We have won a battle, but not the war.
The threat to Trump’s life remains high, from internal and foreign agents.
CW2 / Domestic violence - HIGH THREAT - up dated Nov 5, 2024
Maintaining higher status in the face of a Trump victory - see below
The Black Rose Anarchist Federation, a far-left extremist group, has released a guide on how to use Trump’s second term as a way to recruit, radicalize and send out trained extremists to shut down the ability of the future administration to carry out its promises of governance. ( Ngo)
https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1854353490132529301?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
***
(FO) An estimated 100-200 protestors affiliated with Columbia College Faculty Union (Chicago) and other groups marched and gathered outside Trump Hotel & Tower in Chicago, Illinois.
A couple dozen activists at New York University held an anti-Trump march, which was trailed and monitored by uniformed police officers. A short video of the march shows the protest may be linked to Revolutionary Communist Party, USA (REVCOM). REVCOM continues to publicize the “REVCOM Corps,” groups of revolutionary vanguard
Forward Observer is also noting Far Left and Antifa-affiliated blogs have also started calling for mobilization.
OBSERVATION - These efforts, though necessary to monitor, have been occurring over the past year with very little support. The difference is that Trump has won - a shift from the general anticipation of a harris win. I think an additional ‘triggering ‘ event is necessary to actually mobilize the mob.
***
The DoJ dropping federal prosecution cases against Trump has removed one red line for potential violence triggering action. State charges are still in place.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
Wall Street’s main indexes reached record highs on Wednesday after former president Donald Trump defeated Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election.
The Dow Jones jumped 2.82 percent to an all-time record of 43,499, while the S&P 500 climbed 1.62 percent to 5,887 and the Nasdaq rose 1.69 percent to 18,860, both setting all-time highs, Reuters reported. The dollar, U.S. Treasury yields, and Bitcoin also soared after Trump secured 277 electoral votes in the early hours of Wednesday, surpassing the 270 needed for victory.
The surge comes as Wall Street is anticipating pro-business initiatives, including tax cuts and deregulation, under a second Trump administration.
https://freebeacon.com/latest-news/wall-street-soars-to-record-highs-following-trumps-victory/
***
The Federal Reserve is expected to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points this week, according to all 111 economists polled by Reuters. The central bank raised interest rates to a 23-year high as it sought to bring down inflation under the Biden-Harris administration.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 26th
A sudden round of clarity hit democrats in their analysis of the tsunami unleashed by Trump on Tuesday. One of the biggest is the astonishment of what happen to 15 million democrat voters that helped vote biden in in 2020.
I think I can pin it down - vote fraud on a massive level.
This is explained further here at the link below.
***
All state results finally called, 312 - 226 EV landslide for Trump. Some 5 million votes ahead of harris on popular count.
***
The Justice Department is looking to wind down two federal criminal cases against President-elect Trump as he prepares to be sworn in for a second term in the White House — a decision that upholds long-standing policy that prevents Justice Department attorneys from prosecuting a sitting president.
OBSERVATION - This action in some ways surprised some - including me. Many thought Smith would try to sprint these cases to get closure before the inauguration. Those cases would have been closed once Trump was sworn in. Now it is damage control - given that Trump has the leverage even before the election against the DoJ and Smith.
Actions by state courts appear to remain on track. New York Attorney General Letitia James delivered a pointed speech on Wednesday, underscoring her commitment to pursuing accountability against former President Donald Trump and his associates in the wake of a substantial court ruling in a civil fraud case. Speaking forcefully, James emphasized her office’s dedication to upholding the rule of law amid what she described as “egregious” and “intentional” financial misconduct.
James sued Trump in September 2022, alleging he overstated the value of his real estate holdings in order to obtain loans. Real-estate experts told the Daily Caller News Foundation that New York Judge Arthur Engoron’s ruling greatly undervalued Mar-a-Lago, the Florida estate owned by Trump, which some considered to be worth more than $250 million.
https://thelibertydaily.com/letitia-james-vows-continue-her-lawfare-against-trump/
***
The Amish community in Pennsylvania contributed to Trump winning the state and voted in overwhelming numbers.
What sparked the voting rush? Government agents had stormed a local farm early in the year in a row over unpasteurised milk that left the Amish community absolutely enraged.
Donald Trump Jr tweeted at the time: ‘Imagine what law enforcement could accomplish if they went after members of elite paedophile rings rather than farmers selling to their neighbours??’
Pennsylvania’s traditionally private Amish community, which some estimate numbers around 100,000, then registered to vote in ‘unprecedented numbers’. Experts have said that the movement could won Mr Trump tens of thousands of new votes in the crucial swing state.
