soon.