Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Three B-52 nuclear bombers arrived in Finland, in response to Moscow’s threats to use nuclear weapons.
Biden / Harris Watch –
For anyone who thought biden would have kept his word, I’ve got a bridge to sell you.
Biden’s pardon for his son, Hunter doesn’t just relate to his Federal Firearms Charges, but any Federal Crimes he committed between January 1st of 2014 until December 1st of 2024. It covers ALL federal crimes Hunter committed or may have committed for a period of 10 years. The unprecedented extent of blanket amnesty indicates that there’s more to hide.
NOTE - This may backlash in the future. If brought into any trial, hunter will be unable to plea the 5th on matters during this period. He can’t because he has been pardoned for ALL federal crimes during that period - he must testify else face new charges not covered by the pardon.
OBSERVATION - biden has nothing to lose as his term comes to an end. This attitude becomes very dangerous when considering the other actions he can still take on things like climate change, economy, global crisis, etc. No one can stop him as congress will do nothing, nor any other of the checks/balances of the constitution. Not only to make the transition more difficult but the first year of Trump’s term an even greater challenge.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures cooling to the 20-30s and scattered snow/rain
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 52 Shahed-type drones overnight
1700+ Russians casualties yesterday.
Summary —
The overall results of the daily crawl of Russian forces into Ukraine has taken its toll -
This fall has been grim for Ukraine. According to our assessment, between 1 September and 30 November, the Russians captured over 1600 km2 in Ukraine, and retook roughly 500 km2 in Kursk. The rate of advance accelerated every month, despite the Russians suffering heavy losses.
https://x.com/emilkastehelmi/status/1863261737358664119?s=61&t=Ca4dYBe3FZLWI7Zi7HkShg
Interesting in-depth analysis.
Putin will continue to press the attack, regardless of the losses, in order to have greater leverage when ceasefire and peace talks eventually come around.
Europe / NATO General –
GEORGIA - Protesters in Georgia gathered again outside the Parliament building in Tbilisi following yesterday’s violent crackdown, local media report. Demonstrations are also taking place in Batumi, Poti, Kutaisi, and other cities across the country.
In Tblisi, the level of violence has grown. Protestors are now using molotov cocktails to attack security forces.
OBSERVATION - The reaction against the ‘dream party’s’ actions are beginning to increase. The questions I have is who has more of the loyalty of the police - the govt or the people. In an eastern Europe setting, the police tend to back the govt, so one can expect even more escalation in the violence.
A key point is that protests are expanding to other cities - indicating that things are gaining traction and forcing the govt to stretch its resources out into other areas.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Ceasefire continues to essentially hold
- Dead hostage identified, a dual citizen Israeli-American.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Jerusalem is constantly monitoring the situation in Syria, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday, after Sunni jihadist rebels over the weekend took control of Aleppo, the country’s second-largest city.
“We are determined to both protect the vital interests of the State of Israel and preserve the achievements of the war,” Netanyahu told Israel Defense Forces recruits at the Tel Hashomer induction center in Ramat Gan.
***
The IDF on Monday confirmed that Capt. Omer Neutra, 21, died on October 7, 2023, and his body was taken by Hamas back to the Gaza Strip.
New intelligence information that came to light allowed a special military commission of rabbis, scientists, and lawyers to finally confirm his death around 14 months later, despite long-standing suspicions that he was dead.
Neutra was a lone soldier from New York, serving as a tank platoon commander in the 77th Battalion of the 7th Brigade.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
IDF picked off some of the few remaining Hamas et al leaders.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
IDF is continuing to destroy discovered Hezbollah facilities / bunkers in areas it is occupying in S Lebanon. Daily reports of bulldozers and explosions used to destroy them.
Hezbollah elements were targeted and destroyed when identified by Israel as violating the terms of the ceasefire.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
An Iranian flight suspected to be ferrying arms to Hezbollah was blocked by the Israeli Air Force over Syria overnight between Saturday and Sunday, The Times of Israel has learned. IAF fighter jets flew up to the Iranian plane over Syria and ordered it to turn around, and it did a short while later
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
On Sunday, the Houthi terrorist organization claimed it launched 16 ballistic missiles and a drone at a US Navy destroyer and US carrier ships Stena Impeccable, Maersk Saratoga, and Liberty Grace, claiming “accurate and direct” hits.