The Pennsylvania Department of Agriculture raided Amos Miller’s farm on January 4, sparking outrage among the state’s Amish population, a source familiar with the matter told The New York Post.
‘That was the impetus for them to say, ‘We need to participate,’’ the source said. ‘This is about neighbors helping neighbors.’
Raw milk is widely consumed by Amish people. And since the 2010s, influencers and even Gwyneth Paltrow have made it a staple for their breakfasts and morning coffees.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Kamala Harris’s concession speech was a blend of the obligatory humble platitudes but included its fair share of pointed, bitter undertones, making it hard to discern if she was truly conceding or rallying for a future fight.
In a typical concession speech, one might expect a call for unity or cooperation, but Kamala really leaned into divisive rhetoric, declaring her side’s values as the correct vision for the country.
OBSERVATION - Gladly, I’ll be able to close this category out in a few more months. Harris will fade into political oblivion and biden into the annuals as the worst president in history (at least Jimmy lived long enough to see the baton pass from him).
Illegal Immigration –
Authorities in a Texas border town has seen a surge in migrant crossings in anticipation of former President Donald Trump winning the election and enacting tougher immigration policies, the New York Post reported Thursday.
“They see that their free lunch is most likely coming to an end,” a Customs and Border Patrol source told the Post.
More than 300 migrants are turning themselves in to border agents each day in Maverick County in southwest Texas, according to multiple Border Patrol sources, the Post said.
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/migrants-texas-donald-trump/2024/10/31/id/1186250/
***
ACLU and affiliated organizations are making plans to try to thwart Trump’s plan for mass deportations.
Russia -
*****
Russian demands for peace talks include the current on the ground holdings being ceded to Russia.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-40s with scattered showers and rain in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 74 of 106 Shahed-type drones overnight and this morning
North Korean soldiers engaged in combat against Ukrainian forces for first time in Kursk, Oblast, a region in western Russia on Monday November 4th, a U.S. defense official tells Fox News
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Continued intense attacks along the front south of Pokrovsk.
Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Kreminna Balka village of Donetsk region of Ukraine
Outlook —
Talk increasingly turning to potential peace negotiations. Russian taking a hard line. It will depend on how much push back Trump gives putin. That is still months down the road.
Battle continues to grind on the ground and Russian seems to have an almost unlimited supply of drones to throw at Ukraine. This is probably due in part to the installation of their own construction facilities in Russia so as not to have to rely on Iran.
Europe / NATO General –
Chancellor Olaf Scholz has announced a vote of confidence, potentially paving the way for snap elections
Germany’s ‘traffic-light’ coalition has fallen apart, leaving Olaf Scholz at the helm of a minority government consisting solely of his Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the Greens. This follows the chancellor’s dismissal of Free Democratic Party (FDP) leader Christian Lindner as finance minister.
Scholz announced that the Bundestag will hold a vote of confidence on January 15. According to the constitution, if the chancellor fails to secure sufficient support, he may formally request that the president dissolve the 733-seat lower house and call a new election within 60 days. This could push Germany’s parliamentary elections from next autumn to March 2025.
OBSERVATION - NOTE RT is a Russian mouthpiece and propaganda outlet. However, the events in Germany are real. The hodge podge of coalitions has always been dicy and made worse by the leftward push by WEF affiliated globalist elements in Germany. The green energy push has decimated German industries and the flood of migrants have not made things any better.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Israel looking to expand operations in Gaza and Lebanon
- IAF hit Hezbollah buildings within the Beirut airport compound.
- Protests over the firing of Gallant continue.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Israeli Army Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi told the military to prepare to expand and deepen the “ground maneuver” yesterday. The Israeli Army issued evacuation orders for several Beirut suburbs, a common preparation for Israeli military action in Lebanon.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
The Israeli army says it has expanded its ongoing ground operation in the northern Gaza Strip to the town of Beit Lahiya. The Kfir Brigade began operations in Beit Lahiya in the past day
In parallel, in Jabalya, soldiers carried out operations, eliminating around 50 terrorists over the past day.
In Rafah, in southern Gaza, IDF troops killed terrorists and demolished terrorist infrastructure, the military noted.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
S Beirut hammered overnight, many buildings within the air ports enclosure struck, forcing some airlines to move their passenger jets to another part of the airfield.
The IAF struck over 110 terror-related sites linked to Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, of which approximately 20 sites were located in Lebanon’s Baalbek area and north of the Litani River.