CENTCOM acknowledged the Houthis targeted US destroyers and US-flagged ships in the Gulf of Aden, but the attacks were successfully defeated and no damage or injuries were caused.
OBSERVATION - This marks a continued escalation in Houthi actions over the past week.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Israeli vigilance denied Iran’s attempt to smuggle in arms/munitions to remnant Hezbollah elements in Lebanon. Iran is focusing on the near threat in Syria by mobilizing militias it supports in Iraq and eastern Syria to the battle zone. It has few other assets it can deploy because it doesn’t want its regular army units entangled in Syria.
Israel continues aggressive vigilance of Hezbollah actions and has taken actions to protect its forces. The Lebanese Army is still essentially AWOL when it comes to interdicting and disarming Hezbollah, so it falls on to Israel.
Israel has also been busy destroying remaining Hezbollah sites in occupied S Lebanon.
Gaza sees continued search and destroy operations liquidating elements of Hamas that pop their heads up. Hamas seems more interested in stealing food shipments of late, rather than engage israel. .
The chaos in Syria has Israeli focusing on potential scenarios should conditions there lead to a fall of the Assad regime. Israel has security concerns given the anti-Assad coalition is also very anti-Israel and could end up going after Israel. It is doubtful they would help Hezbollah who they’ve been fighting against for years now.
Iran –
Iranian Foreign Minister: We confirm Iran’s full readiness to provide all kinds of support to the Pro-Assad forces.
Iranian Foreign Minister: We support the ceasefire in Lebanon and enhancing the delivery of aid to the Gaza Strip
Syria -
Regional media has cited HTS sources to say they’ve “begun marching towards Hama, successfully capturing six towns and villages in the countryside, including Morek, which lies along an important highway connecting central Syria to the north.” The Syrian government has denied that many of these towns or villages were captured, amid conflicting social media reports.
Syrian sources affiliated with the Syrian opposition report that the rebels took control of the Syrian Ministry of Defense laboratory complex in Safira, south of Aleppo. This is a site that has been attacked many times by the IDF in recent years due to the production of various weapons there.
Syrian rebel forces captured General Malik Hassan Makhabir, a key figure in Assad’s military production near Aleppo. The arrest weakens the regime’s grip in northern Syria and threatens its strategic and Quds Force operations.
It remains unclear whether the Kremlin will be able to deploy additional assets to support Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime given the high tempo and operational requirements for Russia to continue conducting operations in Ukraine – the Kremlin’s priority theater.
To demonstrate then degree of chaotic here is a list that was compiled by OSINT observers of who is participating.
Here all the groups involved in Syria Right now:
1.Syrian Arab Army (SAA)
2.National Defense Forces (NDF)
3.Hezbollah
4.Fatemiyoun Brigade
5.Zainabiyoun Brigade
6.Russian Armed Forces
7.Wagner Group
8.Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)
9.People’s Protection Units (YPG)
10.Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)
11.Free Syrian Army (FSA)
12.Syrian National Army (SNA)
13.Ahrar al-Sham
14.Jaysh al-Islam
15.National Liberation Front (NLF)
16.Islamic State (ISIS/Daesh)
17.Turkish Armed Forces
18.Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)
19.Druze militias
20.Local tribal forces
https://x.com/osint613/status/1863307088589635978?s=61&t=Ca4dYBe3FZLWI7Zi7HkShg
After this above was compiled, it was being reported that the pro-Iranian Iraqi militia operatives of AL Hashd AL Shaabi have entered Syria to join the fray.
Unconfirmed reports indicating that Javad Ghaffari, senior IRGC Quds Force commander—known as the “Butcher of Aleppo”—been deployed to Syria. Ghaffari was one of the first IRGC commanders to be deployed to Syria in 2011+. He formerly commanded the IRGC HQ in Aleppo & later became one of the main commanders of the Iranian contingent of IRGC and Basij in Syria, as well as IRGC proxy forces. In 2021, he was expelled from Syria by the Assad regime for a “major security breach of Syrian sovereignty” after reportedly planning attacks against the US. Ghaffari serves as the head of IRGC’s Intel Org’s Special Ops Division.
https://x.com/kasraaarabi/status/1863334504158712109?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
The Syrian Arab Army appears to be prioritizing securing Hama Province before undertaking any major defensive operations in Aleppo Province. The regime fortified defensive positions north of Hama City on December 1
***
Heavy U.S. airstrikes overnight, against Iranian and Iranian-backed sites near the town of al-Mayadin in Eastern Syria; with A-10C “Warthogs” and other assets have targeting a communication center, barracks, and several other military sites.
Over 50 Iranian-backed militants were killed, and at least a dozen military trucks and Technicals were destroyed yesterday in the Deir ez-Zor Governorate of Eastern Syria, after a convoy entering from Iraq was targeted by several A-10 “Warthogs”.
OVERALL OBSERVATION - With all the players in action, order of battle tracking has got to be a joy.
One major strategic aspect of the action is that it seems that Turkey is poised to exploit a further southward presence into Syria. Some out there think this is related to reestablishing the caliphate - in this instance by force.
It looks like the next big battle will be for Hama city. Yesterday it was reported that rebels breached the city but then pulled back. Looking at some tentative mapping, it seems the rebels saw that they were over extending and needed to bring further reinforcements to face the reinforcements Syria was bringing in on the other side. Syria either stops the offensive at Hama or else it faces potentially losing the more strategic city of Homs further to the south.
In the midst of this, the US has taken advantage of those pesky Iranian backed militias that have been taking shots at them all these years to unleash the dogs of war - A10 - on troop clusters moving to the fighting in the west. US/Coalition forces may see a decrease in sporadic attacks in the short term.
Thanks
Christmas decorations are up and the holidays officially are here.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Nov 12, 2024
A federal appeals court has ruled that an order in King County, Washington, barring U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) from using a Seattle-area airport to deport illegal immigrants from the country is unlawful, affirming a lower court’s summary judgment and clearing the way for the removals to continue.
Judge Daniel A. Bress of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit wrote in the Nov. 29 opinion that a 2019 executive order issued by King County Executive Dow Constantine that prohibited the ICE deportation flights was unlawful. The ruling identified two primary legal violations: discrimination against federal operations under the supremacy clause of the U.S. Constitution and breach of a World War II-era instrument of transfer agreement governing the airport’s use.
OBSERVATION - This article bridges both CW2 and Illegal immigration. More so, it shows attempts by state/local liberal govts to block deportations. IMHO, the defenders of illegals are attempting to use sanctuary tools that have become out of date and popularly opposed by the majority of the citizenry. 2019 arguments not carrying over well into 2024/25.
Efforts like this can be seen to increase over the coming year (s)
***
(FO) The California State Assembly is considering two bills that would give the California Department of Justice (CDOJ) $25 million for Trump administration-related lawsuits. California Attorney General Rob Bonta called the $25 million a “down payment” to bolster CDOJ’s legal teams, which would “be ready to file cases within 24 hours of an action from the Trump administration.”
OBSERVATION - Another step towards potential efforts to essentially cede from the union, but in a less direct way.
***
Forward Observer notes - “A popular left wing resistance website issued a call for activists and anarchists to gather around the country for “Festivals of Resistance” on the weekend of 18 January 2025, days before the Presidential Inauguration.
The all-call is intended to help groups and individuals begin organizing before Trump takes office, when the author says that organizing will become more difficult.
Organizing activities will include educational workshops on activism, security, and direct action, among other topics; and opportunities to strategize and network ahead of operations once Trump takes office.
OBSERVATION - They also note that this activity indicates a difficulty in generating passion for direct action and will be a gauge by which to estimate further actions in 2025.
Other than these plans, the current drivers of protests are pro-hamas and the growing potential for anti-deportation events. The latter has the greatest potential for violence as Antifa et al can tap into the illegal base essentially for foot soldiers.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics
Congressional report out on the wuhan plandemic and it confirms the called claims of misinformation and conspiracy theories.
POLITICAL FRONT –
***
Part of the blow back over biden’s blanket ( covering nearly 11 years) pardon of hunter is the justification for pardoning the J6 participants from the DoJ’s witch hunt.
***
There is rising rumbling from the left for biden to issue a blanket pardon to Jack Smith and the DoJ lawyers who were involved with the lawfare actions against Trump.
IMHO, this would confirm that they did illegal things as part of their efforts to take down Trump and that it was a partisan effort. I would expect similar calls for other sectors of the govt to be coming out as well.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Biden explained his reversal by claiming that Hunter’s prosecution was politically motivated–by Biden’s own DOJ. However, biden also claims his DoJ is apolitical and not moved by political actions.