Some 60 Hezbollah terrorists were eliminated in the attacks, the IDF added.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
IAF continues to strike border crossings between Syria and Lebanon to prevent transportation of supplies to Hezbollah.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Violent clashes between Palestinian fighters and Israeli security forces on several fronts in Jenin city
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Iran threatens Trump with assassination in addition to threatening Israel. The question remains just when will Iran launch their attack? I think the election of Trump has forced them to reevaluate their targets and timing, but it will occur else Iran will loose too much face.
Other factors in Iran’s decision is the ongoing collapse of its currency following trumps win. This will generate even more inflation and with it, more civil unrest against the mullahs. The drop is also likely related to the anticipation of the reestablishment of strict sanctions on Iranian oil like Trump imposed on his first term.
One other item, Trump has been VERY supportive of Israel striking Iranian nuclear facilities. Now with him as president elect, Netanyahu sees even a freer hand in dealing a blow - something that Iran may be trying to factor back into its attack calculations.
Currently, the OSINT community is not observing any indicators that would point to an imminent Iranian attack.
Hamas is being squeezed more and more in Gaza as Israel lets them ‘regroup’ in ares and then quickly surrounds them and begins to liquidate them. As noted above, N Gaza is the current focus but I expect it to move southward over the next few months.
Warning orders for ground forces to continue into S Lebanon are out there. The Hezbollah second line of fortified villages is the next target. If anyone has seen the deviation that Israel has leveled on Hezbollah supporting villages it is incredible. Chasing hill tops, Hezbollah dug extensive tunnel/bunker networks beneath these villages and when Israel blows these tunnels up, most of the village goes with it. There is one sector of the border where this has’t occurred - it is where villagers resisted and prevented Hezbollah from doing the same to them. Those villages are intact and largely left alone by the IDF.
Any kind of peace talks have fallen apart - thanks to our State dept - so I don’t see much happening there.
Iran –
The regime in Iran released a new threatening video in which they vow to eliminate President Trump
***
Iran’s already ailing national currency cratered after Donald Trump’s election victory, heralding tough times for Tehran’s economy
The Iranian rial traded at 703,000 to 1 American dollar early Wednesday, an all-time low, before settling at 696,150 to a single dollar, according to the Associated Press. The steep drop signals fears in Iran that Trump will enter office prepared to level harsh new economic sanctions on the country—and enforce active ones—as punishment for its yearlong war on Israel.
As the Iranian rial tanked, the American stock market surged
Thanks Godzilla
CW2 / Domestic violence - HIGH THREAT - up dated Nov 5, 2024
Maintaining higher status in the face of a Trump victory
Police in Seattle continue aggressive patrolling to deter any potential Antifa ‘flash’ riots.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Oct 20, 2024
In a report reviewed exclusively by Breitbart Texas, human intelligence developed by frontline Border Patrol intelligence officers reveals the possibility of a formal covert operation being conducted by the Maduro regime. The operation is designed to infiltrate the United States using released inmates and pairing them with Venezuelan intelligence operatives to “neutralize” human targets within the United States.
“This is not the first report we have developed related to Venezuelan prison releases from sources we have interviewed,” the source explained. “This is alarming, considering we have a new administration entering office in January.”
“The report’s timing raises more questions as the Maduro regime may fear some Venezuelans may trade information to avoid removal,” the source emphasized. “It certainly merits more investigation,”
OBSERVATION - Not surprising that Maduro has hit squads organized to silence Venezuelans in the US and raises concerns over the whole of the Venezuelans that have come into the country.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
Buried beneath the election and related, the Federal Reserve cut its key interest rate Thursday by a quarter-point in response to the steady decline in the once-high inflation that had angered Americans and helped drive Donald Trump’s presidential election victory this week.
The rate cut follows a larger half-point reduction in September, and it reflects the Fed’s renewed focus on supporting the job market as well as fighting inflation, which now barely exceeds the central bank’s 2% target.
OBSERVATION - This cut was expected. 1/4 point won’t do much in the short term. Cuts in regulation by a Trump administration will do far more for the economy.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 26th
The Manhattan judge who oversaw Donald Trump’s hush-money criminal trial is expected to announce next week if the now-president-elect’s historic felony conviction will still stand.
Manhattan Supreme Court Justice Juan Merchan had already delayed sentencing by more than four months to come after the election — and gave himself until next Tuesday to decide if the conviction should be tossed.
Trump’s overwhelming election win will now further embolden his legal team “to make sure that sentencing never happens,” CNN chief legal affairs correspondent Paula Reid noted late Wednesday.