Which one is it?
Commentators indicating that the pardon has essentially stripped the democrats of the moral ‘high ground’ in the debate for govt reform.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures cooling to the 20-30s and scattered snow/rain
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 22 Shahed-type drones and 3 Kh-59/69 aviation guided missiles near Kryvyi Rih overnight
Fighting continues to be intense all along the eastern front.
Russian losses per 03/12/24 reported by the Ukrainian general staff
+1780 men
+8 tanks
+22 AFVs
+23 artillery systems
Personnel losses continue to be 50-70% higher than earlier this summer. The reported 1780 figure now is the new general daily average, up from approximately 1100.
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
In Kursk region Ukrainian forces have repelled 15 Russian army assaults, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports. No reports of any success by Russian forces.
Summary —
The fight in eastern Ukraine may be approaching an end game scenario. Numerous reports from the Ukraine side on the inability to recruit soldiers and poor morale, evident from the progressive losses of the past months. Now Zelenski hinting at ceding captured terrain in any peace plan.
Putin seeing success in cowing NATO from increasing key support as well as his maintained continuous attacks on the ground. Russian demands for surrender are strengthening in the face of the ongoing, but bloody, successes on the ground and geopolitical.
To top this off, both sides are anticipating Trump’s effort to stop the war, granting further Russian incentive to capture as much territory as possible.
OTOH, Russia is fast approaching a wall of its own in being able to sustain combat. The war effort has pulled many out of the manufacturing sector, hurting the economy. Sanctions have hurt broad sectors including military production. Need for bodies evidenced by the large numbers of N Koreans being brought into the theatre.
2025 looks to be the year the realities of the war is going to force a stop.
Belarus -
New record: 151 drones flew into Belarus in November, at least 3 were shot down
According to Hajun_BY, at least 148 Russian kamikaze drones of the Shahed type and 3 reconnaissance drones of unknown type flew into Belarus in November. Over the month, of the 151 UAVs:
• 82 returned to Ukraine and Russia;
• 66 disappeared;
• 3 were shot down by the Air Defense Forces of Belarus.
OBSERVATION - over the past year or so, Ukraine has devoted a lot of effort to develop EW methods of defeating the drones. The major one seems to be GPS jamming, preventing the drone from accurately piloting its way to its target and instead being ‘spoofed’ into believing the alternative coordinate data it is receiving. Russian has been doing similar to defeat advanced US supplied missiles that rely upon GPS as well.
Europe / NATO General –
NATO Secretary General: We are not discussing inviting Ukraine to join the alliance
***
GEORGIA -
Tensions escalated in Georgia: clashes again erupted between protesters and special forces as authorities mobilize reserves to bolster security services. Despite crackdowns, streets remain packed with demonstrators. Police are deploying tear gas heavily against the crowds.
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1863695183264530889?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
Protests continue to increase in other towns throughout Georgia.
OBSERVATION - There are no signs at this time that these protests will be ending any time soon. Whether or not this will develop into a full blown ‘color’ style revolution is yet to be seen.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Ceasefire strained following Hezbollah rocket attack against N Israel and Israeli retaliatory strikes.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Trump: “If the hostages (held by Hamas et al) are not released by January 20th, whoever holds them will pay a heavy price. Whoever holds the hostages will receive a stronger blow than anyone in the history of the United States.” Release the hostages now”
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
IDF hit numerous targets in and around Gaza City with air and artillery strikes.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Israeli army: Hezbollah fired two rockets towards Har Dov area, no casualties. Hezbollah confirms it fired rockets towards Israel’i positions following “repeat violations initiated by the Israeli enemy,” and warns they will retaliate with more rocket fire if Israel responds to the latest 2 rockets.
Lebanese media report multiple IDF airstrikes in southern Lebanon, following Defense Minister Israel Katz’s warning of retaliation for a Hezbollah mortar attack on an IDF border position earlier this evening.
IDF Spokesperson:
“ The IDF conducted extensive strikes tonight, targeting terrorists, multiple rocket launchers, and Hezbollah infrastructure across Lebanon.