OBSERVATION - Noted yesterday, his rear end is flapping in the wind and the blowback should throw him off the bench and strip his legal creds. He realizes he will no longer have a corrupt DoJ watching his back.
***
Finger pointing in the devastating loss to Trump has quickly shifted into pulling out the knives. Democrat pundits have been attacking traditional democrat constituents (servants) for voting for trump, doubling and tripling down on the same rhetoric and tactics that has been shown to have been one of the reasons they left the party for Trump.
***
Trump’s lawyer, Mike Davis, warns New York Attorney General Letitia James that if she continues with “lawfare” against the president-elect, “we will put your fat*ss in prison.”
OBSERVATION - Davis’ statement brought a gasp from some marginal MAGA pundits, even thinking that Davis is a democrat plant. James’ case will be demolished on appeal but she continues to threaten more lawsuits. Davis is a pit bull and is high on some tickets to be the next AG.
***
Both the clintons and 0bamas have called for grace and unity in the face of the landslide loss. Those cries are generally falling on deaf ears (and rightfully so) given the very vitriolic attacks on trump supporters the two have levied not only over the past few months, but multiple years.
***
Democrats continue to inadvertently demonstrate that 2020 was stolen with their continued bleats about what happened to the 15 million voters that were apparently ‘lost’ between 2020 and 2024.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Harris and biden are quickly fading into the background following the election.
Biden has invited Trump to the WH as per tradition.
Illegal Immigration –
Mixed signals over the earlier reported illegal surge trying to get in before Trump is sworn in. Now there are some reports that the surge is breaking down and may not be as large given the mandate Trump earned from the election landslide.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-40s with scattered showers and rain in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russian launched an 8 hour drone/missile attack on Kyiv and Odesa overnight. The Ukrainian Air Force reports shooting down:
0/1 Iskander-M ballistic missile
4/4 Kh-59/69 cruise missiles
88/92 Shahed drones (62 by regular air defense, 26 by electronic warfare)
Overnight, Ukrainian drones attacked the Saratov cracking refinery which is engaged in the processing of oil and other hydrocarbons. There is no information yet on the scale of the damage.
Russian daily losses hit a short term high of over 1500+ / day yesterday as it presses attacks throughout the Donbas region.
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
Russian Ministry of Defense reports it has launched new offensive in Kursk region. Little info as yet to confirm.
Outlook —
Prospects of peace talks, combined with the coming onset of winter and mud season continue to be the main drivers of Russian offensive actions throughout the Donbas region. Russian losses continue at a high rate. This past spring/early summer, Russian losses were roughly 1000-1200 / day. Over the past few months they have gone up to 1300 - 1500 per day.
Though rumored, no solid evidence of NK forces activity participating in combat in the Kursk region. The evidence is that they are likely there, but are probably getting acclimated to the conditions and conducting exercises in preparation to be integrated into Russian operations. Rumors also suggest that the NK new exposure to the internet has resulted in a flood of porn being viewed. Who knows how that will affect morale.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Turkish and Iranian mobs attack Israelis in Amsterdam, hundreds hurt.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Israeli army: We monitored the launch of 50 rockets from Lebanon towards Haifa Bay
IDF continues to press northward.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Israel air strikes continue to hit border crossing areas between Lebanon and Syria.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Houthi Supreme Leader Abdulmalik al Houthi stated on November 7 that the reelection of former US President Donald Trump does not impact the Houthis’ campaign against shipping or Israel. Abdulmalik said that Houthi fighters will continue to attack merchant vessels, US and Royal (UK) Navy vessels transiting through the Red Sea, and Israel itself.
***
Reports that Iran has managed to transfer hundreds of missiles and drones to its militias in Iraq. Iraq has stated that they will prevent Iraq from being a base from which Iran will attack Israel.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Overnight, mobs of turks and iranians staged planned attacks on Jews leaving a soccer match involving an Israeli team in Amsterdam. Gangs were hiding in alleys in groups of a dozen or more. Dozens were hurt and 7 are currently missing (potential kidnapping). Hundreds of Jews were being hunted down and even attacked in the hotels they were staying in. Video footage by one of the attackers indicates that at least one individual was intentionally struck by a vehicle.
An Israeli witness stated that it took Amsterdam police 45-60 minutes to arrive at the scene after the attacks began. Police eventually intervened, with a spokesperson confirming the arrest of dozens involved in the riot.
Israeli Ambassador to the United Nations Danny Danon referred to the antisemitic riot as a “Pogrom,” a term referencing violent mob attacks orchestrated for the express purpose of targeting Jews.