The IDF has struck 30 Hezbollah terror targets tonight including launch sites and Hezbollah infrastructure, and the launcher responsible for firing rockets toward Mount Dov from the Reaz area in southern Lebanon.
These rocket launches constitute a clear violation of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon. Israel demands that Lebanese authorities uphold the agreement and prevent Hezbollah from carrying out hostile actions from its territory.
Israel remains committed to the ceasefire understandings but will continue to act decisively to protect its citizens. The IDF stands ready to carry out further operations as necessary.”
Top Israeli security officials informed Israeli media that the IDF is prepared for the “high likelihood” of a full breakdown in the “so-called ceasefire which Hezbollah has consistently and blatantly violated.
As a result of the forceful Israeli strikes in response to Hezbollah rockets - there was the start of another exodus of southern Lebanese from their homes, sparked by fears of the resumption in full combat.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
International attention is being forced onto the fighting in Syria.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Israel’s strong response to Hezbollah provocations may or may not cause a full breakdown of the ceasefire. The response may have caught Hezbollah by surprise, given that they were probably going by previous ceasefires. Hezbollah has been placed in a very difficult situation, having the snot kicked out of it by Israel and now having its forces facing the wrath of rebels in Syria. Whether or not Hezbollah continues to poke the bear against Israel given the situation in Syria and inability of substantial support from Iran is yet to be seen.
Some reports out of the Israeli govt have indicated that the ceasefire was a stop gap until Trump took office anyway and don’t expect it to last long.
Speaking of Iran, they are facing a two edged catastrophe in Lebanon and Syria. This will keep them very occupied from potential missile attacks against Israel in the near term.
IDF continues search and destroy operations and now they appear to be moving those efforts further south into Gaza City and central Gaza.
Iran –
Iranian Foreign Minister: Doha may host a meeting next week involving Qatar, Iran, Turkey and Russia to discuss the situation in Syria
Syria -
RUMINT - Bashar al-Assad has reportedly reached out to Israel asking for help to remove the jihadi threat in Syria.
In return, he has offered to move the IRGC and their proxies out of the country.
***
There are four major areas Syria and its allies are being stressed.
First is the main rebel push on Hama. Recent OSINT suggests that rebels are working to encircle the town from both the east and west sides and achieving some success.
The second is a push westward north of the Hamas fight, toward the Med Sea. This axis threatens to cut of a significant area of Assad controlled territory south of Idib.
The third area that is developing is the Deir ez-Zor region in eastern Syria.
Khasham pocket is now under control of the SDF. Statement of Deir ez-Zor Military Council Command: The Deir ez-Zor Military Council of the Syrian Democratic Forces announced that it has taken control of 7 villages. The deployment of forces to these villages was carried out in response to the calls of the local population against the increasing threats posed by ISIS by exploiting the developments in the west of the country. The SDF has been receiving considerable air and artillery support from the US and Coalition forces in the area. While not directly engaging Assad supporters, the region has been a hot bed for Iranian backed militias who do support Assad and ISIS who is affiliated with the rebels.
The fourth is growing unrest and potential incipient rebellion in the eastern countryside of Daraa, south of Damascus, in support of the operations of the rebels in the north and the overthrow of Assad.
OBSERVATION - Seems Assad has been able to reinforce his hold on the country for the time being. Pro-assad forces are still at a disadvantage in that the rebels have been able to maintain the initiative and so far appear to be tactically as well as strategically out maneuvering them.
The fight for Hama could be the watershed moment for both sides. Will the Assad forces regain some confidence and stand and fight, instead of fleeing as they have? Will the rebels maintain the apparent unity of command that has marked the course of their operations.
If Hama stands, the rebels could lose support and the offensive die down. If it falls, then Homs is next on the hit parade and a VERY important town strategically.
Black Swans -
A newly-discovered asteroid currently designated COWECP5 is expected to impact Earth’s atmosphere over Siberia, Russia at around 16:15 UTC (08:15 PST) on December 3, 2024. This is the 11th predicted Earth impactor on record – and the 4th so far this year.
OBSERVATION - On top of all the geopolitical chaos and wars, one thing hang out there that necessitates alertness and preparedness - natural disasters. This asteroid is expected to burn up in the atmosphere. Earth history notes that many others have not.
Earthquake, floods, fires, storms, etc are things that need to be kept in the mix for preparedness as they can hit unexpectedly.