Prime minister Netanyahu initially ordered two rescue planes to evacuate Jews from Amsterdam. Dutch govt initially blocked their landing in country.
The Prime Minister’s Office issued a statement concerning the canceling of the military mission to the Netherlands: “In light of the situation, and in accordance with the recommendation of the professionals, it was decided that it is not necessary to send a professional rescue mission to the Netherlands. Instead, the effort will be focused on providing civil aviation solutions for the return of our citizens.”
Dutch Prime Minister: Shocked by the anti-Semitic attacks in Amsterdam, the perpetrators will be prosecuted
***
Massive heavylifting from Lakenheath (UK) to Azraq (Jordan) this week and overnight 4 USAF tankers probably dragging 12~ F15s to Azraq.
Israeli Sources are claiming that a squadron of F-15E fighters with the U.S. Air Force, were “Hastily Deployed” from the U.K. to the middle east this morning, after preparations for a possible imminent attack against Israel were observed inside Iran.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
More strategic positioning of US assets into the immediate middle east region has caught my eye. This force build up now appears to be larger than any that occurred before the two previous Iranian attacks on Israel. The fighter jets could be called on to take down any large drone wave(s) of an attack. They also give flexibility to strike back against Iran should significant US interests get attacked. It is unlikely that they would join any Israeli attack.
Iran for its part, has rigged for silent running. There are still “leaked” intelligence reports of Iranian missile movements and other preparations. It still appears that Iran will risk an attack, but how big and how soon is the persistent intelligence priority requirement. Available evidence suggests they will fire more missiles somewhere between 400-1000 in combination with Resistance forces in Iraq, Syria and Yemen contributing. Drones also appear to be a main component again, hence the significant fighter buildup.
Hezbollah continues to fight but suffers from grown losses and attrition. One tactic they have employed is the pre-registering of mortar and rocket fire on approaches to towns being defended in S Lebanon in an effort to block Israeli advances. These zones are also covered by lightly armed Hezbollah elements which pull back as Israel maneuvers forward to avoid being decisively engaged.
IDF continues to reduce Hamas and the like in N Gaza as they attempt to reform. They have converted much of the remaining civilian buildings and infrastructure into military sites and mixed in with the civilian residents. The tactic hasn’t stopped Israel from striking groups of terrorists and many still surrender.
Pretty much lather, rinse and repeat.
Final note - Moslem infested Europe is potentially pivoting to a region potentially lethally hostile towards Jews. In the major nations like Britain and France, radical moslems have pretty much the run of the country and in smaller nations like the Netherlands, even greater influence that piggy backs on the basic anti-semitism of the nations. Europe shows no backbone to stand up to the moslem takeover of their nations and culture, so Jews have very few choices to flee - the US or Israel. Actions in Amsterdam overnight will only encourage more arab violence against Jews in the future.
Iran –
Though still there, Iran seems to have toned down some of its anti-US rhetoric for the moment.
Iraq -
See “ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” above
Syria -
Syrian Channels are reporting a significant deployment of U.S. Military assets to bases in Northeastern Syria, with at least 6 C-17 and C-130 military transports having landed at both Kharab al-Jir Airbase and the Rumalyn Landing Zone in the last 48 Hours. The aircraft are said to have contained air defense systems, American personnel, and other military equipment.
These bases are primarily anti-ISIS operational forward bases but likely are being beefed up with a possible Iranian and Iranian backed militias attack
Misc of Note –
The explosion that was the Trump landslide has for the moment cleared the field of immediate threats.
1 It stripped a potential claim that Trump ‘stole’ the election.
2 It has the DoJ and possibly state cases against trump being dropped
3 Created meltdowns of epic proportions from harris supporters in the media, hollywood and else where.
4. Sucked enthusiasm for rioting out of the left for the moment.
Where does this leave us? Critical threats continue
1. Assassination threats from internal leftists as well as foreign agents
2. Unplugging the economy and triggering a massive recession
3 Entrenchment of the deep state in govt agencies that will result in a titanic fight to root them out.
4. Actions by illegals to the mass deportations about to begin next year.
IMHO, we have a pause for the moment. In spite of all the unity talk now springing up from the left, its clear that biden et all is rushing to set up as many booby traps across many sectors as possible to deny Trump’s agenda. The left rebuilding its ‘nazi’ and facist mantra.
Two key threat windows are still on the horizon
1 The lead up to the certification of the vote - Jan 6
2 The lead up to the inauguration on Jan 20.
Keep alert and your powder dry. Even after the inauguration thing have the potential to get very dicy.